国债期货日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.485 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 81803 | 14928↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.935 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 71725 | 17153↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.462 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 38948 | 9953↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.870 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 94348 | -6605↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.21 | -0.02↓ T12-TL12价差 | -7.39 | 0.28↑ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.24 | -0.02↓ TF12-T12价差 | -2.55 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | -0.01 | -0.02↓ TS12-T12价差 | -6.02 | -0 ...

| | 11/20 3:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/20 待定 美国劳工部统计局：11月20日发布9月非农就业报告 | 国债期货日报 2025/11/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 108.485 0.09% T主力成交量 62429 | -1180↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 105.905 0.05% TF主力成交量 48783 | -3751↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 32335 | -3243↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 116.450 0.33% TL主力成交量 88270 | 7491↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 0.23 +0.00↑ T12-TL12价差 -7.97 | -0.22↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 0.25 +0.02↑ TF12-T12价差 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a 4.8% increase in Q3 alone, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024[4] - The cumulative industrial added value for the first three quarters increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.5% during the same period[4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for five consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%[5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1890 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%[11] Real Estate Market - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with significant declines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively[5] - Second-tier cities saw a 0.4% decrease in new residential sales prices, while third-tier cities experienced the same decline[6] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed weakness, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 2.30 basis points to 1.7680%[15] - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds, with a total operation amount of 6.1 billion yuan for various bond types[6] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 4.00%[24] - In the European market, the 10-year bond yields varied, with Germany's yield stable at 2.58% while Italy and the UK saw declines of 1 basis point[27]

Group 1 - The A500 index components show mixed performance, with Changchuan Technology leading at 20.00% increase, followed by Terui De at 12.77% and Lianang Micro at 10.00%, while Guangxun Technology leads the decline [1] - The A500 ETF fund has an active trading environment, with a turnover rate of 23.5% and a transaction volume of 3.72 billion yuan, ranking first in average daily trading volume among comparable funds at 5.14 billion yuan over the past month [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index account for 19.83% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An, and others [2] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities indicates that the market has strong mid-term upward momentum, with a positive outlook for capital market liquidity and a potential shift of household deposits to equity markets [2] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to further enhance market risk appetite, despite short-term volatility [2] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT, public utilities, and non-ferrous metals [2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on iron ore futures, covering the futures market, spot market, influencing factors, and market outlook [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On August 21, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. The price rose in the night session, fell after the day - session opening, reached a low of 770 points, then rose around 10:15 am, and fell again near the end of the session, closing at 772.5 points with a 0.98% increase. The trading volume was 281,800 lots, a decrease of 7,600 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 11,185 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a reverse market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts rose by 4 to 7.5 points throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 839,690 lots, an increase of 1,746 lots from the previous trading day, with the i2601 contract's open interest increasing by 11,185 lots [5] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 31.6 yuan/ton, a minimum of 23.6 yuan/ton, and 30.4 yuan/ton on the day [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 3,100 lots, a minimum of 2,000 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Macroeconomic Environment Impact - Overseas macro - disturbances: The Fed's July meeting minutes sent hawkish signals, strengthening the US dollar index and suppressing commodity prices. Domestically, the stable LPR rate reflects the expectation of loose monetary policy, increasing market sentiment volatility [9] 3.2 Demand - side Support and Concerns - High hot metal production and decent steel mill profits provide short - term support for iron ore prices. However, with the approaching of a major event on September 3, steel mill production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may be tightened, and port transportation may be restricted, causing concerns about weakening future demand [10] 4. Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract rebounded with narrow fluctuations on the day. The fundamentals are in a weak equilibrium stage of both supply and demand increasing. High hot metal production provides rigid demand support, but supply is rising and inventory accumulation pressure is emerging. Technically, the price shows significant range - bound characteristics, with intense competition in the 770 - 780 yuan/ton range. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose and the market is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, with a 90 - day extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs and an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which are dominated by technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with increases of 49.00, 46.80, 49.60, and 50.80 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 90137.00, and the open interest increased by 4297.00. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 4.80 to - 8.60 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods also rose, with increases of 30.40, 30.60, 29.60, and 29.00 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 45450.00, and the open interest of the current - month and next - month contracts increased, while that of the next - quarter and far - quarter contracts decreased. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from 0.20 to 0.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods increased significantly, with increases of 92.40, 98.00, 94.20, and 103.20 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 77339.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 43.40 to - 37.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods rose, with increases of 88.60, 93.60, 98.40, and 106.60 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 196109.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 50.80 to - 47.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 index increased by 1.23%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.14%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.86%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index showed different degrees of change [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the information technology industry had the highest increase of 2.51%, followed by optional consumption (1.36%), raw materials (1.35%), etc., while the public utilities industry had the lowest increase of 0.16% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 7.17 to - 1.40, and the basis of the IH current - month contract relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.98 to 4.