21世纪经济报道记者 袁思杰 实习生顾欣宇 香港报道 今年初以来，港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数年内涨幅超过28%，领先全球主要股指，创下近4年新高。 在这一背景下，外资近期快速加仓中国资产。野村证券最新研报指出，新兴市场基金在7月份大幅削减 了对印度股市的持仓权重，转而增配估值更具吸引力的H股和A股，配置比例分别上升0.8和0.7个百分 点。 摩根士丹利发布的《中国市场主动型多头基金经理持仓情况》报告显示，7月外资基金对中国股票的流 入进一步加速，从 6 月的 12 亿美元增至 27 亿美元。全球基金和亚太除日本基金对中国的低配比例分别 小幅降至 1.4 个百分点和 0.3 个百分点。 与此同时，内地投资者也在加大港股市场的投资力度。8月15日，南向资金成交净买入358.76亿港元， 单日净买入额创历史最高纪录。 港股市场对海外资本和南向资金有哪些独特吸引力？投资者主要采用了什么策略？下半年港股能否延续 强势，持续吸引资金进入？ 内外因素助推港股行情 具体来看，多数分析师认为港股今年以来的上涨行情很大程度是由内外两方面因素推动。 截至8月26日，今年以来南向资金累计净流入超9700亿港元，每日成交占比达到30% ...

现在，这些银行均预计，美联储将在9月的政策会议上降息25个基点，并在12月再次降息。 鲍威尔在讲话中强调，劳动力市场面临的"下行风险正在上升"，并警告称裁员和失业率飙升的风险可 能"迅速显现"。这一表态被市场解读为美联储释放了强烈的"宽松倾向"，并为9月不降息设置了更高的 门槛。 市场反应立竿见影。根据芝商所（CME）的FedWatch工具，交易员目前预计9月降息25个基点的概率已 从鲍威尔讲话前的75%跃升至87%。美联储的下一次利率决策会议定于9月16日至17日举行，届时市场 的最新预期将迎来检验。 投行集体转向，押注年内两次降息 鲍威尔的讲话成为华尔街投行调整预期的直接催化剂。多家银行在周五发布的报告中，明确阐述了其立 场转变。 巴克莱银行的经济学家Jonathan Millar等人在报告中指出，鲍威尔的讲话引入了"一种宽松倾向"。该行 因此将其对首次降息的预测时间点从2026年9月大幅提前至2025年9月。报告称："我们现在预计今年将 有两次25个基点的降息，分别在9月和12月。" 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，正迅速重塑华尔街对货币政策路径的预期。 多家此前立场谨慎的顶级投行一夜 ...

Group 1 - The current economic situation shows a certain trend in U.S. employment growth, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the last three months [3] - Federal Reserve voting members are inclined to consider preventive rate cuts only after receiving another weak employment report on September 5 [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with expectations that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will exceed the target by 100 basis points, making a rate cut decision in September challenging [3] Group 2 - Current gold futures are trading around 775.34 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.11%, and have fluctuated between a high of 777.22 yuan and a low of 775.14 yuan [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 788 yuan and 847 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 773 yuan and 830 yuan per gram [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese stock market**, particularly the **Hong Kong stock market**, and the **metal and technology sectors**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy** - The activation of deposits and the inflow of wealth management products are key sources of incremental funds for the Hong Kong stock market, necessitating attention to the space for wealth management entry and industry rotation clues [1][2][14] - A bullish outlook on the US stock market is maintained, with an upward adjustment of target points, while the Chinese market represented by Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, emphasizing structural and industry selection during downturns [1][5] 2. **Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts** - The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as having significant implications for both domestic and international markets, with a need for in-depth analysis rather than relying solely on historical experiences [3][6] - Differentiation between recessionary rate cuts and preventive rate cuts is crucial, as the former requires multiple deep cuts while the latter can be effective with fewer adjustments [10][9] 3. **Strong Growth in Social Financing** - In July, social financing growth was robust, with M1 growth indicating potential future inflation, reflecting an increase in risk appetite among residents [1][14] - The introduction of interest subsidies for consumer and service loans is expected to save borrowers approximately 60 billion yuan annually, impacting around 15 trillion yuan of existing credit [4][17] 4. **Performance of the Metal Sector** - The metal sector has shown strong performance, driven by demand from emerging industries such as AI and geopolitical factors, with expectations of a dual monetary and fiscal easing phase boosting the sector [19][20] - Current demand characteristics include increased military demand and industrialization in emerging economies, while supply is constrained due to insufficient capital expenditure in previous years [20][21] 5. **AI Computing Power Sector** - The computing power sector has rebounded strongly from its lows, driven by significant increases in token consumption and advancements in AI models, indicating a robust growth trajectory [23][24] - Domestic companies are noted for their higher elasticity and faster iteration speeds compared to their North American counterparts, suggesting optimistic prospects for the domestic AI computing chain [26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The relationship between cost and return is critical in determining economic fluctuations, with short-term Fed rate cuts having positive but limited impacts on market sentiment and liquidity [12][13] - The current valuation of the metal sector is at historical lows, with a potential upward adjustment expected as the fundamentals improve [21] - The anticipated performance of specific metal varieties, including tungsten, rare earths, and cobalt, is highlighted, with a focus on their growth potential in the latter half of the year [22] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future outlooks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to **U.S. economic policies** and **global demand trends** for gold, particularly focusing on **gold ETFs** and **central bank purchases**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold ETF Demand and Price Movement**: In the first half of 2024, global gold ETF demand led to an increase of approximately **397 tons**, reflecting a core avoidance of U.S. tariff policy risks, especially after the April tariff adjustments [1][4] 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies**: The fluctuating U.S. gold bar tariff policies significantly affected spot trade and market sentiment, with concerns about physical delivery risks on the COMEX exchange arising in early August [1][5] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a **preventive rate cut** in September, which may not be substantial but could influence short-term gold market dynamics [1][6][10] 4. **Speculative Positions and Inflation Expectations**: Speculative positions have less impact on gold prices this year, correlating positively with long-term U.S. inflation expectations, contrasting with previous years [1][7] 5. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases totaled approximately **415 tons** in the first half of the year, a **21% decrease** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand that has affected price trends [1][7] 6. **Market Adjustments and Volatility**: The gold market has entered a period of adjustment and low volatility, with ETF inflows decreasing significantly in July compared to earlier months [1][4][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Asian market has become a significant contributor to gold demand following tariff changes, but demand has cooled since May due to tariff reductions [1][4] 2. **Historical Context of Gold Demand**: The current situation mirrors past periods of heightened gold demand during geopolitical tensions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] 3. **Future Outlook on Gold Prices**: The potential for further upward movement in gold prices exists if U.S. economic conditions worsen, but the sustainability of such trends remains uncertain [1][11][12] 4. **Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities**: The current economic data and interest rate expectations may create short-term trading opportunities, but long-term risks related to U.S. economic growth need to be monitored [1][10][13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold market in relation to economic policies and global demand trends.

