「2025.8.22」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体大幅上涨，创业板指涨超5%，科创50涨超10%。四期指亦集 体走高，大小盘股表现相对均衡。本周国内处于宏观数据真空期，市场关注上市公司半年报 披露状况，目前，全体A股净利增速较一季度仍有提升，四期指盈利表现有所分化。本周， 市场成交持续活跃度较上周进一步上升，沪深两市成交额持续处于两万亿水平，北向资金买 卖金额连续五周超一万亿。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 4.39 | 2.72 | 4394.0 | | | IH2509 | 3.36 | 2.80 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On August 21, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Under the background of weak demand in the off - season, downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and inventory continues to increase due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather on demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound at a low level. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,121.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; position volume is 1,458,111 lots, down 65,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 in RB contracts is - 102,201 lots, down 15,883 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 79 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 137,310 tons, up 9,965 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 209.00 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 140.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao Port is 771.00 yuan/wet ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) is 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,020.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports is 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.05 million tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.78 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 112.52 million tons, down 28,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The output of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 71.88%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China is 16.58 million tons, up 1.4 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 1.60%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 638.731 million square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 40.536 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2] Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the inventory in steel mills was 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons; the total inventory was 6.0704 million tons, up 198,500 tons; the apparent demand was 1.948 million tons, up 48,600 tons. This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2%, up 1.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.912 million tons, up 33,000 tons; the inventory of raw coal was 4.716 million tons, up 15,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 771,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the inventory of clean coal was 2.756 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

8月19日，嵊州瑞丰村镇银行发布存款利率公示，该行人民币个人定期存款整存整取三个月、六个月、 一年、二年、三年、五年的年化利率分别调整为0.80%、1.10%、1.15%、1.15%、1.30%、1.30%，较调 整前下降10到20个基点不等。此外，高密惠民村镇银行、贵定恒升村镇银行等银行亦宣布调降部分期限 存款利率。 "我行的三年期定期存款利率，8月20日刚调降10个基点，从1.85%降到了1.75%。"江苏银行北京西城区 某支行理财经理对记者表示。 近期，包括村镇银行、城商行等在内的多家银行，纷纷调降存款利率。 受行业竞争激烈、贷款利率普遍下行等因素影响，银行净息差趋窄。下调存款利率降成本、缓解净息差 压力，成为大多数银行的应对策略。部分银行理财经理透露，未来存款利率仍有调降可能性。 多家银行调降存款利率 "1.85%只有今天！"日前，江苏银行一理财经理发布的朋友圈内容显示，该行三年期定期存款利率将再 次迎来调降。 江苏银行一理财经理8月19日发布的朋友圈 记者实地走访江苏银行北京地区部分网点，江苏银行北京西城区某支行理财经理介绍："除三年期定期 存款利率从原来的1.85%下调至1.75%，降了10个基点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3.0% and for 5 years and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months since a decline in May [1] - Experts indicate that the macroeconomic environment has stabilized in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for further LPR adjustments in the short term [1] - Current loan rates for enterprises and individuals are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] Group 2 - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year is reported at 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [2] - Experts believe there is still potential for LPR to decrease further, especially in the context of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, with expectations of a potential 10 basis points reduction in LPR by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current low levels of both corporate and personal loan rates indicate that lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is not an urgent priority, as the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is diminishing and is not the key factor for stabilizing growth and promoting consumption [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% as of August 20 [1][2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, particularly the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the new pricing anchor for the LPR [3][4]. - The lack of motivation for banks to lower the LPR is due to the historical low net interest margins, which stood at 1.42% in the first half of the year, reflecting a slight decline from the previous quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework has shifted towards "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy," indicating a low probability of further short-term easing measures [5][6]. - Despite the continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance, there is no immediate impetus for active easing, as the central bank is in a relatively comfortable position regarding its multiple objectives [6]. - The necessity for macroeconomic policy adjustments remains, as indicators show some setbacks in the recovery of the real economy, including a decline in retail sales growth and ongoing pressure in real estate investment [7]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Future adjustments to the LPR may depend on external factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a more accommodating environment for domestic monetary policy [7]. - There is a possibility of further downward adjustments to the LPR, particularly for the 5-year and above rates, to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [7].

一是5月降息降准等宽货币工具落地后，总量政策工具进入成效观察期，LPR的定价锚 ——7天期逆回购利率保持稳定； 记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨黄剑 8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布2025年8月贷款市场报价利率 （LPR），其中，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。LPR利率自今年5月下调各10个 基点以来，目前已连续三个月"按兵不动"。 LPR是由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业拆借中心计算 得出，为银行贷款提供定价参考。综合业内分析来看，8月LPR报价保持不变主要有三点原 因： 二是2025年二季度末商业银行净息差进一步降至1.42%，较一季度末下降0.01个百分点， 商业银行缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力； 三是央行在《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》）明确强调要"落 实落细适度宽松的货币政策"，指向后续货币政策重心在于抓好落实，短期内继续加码宽 松的概率不高。 中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬告诉记者，尽管货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调， 但目前央行正处于几大目标的相对"舒适区"，货币政策没有主动宽松的动力，但也不会明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stability in the current economic environment [3][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The unchanged LPR rates align with market expectations, as the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has also remained stable, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for LPR [4]. - The recent increase in market interest rates and the historical low net interest margins for commercial banks have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The stability of LPR is attributed to a moderately strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [5]. - Both corporate and personal loan rates are currently at low levels, suggesting that lowering the LPR is not an urgent priority [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the marginal effects of interest rate cuts are diminishing, and alternative methods to reduce overall financing costs, such as lowering non-interest costs, may be more effective [5]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, potentially leading to a decrease in LPR [5]. - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market, with potential targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - The LPR has remained unchanged for three months since its reduction in May, with industry experts suggesting that there is little necessity for short-term policy adjustments, although further declines in LPR are still possible in the future [1][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR quotation has remained stable for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year [5]. - The recent stability in policy rates has maintained the pricing foundation for LPR, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new pricing anchor [5]. - The current low levels of corporate and personal loan rates, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, indicate a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [5]. Group 2: Future LPR Adjustments - Analysts predict that the LPR linked to housing loans may be adjusted downward in the second half of the year to stabilize the real estate market [2][13]. - Despite the potential for future adjustments, the necessity for a short-term reduction in LPR is considered low, with any adjustments likely to be postponed [8][10]. - The overall monetary policy remains supportive, but the likelihood of aggressive easing measures in the short term is low, as the economy shows signs of recovery [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, suggesting that the pressure to meet annual growth targets is manageable [7]. - The People's Bank of China is in a "comfortable zone" regarding multiple economic targets, indicating no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing [7]. - The potential for further easing measures, such as interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be influenced by external factors, including actions by the Federal Reserve [12][11].