Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3210 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Core view: The black metal market oscillated weakly today, and steel prices declined. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, with the growth rate of rebar output slowing down and hot-rolled coil turning to production increase. It is expected that the molten iron output will rebound this week. The resumption of work at downstream construction sites and the availability of funds continued to improve this week, leading to an increase in the apparent demand for building materials and a reduction in rebar inventory. However, the apparent demand is still declining year-on-year, and the recovery speed has slowed down. Recently, the export orders have been good, resulting in an improvement in the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils and an accelerated reduction in inventory, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran has intensified recently, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. Recently, there has been a rumor that the import of Newman powder is blocked, and the iron ore price is supported. Therefore, the short-term steel price will maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend affected by overseas and raw materials. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain an oscillating trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to February 2026, China's air conditioner output was 40.118 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The national refrigerator output was 16.643 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The national washing machine output was 18.579 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. The national color TV output was 24.678 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [8] - This week, the small-sample output of rebar was 2.0333 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 80,300 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 2.0809 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 312,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 34,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 13,400 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 47,600 tons. The output of hot-rolled coils this week was 3.0021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 49,500 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 3.1051 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 3.67% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 151,500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 43,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 59,800 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 103,000 tons [8][9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, price spreads, and profit margins [14][16][19]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market trend: Steel prices maintained a volatile trend with low overall volatility, and spot trading volume was generally weak. The prices were basically stable compared to Friday, with mainly rigid demand purchasing at low prices [5] - Production and inventory: Last week, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline this week. Downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventory is still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar. Hot-rolled coil has started to reduce inventory this week [5] - Demand and supply: The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved recently, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Export orders for hot-rolled coil have been good recently, improving its supply and demand situation, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand [5] - Cost factors: Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased recently, leading to continuous increases in energy prices and shipping freight rates. If the frictions intensify, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, news indicated that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent supply of iron ore [5] - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Group 3: Important Information - National fixed asset investment from January to February 2026 increased by 1.8% year-on-year [8] - From January to February, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 535.372 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. Among them, the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 371.347 million square meters, a decrease of 11.9%. The new construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%. Among them, the new construction area of residential buildings was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The completed area was 63.2 million square meters, a decrease of 27.9%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 46.25 million square meters, a decrease of 26.9% [8][9] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the basis, price differences, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, as well as the cash profits and cost differences of different steel products [14][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a transition from the off - season to the peak season, with supply - demand contradictions not fully resolved. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and the core of the market lies in the strength of demand recovery and inventory depletion rhythm. Attention should be paid to terminal construction start - up rhythm, inventory depletion speed, and raw material price trends [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Iron - water output was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.00%. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.9526 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34%. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13% [11] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 1.7681 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.18% and a week - on - week increase of 80.00%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a week - on - week increase of 4.90%. Plate demand was more resilient than long - product demand [11] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 403,800 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,700 tons (+13.30%). Both inventories were at relatively high levels [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, basis, and price differentials of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and differentials of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [22][24][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Multiple charts show the profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils in the futures market, as well as the profit and inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from different sources and in different regions [78][80][91] 3.4. Cost Side - Multiple charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore futures and coke futures, iron - water and crude - steel daily output, billet prices, scrap prices, and scrap consumption [111][114][117] 3.5. Supply