Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating, with most varieties expected to fluctuate, indicating that the market trend is uncertain in the short - term, and the expected price change is within plus or minus one standard deviation [102]. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently affected by factors such as the approaching peak - off - peak season transition, limited pre - event production restrictions, and inventory pressure. The overall market is in a state of shock, and the follow - up needs to focus on production restrictions and terminal demand [1][2][5]. - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply and demand of steel products will be affected around the military parade. The specific situation of blast furnace production restrictions needs to be tracked [7]. - The iron ore market has stable supply and inventory, and the demand is at a high level. The negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][7]. - The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply and demand tightness under supply disturbances, and the short - term disk still has support [2][11]. - The glass market has weak fundamentals, and the cost support is strengthened by the rise in coal prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price may decline in the long - term [2][13]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term and decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. - The supply pressure of manganese silicon increases, and the price may decline in the long - term; the short - term price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, but there are hidden concerns in the long - term fundamentals [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: Low - price transactions are the main form, and the overall spot trading of steel products is average. Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed little. Rebar inventory increased significantly, and the demand continued to decline. The export orders of hot - rolled coils improved, and the domestic demand was resilient, with the inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined and the inventory accumulated, showing off - peak season characteristics [7]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of steel products are marginally weakening in the off - peak season. The supply and demand will be affected around the military parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked. The disk may fluctuate more violently, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. The follow - up should focus on the production restriction of steel mills and terminal demand [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: The port trading volume increased. The overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly, slightly higher than the same period last year. The total supply is relatively stable. The small - sample molten iron output remained stable, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased slightly. The iron ore ports accumulated inventory, the number of berthed ships decreased, and steel mills replenished inventory slightly [7]. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, the supply and inventory are stable, and the negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces and blast furnaces increased, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available days of inventory decreased to a relatively low level. After the price cut by Shagang, the scrap steel prices in East China and other places followed the decline, while the prices in Hebei increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the market was calm and the disk fluctuated. In the spot market, the price remained stable. After the sixth round of price increase, the overall profit of coking enterprises turned positive, and the production increased slightly. The downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The trading enthusiasm of traders decreased, and the steel mill arrivals improved. The upstream coking enterprises continued to reduce inventory, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant [10]. - Outlook: The expectation of production restrictions on coke is strong before the military parade, and the short - term supply is tight. The seventh round of price increase still needs time to be implemented. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel enterprises [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area resumed production, but some mine points still had limited production. The short - term supply disturbance of coal mines will continue. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remained above 1,000 vehicles. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the downstream purchases on demand. Some coal mines have accumulated inventory, but there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][11]. - Outlook: The supply disturbance continues, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply before the military parade. The short - term fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term disk still has support [11]. Glass - Core Logic: After the decline in the glass disk, the sentiment in the spot market declined. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [2][13]. - Outlook: The real - world demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The spot trading is still weak after the increase in the disk. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the demand is relatively stable. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [2][15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the price of manganese silicon futures opened low and moved low. The raw material procurement by manufacturers before the military parade is almost over, the port trading atmosphere has cooled down, and the port ore price has declined slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand will decline slightly during the military parade [2]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is controllable, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and the price may decline [2]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures opened with a gap down and then consolidated. The production of ferrosilicon is accelerating, and the demand for steelmaking will decline slightly during the military parade. The magnesium market has weak high - price transaction follow - up [2][17]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center will decline [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月8日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 町值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 56 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3320 | 3330 | -10 | 16 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3470 | 3470 | O | 166 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3330 | 3337 | -7 | 30 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3231 | 3234 | -3 | 129 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3304 | 3309 | -5 | રેણ | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3460 | 3470 | -10 | 20 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3400 | 3410 | -10 | -40 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall domestic demand in the steel industry remains weak, while exports stay at a relatively high level. The spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the "anti - involution" dominates the market trend. The market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with supply having seasonal recovery expectations in August and demand likely to keep iron - water production at a high level in the short term [3]. - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with the fifth round of price increases implemented, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4]. - Coking coal prices have a relatively small downside space in the short term, with the market sentiment heating up due to coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Silicomanganese prices are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with the price bottom gradually rising, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [7]. - Ferrosilicon follows the trend of silicomanganese, and its price is also greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The construction materials demand is weak in the off - season, with thread apparent demand declining and inventory accumulating at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, with production relatively high and inventory slightly accumulating. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the market negative feedback pressure is small. The downstream industries show weak domestic demand and high - level exports [2]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month, with a seasonal recovery expected in August. The domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month but was lower than last year. The port inventory stabilized, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. The terminal demand is weak, and the iron - water production is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Coke - The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with production slightly decreasing and inventory continuing to decline. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production remains high. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and is expected to rise in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The market sentiment is affected by coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with a relatively small downside space in the short term [6]. Silicomanganese - The demand for silicomanganese is supported by high - level iron - water production. The weekly production has increased, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [7]. Ferrosilicon - The iron - water production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly decreased. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [8].