高低切换周期板块机会展望 20251123 摘要 动力煤价格维持高位，电厂补库需求增加，全国及沿海库存上升，受益 于寒冬预期及用电量增长，煤价有望保持强势，火电企业在年底长协谈 判中占据优势。 国内建材需求萎缩，出海成重要策略。全球水泥需求虽有下滑，但剔除 中国市场后小幅增长，海外水泥价格远高于国内，华新水泥、西部水泥 等企业通过海外布局实现业绩增长。 消费建材企业如东方雨虹、北新建材通过海外并购加速扩张，整合供应 链和零售端优势，提升被收购标的竞争力，实现业务拓展和营收增长。 中国建材企业从产品出口转向品牌、渠道和本地化运营的深度出海模式， 借鉴海外龙头企业经验，提升全球竞争力，品牌力、渠道力和服务力是 关键。 有机硅行业协会减产挺价，价格上涨，行业底部拐点显现，上升弹性空 间巨大。下游新能源、电子电器及半导体需求增长迅速，供需平衡表有 望改善。 Q&A 公用事业及环保行业在近期市场表现如何？未来发展趋势如何？ 上周市场整体表现较弱，尤其是周五受到海外扰动的影响，导致国内市场预期 调整，公用环保板块表现不佳。然而，从防御角度来看，公用环保和煤炭方向 仍具有优势。尽管部分标的存在阶段性压力，但整体防御属性明显 ...

近期受外围因素、业绩真空期，以及海外AI板块调整影响，市场风险偏好有所下行，年内持续强势的 科技股涨势出现一定减缓迹象，红利资金表现则开始相对强势，并成为资金年末增配的主要方向之一。 回首过去，从行业惯例来看，每年10月到次年2月，险企会集中推出高吸引力产品。保险公司的持仓以 高股息稳定的红利资产为主。险资重仓股普遍呈现出高股息、低估值、大市值的共性特征，这背后反映 出保险资金作为长期资金，追求资产与负债久期匹配、注重绝对收益和风险控制的核心投资逻辑。 另一方面，资金"高低切换"，年底机构为锁定收益，掀起了明显的获利了结潮，资金对高股息资产的配 置需求增加，红利资产有望持续占优。 财通证券指出，红利策略阶段性占优，红利相对表现已回升至2023年初水平，其胜率与赔率均呈现向好 趋势。从资金面看，主力资金当前主要关注杠杆资金，后续可能转向险资和汇金托底资金，此类资金偏 好更倾向于红利资产。 配置方面，哑铃型配置仍是当前平衡风险与收益的核心策略。防守端可关注受益于央国企估值重塑、经 营稳健且具备稳定分红的高股息资产。短期或可挖掘景气改善且有一定持续性、估值和筹码尚处于较低 水平的品种。 2. 红利ETF广发(159 ...

首先，宏观数据持续披露，市场聚焦国内经济状态。从最新公布的一系列十月宏观经济数据来看，四季度开局基本延续了今年经济发展的主要特征， 即前高后低。当然，市场对今年政策的靠前发力所产生的经济运行节奏是有预期的。因此，目前宏观总量的影响相对有限。而海外市场近期有所调整，主 要是关于AI的发展进程有不小分歧，引发了美国科技公司的集体调整。A股市场总体呈现高低切换，风格偏防守，属于典型的年底盘整行情特征：板块轮 动、主线不清晰和均衡化配置。 其次，周一两市震荡调整，量能下降。 周一，沪指略微低开后，震荡下行，收盘跌破20天均线。深圳成指当天走势略强于沪指，但全天都在短期均 线下方运行。两市量能不到2万亿元，较上周五略有下降。当天市场热点主要集中在军工和计算机等成长性行业。投资风格方面，大盘蓝筹股跌幅较大， 中小盘风格上涨。从市场运行节奏看，沪指围绕4000点附近反复拉锯，深圳成指处于整理形态。沪指近期围绕4000 点反复波动，上周五创出新高后快速 回落，本周开局继续下探，失守20天均线。深圳成指近期处于整理形态，同样运行在所有短期均线下方。需要密切关注短期均线能否重新收回。逢低关注 煤炭ETF、稀有金属ETF等。 风险 ...

