钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量191.04万吨（+2.82），热卷小样本产量305.51万吨（+1）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日均 229.5万吨（+2.07），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.8%（-0.8）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3385 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-44.58元/吨左右，谷电成本3220（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +120元/吨。近期废钢供到货继续增长，电炉成本出现上涨，导致电炉利润下滑，而近期铁水复产，电炉产能利用率 小幅下降，废钢日耗在50.53万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续增加。 需 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 重要事项: 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、2025 | 年 | 11 | 月，中国不锈钢材进口量为 | 11.21 | 万吨，环比下降 | 1.20 | 万吨，降幅 | 10%；同比减少 | 1.81 | 万吨，降幅 | 14%。其中，自印度尼西亚进口量为 | 8.73 | 万吨，环 | | | | | 比减 ...

弱现实与暖预期， 钢价企稳迹象初显 钢材月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 06 需求与进出口 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度小结 | 热卷基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约基差 | 毛利润测算 | 1-11月累计产量 | 1-11月累计消费 | 库存 | | | | （元/吨） | （万吨） | （万吨） | （万吨） | | 数据 | -2 | -23 | 15372.97 | 15283.2 | 400.9 | | 多空评分 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | | 简评 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | 累库 | | 小结 | 宏观方面，受美国政府关门影响，美联储通胀判断不确定性上升，多位 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 p 2 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 | 目录 | | --- | | 1、11月钢材期现货价格窄幅震荡，螺纹表现强于热卷； | | 2、10月粗钢、生铁产量继续回落，11月螺纹周产量回落、热卷周产量回落； | | 3、11月高炉开工率回升，产能利率及铁水产量回落，电炉开工率、产能利用率回升； | | 4、11月全国建材成交量回升，杭州市场出库量回落； | | 5、10月投资增速全面回落，11月螺纹表需回落，热卷表需回落； | | 6、11月螺纹库存继续下降，热卷库存下降； | | 7、11月螺纹盘面、热卷盘面亏损收窄，长流程钢厂亏损扩大、短流程钢厂亏损收窄。 | 注：本表期货价格为本周五夜盘收盘价格与上周五夜盘收盘价格对比。 数据来源:wind,光大期货研究所 p 3 p 4 1.1 价格：11月黑色系商品走势分化，煤焦大幅下跌，铁矿石、钢材窄幅震荡，螺纹强于热卷 ...

11月26日，钢材现货市场小幅下跌，期货市场主要品种主力以跌为主，其中螺纹跌0.06%、热卷跌 0.03%，铁矿涨0.19%，双焦跌1.3%左右。近期钢材表观需求有所好转，期钢亦有回落，虽然基建及市 政项目未有改善，但房建项目资金到位率续增，创近年新高，明日钢价...... 一、多空因素分析 1．中钢协：11月中旬重点钢企粗钢日产194.3万吨，环比增0.9% 2025年11月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢1943万吨，平均日产194.3万吨，日产环比增长0.9%； 生产钢材1924万吨，平均日产192.4万吨，日产环比增长2.1%；钢材库存量1561万吨，环比上一旬增加 12万吨，增长0.8%；目前看，粗钢日产环比增长会加剧供应压力，利空钢材价格走势。 https://www.chinaisa.org.cn/gxportal/xfgl/portal/index.html 2.美联储重磅发声！12月降息概率上升 多名美联储官员发声！北京时间25日晚间消息，美联储理事米兰表示，美国经济需要大幅降息，货币政 策阻碍了经济发展。米兰认为，美国不存在通胀问题，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中性水平。此前，美 联储官员戴利 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月17日08时11分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方 有布林带下轨的支撑，短线窄幅震荡之后，面临方向选择。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。价格处于低位，不建议做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3053 7 0.23% 19 0.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3256 2 0.06% 11 0.34% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3190 -10 -0.31% 0 0 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 ...