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with major contracts for coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Over ten varieties, including alumina and polysilicon, saw declines exceeding 3%, marking a shift from previous bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations to panic selling [1][3] - The implementation of position limits by exchanges was a direct catalyst for the market reversal, coinciding with a period of heightened market enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 25, polysilicon futures prices surged by 52.31%, glass futures by 33.79%, and lithium carbonate futures by 28.46%, while coking coal futures rose by 49.44% over seven consecutive trading days [3] - The position limits imposed by exchanges directly impacted speculative trading, forcing speculative funds to reduce positions and exit the market [3] - Despite the market's sharp adjustment, the fundamental logic behind the "anti-involution" policy remains, aiming to improve the current state of vicious competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] Group 3 - The steel industry, as a key focus of regulatory measures, is expected to see a year-on-year production decline of 5% in the third quarter, which will positively affect the fundamentals of coking coal as a crucial raw material [4] - The situation in the new energy supply chain is more complex, with lithium and silicon facing weak fundamentals but supported by strong policy expectations, leading to a rebound despite high inventory levels and oversupply [4] - The glass industry faces ongoing supply pressure, with float glass production maintaining around 156,800 tons per day, and demand showing no significant improvement, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [2]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,132 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 2.23 million lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,262 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 1.5971 million lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upward. As of July 11, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot-rolled coils shifted downward. As of July 11, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 67 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter-month spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 28 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 10 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar-hot rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 121 yuan/ton, a change of +4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 22.94 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week and an increase of 15,200 tons year-on-year [19]. - This week, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.7272 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week. The effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Last week, the US government imposed a "tariff bomb" on 14 countries. US President Trump posted several letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot-rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off-season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino-US trade friction and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the implementation path of the off-season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.1401 million tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons week-on-week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.2557 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons week-on-week. The total social + steel mill inventory was 13.3958 million tons, a decrease of 350 tons week-on-week. The overall inventory is at a low level compared to the same period, continuing a certain de-stocking trend [33]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel increased slightly to 59.74%. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 3,262 yuan/ton. The steel price trend was relatively strong, and the price increase of rebar in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. Profits have rebounded. The average profit of steel mills was -107 yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit was -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billet increased by 24 yuan/ton to 2,983 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 23 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton [53]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [56]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [56].

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report - Date: July 4, 2024 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash market is facing an overall surplus situation, with supply and demand both declining and inventory accumulating. The long - term outlook is bearish, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to policy stimulus [8]. - The glass market is under pressure from increasing supply and high mid - stream inventory. Although the price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the follow - up implementation of industry production - limiting policies needs to be monitored [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **July 3 Trading Data**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 closed at 1,183 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with an increase of 177,559 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production dropped to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease. Capacity utilization fell to 81.32%, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease. Consumption decreased by 1.50% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 2.41% week - on - week to 1.8095 million tons [8]. - **Outlook**: The overall surplus pattern suppresses prices. Demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is declining. In the short term, there is a risk of correction, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is bearish [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **July 3 Trading Data**: The FG509 contract closed at 1,039 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.56%, with an increase of 22,323 lots in positions. The FG601 contract closed at 1,128 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a decrease of 4,438 lots in positions [7]. - **Supply**: Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line with a design capacity of 600 tons/day was restarted, increasing supply and inventory pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues [9]. - **Policy**: The market expects the government to introduce policies for capacity clearance and production limitation, leading to a price rebound. The implementation of these policies needs to be monitored [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][14][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventories rose, social inventories continued to fall, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. The rumored production cuts have limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises think the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, prices have broken through the recent oscillation range downward. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased last week, and the decline rate has widened. Iron - water output is higher than last year's level and peak. If production - limit policies are introduced, it will further suppress iron - ore demand. With the end of the downstream consumption peak, steel apparent demand has declined, and iron - water output is expected to fall further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventories is slowing, and the proportion of trade - mine inventories is high, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, futures prices have fallen significantly but are still within the recent oscillation range and may break downward under the influence of falling rebar prices. [5] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have generally declined. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 is 2980 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力合约收盘价 is 3111 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from last week. [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar主力基差 is 150 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力基差 is 89 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from last week. Different futures spreads also show certain changes. [3] - **Production and Operation**: The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.15%, down 0.47% from last week; the average daily iron - water volume is 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 59.74%, up 0.43%. National building - material steel mill rebar production is 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - roll production is 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products is 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; rebar social inventory is 416.46 million tons, down 4.24% from last week; hot - roll social inventory is 263.27 million tons, down 2.26% from last week. Factory inventories of five major steel products are 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week. [3] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building - steel trading volume is 15.91 million tons, down 17.28% from last week; the weekly terminal procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai is 15,500 tons, down 11.93% from last week. [3] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 41,975 tons, down 9,650 tons; the number of registered hot - roll warehouse receipts is 167,722 tons, down 75,934 tons. [3] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore主力 contract is 698.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.66% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined to different degrees. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 34 yuan/dry ton, down 2.0 yuan from last week; the 1 - 5 spread is 19 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from last week. [5] - **Supply - Side Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1771.1 million tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments are 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1058.8 million tons, up 0.09% from last week. [5] - **Inventory Data**: The total port inventory is 13,987.83 million tons, down 1.26% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory is 9581.41 million tons, down 1.41% from last week. The total inventory of imported sintering powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1243.52 million tons, down 3.86% from last week. [5] - **Production Data**: The daily output of iron concentrate powder of 186 national sample mines is 50.09 million tons, up 0.42% from last week. [5] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron - ore futures warehouse receipts is 1900 hands, down 400 hands. [5] Industry News China's 47 - port imported iron - ore inventory is 14,463.79 million tons, down 163.84 million tons from last Monday. From May 19th to May 25th, 2024, the total iron - ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 million tons, up 41.1 million tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory - building trend, and the current inventory is at the maximum since the beginning of the year. [7]