1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The report mentions the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures, but no specific price analysis data is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions the rebar basis (active contract), but no specific analysis data is provided [16][17] Important Market Information - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting on March 26, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions [18] Supply - side Situation - The report mentions the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and rebar production, but no specific analysis data is provided [19][23] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the current value of the Lange Iron and Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 53.4, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% [28] Fundamental Analysis - In March 2026, the PMI of the steel industry was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months. It is expected that in April, the steel industry will maintain a stable and positive operation, with market demand recovering and steel mill production increasing steadily. Raw material and steel prices still have room to rise [35] - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 13,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 16,034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; steel output was 22,119 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6][36] - In February 2026, China exported 783,800 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with an export average price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 1,559,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, with an export average price of 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36,900 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, with an import average price of 1,740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel imports were 82,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, with an import average price of 1,769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [36] - In February 2026, global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; from January to February 2026, global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [6][36] - In mid - March, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, a growth of 0.6%; a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, a growth of 5.9% [6][37] 后市展望 - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] Operation Strategy - Single - side: Short - term long positions on dips within the range - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. The shortage of copper resources due to tight overseas copper mines and difficult shipments still supports the copper price. The substitution of recycled copper has declined, and the production of electrolytic copper has increased. The demand for copper products has started to pick up, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. However, the Shanghai copper is under pressure from overseas imports, and its support is somewhat weak [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In terms of futures, Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. In terms of spot, the spot premium in East China was - 50 yuan/ton, and in South China was 95 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the LME official price was 12,220 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 83 US dollars/ton [1][4]. 2. Supply - side - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 69.22 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [1][7]. 3. Demand - side - After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the start - up of copper products has increased. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year [1]. 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 221,300 tons, a decrease of 9,710 tons from the previous period. As of March 30, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 362,400 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,100 short tons, a decrease of 798 short tons from the previous period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market showed a volatile and weak pattern. Although the geopolitical conflict pushed up the oil price, which had a cost - side impact on black commodities, the industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had a situation of "decreasing supply and stable demand", with a slight contraction in production, a gentle recovery in demand, and a slowdown in inventory reduction speed. There were increasing doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season [2]. - In the short term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break through the volatile range. The strong cost and weak demand create a balance between long and short positions, and the price is likely to maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If the demand remains weak and the supply continues to grow, the accumulated inventory pressure in the market may drive the price center to move down, and the market still faces certain pressure risks. Attention should be paid to the intensity and sustainability of demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was volatile and weak. Geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, but industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had "decreasing supply and stable demand", with production slightly contracting, demand recovering gently, and inventory reduction slowing down. Doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season increased [2]. - In the short - term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break the volatile range. Strong cost and weak demand create a balance. The price is likely to have a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If demand is weak and supply grows, inventory pressure may drive the price down. Monitor demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily average hot metal output of steel mills was 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. Rebar mill inventory was 219.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.04 million tons or - 7.21%. Rebar social inventory was 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or - 1.60%. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 83.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons or - 1.31%. Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or - 1.84% [4]. - **Market Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to the futures market (such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, etc.), the spot market (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis), and fundamental data (such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, and seasonal analysis of inventory) [6][13][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to hit new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a relatively solid cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventories in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices decline due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,760 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,228 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 185,270 lots, down 2,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 55,138 lots, up 900 lots; the LME copper inventory is 360,250 tons, up 425 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 62,675 tons, up 9,975 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 230,971 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 588,919 short tons, down 796 short tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,195 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,315 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) price for bonded warehouses is 68.