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.51%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.24%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.60% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies are exempt from personal income tax starting from January 1, 2025. The new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of the biomedical industry, and the State Council General Office proposed a classified and hierarchical approach to implement existing PPP projects [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Some platform companies have reported basic information as required, and the tax department will conduct publicity, guidance, and interviews for those that have not. The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new regulations on anti - monopoly in the public utilities sector. Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin and other places have lowered deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points, while many banks have launched large - denomination certificate of deposit products with an annual interest rate of over 2%. In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, a 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease, with the inventory level below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward. The central bank announced the LPR rates for August, which remained unchanged, meeting market expectations. The future implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy will focus on structural easing, reducing the possibility of comprehensive easing, and weakening the expectation of a general decline in policy rates. However, as market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy rates is gradually emerging, limiting the room for further increases in market interest rates, which may maintain high - level fluctuations. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been continuously rising, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July rebounded significantly, indicating that fixed - deposit and bank - wealth - management products and other fixed - income assets were not renewed after maturity, suggesting a possible change in the direction of large - scale asset allocation, which will have a non - negligible impact on the stock and bond markets. In general, treasury bond futures will operate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On August 20, 2025, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce that the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, which would be valid until the next LPR release [4]. - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market at an operating rate of 1.40%, consistent with the previous rate. Data showed that 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On August 7, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also strengthened. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.45%. Domestically, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in July, but the overall production and business activities remained stable, and export growth continued to pick up. Overseas, the US labor market showed weakness, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The overall policy tone of the July Politburo meeting was positive, and the bond market stabilized and rebounded. It is recommended to seize the band - up market and lightly allocate long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL futures all showed slight increases, with T at 108.615 (+0.05%), TF at 105.830 (+0.05%), TS at 102.374 (0%), and TL at 119.380 (+0.03%). T's trading volume decreased by 2,677, while TF, TS, and TL increased by 996, 1,664, and 6,350 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads changed, such as TL2512 - 2509 (-0.34, -0.02↓), T2512 - 2509 (-0.13, +0.01↑) [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with T at 168,650 (-2,279), TF at 116,886 (-4,939), TS at 83,781 (-2,699), and TL at 96,898 (-3,924) [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds increased, such as 220010.IB (6y) at 107.2157 (+0.0637), 250007.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.0373), while 210005.IB (17y) decreased to 134.8686 (-0.0028) [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 0.25bp to 1.3525%, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.40bp, 0.70bp, and 0.70bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 3.12bp to 1.3312%, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3150%. The silver - pledged 7 - day and Shibor 7 - day rates decreased by 0.89bp and 0.80bp respectively [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 160.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 283.2 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will exempt kindergarten tuition fees starting from the senior class to ensure policy sustainability. Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation opinion on promoting the innovation and development of the brain - computer interface industry. From January to July, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On August 7 at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On August 8 at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting in July [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The bond market has been oscillating strongly recently due to loose expectations, with interest rates remaining at a low level. Profit - taking selling may drive short - term interest rates to rise slightly. As the main trading line in the market is unclear due to policy uncertainties in the second half of the year, it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.01%, 0%, 0.01%, 0.04% respectively; T, TS trading volumes decreased by 425 and 1470 respectively, while TF and TL trading volumes increased by 179 and 647 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, TS2512 - 2509 spreads changed by - 0.03, + 0.02, + 0.00, - 0.00 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 spreads changed by + 0.03, - 0.00, - 0.02, - 0.01 respectively [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions changed by - 131, - 3090, + 509, + 110 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 long positions changed by + 6074, + 3199, - 4278, + 4521 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 short positions changed by + 7100, + 4843, + 174, + 6212 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 net short positions changed by + 1026, + 1644, + 4452, + 1691 respectively [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD - Net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB decreased, while 210014.IB increased [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1y, 7y, 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 0.90bp, 0.30bp, 0.25bp respectively, while 3y, 5y yields increased by 0.40bp, 0.20bp respectively [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates increased by 3.12bp, 5.00bp, 5.00bp respectively; Shibor overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, 3.20bp, 0.60bp respectively [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 242 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net回笼 of 21.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on June 23; June LPR quotes remained unchanged; from January to May, national general public budget expenditures increased by 4.2% year - on - year, while revenues decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.10 Market Situation - Domestic: 5 - month economic data was weak, financial data was divided, and exports declined slightly. Overseas: US economic activity slowed down significantly in May, the labor market cooled, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice in the second half of the year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]