Morning session notice | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、央行陶玲：约束金融行业"内卷式竞争"，保持合理的盈利空间。 | 2、国家统计局：要继续扩大国内需求、优化市场竞争环境等促进物价合理回升。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3、国家统计局：10 | 月中国汽车产量 | 327.9 | 万辆，同比增 | 11.2%。 | 4、 | 1-10 | 月份，全国房地产开发投资 | 73563 | 亿元，同比下降 | 14.7%。 | | | | | | | 5、2025 | 年 | 10 | 月，中国粗钢产量 | 7200 | 万吨，同比下降 | 12.1%；生铁产量 | 655 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total output of five major steel products declined this week, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. The overall steel inventory continued to decrease, but hot-rolled coils showed a slight accumulation. The supply-demand structure constrained the performance of steel prices. It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound trading approach for single positions, continue to hold long positions on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the weekly output of small-sample rebar was 200 million tons (-8.54), and that of small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.66 million tons (-4.50). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). Although the profit of electric arc furnaces improved slightly with the decline in scrap steel prices, it remained in a loss, leading to a slight increase in production. The profit of long-process steel also remained in a loss but improved slightly, and hot metal production increased this week [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small-sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (-2.15), and that for small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (-0.71). Steel demand continued to decline recently, with difficulties in project payment collection for downstream construction sites and a decrease in the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter, indicating significant demand pressure. From January to October, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment declined month-on-month, with insufficient incremental investment in domestic projects. In October, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, with the decline in new construction and completion falling to around -30%, indicating weak data and insufficient willingness among residents to purchase houses, and the real estate market continued to decline. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, showing a decline in the manufacturing PMI, with significant weakening in new orders and export data. In October, China's automobile production increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and exports increased by 41.6% year-on-year, maintaining strong positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand. In November, the production schedule of the three major white goods decreased by 21.2% year-on-year, showing a further decline. In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. - **Inventory**: In terms of rebar inventory, the mill inventory decreased by 64,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 163,700 tons. For hot-rolled coils, the mill inventory increased by 900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, resulting in a total inventory increase of 700 tons. The mill inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 126,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 136,100 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 262,200 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan (unchanged), and that of Hebei Steel's hot-rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was -240.38 yuan (+34), and the off - peak electricity profit was -75 yuan (+34) [28]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In the first ten months, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In October, the newly added social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a significant decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The newly added RMB loans were 22 billion yuan. Residential loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, and corporate loans were 35 trillion yuan. Currently in the off - season of investment, credit demand is weakening, residential demand is cooling, the real estate market is further cooling, and the contribution of fiscal policy to social financing is weakening. However, it may improve at the end of this year and next year due to the impact of policy - based financial instruments. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed asset investment was -1.70%, a further rapid decline. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -14.7%, that of manufacturing investment was +2.7%, and that of infrastructure investment was +1.51%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was -0.1%. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to contract significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, affecting infrastructure investment to some extent. The repayment situation of downstream projects is poor, corporate loans are low, and the investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry continues to contract due to insufficient industrial prosperity [30][35]. - **Foreign Macroeconomy**: In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). The weekly output of small - sample rebar was 208.54 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons month - on - month. The weekly output of small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons month - on - month [53][58]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (a 7.6% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 2.15 million tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (a 1.67% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 0.71 million tons month - on - month. The demand for building materials and the production schedule of white goods declined, while the production and export of automobiles maintained strong growth [61]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar decreased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The overall inventory of the five major steel products decreased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, steel prices were slightly repaired at a low level boosted by the warming of macro - expectations. However, industrial contradictions have not been completely eliminated. Although the structural contradictions have slightly improved, the supply - demand gap in the steel sector remains at a relatively high level. The total inventory shows a seasonal decline. At the end of the month, under the background of production restrictions in Hebei, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, weakening the driving force for price rebound. From a valuation perspective, the upside space of rebar is under pressure near the off - peak electricity cost. In November, the driving force is limited, and it is expected that the volatile pattern will be difficult to change. [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Price and Production Data**: In October, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of the end of October, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3200 yuan, unchanged from the end of September; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of September. On October 30, the total output of the five major steel products increased by 9.97 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 18.49 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 22.62 tons. The apparent demand was 916.4 tons, an increase of 23.69 tons month - on - month. [5] - **Profit Data**: As of October 31, in the long - process spot end, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3196.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 3.5 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 33.5 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace end, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China was about 3331 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3189 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 171 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 29 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel Data**: As of October 30, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.6%, up 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.2 tons, down 0.15 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 25 tons/day, up 0.04 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16.7 tons, up 0.18 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.1%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 47.3 tons, down 1.26 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.6%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 469.7 tons, down 3.7 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.8%. [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - **Steel Production**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [14] - **PMI Index**: In October 2025, the PMI was 49%. Compared with September 2025, multiple sub - indicators showed declines, such as the production index decreased by 2.2, the new order index decreased by 0.9, etc. [19] - **Investment Data**: From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 21.28% year - on - year. [23] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed floor area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. [26] 3.3 Product - Specific Data - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 212.59 tons (+5.52 tons), including 183.08 tons of long - process output (+3.94 tons) and 29.51 tons of short - process output (+1.58 tons). The factory inventory was 171.71 tons (-12.92 tons), the social inventory was 430.81 tons (-6.67 tons), and the total inventory was 602.52 tons (-19.59 tons). [55][72] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 323.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 tons; the apparent demand was 331.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.31 tons, the social inventory decreased by 8.64 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 8.33 tons. [75] - **Export**: As of October 24, the FOB export price in China was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 32.3 US dollars (-4.8 US dollars). The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 342.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109.98 tons, a growth rate of 37.5%. [86]