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 70.86 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 US dollars per thousand tons, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,590 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,290 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. US Vice - President Vance says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon after handling current affairs. Vance believes the US has achieved all military goals, and the military operation has not ended because President Trump wants to ensure Iran completely loses the ability to threaten the US [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The world automobile sales volume in February 2026 reached 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The world automobile sales volume from January to February 2026 reached 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the growth of the world auto market sales volume slowed down significantly from January to February 2026. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well in recent years, and its share has continued to increase. From 2020 to 2023, China's share in the world market increased to 33.8%, in 2024 it reached 34.2%, in 2025 it reached 35.4%, and in 2026 it reached 29.7%, a significant decline compared with 2025. The overseas environment for self - owned brands going global is good, with many countries in a period of low penetration rate and large market space. The speed determines the effect. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume increased by 0.1%, among which the Chinese automobile sales volume decreased by 9%, the Indian automobile market sales volume increased by 11%, the Thai automobile market increased by 64%, the Russian market sales volume decreased by 7%, and some South American markets performed well. The potential of Chinese car companies in many other underdeveloped small countries is still huge [2]. - The China Association for Quality and Safety Promotion of Consumer Goods launched the "2026 Series of Actions to Improve the Quality and Safety of Online - sold Products", aiming to guide the industry out of "involution - style" competition and better protect the quality of online - sold products and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. After selection, a total of 11 major categories and 41 types of products were determined for monitoring, including household appliances, electronic appliances, electric bicycles, lithium batteries, etc. [2]. - The European Federation for Transport and Environment released a report stating that affected by the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the fuel cost of the global shipping industry has risen significantly, which not only increases the industry's operating pressure but also provides an opportunity to accelerate energy transformation. The report shows that since February 28, the cumulative additional fuel cost of the global shipping industry has exceeded 4.6 billion euros [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the current steel plate shows a narrow sideways oscillation, with no obvious upward or downward drive, and the current plate follows the price fluctuations of furnace materials. The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering, and enterprises are more willing to produce hot-rolled coils than rebar. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the downstream industries are gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials is increasing, but the increase rate is gradually slowing down. The downstream manufacturing industry is promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles is gradually increasing. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated. The plate is still treated as a range oscillation. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction strength brought by the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons, as well as the drag on the demand side caused by the high global energy prices and the interruption of some raw material supply chains due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [9][40]. - For iron ore, the current plate is mainly affected by three factors: the negotiation between Chinese and Australian miners, overseas cyclone weather, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In terms of the Sino-Australian negotiation, the Jinbuba powder sold to China was selected as the key restricted product, and the Newman powder was also affected by the ban, which intensified the market shortage. If the ban on BHP's Jinbuba powder and Newman powder is lifted later, the release of the frozen inventory will have a downward impact on the current price. In terms of the geopolitical conflict, the diesel supply in Australia is tight, and the soaring diesel price will increase the unit cost of major iron ore producers in the Pilbara region. The high energy cost erodes the profits of mining enterprises and increases the risk of unexpected supply interruptions. In terms of climate, the tropical cyclone "Narelle" closed the ports this week, and the impact weakened later. Overall, the short-term fundamentals of iron ore lack driving force, and external news has increased the disturbance to the plate. Attention should be paid to the negotiation situation between Chinese and Australian miners, as well as the impact of fuel costs on mining and transportation costs after the energy price rises due to the geopolitical conflict [10][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: There was a regional freight adjustment in the steel logistics market in the southwest region. The direct delivery and warehouse self-pickup freight of some steel mills in Sichuan and Chongqing increased slightly, with a rise of 4% - 11%, while the overall situation in Yunnan and Guizhou was stable. An Australian ore mining company warned that due to the limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operation of the Australian mining industry began to be affected, forcing the iron ore mining company to reduce some business activities. Affected by the tropical cyclone "Narelle", several ports in Western Australia were closed. The general manager of Navigate Commodities said that the cyclone did not damage the important port infrastructure in Western Australia, but the supply and replenishment plan of marine fuel was still a major concern for iron ore transporters. The situation in the Iran war continued to deteriorate, leading to energy supply interruptions, intensifying fuel rationing, and pushing up transportation costs. The commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project at Liaoning Port (Dalian Port) and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore from SimFer were held. The iron ore on this ship was all from the Simandou project. The Indian steel ministry sought help from the petroleum ministry to ensure that steel mills would not be affected by the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas. India, the world's second-largest crude steel producer, was facing the most serious liquefied petroleum gas supply crisis in decades due to the Iran war [6]. - Fundamental Situation: The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the steel mills' demand is gradually recovering. The inflection point of steel inventory reduction has appeared. The global iron ore shipment has increased slightly, and the freight rate has decreased slightly. The steel mills' iron ore inventory is at a low level, while the port inventory is at a high level. The hot metal output and the steel mills' daily iron ore consumption have increased simultaneously. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has widened slightly [7][11]. 3.2 Multi-Empty Focus - Analysis of Multi-Empty Factors for Finished Products: The positive factors include the strong furnace material prices providing cost support and the entry into the traditional peak demand seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", with the inflection point of steel inventory appearing. The negative factors include the real estate not yet stabilizing and the limited expected increase in demand, as well as the high energy prices, the decline in the overseas interest rate cut expectation, and the rising stagflation expectation [14]. - Analysis of Multi-Empty Factors for Iron Ore: The positive factors include the increase in the marginal cost of future mining and transportation due to the rising energy prices caused by the geopolitical conflict, the increase in hot metal output and the high daily iron ore consumption, and the disturbance of the shipping rhythm by overseas weather factors. The negative factors include the high port inventory and the expected release of frozen inventory due to the easing of the negotiation between Chinese and Australian mines [16]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Output: As of the week of March 27, the actual output of rebar in construction steel enterprises was 197,870 tons, a decrease of 5460 tons compared with the previous week; the actual output of hot-rolled coils was 305,610 tons, an increase of 5400 tons compared with the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.63%, an increase of 1.1% compared with the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous week [18]. - Production Profit: As of March 26, the blast furnace production profit of rebar in sample enterprises was 57 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit of hot-rolled coils was 14 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace production cost of rebar was 3422 yuan/ton [23]. - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the consumption of rebar was 225,370 tons, an increase of 17,280 tons compared with the previous week. After the festival, the downstream industries were gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials was increasing, but the increase rate was gradually slowing down. The consumption of hot-rolled coils was 313,630 tons, an increase of 3120 tons compared with the previous week. The consumption of cold-rolled coils was 91,210 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output of cold-rolled coils was 89,200 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with the previous week. The downstream manufacturing industry was promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles was gradually increasing [24]. - Real Estate Demand: From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 96.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. At the end of February, the unsold commercial housing area was 799.98 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [26]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the in-plant inventory of rebar was 219,160 tons, a decrease of 17,040 tons compared with the previous week, and the social inventory in 35 cities was 672,750 tons, a decrease of 10,460 tons compared with the previous week. The in-plant inventory of hot-rolled coils was 83,850 tons, a decrease of 1110 tons compared with the previous week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 369,420 tons, a decrease of 6910 tons compared with the previous week. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated [28]. - Iron Ore Shipment and Freight Rate: As of the week of March 20, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.1443 million tons, an increase of 95,500 tons compared with the previous week. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.5595 million tons, an increase of 95,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total non-mainstream shipment was 584,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous week. As of March 26, the freight price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao Port by Capesize vessels was 10.63 US dollars/ton, which decreased slightly compared with the previous period but was still higher than that at the beginning of the year [32]. - Iron Ore Inventory: As of the week of March 20, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 2.2716 million tons, an increase of 56,600 tons compared with the previous period; as of the week of March 27, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 17.00031 million tons, a decrease of 98,090 tons compared with the previous period; the daily port clearance volume was 313,170 tons, a decrease of 7800 tons compared with the previous period; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.97856 million tons, a decrease of 55,500 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory at 45 ports remained at a high level of 170 million tons, but the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill end was at a low level, and the overall supply chain did not show a serious surplus [34]. - Hot Metal Output and Iron Ore Consumption: As of March 27, the daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel enterprises was 231,090 tons, an increase of 2940 tons compared with the previous period; the daily average consumption of imported iron ore was 284,590 tons, an increase of 3440 tons compared with the previous period. After the Two Sessions, the hot metal output will gradually increase, driving the iron ore consumption to gradually increase [36]. - Spread between Hot-Rolled Coils and Rebar: As of March 26, the spread between the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coils was 177 yuan/ton, which increased compared with the previous week [38]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - For steel, the current steel plate shows a narrow sideways oscillation, with no obvious upward or downward drive, and the current plate follows the price fluctuations of furnace materials. The output of hot-rolled coils is increasing while that of rebar is decreasing. