成文日期：20250822 报告周期:日度 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 1.2 品种价格 铁矿石期货 12 个合约,价格呈现近强远弱的反向市场格局。全 天各合约普遍上涨，幅度在 4 到 7.5 点。品种持仓量 839690 手、较 上一交易日增加 1746 手，其中铁矿石 2601 合约持仓量增加 11185 手。 图 2：铁矿石期货日行情表 20250821 失矿石期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 数据来源:同花顺期货通行情软件 当日(20250821)，期货品种铁矿石 i2601 合约震荡运行。夜盘 开盘时价格震荡上行，日盘开盘后价格有所回落，最低触及 770 点。 10 点 15 分左右价格震荡向上，临近尾盘又有所回落最终收于 772.5 点，涨幅 0.98%。成交量 28.18 万手，较上一交易日减少了 0.76 万 手，持仓量为 45.16 万手，较前一交易日增加 11185 手。 图 1：铁矿石 i2601 分时图 | 商品名称 | | | | | 合约名称开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 前结算价 结算价 涨跌 涨跌1 成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose and the market is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, with a 90 - day extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs and an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which are dominated by technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with increases of 49.00, 46.80, 49.60, and 50.80 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 90137.00, and the open interest increased by 4297.00. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 4.80 to - 8.60 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods also rose, with increases of 30.40, 30.60, 29.60, and 29.00 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 45450.00, and the open interest of the current - month and next - month contracts increased, while that of the next - quarter and far - quarter contracts decreased. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from 0.20 to 0.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods increased significantly, with increases of 92.40, 98.00, 94.20, and 103.20 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 77339.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 43.40 to - 37.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods rose, with increases of 88.60, 93.60, 98.40, and 106.60 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 196109.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 50.80 to - 47.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 index increased by 1.23%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.14%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.86%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index showed different degrees of change [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the information technology industry had the highest increase of 2.51%, followed by optional consumption (1.36%), raw materials (1.35%), etc., while the public utilities industry had the lowest increase of 0.16% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 7.17 to - 1.40, and the basis of the IH current - month contract relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.98 to 4.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.51%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.24%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.60% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies are exempt from personal income tax starting from January 1, 2025. The new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of the biomedical industry, and the State Council General Office proposed a classified and hierarchical approach to implement existing PPP projects [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Some platform companies have reported basic information as required, and the tax department will conduct publicity, guidance, and interviews for those that have not. The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new regulations on anti - monopoly in the public utilities sector. Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin and other places have lowered deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points, while many banks have launched large - denomination certificate of deposit products with an annual interest rate of over 2%. In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, a 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease, with the inventory level below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward. The central bank announced the LPR rates for August, which remained unchanged, meeting market expectations. The future implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy will focus on structural easing, reducing the possibility of comprehensive easing, and weakening the expectation of a general decline in policy rates. However, as market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy rates is gradually emerging, limiting the room for further increases in market interest rates, which may maintain high - level fluctuations. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been continuously rising, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July rebounded significantly, indicating that fixed - deposit and bank - wealth - management products and other fixed - income assets were not renewed after maturity, suggesting a possible change in the direction of large - scale asset allocation, which will have a non - negligible impact on the stock and bond markets. In general, treasury bond futures will operate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On August 20, 2025, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce that the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, which would be valid until the next LPR release [4]. - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market at an operating rate of 1.40%, consistent with the previous rate. Data showed that 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On August 7, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also strengthened. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.45%. Domestically, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in July, but the overall production and business activities remained stable, and export growth continued to pick up. Overseas, the US labor market showed weakness, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The overall policy tone of the July Politburo meeting was positive, and the bond market stabilized and rebounded. It is recommended to seize the band - up market and lightly allocate long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL futures all showed slight increases, with T at 108.615 (+0.05%), TF at 105.830 (+0.05%), TS at 102.374 (0%), and TL at 119.380 (+0.03%). T's trading volume decreased by 2,677, while TF, TS, and TL increased by 996, 1,664, and 6,350 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads changed, such as TL2512 - 2509 (-0.34, -0.02↓), T2512 - 2509 (-0.13, +0.01↑) [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with T at 168,650 (-2,279), TF at 116,886 (-4,939), TS at 83,781 (-2,699), and TL at 96,898 (-3,924) [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds increased, such as 220010.IB (6y) at 107.2157 (+0.0637), 250007.