Side - Multiple charts show the production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year production changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils [135][137][140] 3.6. Demand and Import - Export - Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the production and export of home appliances, and the import and export volume of steel products [147][150][154]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel market supply and demand are still in the post - holiday recovery stage. The production and sales of the five major steel products have increased, and the total inventory has continued to accumulate seasonally with a significantly slower growth rate. The overall level is higher than the same period last year. The price rebound of finished products is mainly driven by the enhanced expectation of rising raw material costs, and the basis has weakened significantly. The upper limit should continue to pay attention to the valley - electricity cost pressure (3167). The trading strategy is to expect the market to be in a state of shock [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures - **Prices and Changes**: On March 12, 2026, RB2605 was at 3120 (up 5 from March 11), RB2610 at 3149 (up 5), RB2701 at 3174 (up 4); HC2605 at 3275 (up 6), HC2610 at 3284 (up 6), HC2701 at 3299 (up 7). Night - time trading: RB2605 closed at 3138, RB2610 at 3160, HC2605 at 3293, HC2610 at 3300. The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 22 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 155 yuan for the May contract and 140 yuan for the October contract [1][2] - **Profit and Ratio**: The disk profit of 05 - contract rebar was - 262 (down 12), 10 - contract was - 219 (down 12), 01 - contract was - 208 (down 15); 05 - contract hot - rolled coil was - 157 (down 11), 10 - contract was - 134 (down 11), 01 - contract was - 133 (down 12). RB05/I05 was 3.9 (down 0.03), RB10/I09 was 4.1 (down 0.04), RB01/I01 was 4.2 (down 0.05); HC05/I05 was 4.12 (down 0.03), HC10/I09 was 4.28 (down 0.04), HC01/I01 was 4.40 (down 0.04) [1] Spot - **Prices and Changes**: On March 12, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 (up 10), Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3260 (up 10). Other spot prices also had corresponding changes, such as Nanjing Xicheng rebar at 3330 (unchanged), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3190 (up 20) [1][2] - **Regional Price Differences**: Shanghai rebar - Beijing rebar was 80 (unchanged), Shanghai rebar - Jinan rebar was - 90 (up 10), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil - Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 70 (down 10), etc [1] - **Profit**: The profit of billet - rolling products was 20 (down 20), the profit of East China rebar was 29 (down 14), etc [1] Important Information - **Iron Ore Index**: On March 12, the Mysteel 62% Australian powder ore forward spot index was 110 US dollars/tonne, up 3.8 US dollars/tonne, with a monthly average of 104.56 US dollars/tonne [2] - **Construction Site Conditions**: As of March 11, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5% (up 19 percentage points month - on - month, down 5.2 percentage points year - on - year); the labor attendance rate was 43.9% (up 14.2 percentage points month - on - month, down 5.8 percentage points year - on - year); the fund availability rate was 42.8% (up 7.4 percentage points month - on - month, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year) [2] - **Market Transactions**: On March 12, the iron ore transactions at major ports nationwide were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders were 88,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [2] - **Steel Supply, Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.2097 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3%; the total inventory was 19.7489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%; the weekly consumption was 7.9808 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.4%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 55.2%, and that of plates increased by 3.6% [3] - **Coking Coal Mine Conditions**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 87.2%, a week - on - week increase of 4.8%. The daily average output of raw coal was 193,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 544,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,800 tons [3] Market Logic - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The steel market supply and demand are in the post - holiday recovery stage. The production and sales of the five major steel products have increased, and the total inventory has continued to accumulate seasonally with a slower growth rate. The overall level is higher than the same period last year. The output of hot - rolled coil has continued to decline due to relevant production - restriction arrangements during the Two Sessions, while consumption has recovered, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. The output of rebar has continued to rise, mainly from short - process enterprises, and the current inventory pressure is relatively limited with the recovery of demand [3] - **Price Drivers**: The recent price rebound of finished products is mainly driven by the enhanced expectation of rising raw material costs, and the basis has weakened significantly [3] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to expect the market to be in a state of shock [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, with both production and sales of the five major steel products increasing, and the total inventory continuing to accumulate seasonally, higher than the same period last year [3]. - Due to the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the production and consumption of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased; while rebar showed a pattern of simultaneous growth in production and sales, with relatively limited inventory pressure and a better supply - demand structure than hot - rolled coils [3]. - Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the chemical and other related commodity sectors are strong, and the black prices are rebounding. The expected increase in raw material costs is an important support for the recent rebound in steel prices [3]. - In the short term, before the demand is fully restored, the upper limit of rebar price should pay attention to the valley - electricity cost pressure (3138) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On March 9, 2026, RB2605 was at 3119, up 31 from March 6; RB2610 was at 3147, up 32; RB2701 was at 3174, up 33. The 05 - 10 spread was - 28, down 1; the 10 - 01 spread was - 27, down 1. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was - 251, down 10; the 10 - contract was - 208, down 6; the 01 - contract was - 199, down 9 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On March 9, 2026, HC2605 was at 3270, up 40 from March 6; HC2610 was at 3282, up 38; HC2701 was at 3291, up 28. The 05 - 10 spread was - 12, up 2; the 10 - 01 spread was - 9, up 10. