| | 11/25 21:30 美国9月PPI、核心PPI、零售销售 | | --- | --- | | | 11/26 21:30 美国11月22日当周首次申请失业救济人数 | | | 11/26 23:00 美国10月PCE、核心PCE | | | 11/27 9:30 中国10月规模以上工业企业利润 | | 重点关注 | 11/30 9:30 中国11月制造业、非制造业、综合PMI | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products is highlighted, with the recent announcement from Meizhou Commercial Bank regarding the cessation of five-year fixed deposits and automatic renewal services marking a significant shift in the banking landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product due to policy adjustments, affecting customers who can no longer benefit from automatic renewal services [2]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, which explicitly stated the cancellation of five-year fixed deposits [7]. - A total of seven banks, including Meizhou Commercial Bank and Zhongguancun Bank, have removed five-year fixed deposits from their platforms, with some banks also discontinuing three-year fixed deposits [8]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - In response to pressure on net interest margins, many small and medium-sized banks have begun a new round of interest rate cuts, with significant reductions observed in deposit rates since October [9]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank reduced its three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, respectively, marking a drop of 80 basis points [9]. - The overall trend indicates that small banks are aligning their deposit rates with larger banks, leading to a flattening of what were previously higher interest rates [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing adjustments in deposit products and interest rates reflect the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in managing their funding costs while trying to attract deposits [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current low net interest margins may lead to further reductions in loan rates if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is cut again, which would subsequently drive down deposit rates [11][12]. - The banking sector is under pressure to balance deposit attraction with cost management, especially as the year-end approaches and banks seek to optimize their funding structures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products is highlighted, with a combination of product withdrawals and interest rate cuts signaling the end of the "interest-earning era" for depositors [3][4]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-Term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product and the termination of automatic renewal services due to policy adjustments [5]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also removed five-year fixed deposits, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank and Zhongguancun Bank [10]. - A total of seven banks have removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, while some banks have listed them as sold out [11]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cuts - A new wave of interest rate cuts is occurring among small and medium-sized banks to address net interest margin pressures, with many banks reducing deposit rates since October [13]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank cut its three-year and five-year deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, a reduction of 80 basis points [13]. - The average net interest margin for various types of banks has narrowed, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, private banks, and foreign banks experiencing declines of 14 basis points, 5 basis points, 27 basis points, and 7 basis points respectively [15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is further reduced, deposit rates will likely follow suit, leading to a new round of widespread cuts [17]. - The possibility of new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, may stimulate internal financing demand [16].

产品下架+利率下调的"组合拳"正在缓缓关上储户们"吃息时代"的大门。 近日，梅州客商银行一则关于停售五年期定期存款并终止自动续存服务的公告，再次将中小银行下架长期存款产品的趋势置于聚光灯下。 取消、下架、售罄，一方面，5年定期存款、大额存单加速退出江湖；另一方面，降息公告此起彼伏，存款利率向下俯冲，对于那些习惯将资金存放于银 行"躺赚利息"的储户而言，产品下架+利率下调的"组合拳"正在缓缓关上"吃息时代"的大门。 长期限存款产品"集体退潮" 11月18日，梅州客商银行在公告该行五年期存款不再提供自动转存服务时称，由于政策调整，该行已下架五年期定期存款产品。因此，已无法为持有五年 期存款的客户提供自动续存服务。上述存款到期结息后将不再自动转存，后续该笔到期资金将按活期存款挂牌利率计息。 近几个月来，多家中小银行明里暗里下架5年定期存款。诸如11月初，土右旗蒙银村镇银行通过官方微信公众号发布了关于调整该行存款利率的相关公 告。在公告中，这家村镇银行表示，综合考虑同业机构的利率水平，自2025年11月5日起，对定期人民币存款利率进行调整，取消5年期整存整取定期存 款。这是业内首家在公告中明确取消5年期定期存款产品的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

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Domestic Highlights - Hainan's free trade port is entering the final countdown for its closure on December 18, 2025, signaling a significant step in financial openness[12] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[9] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, indicating a stable fiscal environment[9] - In October, the foreign exchange market showed a surplus of CNY 1,194 billion in bank settlements, reflecting strong risk resilience amid international market volatility[11] International Highlights - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declines in exports and private housing investment[16] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, with a 67.2% market expectation for no rate change in December[19] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.04% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.38%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities saw a week-on-week increase of 19.89%, although first-tier cities experienced an 8.51% decline[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9% year-on-year in the second week of November 2025[37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's new LPR remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a downward adjustment in the future [2] - The phosphate iron lithium industry is promoting anti - involution, with the association providing cost reference and regular disclosure [2] - US employment and unemployment data show a complex situation, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December is low [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures [3] - Rebar production and apparent demand increase, while inventories continue to decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - China's new 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR are reported at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, remaining stable for six consecutive months, and there may be a downward adjustment [2] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will guide the phosphate iron lithium industry to avoid low - price dumping [2] - US September non - farm payrolls increase, but previous data are revised down, and the unemployment rate rises [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts [3] - Rebar production increases by 3.98% this week, and total inventory decreases by 22.83 tons [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai copper, industrial silicon, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials up 3.34%, precious metals up 29.29%, etc. [4] Plate Position - Shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.40%, a monthly decline of 0.60%, and an annual increase of 17.28%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures have a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 0.40%, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index has a daily decline of 0.54%, a monthly decline of 1.63%, and an annual increase of 0.30%, etc. [6] - Other: The US dollar index has a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual decline of 7.62%, etc. [6]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down by 0.40% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down by 0.76% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3042.34, down by 1.12% [3] - The Hang Seng Futures Index closed at 33367.24, up by 0.10% [3] Macro News Summary - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are drafting the "Government Procurement Demand Standards for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comments)" [5] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the innovation and upgrading of a batch of time-honored brands [5] - The November Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) was released: the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR remains at 3% [5] Industry Latest Dynamics - Core products of organic silicon have increased in price by 20%, leading to institutional buying of related stocks such as TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089) and Hoshine Silicon Industry (603260) [6] - IDC predicts that the Chinese smart glasses market will reach a scale inflection point by 2026, with related stocks including Goertek Inc. (002241) and iFlytek Co., Ltd. (002230) [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to improve the efficiency of computing resource utilization, with related stocks including Chuling Information (300250) and Cambridge Technology (603083) [6] Listed Company Focus - Xue Ren Group (002639) is involved in a major national scientific research project utilizing its "megawatt" large helium compressor equipment [7] - Amway Co., Ltd. (300218) is collaborating with Google on the application of polyurethane composite materials in electronic products, which currently represents a small portion of overall revenue [7] - Xingfa Group (600141) has completed the installation and debugging of its 20,000 tons/year sodium hypophosphite expansion project, which is now ready for trial production [7] - Bowei Alloy (601137) is focusing on 6G communication materials as one of its key R&D projects, which has already been applied in testing prototypes [7] Market Review and Outlook - On November 20, the market opened slightly higher but maintained a volatile pattern, with all three major indices closing lower [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% to close at 3931 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped over 1% [8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 177 billion from the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as construction materials, banking, public utilities, and telecommunications saw gains, while hotel and restaurant, daily chemicals, coal, and electrical equipment sectors experienced declines of over 2% [8] - The market is currently in a performance vacuum, with value styles outperforming growth styles due to a lack of earnings realization and policy support [9] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a wait-and-see approach until a stop-loss signal appears, followed by potential reallocation based on new market leaders [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].