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has surged, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting a potential 50 basis point cut in September, leading to a rally in U.S. stock indices and a drop in 2-year Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent employment data has shown a drastic revision, with job additions for May to July cut by half, equating to a loss of 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]. - Bessent criticized the Federal Reserve's rigid interest rate policy, advocating for a reduction of 150-175 basis points to return rates to pre-pandemic levels [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market, particularly the seven major tech companies, has seen a 37% increase in financing purchases over three days, indicating that investors are betting on a liquidity surge post-rate cut [3]. - Gold futures have surpassed $3,400 per ounce, with 30% attributed to "panic premium," suggesting potential profit-taking if the rate cut materializes [4]. Group 3: Currency and Capital Flows - The onshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.10, with northbound capital inflows exceeding 10 billion over three consecutive days, potentially benefiting the A-share technology growth sector [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current rate cut is viewed as a means to "buy time" through monetary easing, with recommendations to focus on stable cash flow utility stocks and commodities benefiting from liquidity expansion, such as copper and crude oil [5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts copper prices could reach $9,500 per ton by year-end, highlighting the potential for investment in commodities [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump team favors Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair due to his willingness to make policy decisions based on forecasts rather than current data, contrasting with the current Chair Powell's approach [1][2] - The market's reaction to the news was a slight decline, indicating that Waller may not be perceived as dovish enough compared to other candidates [2] - Trump personally dislikes Waller, fearing that choosing from within the Fed could lead to a repeat of the Powell situation, but is considering Waller due to advice suggesting his selection would be favorable for the market [2][3] Group 2 - White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated that any discussions about personnel changes should be considered speculation unless stated by the President himself [3] - The likelihood of Waller's selection may have decreased following the market's downturn, which is not the outcome Trump desires; however, a significant market drop closer to the announcement could lead to Waller's selection as Trump may not want to gamble on the best candidate [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

Market Performance - A-share market has seen continuous volume increase and has broken through March highs, reaching a new annual high [1] - The rise is primarily driven by the non-bank financial and defense industries, with the non-bank financial sector benefiting from sentiment in Hong Kong brokerage stocks [1][2] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The strong performance of the non-bank financial sector is influenced by the approval of Guotai Junan International to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services in Hong Kong [1] - The upcoming implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 has also contributed to the active sentiment in the financial sector [1] - The sector has seen a nearly 10% increase over the past three days, with institutions accelerating the replenishment of financial heavyweight stocks [2] Defense Industry - The defense and military industry has also contributed to the A-share market's upward movement, driven by several catalysts [3] - A significant event is the grand military parade scheduled for September 3, showcasing both traditional and new military capabilities [3] - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers' meeting further enhances military cooperation among member states [3] Macroeconomic Factors - Current liquidity remains loose, with expectations of declining risk-free returns, providing ample potential liquidity for the equity market [4] - The market sentiment has improved, leading to a new price level for stock indices, although external factors like geopolitical issues may cause short-term disturbances [4] Future Market Outlook - The future performance of stock indices will depend on three key factors: US-China relations, incremental fiscal policies, and the technology sector's conditions [5] - The US-China trade relationship is characterized by short-term easing and long-term competition, with ongoing structural conflicts [5] - Fiscal policy remains focused on stabilizing the economy, with potential new policy windows if fiscal limits are reached in August [5] - The technology sector has seen a reduction in crowding, indicating conditions for a rebound, although global risk aversion may limit this [5][6]