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 150, down 1; the 10 - contract was - 123, unchanged; the 01 - contract was - 132, down 14 [1]. - **Night - Session Futures**: RB2605 closed at 3118, RB2610 at 3143, HC2605 at 3268, HC2610 at 3281. The rebar 5 - 10 spread was - 25 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread was - 13 yuan. The May - contract coil - to - rebar spread was 150 yuan, and the October - contract was 138 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On March 9, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan, up 30 from March 6; Nanjing Xicheng was 3340 yuan, up 20; Shandong Shiheng was 3300 yuan, up 10; Tangshan Tanggang was 3100 yuan, up 50. The cheapest delivery product was 3190 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: On March 9, 2026, Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan, up 40 from March 6; Lecong Rigang was 3270 yuan, up 30; Shanghai Rigang was 3260 yuan, up 30. The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot**: Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan, up 30; East China scrap steel was 2110 yuan, unchanged. Lecong Magang cold - rolled was 3720 yuan, up 20; Shanghai Magang cold - rolled was 3740 yuan, up 20 [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the national main - port iron ore trading volume was 68.70 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.62 tons, a 60.1% increase [2]. - Since March 10, Shagang has raised the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - From March 2 - 8, the global iron ore shipping volume was 2897.8 tons, a decrease of 442.9 tons from the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2342.1 tons, a decrease of 348.5 tons [2]. - From March 2 - 8, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons from the previous period [2]. - If the normal crude oil passage volume through the Strait of Hormuz is 15 million barrels per day and the replaceable volume of the Saudi - UAE pipeline is 4 million barrels per day, there will still be 11 million barrels per day of crude oil sea - transportation blocked. The global crude oil supply may temporarily drop to 94 million barrels per day, and the supply gap will reach 9.5 million barrels per day [3]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the situation of weak supply and demand before the holiday remains unchanged, fundamental contradictions of rebar continue to accumulate, inventory has increased significantly, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.31%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals continue to operate weakly. The price of hot-rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance, and beware of the intensification of contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, affected by weather factors, the overseas ore supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the contrary, the demand performance is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore remain weak. Under the dominance of the real logic, the ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism, aiming to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US economic and trade relations [7]. - In January 2026, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.544 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.973 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The wholesale volume of self - owned car companies was 1.326 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The wholesale volume of mainstream joint - venture car companies was 0.42 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 0.228 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - As of February 11, 2026, 35 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance and publicity of the ultimate energy - efficiency benchmark of the China Iron and Steel Association, and on that day, Shiheng Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,190, 3,150 and 3,304 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,240, 3,140 and 3,279 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet is 2,900, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160. The volume - to - rebar spread is 50, and the rebar - to - scrap spread is 1,030. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 758, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 767, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates are 8.27 and 22.58 respectively, the SGX swap price (current month) is 100.29, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 99.95 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,050, with a decline of 0.23%, the trading volume is 444,164, a decrease of 113,120 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 2,029,537, a decrease of 34,123 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,218, with a decline of 0.31%, the trading volume is 214,288, a decrease of 40,967 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 1,533,692, a decrease of 18,682 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 762.0, with a decline of 0.20%, the trading volume is 112,867, a decrease of 20,919 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 497,918, a decrease of 9,039 compared with the previous period [12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore, including inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of steel mills [14][29]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to weaken, inventory has increased significantly, the weekly output of short - process steel mills has decreased by 22.52 tons, and supply continues to shrink. However, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. The demand for rebar also weakens, and high - frequency demand indicators are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to drag down steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand continue to weaken seasonally, the inventory increase has expanded, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 1.40 tons, and it is still at a relatively high level. The supply pressure still exists. The demand for hot - rolled coil continues to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 9.35 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains at a high level, it provides support for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The export performance is average, and the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil weakens. The price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills stabilizes, and the terminal consumption of ore increases slightly. However, considering the poor profitability of steel mills and the accumulation of steel market contradictions, the demand improvement is limited. The arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipping of miners has decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances, resulting in a short - term contraction of overseas ore supply. The domestic ore supply also contracts seasonally, and the high - inventory situation limits the relief of ore supply pressure. The ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [38].