高低切&反内卷 20251116 摘要 反内卷政策旨在优化供需结构，推动通胀回归，自 2025 年 9 月以来政 策决心加强，通过供给侧约束和治理低价竞争等措施，规范生产行为， 对未来一年的价格和业绩产生正向催化作用，并可能在未来 3-5 年内深 入调整产能周期。 当前市场高低切换现象明显，周期性行业如煤炭、石化、有色表现占优。 配置思路上，应重视供给偏紧且受益于通胀交易逻辑的顺周期行业，关 注剩余流动性，重点关注电芯、金属、化工、农业及交运等领域。 牛市驱动因素正从金融在通胀转向实物在通胀，受益于反内卷和通胀交 易，有色金属、钢铁、煤炭、石化等周期性行业以及养殖、轻纺等消费 领域和物流、医药、工程机械等制造业将释放更强价格弹性。 光伏产业通过产能退出实现价格上涨，储能需求提升带动新一轮光伏价 格上涨。风电产业风机价格上涨 18%，头部公司较二线公司有溢价。锂 电池领域六氟磷酸锂价格翻倍，碳酸锂环节相对紧张，全球储能需求增 速高于 50%。 Q&A 反内卷政策的背景和意义是什么？ 反内卷政策的背景可以追溯到 2025 年 7 月 1 日的中央财经委员会会议，这标 志着从高层喊话转向中央政府制定政策和地方政府加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current rally in the consumer sector is driven by a combination of "high-low switching" and fundamental recovery, with the sector entering a configuration window characterized by "safety margin + profit matching" [1][9][16]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent A-share market shows a clear divergence, with traditional consumer sectors rising while tech stocks struggle [1]. - The consumer sector is experiencing a rotation and rebound due to multiple factors, including economic recovery expectations, relatively low valuations, and supportive policies [9][10]. - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of related companies [11][12]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector's valuation is at historical lows, making it attractive for investment, especially as policies continue to support consumption [17][18]. - The consumer index's PE-TTM is approximately 19.7X, around the 30th percentile of its three-year historical valuation, indicating a potential for recovery [18]. - The sector is seen as having significant safety margins and profit matching, making it a favorable time for allocation [16][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the consumer sector is expected to transition from a structural market to a more comprehensive market, driven by economic stabilization and improved consumer sentiment [20][22]. - The focus is on both traditional and new consumption sectors, with an emphasis on companies that can adapt and innovate in response to changing consumer demands [21][22]. - Emerging consumption trends, such as cultural and technological influences, are anticipated to drive growth in the coming years [22][23]. Group 4: Risk Factors - The main risks include macroeconomic conditions and the effectiveness of policy measures to stimulate consumption [25][28]. - Competition in the consumer sector is intensifying, leading to potential price wars that could erode profit margins [25][26]. - The need for high-quality company selection is emphasized, as the market becomes increasingly reliant on individual company performance rather than broad sector trends [28][29].

近期，A股市场呈现出明显的分化格局，以科技股为主的"双创"指数走势疲软，传统消费板块逆市上 涨。消费板块的强势表现引发市场对年底风格切换的广泛关注。 大消费如期上攻，风格切换来了吗？此轮行情是短暂"高低切换"还是逻辑反转？是否具有持续性？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了：嘉实基金大消费研究总监吴越、国泰消费优选基金经理李海、永赢基金 权益投资部基金经理蒋卫华、方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈、中银内核驱动/中银港股通消费基金经理 杨亦然。 在受访基金经理看来，受益于经济复苏预期强化、估值相对底部、政策密集落地等多重因素驱动，消费 板块迎来轮动补涨机会。 大家认为，本轮行情既有"高低切换"的原因，也有行业基本面触底回升的原因。现阶段"高低切换"的特 征更为明显，未来逻辑反转的持续性有赖于业绩基本面持续改善。 不过，在大家看来，当前消费板块的性价比突出，估值盈利比或更具安全边际，已进入配置窗口 期，"旧"消费转守为攻，"新"消费优中选优。尤其2026年板块有望从结构性行情向全面性行情过渡。 多重因素驱动消费板块迎来补涨机会 中国基金报记者：近期，A股与港股消费板块同步走强，食品饮料、旅游酒店、零售餐饮等多个子领域 在涨幅榜 ...