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering, and enterprises are more willing to produce hot-rolled coils than rebar. The production profit of hot-rolled coils is rising while that of rebar is falling. After the festival, the downstream industries are gradually resuming work and production, and the demand for building materials is increasing, but the increase rate is gradually slowing down. The downstream manufacturing industry is promoting the resumption of work and production, and the procurement demand for hot-rolled coils in industries such as home appliances and automobiles is gradually increasing. With the increase in demand, the inventory in factories and society has both decreased. During the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the steel inventory is expected to be reduced, and the pressure will be alleviated. The plate is still treated as a range oscillation. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction strength brought by the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons, as well as the drag on the demand side caused by the high global energy prices and the interruption of some raw material supply chains due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [40]. - For iron ore, the current plate is mainly affected by three factors: the negotiation between Chinese and Australian miners, overseas cyclone weather, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In terms of the Sino-Australian negotiation, the Jinbuba powder sold to China was selected as the key restricted product, and the Newman powder was also affected by the ban, which intensified the market shortage. If the ban on BHP's Jinbuba powder and Newman powder is lifted later, the release of the frozen inventory will have a downward impact on the current price. In terms of the geopolitical conflict, the diesel supply in Australia is tight, and the soaring diesel price will increase the unit cost of major iron ore producers in the Pilbara region. The high energy cost erodes the profits of mining enterprises and increases the risk of unexpected supply interruptions. In terms of climate, the tropical cyclone "Narelle" closed the ports this week, and the impact weakened later. Overall, the short-term fundamentals of iron ore lack driving force, and external news has increased the disturbance to the plate. Attention should be paid to the negotiation situation between Chinese and Australian miners, as well as the impact of fuel costs on mining and transportation costs after the energy price rises due to the geopolitical conflict [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals show a stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is sufficient, the theoretical smelting profit is good, and the production enthusiasm is high. The domestic operating capacity is approaching the "ceiling", and the supply will maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the aluminum processing industry is expected to continue to grow. The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and the inventory inflection point is expected to be confirmed. [7] - **Alumina**: The raw material supply from Guinea is stable, but the ore price remains firm due to shipping pressure, providing cost support. The domestic supply is in a relatively high state, and the demand from domestic electrolytic aluminum production is stable at a high level, while overseas demand may be gradually released, increasing export demand. [8] - **Cast Aluminum**: The high price of overseas scrap aluminum and freight costs have led to a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The production of cast aluminum plants is restricted by raw material supply and cost pressure. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the aluminum alloy consumption field is expected to improve, and there may be restocking demand. [10] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of March 27, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from March 20; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 3,254.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.39% from March 20. The alumina futures price was 2,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from March 20. The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 22,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from March 20. [13][17] - **Ratio and Spread**: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.27, a decrease of 0.57 from March 20. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was - 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan/ton from March 20; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 71,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,275 yuan/ton from March 20. [14][23] - **Inventory and Position**: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 555,917 lots, a decrease of 5.06% from March 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 40,656 lots from March 20. [20] - **Spot Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% from March 20; in Shanxi, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20; in Guiyang, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from March 20. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from March 20, and the spot discount was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. [27][32] 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 423,075 tons, a decrease of 2.23% from March 19; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 454,571 tons, an increase of 0.56% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,294,000 tons, a decrease of 0.38% from March 19. As of March 27, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 408,197 tons, an increase of 1.15% from March 20; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 272,825 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from March 19. [37] - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 24.23 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons month - on - month. In February 2026, the import volume of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a decrease of 11.95% month - on - month and an increase of 18.05% year - on - year. From January to February, the import volume of bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, an increase of 18.7% year - on - year. [40] - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, a decrease of 17.09% year - on - year; the export volume was 55.23 tons, a decrease of 15.26% year - on - year. [46] - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 15.18 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year - on - year. In February 2026, the alumina import volume was 1.81 million tons, a decrease of 30.49% month - on - month and an increase of 334.19% year - on - year; the export volume was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.05% month - on - month and a decrease of 28.57% year - on - year. From January to February, the cumulative alumina import was 441,400 tons, an increase of 468.96% year - on - year. [48][49] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 7.534 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the operating rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from last month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, an increase of 0.65% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative import was 390,400 tons, an increase of 7.97% year - on - year; the export volume in February was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to February was 23,300 tons. The