北京时间周二(8月26日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.25附近，现货白银今日开盘于38.56美元/盎司，目 前交投于38.72美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于9338元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于9366元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国8月谘商会消费者信心指数，美国8月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数。 周一(8月25日)美元指数上涨0.73%，收报98.43，现货白银收报38.55美元/盎司，下跌0.69%，由于市场 对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，美元指数反弹，现货白银大幅度回落，现货黄金也在接近15美元的狭 窄区间内横盘震荡：现货黄金下跌0.17%，报3365.95美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌1.54%，报1340.75美元/ 盎司；现货钯金收跌2.77%，至1094.93元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 SLV白银ETF持仓15288.82吨，较前一交易日持平； 白银市场昨日开盘在38.87的位置后先拉升给出日线高点38.991的位置后行情强势震荡回落，日线最低给 到了38.524的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了38.543的位置后，日线以一根上影线较长的中阴线收 线，而这样的形态收尾后，上周五37.8的多减仓后止损 ...

张尧浠：降息前景乐观情绪缓解、金价多头受限看涨前景不变 上交易日周一(8月25日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，随着市场对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，市场焦点转向即将公布的美国PCE数据，以寻找美联储政策路径 的线索，再加上美元反弹收复上周五大部分跌幅，抑制了金价涨幅，使其未能进一步反弹走强，但也仍运行在60日及中轨上方，多头仍具看涨前景，下方 中轨线及100日均线支撑，仍是继续看涨反弹的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3371.93美元/盎司，日内整体处于震荡走盘模式，于早盘10点时段录得日内低点3359.65美元，又于美盘23点时段录得日内高 点3375.94美元，之后则遇阻维持回撤，最终收于3365.52美元，日振幅16.29美元，收跌6.71美元，跌幅0.2%。 展望今日周二(8月26日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回落趋势先行表现走弱，以及美元指数开盘先行走强，也对其产生利空压力，不过金价由于下方也 有众多均线支撑，故此，如触及日内短线支撑位置，也是可先行看涨反弹。 美元指数日图走势再度重回看涨趋势上方以及短期均线之上，多头动力增强，周图走势也反弹走强，虽运行在中轨下方，但布林带的缩口，加上附图指标 维持明显 ...

张尧浠：贸易局势缓和、金价维持震荡回踩支撑看涨 上交易日周四(7月24日)：国际黄金再度回落收跌，技术上的横向阻力回落压力，以及全球贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象继续抑制了对避险资产的需求；但目前 也仍运行在中轨和60日均线上方，且也处于震荡看涨三角形态趋势之中，暗示后市方向仍是向上突破不变，那么，一时的回落或者是回踩支撑，也仍是看涨 入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3388.15美元/盎司，先行短暂震荡走强，录得日内高点3393.15美元，之后则遇阻回落，持续走低，于美盘初录得日内低点 3351.30美元，最后止跌反弹回升，一度触及3377美元，但仍遇阻偏弱运行，最终收于3368.39美元，日振幅41.85美元，收跌19.76美元，跌幅0.58%。 展望今日周五(7月25日)：国际黄金开盘继续先行窄幅波动，但下方支撑强劲，且仍保持着近期的回升趋势，以及震荡趋势之内，故此，也暗示下方空间有 限，60日均线及上升趋势线支撑位置，也仍是入场看涨的机会。 美元指数，日图走势昨日止跌收涨，对金价产生利空压力，但仍处于回落趋势的压力中，周图也受到5-10周均线阻力，布林带暂仍偏向开口向下延伸的预 期，而会在方向上，利好金 ...

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3431.72美元/盎司，先行走强于8点时段录得日内高点3438.67美元，之后遇阻回落，日内基本处于3420-30美元区间内震荡盘 整，到美盘开盘后，空头力量加大，连续回落走低，于0点时段录得日内低点3381.55美元，最后有所止跌回升，收于3387.02美元，日振幅57.12美元，收 跌44.7美元，跌幅1.3%。 展望今日周四(7月24日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，受到美元指数偏弱走盘的支撑而限制了跌幅，不过，金价技术上日内短线仍有回落风险，稳健者 可待进一步触及10日均线或者是中轨线支撑再度看涨反弹。 其美元指数，日图走势保持回落趋势整体偏弱运行，周图也再度跌至5-10周均线阻力下方，布林带也倾向向下延伸，看空前景加大，月图走势也保持着回 落趋势继续走低，故此，整体上，将继续对金价产生利好预期，因而，金价要么继续维持震荡调整行情，要么再度反弹走强。 日内将可关注欧洲央行公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场预期利率保持不变，根据之前拉加德讲话言论欧元区经济增长 承压来看，整体偏向利好美元，利空金价； 同时，还将关注美国至7月19日当周初请失业金人数(万 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a contraction, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a bullish trend in gold prices by the end of the year [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June is at its lowest level since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic contraction [3]. - The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Bostic, anticipate one rate cut this year and three in the following year, suggesting a dovish monetary policy stance [3][6]. - Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chair has further strengthened expectations for rate cuts next year, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3][6]. Gold Price Movements - Gold prices opened at $3,272.74 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3,309.12, closing at $3,302.85, marking a daily increase of $30.11 or 0.92% [1]. - The price is expected to test the $3,400 level, with the 60-day moving average acting as a support level [1][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently cautious, awaiting key employment data, which is expected to show rising unemployment and decreasing job numbers, generally favorable for gold prices [3][5]. - Despite some bearish indicators, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold due to anticipated economic conditions and Fed policy [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained a bullish outlook as it remains above the 5-month moving average, although a drop below this level could signal a potential decline to around $3,000 [8]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation, but the prevailing trend remains upward unless significant support levels are breached [8][10].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market outperformed European stocks this week, supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - Factors contributing to the U.S. market's performance include easing Middle East tensions, reduced tariff pressures, and increased focus on technology stocks [1] - The upcoming release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key focus, with expectations that unless there is a significant upside surprise, the momentum may drive the S&P 500 index to new highs [1]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：以伊停火生效，鲍威尔重申观望态度但对降息前景"端水"，金价下 跌；美国三大股指均涨超1%，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美元指数跌0.42%报 97.97，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1644； 美债收益率集体下跌，10年期跌近5个基 点报4.297%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.66%报3338.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货771.86，现货770.07，基差-0.79，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18213千克，增加45千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方 ...

Group 1 - Discussion on potential clues regarding interest rate cuts within the year [1] - Examination of the impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. inflation, employment, and supply chains [2] - Insights on the international situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran [3] Group 2 - Analysis of discussions surrounding U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Evaluation of Trump's actions against "illegal" immigration and its effects on the job market [5] - Consideration of Trump's deregulatory agenda, stablecoin legislation, and volatility in financial markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].