Report Title - Steel Weekly Report 20250202 [2] Report Core View - The inventory of rebar is accumulating rapidly, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply of rebar has slightly increased, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory continues to accumulate with an expanding increase. The hot-rolled coil production has increased, demand remains resilient, and inventory continues to decline. The cost side still provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Supply**: Some steel mills have resumed production. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 199.83 million tons (+0.28), and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 309.21 million tons (+3.8) [4] - **Demand**: Rebar demand is weak, while hot-rolled coil demand remains resilient. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 176.5 million tons (-9.12), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 311.41 million tons (+1.45) [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory is accumulating, while hot-rolled coil inventory continues to decline but still faces pressure. The total rebar inventory is 475.53 million tons (+23.43), social inventory is 326.4 million tons (+23.28), and steel mill inventory is 149.13 million tons (+0.15). The total hot-rolled coil inventory is 355.58 million tons (-2.2), social inventory is 278.33 million tons (-2.81), and steel mill inventory is 77.25 million tons (+0.61) [4] - **Basis**: As of January 30, the basis of the rebar main contract is 122 yuan/ton (-6), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract is -18 yuan/ton (-3) [4] - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 277.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous period. The blast furnace operating rate is 79%, a 0.32% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The electric furnace operating rate is 70.66%, a 2.02% decrease from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 55.71%, a 2.23% decrease from the previous period [4] Raw Materials - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), the price of main coking coal in Luliang is 1,483 yuan/ton (-57), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 789 yuan/ton (-10) [19] Market Conditions - **Spot Prices**: As of January 30, the national average price of rebar is 3,316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the national average price of hot-rolled coils is 3,299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - **Trading Volume**: As of January 30, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 67,300 tons, and the trading volume is at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils is 29,400 tons, and the trading volume has decreased. The downstream cold-rolled output is 884,200 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, and it is at a high level compared to the same period last year [49][53] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 528,500 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of major steel products is 8.9098 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons from the previous period [56] - **Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 197,800 tons from the previous period. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot-rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [66] Related Industries - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, an increase of 173,300 vehicles from the previous period; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, an increase of 106,900 tons from the previous period. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, an increase of 108,000 vehicles from the previous period; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, an increase of 108,000 tons from the previous period [70] - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of housing was 597.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completed area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place for development enterprises were 93.117 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [73][74]

Demand - In 2025, national fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 3.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November [18][19] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from January-November [18] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to decline by 2.2%, with a 1.1 percentage point increase in the rate of decline compared to January-November [18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drop by 17.2% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase in the decline rate compared to January-November [18] - January average weekly demand for rebar is 1.82 million tons, down 12% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil demand is 3.11 million tons, up 1% month-on-month [18][19] - February demand is expected to stagnate due to the Spring Festival holiday [18][19] Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 44.22 million tons or 4.4% year-on-year [19] - Pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 25.86 million tons or 3% year-on-year [19] - January production saw a slight rebound, with molten iron production increasing by 0.55 million tons [19] - February is expected to see stable production for long-process steel mills, while electric arc furnace plants will gradually shut down for the holiday [19] Inventory - In January, inventory of the five major steel products increased by 463,600 tons, with rebar inventory rising by 535,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory decreasing by 153,800 tons [19] - Total inventory of the five products increased by 1.4615 million tons year-on-year [19] - February is expected to see accelerated inventory accumulation due to stagnant demand and high production levels [19] Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2% month-on-month [20] - Cumulative steel exports for 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [20] - The implementation of the steel product export license management system from January 1, 2026, may lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes in January and February [20] Costs - In January, iron ore prices fluctuated, while coke prices saw an initial increase followed by a decline, leading to a slight narrowing of profits for long-process steel mills and an expansion of losses for short-process mills [20] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills is currently at 39.39%, with raw material replenishment nearing completion [20] Summary - The steel market in January was characterized by weak demand and insufficient driving forces, leading to narrow price fluctuations [21] - February is expected to see increased supply pressure due to stagnant demand and high production levels, with inventory accumulation expected to