global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons from January to January 2026. [52][56] - **Aluminum Products**: In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%; from January to February, the cumulative output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. [59][60] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In February 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The output of recycled aluminum alloy was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47%. [63] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 2.765 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year - on - year. In February 2026, the aluminum alloy import volume was 65,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.25%; the export volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. From January to February, the aluminum alloy import volume was 156,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.46%; the export volume was 37,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.33%. [65][66] - **Real Estate**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from last month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing construction area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99%. [69] - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. [72] 4. Option Market Analysis - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility. [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the copper market, stating that the Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low but ended the day higher. The shortage of copper resources due to overseas supply issues and low domestic inventories supports copper prices. Although the demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up during the peak season, the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals of Shanghai copper have improved, driving up the price. However, due to the ongoing war, the market is volatile, and the copper price is still under short - term upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is relatively low compared to previous years. Overseas copper resources are tight, and shipping is difficult due to the war, which supports copper prices. The price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has decreased. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the copper product sector's production has started to pick up. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and the feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased by 5.15% compared to last week. The Shanghai copper inventory was smoothly digested during the peak season [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, ending the day higher [1][4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China was 70 yuan/ton. On March 25, 2026, the LME official price was $12,234/ton, and the spot premium was - $99/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply - side Indicators - As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $69.22/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [8]. 3.4. Inventory Conditions - SHFE copper inventory was 246,400 tons, a decrease of 5,670 tons from the previous period. As of March 23, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 74,400 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 360,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,700 short tons, an increase of 461 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Views - The short - term trend of coking coal is strong, but the risks of high - level fluctuations and pullbacks are significantly increasing. Gold can be considered for short - selling after a rebound. The methanol market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term. For other products, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on supply, demand, and technical aspects [3][11][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - The main contract of coking coal hit the daily limit, reaching 1,289.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of about 11% and a cumulative increase of over 26%, hitting a new high in 2026. The core drivers of the limit - up are the energy substitution expectation pushed by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increase in domestic steel mill production and iron - water output, and the obvious increase in positions on the capital side. The suppression and risk points include high total inventory, limited steel mill profits, and over - heated sentiment after the limit - up. Operationally, it is recommended to be cautious near the integer - level resistance, set stop - losses and take - profits, and pay attention to geopolitical easing, restocking rhythm, and inventory data [3] Stock Index Futures - The market opened lower and fluctuated downwards on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 3,800 points. Technically, it is in an accelerated decline phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Gold - The red - green line on the daily chart of gold has turned bearish. Gold has been in a weak adjustment throughout the day, and it can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [11] Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - to - long - term. The demand side may see an increase in steel mill production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, when approaching the previous high, long - position holders should pay attention to protecting profits [13][14] Glass - The daily melting has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper resistance is broken [18] Methanol - The rising market is driven by multiple positive factors such as the unexpected restart of port MTO plants, a sharp decrease in import arrivals, and a surge in foreign natural gas prices. The spot market has followed the increase actively, and the price difference between ports and the inland has widened rapidly. It is expected that the strong market will continue in the short term [21] Pulp - The current futures price of pulp has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited, attracting some enterprise customers to take over. There is some bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai real - estate policy relaxation on February 25, 2026, has effectively activated demand, with the second - hand housing transaction volume increasing and the transaction area exceeding that of the previous three rounds of policy stimuli. However, the market remains cold overall during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, and there may be a callback after the sales peak due to "peak season overdraft" [1][2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai New Policy Effect Observation - **Longitudinal Comparison of Shanghai's Historical Data**: From February 26 to March 19, 2026, the second - hand housing transaction data showed a 5% decline compared to the same period in 2025 but a 42% significant increase compared to 2024. The weekly transaction area has been increasing, with a 14% week - on - week growth in the latest week and 33% in the previous week. Compared with the same lunar period last year, Shanghai's sales from the 25th day of the first lunar month to the first day of the second lunar month increased by 10%, while Beijing and Shenzhen had a 1% decline and 2% increase