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.0373), while 210005.IB (17y) decreased to 134.8686 (-0.0028) [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 0.25bp to 1.3525%, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.40bp, 0.70bp, and 0.70bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 3.12bp to 1.3312%, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3150%. The silver - pledged 7 - day and Shibor 7 - day rates decreased by 0.89bp and 0.80bp respectively [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 160.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 283.2 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will exempt kindergarten tuition fees starting from the senior class to ensure policy sustainability. Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation opinion on promoting the innovation and development of the brain - computer interface industry. From January to July, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On August 7 at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On August 8 at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting in July [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The bond market has been oscillating strongly recently due to loose expectations, with interest rates remaining at a low level. Profit - taking selling may drive short - term interest rates to rise slightly. As the main trading line in the market is unclear due to policy uncertainties in the second half of the year, it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.01%, 0%, 0.01%, 0.04% respectively; T, TS trading volumes decreased by 425 and 1470 respectively, while TF and TL trading volumes increased by 179 and 647 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, TS2512 - 2509 spreads changed by - 0.03, + 0.02, + 0.00, - 0.00 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 spreads changed by + 0.03, - 0.00, - 0.02, - 0.01 respectively [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions changed by - 131, - 3090, + 509, + 110 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 long positions changed by + 6074, + 3199, - 4278, + 4521 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 short positions changed by + 7100, + 4843, + 174, + 6212 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 net short positions changed by + 1026, + 1644, + 4452, + 1691 respectively [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD - Net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB decreased, while 210014.IB increased [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1y, 7y, 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 0.90bp, 0.30bp, 0.25bp respectively, while 3y, 5y yields increased by 0.40bp, 0.20bp respectively [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates increased by 3.12bp, 5.00bp, 5.00bp respectively; Shibor overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, 3.20bp, 0.60bp respectively [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 242 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net回笼 of 21.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on June 23; June LPR quotes remained unchanged; from January to May, national general public budget expenditures increased by 4.2% year - on - year, while revenues decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.10 Market Situation - Domestic: 5 - month economic data was weak, financial data was divided, and exports declined slightly. Overseas: US economic activity slowed down significantly in May, the labor market cooled, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice in the second half of the year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations has been largely digested. The bond market is now driven by the money supply and economic fundamentals. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and changes in the money supply. Given the recent underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones and the significant market divergence, there may be no good short-term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long-term bond prices due to short-term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.04%, and 0.1% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 12,841 and 9,425 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1,213 and 6,072 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 all increased by 0.02, while T06 - TL06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 spreads decreased by 0.04, and TF06 - T06 spread remained unchanged [2] - **Open Interest**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract open interests decreased by 225, 1,564, 339, and 2 respectively. T and TL top 20 long positions increased by 3,788 and 1,637 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 long positions decreased by 358 and 1,040 respectively. T and TL top 20 short positions increased by 1,978 and 852 respectively, while TF top 20 short positions increased by 3,052 and TS top 20 short positions decreased by 1,025. T and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 1,810 and 785 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 net short positions increased by 3,410 and 15 respectively [2] CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds, such as 2500802.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB, etc., all showed an upward trend [2] Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds increased by 0.75 - 1.00bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 0.10bp [2] Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates decreased by 1.37bp and 0.20bp respectively, while silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, and silver - pledged 14 - day rates changed by 1.00bp, 2.80bp, and 1.00bp respectively [2] LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 214.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 215.