accelerate [21] - The overall market sentiment remains somewhat positive due to a strong atmosphere for price increases in the commodity market [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory is rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2]. - For iron ore, the overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron ore supply is expected to decline, and the port inventory is rising [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased month - on - month, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods declined month - on - month, the apparent demand for the five major varieties declined overall, inventory increased, and production remained basically unchanged [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.19% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3280 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day and down 0.18% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 199.55 tons, up 4.86% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 305.41 tons, down 0.96% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 868.46 tons, up 0.25% from last week; the social inventory of threaded rods is 303.12 tons, up 2.61% from last week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 281.14 tons, down 1.63% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 809.52 tons, down 2.01% from last week; the apparent demand for threaded rods is 185.52 tons, down 2.53% from last week; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 309.96 tons, down 1.34% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron water production is likely to decline seasonally, and the steel and iron water production will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decline, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreases, and the port inventory is rising. The shutdown of two Vale mines has little impact on the overall supply [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price breaks through the recent oscillation range and then falls back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The short - term rebound encounters resistance at the 10 - day moving average, indicating strong resistance above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, down 0.63% from the previous day and down 1.0 from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 102.87 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.82% from the previous day and down 1.79 from last week [4]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments are 1653.7 tons, up 213.6 from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipments are 485.2 tons, up 5.1 from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 11527.84 tons, up 174.99 from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on January 30, 2026 [6]. - Two iron ore units of Vale in Brazil have been ordered to suspend operations and have had their licenses revoked due to water overflow incidents. The annualized total output of these two units is expected to be about 8 million tons, accounting for about 2.3% of its annual output guidance [6]. - As of the week ending January 28, according to zhaogang.com data, the national building materials production is 430.1 tons, a decrease of 8.33 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 414.39 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons from last week; the social inventory is 388.22 tons, an increase of 21.05 tons from last week; the total inventory is 802.61 tons, an increase of 31.4 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 398.7 tons, a decrease of 14.06 tons from last week [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No explicit investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and mixed inventory trends. Due to rising raw material costs, narrowing profit margins, and seasonal factors, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Macro - level policies aim to maintain liquidity, but terminal demand remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The output of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills was 191.04 million tons (+2.82 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.51 million tons (+1 million tons). Some steel mills completed maintenance, leading to increased iron - water output and a significant rise in EAF operating rates [4]. - **Demand**: Demand was seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 174.96 million tons (-25.48 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 308.34 million tons (-2.43 million tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar as of January 9 was 8.03 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 2.65 million tons [4][46][50]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulated, while hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08 million tons), and the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83 million tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 9, the basis of the rebar main contract was 146 yuan/ton (-32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was -24 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Price**: The national average price of rebar was 3337 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3306 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation The cost - side support strengthened. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lüliang was 1403 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton; and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Steel Mill Situation - The profitability rate of steel mills declined to 37.66%. The iron - water output was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The EAF operating rate was 72.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.34%, and the EAF capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, a week - on - week increase of 1.76% [4]. - As of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 89.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65% [29]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Situation - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million units, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 units; sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. New - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 units; sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [69]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.5% year - on - year, housing completion decreased by 18% year - on - year, commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and funds in place decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [72][73]. 3.5 Export Situation In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons. From January to November, cumulative steel exports were 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [65].