respectively [1]. - **Comparison of Four Rounds of Policy Stimuli since 2024**: After the February 2026 policy, the third - week average daily transaction area reached 83,000 square meters, higher than the 74,000 - 79,000 square meters in the third week of the two 2024 policies, about 5% - 12% better. After excluding the Spring Festival impact, the average daily transaction area in the third week increased by 50% compared to the week before the policy, basically the same as in May 2024 (49%) and lower than in September 2024 (55%). Compared with two weeks before the policy, the average daily transaction area increased by 29%, lower than the two 2024 rounds (133% and 48%) [2]. - **Comparison with Beijing and Shenzhen without Policy**: Comparing February 26 - March 19, 2026, with February 7 - 28, 2025 (both 22 days after the Spring Festival), Shanghai's transaction volume increased by 20% year - on - year, while Beijing and Shenzhen had 4% and - 4% year - on - year changes respectively [2]. - **Sustained Heat Concerns**: After the policy in 2024, the weekly transaction volume reached its peak after 4 and 10 weeks of fluctuating growth respectively, and then declined. This time, after the policy was introduced during the "Golden March and Silver April" sales peak, there may be a callback due to "peak season overdraft" [3]. 3.2 Housing Price Observation - From March 9 - 13, the second - hand housing listing prices in first - tier cities were divided. Shanghai's prices increased by 0.1% week - on - week, while Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Second - and third - tier cities also saw a 0.1% decline. Compared with the end of 2025, after rising and then falling, the second - hand housing listing prices in all cities decreased by 1% - 3%, with first - tier cities down 1.8%, second - tier cities down 2.9%, and third - tier cities down 1.5% [4]. 3.3 Monthly Trend - Although it is the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the overall market remains cold. From March 1 - 19, the second - hand housing transaction area decreased by 12% year - on - year, with a larger decline than in January - February. New housing continued the downward trend from January - February, with a 12% decline from March 1 - 19 [6]. - In terms of structure, from March 1 - 19, most cities' second - hand housing transaction areas decreased year - on - year, with relatively high declines in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Dalian. In the new housing market, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Xiamen's transaction areas increased year - on - year, while Shenzhen and some second - and third - tier cities had large declines [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The firm cost support from raw materials and the inventory reduction during the traditional peak season are positive factors, while limited demand growth, high energy prices, and reduced overseas interest - rate cut expectations are negative factors [9][39] - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. The improvement in fundamentals, including increased global shipments, inventory replenishment by steel mills, and rising iron - water production, boosts the price. However, high port inventories are a potential negative factor [10][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: Multiple events influence the market, such as steel price increases in Hubei, changes in steel billet and iron ore inventories, national policies on industry development, and international trade policies [6] - **Fundamental Overview**: Steel production capacity utilization is recovering, with increased output of rebar and hot - rolled coils. Blast - furnace profits for finished products have slightly declined. After the Spring Festival, steel mill demand has gradually recovered [8] - **Main Views**: Rebar demand related to real estate is under pressure. The inflection point of steel inventory reduction has emerged. Global iron ore shipments have slightly increased, and freight rates have slightly decreased. Steel mills have replenished iron ore, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Iron - water production and the daily consumption of iron ore by steel mills have increased [11] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Finished Products**: Positive factors include strong raw material prices and the arrival of the traditional peak season with an inventory inflection point. Negative factors are limited demand growth, high energy prices, and reduced overseas interest - rate cut expectations [14] - **Iron Ore**: Positive factors are rising energy prices increasing transportation costs, rising iron - water production and consumption, and steel mills' inventory replenishment. The negative factor is high port inventories [16] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of March 20, rebar output was 203.33 million tons (up 8.03 million tons week - on - week), hot - rolled coil output was 300.21 million tons (up 4.95 million tons week - on - week). The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.53% (up 2.61% week - on - week), and the independent electric - arc furnace capacity utilization rate was 56.57% (up 6.13% week - on - week) [18] - **Profit**: As of March 19, the blast - furnace production profit of rebar was 63 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton. The electric - arc furnace production cost of rebar was 3422 yuan/ton [20] - **Demand**: As of March 20, rebar consumption was 208.09 million tons (up 78.58 million tons week - on - week), hot - rolled coil consumption was 310.51 million tons (up 15.15 million tons week - on - week), and cold - rolled consumption was 94.61 million tons (up 3.41 million tons week - on - week) [21] - **Real Estate Impact**: From January to February 2026, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 11.7% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [24] - **Inventory**: As of March 20, rebar inventory in steel mills decreased by 3.42 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.34 million tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.32 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 5.98 million tons [26] - **Iron Ore Shipment and Freight**: As of March 13, global iron ore shipments were 3048.8 million tons (up 151 million tons week - on - week). The freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao decreased slightly but was still higher than at the beginning of the year [30] - **Iron Ore Inventory and Consumption**: As of March 20, 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 89.12 million tons, and the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel enterprises increased by 9.2 million tons [32][34] - **Rebar - Hot - Rolled Coil Spread**: As of March 20, the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 167 yuan/ton, up from the previous week [36] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Steel**: The market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction during the peak season and the impact of the Middle - East situation on overseas export demand [39] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, boosting the price. Attention should be paid to the restocking momentum from demand recovery and the impact of fuel costs on transportation costs [42]