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [2] Industry News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The production index and new order index reached their lowest levels since December 2022 and October 2022 respectively. The US raised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the groundless accusation [2] Key Data to Follow - On June 5th at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31st will be released. On June 6th at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Friday, the A - share market saw an intraday decline. Financial technology and gaming concept stocks had significant pull - backs, while the automotive, gold, and medical sectors led the gains. The overall index is expected to oscillate. With the LPR and deposit rates cut and three - quarters of A - share listed companies achieving profitability in the 2024 annual reports, the market lacks a short - term main line and will mainly move in an oscillatory manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Index Futures Quotes - IH2506 had a contract price of 2,693.00, a decline of 0.82%, and a volume of 39,517. It was at a discount of 18.85 points to the index. - IF2506 had a contract price of 3,846.20, a decline of 0.88%, and a volume of 78,281. It was at a discount of 36.07 points. - IC2506 had a contract price of 5,561.80, a decline of 0.95%, and a volume of 67,871. It was at a discount of 91.24 points. - IM2506 had a contract price of 5,872.00, a decline of 1.30%, and a volume of 167,101. It was at a discount of 117.68 points [3]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The document shows the historical basis and spread data of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 and CSI 500 index futures from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price relationship between different contracts and the underlying index [5][8]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Important Index Daily Returns - Most important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 showed declines on the day, with the CSI 1000 having a relatively large decline of 1.30% [11]. 3.2.2 Style Index Daily Returns - Different style indices, including the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and low - P/E ratio indices, also showed varying degrees of decline [14]. 3.2.3 Industry Index Daily Returns - Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and the automotive industry had positive returns, while most industries like media and communication had negative returns [17][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 AH - Share Premium - The document shows the historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from August 2024 to May 2025, reflecting the price difference between A - shares and H - shares [21]. 3.3.2 Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB) - It presents the historical PE and PB data of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices, which helps in analyzing the valuation levels of different indices [24][26]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals 3.4.1 Stock Market Fund Inflows - The document shows the historical data of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 index from May 2021 to May 2025, which can be used to analyze the relationship between market funds and the index [28]. 3.4.2 Margin Trading Balance - It shows the historical data of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index from May 2021 to April 2025, reflecting the impact of margin trading on the market [30]. 3.4.3 Northbound Capital Flows - It presents the historical data of northbound capital net inflows from May 2021 to August 2024, which can be used to analyze the impact of foreign capital on the A - share market [32]. 3.4.4 Share Unlockings No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [43]. 3.4.5 Funding Costs - It shows the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates from August 2024 to May 2025, reflecting the short - term funding costs in the market [47]. 3.5 Market Sentiment 3.5.1 Trading Activity - It presents the historical turnover rate data of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices, which can be used to analyze market trading activity [50][53]. 3.5.2 Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [55]. 3.6 Other Indicators 3.6.1 Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield - It shows the historical data of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and the 10 - year Treasury yield from January 2015 to January 2025 [59]. 3.6.2 RMB Exchange Rate - It presents the historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate from May 2021 to May 2025, which can be used to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the market [61]. 3.6.3 New Account Openings and Index Tracking No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [62]. 3.6.4 Newly Established Fund Sizes - It mentions the changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, but no detailed data analysis is provided [64][66][68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to buy long IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy long IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [3]. - The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to buy long gold on dips, and temporarily observe silver [8]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand fundamentals and price trends [10][11][14]. - For black building materials, the short - term demand for steel plates and exports may strengthen, but the long - term demand is still under pressure; the prices of other varieties are also affected by supply - demand and external factors [21][22]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost [37][38]. - For agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation and price trends of each variety [48][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Index performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.7 billion yuan, an increase of 83.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news: From January to April, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 4.6% year - on - year; the four major banks announced a reduction in deposit interest rates, and the LPR rate in May decreased by 10 basis points; the EU significantly lowered its economic growth forecast due to tariff impacts [2]. - Capital situation: The margin trading balance increased by 3.597 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 2.80bp to 1.5090%; the credit spread decreased by 1.73bp to 135bp; the Sino - US interest rate spread decreased by 0.57bp to - 276bp [2]. - Trading logic: After the policy support, the risk appetite of the stock market has recovered. It is recommended to buy long IH or IF index futures on dips, or buy long IC or IM futures opportunistically [3]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy long IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market conditions: On Tuesday, the TL main contract fell 0.03%, the T main contract rose 0.03%, the TF main contract fell 0.04%, and the TS main contract fell 0.03% [5]. - News: The LPR decreased by 10 basis points in May; the six major banks announced a reduction in deposit interest rates [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy: The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Market performance: Shanghai gold rose 2.11%, Shanghai silver rose 1.68%; COMEX gold rose 0.30%, COMEX silver rose 0.43% [7]. - Market outlook: Due to Trump's statements, the US fiscal deficit expectation has changed, driving the prices of gold and silver to strengthen. It is recommended to buy long gold on dips and temporarily observe silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price rebounded after a decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the support for copper prices is weakening. It is expected that the rebound of copper prices will not be smooth [10]. - Aluminum: The price recovered. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the seasonal weakness of consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [11]. - Zinc and Lead: After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term sentiment of commodities has improved. The medium - term price of lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong fluctuation [12][13]. - Nickel: The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the price is expected to be bearish [14]. - Tin: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to loosen. If the downstream demand remains weak, the center of tin prices may move down [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand side lacks strong driving forces. The price is at the cost - intensive area, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [16]. - Alumina: There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply ends. It is recommended to observe in the short term [17]. - Stainless Steel: The short - term market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [18]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The price of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel plates and exports may strengthen in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [20][21]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to macro progress and changes in fundamental demand [22]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The price of glass is expected to be weak in the medium term; the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease due to maintenance, but the medium - term supply is still loose, and the price is expected to be weak [23][24]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: It is recommended to observe for both. The demand for manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and the price of ferrosilicon may still face pressure [25][26]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry has obvious over - capacity, and the price may continue to decline. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: There is an expectation of rubber storage and production reduction, but the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish mindset and operate in the short - term [33]. - Crude Oil: The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [36][37]. - Methanol: The price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity after the spread rises [38]. - Urea: The market presents a pattern of both supply and demand being strong. It is recommended to observe and consider buying on dips after a significant correction [39]. - PVC: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage. There are risks in the short term due to the large - scale repair of the valuation [42]. - PTA: The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to risks due to the short - term rise of valuation [43]. - PX: It is in the maintenance season and is expected to reduce inventory in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to risks due to the short - term rise of valuation [44]. - Polyethylene PE: The valuation has limited upward space. The price is expected to be volatile in the long - term [45]. - Polypropylene PP: The price is expected to be volatile and bearish in May [46]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term trend is pessimistic. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [48]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [49]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [50][52]. - Oils and Fats: The price is expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as the recovery of palm oil production and the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy [53][55]. - Sugar: The international market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [56][57]. - Cotton: The short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile due to the improvement of market confidence and the acceleration of inventory reduction [58][59].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China announced a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), bringing them to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first decrease of the year [1] - Major banks in China, including the "Big Four," have followed suit by lowering deposit rates, with the largest cut being 25 basis points [1] - The overall net interest margin for banks is expected to decline further, compressing profitability amid a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Loan Market - Many cities have not reduced mortgage rates following the LPR cut, instead opting to lower the LPR deduction, keeping mortgage rates around 3% [2] - The current loan rate of approximately 3% is seen as the bottom line for banks to maintain profitability in their lending operations [2] Group 3: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - Shanghai ranked first in the 2024 SME Development Environment Assessment, with overall scores improving from 7.46 in 2020 to 8.50 in 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that while the environment for SMEs has improved, there remains a significant regional imbalance, with eastern cities leading [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry - As of April 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles in China reached 3.5 million units, an increase of 150,000 from the previous month, indicating rising inventory levels [5] - The average inventory days for vehicles is now 57 days, slightly higher than the previous years, suggesting increased pressure on sales [5][6] Group 5: Rare Earth Industry - China has implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, leading to a significant increase in prices for certain materials, with prices for dysprosium and terbium rising 2-3 times in Europe [7] - China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth refining capacity, making these measures impactful on the global supply chain [7] Group 6: Technology and Consumer Electronics - Huawei launched its first HarmonyOS computers, with prices starting at 23,999 yuan, marking a significant step in its strategy to reduce reliance on foreign technology [10] - The HarmonyOS ecosystem is still developing, with limited software compatibility posing challenges for user adoption [11] Group 7: Financial Markets - On May 20, the Chinese stock market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38% amid active trading in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [14] - The market is experiencing a period of volatility, with a mix of sector performances and investor sentiment [15]