【导读】基金经理解读大消费板块投资机会 ：本轮行情更多是由于"高低切换"， 板块目前处于"安全边际+盈利匹配"配置窗口 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 近期，A股市场呈现出明显的分化格局，以科技股为主的"双创"指数走势疲软，传统消费板块逆 市 上涨。消费板块的强势表现引发市场对 年底风格切换的广泛关注。 大消费如期上攻，风格切换来了吗？此轮行情是短暂"高低切换"还是逻辑反转？是否具有持续性？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 嘉实基金大消费研究总监 吴越 国泰消费优选基金经理 李海 永赢基金权益投资部基金经理 蒋卫华 方正富邦基金首席投资官 汤戈 在受访基金经理看来，受益于经济复苏预期强化、估值相对底部、政策密集落地等多重因素驱动，消费板块迎来轮动补涨机会。 大家认为，本轮行情既有"高低切换"的原因，也有行业基本面触底回升的原因。现阶段"高低切换"的特征更为明显，未来逻辑反转的持续 性有赖于业绩基本面持续改善。 中银内核驱动、中银港股通消费基金经理 杨亦然 不过，在大家看来，当前消费板块的性价比突出，估值盈利比或更具安全边际，已进入配置窗口期，"旧"消费转守为攻，"新"消费优中选 优。尤其2026年板块有望从结构 ...

近期，A股市场震荡幅度加大。半导体、电网设备、机器人等方向成为市场焦点，在AI产业浪潮与国产逻辑的双重驱动下，科技股行情正从初期的普涨向结 构分化演变。与此同时，前期表现强势的算力等方向明显承压。针对科技板块内部的"新题材"与"老主线"，一线私募共识日益清晰：科技股行情正从普涨转 向结构分化，投资的关键也从"辨新旧"转为"识真伪"。在交易拥挤与估值高企的背景下，如何挖掘"高低切"的新机遇，私募机构的看法，为市场提供了下一 阶段的投资路线图。 从"新旧之争"到"生态共赢" 当市场习惯于用"新"与"旧"来标签化投资机会时，一线私募的思考更为深入。在圈内，一个核心共识正在形成：科技股的投资图谱并非简单的二元对立。 "AI产业的投资机会并不适合基于'新老'维度做出判断。"世诚投资科技研究员陈之璩表示。他分析，例如光模块和PCB等所谓"老"主线的价值，在于其业绩 与海外厂商资本开支的强关联性，业绩基础扎实；而"新"主线则反映了最新的技术路线变化和供需瓶颈，"如果没有持续的资本开支投入，路线变化和供需 瓶颈也没有意义。因此二者并不是非此即彼，而是会共同受益于全球AI建设的高景气"。 这一"生态共赢"视角，精准解释了当前资 ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a collective adjustment in the three major indices, while cultivated diamonds and battery materials are seeing a significant rise, indicating a hidden volatility beneath the surface [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Despite the index adjustments, over 2,900 stocks are rising, suggesting that market sentiment remains positive. The trading volume has decreased to 1.26 trillion, down by 186.4 billion from the previous day, indicating a consolidation phase rather than capital flight [3]. Sector Performance - Cultivated diamonds and battery materials are highlighted as standout sectors, with stocks like Sifangda hitting the daily limit and Huanghe Xuanfeng also performing well, driven by the ongoing demand for superhard materials. The entire battery supply chain is strengthening, with companies like Tianji Co. and Shida Shenghua making a comeback [3]. Investment Strategy - For investors holding positions, the current adjustment is seen as a normal fluctuation, and maintaining quality stocks is advised. New investors are encouraged to focus on quality tech stocks that have adjusted and leading companies in the battery materials sector. It is recommended to keep cash reserves to manage unexpected market fluctuations [4].

Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]