1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - **Bean No.1**: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - **Hogs**: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - **Inter - variety**: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - **Eggs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - **Feed End**: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil continues to break through and rise. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. Hold long positions and consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The procurement and arrival of domestic rapeseed have decreased, and the inventory has declined from the high point but is still at a relatively high level. The preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the production in early August was poor. The increase in Indonesian export taxes in August may increase Malaysia's export share. Hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense, and there is a concern about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. Hold long positions for the 01 contract of soybean meal, and the 09 contract of bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The potential reduction in rapeseed imports and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and long positions can be held [3][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the South American harvest and the expected increase in US planting area. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and the news of tightening imports. Suggest holding short positions cautiously [6]. - **Bean No. 1**: New soybeans in Hubei and other places are gradually on the market, and the market auction is not good. Try short positions lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory in the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The increase in planting area and the potential impact of drought in some areas. Consider reducing short positions for the 10 contract and shorting on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts [7]. - **Pigs**: The feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. Hold long positions [8]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at the end of the seasonal off - season, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 contract at low positions [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be tried lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and wait and see; Peanuts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and reduce short positions; Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions; Rapeseed oil is expected to rise, and hold long positions; Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal is expected to rise, and try long positions lightly; Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and go long at low positions [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate and sort out, and hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Aquaculture**: Pigs are expected to rebound, and hold long positions; Eggs are expected to find the bottom, and wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, conduct positive spread operations; for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low positions [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some varieties, conduct short - biased or long - biased operations, and for others, wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy Provide the spot price, price change, and basis and its change of various varieties [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, including arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the inventory, startup rate, etc. of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, etc. [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the consumption, inventory, startup rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Aquaculture - Provide the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including price, inventory, production rate, etc. [20][21][22][23][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Aquaculture End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Provide charts of the closing price of the main contracts, spot price, etc. of pigs and eggs [26][28][29][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Provide charts of production, inventory, profit, etc. of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [36][46][50] - **Feed End**: Provide charts of inventory, consumption, profit, etc. of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [54][56][58][65] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options of various varieties [71][73] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties [75][77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market is bullish today, with supply-side bullish factors disturbing market sentiment, and the coking coal supply-demand expectation still supporting prices. However, to break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally bullish. The closing price of rebar is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the main contract of hot-rolled coil closes at 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the main contract of iron ore closes at 796.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rise today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow. Production verification in Shanxi coal mines is advancing, controlling the production of over - producing coal mines in the first half of the year. Some coal mines in Shanxi have issued a 276 - working - day production plan. The expected phased production capacity release is limited. Last week, coal mine output decreased slightly, and the clean coal inventory dropped by 26,000 tons to 2.457 million tons, the lowest since March 2024. The port inventory of imported coking coal decreased significantly by 300,000 tons to 4.6305 million tons, while the daily customs - cleared vehicle number at the Mengmen 288 port has recovered to over 1,300. The blast furnace hot metal output remains above 2.4 million tons, and the sixth round of coke price increase is about to be implemented. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high - level operations. Some offline coal mines have saturated pre - sale orders, supporting coal prices in the short term. However, the speculative demand in the market has cooled down, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced coal is low, and the overall online auction failure rate of coking coal has increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Coke**: Last Friday, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11. Mainstream steel mills postponed the implementation, and the specific implementation time is to be determined. Last week, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide increased by 29 yuan to 16 yuan/ton, the coking enterprise's loss slightly shrank, and the capacity utilization rate slightly rose to 74.03%. The blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills remains above 2.4 million tons, and speculative demand increases with the price rise. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 5.28% to 697,300 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills decreased by 1.18% to 6.1928 million tons. The port coke inventory slightly increased, and the total inventory reached a 7 - month low, but the year - on - year increase expanded to 16.62%. In general, under the background of steel mill production restrictions in the mainstream regions in the second half of the month, coke prices are supported by raw coal costs but also have a certain callback risk, and there is still room for game between coking and steel enterprises [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the price stabilizes from a decline or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]. Summary - Overall, supply - side bullish factors disturb market sentiment, and the coking coal supply - demand expectation still supports prices. The futures market has already priced in part of the supply contraction expectation, and continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is needed to break through the previous high [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - The current pig spot price is weak, with smooth downstream procurement and normal slaughterhouse deliveries. Local epidemics continue to suppress the market. The market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. In August, the slaughter volume of large pig farms is expected to recover, and there is also a need to sell the large pigs previously held back by small farmers. Therefore, the short - term pig price is still not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market offers good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [2]. 2.2 Meal Industry - Trump's statement that he hopes China will significantly increase its imports of US soybeans has improved the export outlook for US soybeans, leading to a sharp increase in US soybean prices. The recent continuous increase in Brazilian soybean premiums has supported domestic import costs, but the improved outlook for US soybean imports may suppress price increases. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, and short - term supply remains at a high level, keeping the spot price under pressure. In terms of operations, the strengthening support from US soybeans limits the downward space for domestic soybean meal on a single - side basis. However, if domestic supply increases, it may affect the trend of the 2601 contract on the futures market. Considering the relatively strong performance of oils, investors holding long positions should be cautious [7]. 2.3 Oil Industry No clear overall core view was found in the oil industry report, but price changes and related data for various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are presented. 2.4 Corn Industry - The current channel inventory of corn is relatively tight, and some traders are willing to support prices. The number of trucks arriving at the market remains low, but the spot price is running weakly due to weak market sentiment and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises and feed companies mainly purchase based on rigid demand, with inventory continuously decreasing and no obvious boost in consumption, resulting in general purchasing enthusiasm. In the substitution market, wheat prices are strongly supported by the government's minimum purchase price policy. The price difference between corn and wheat is within the substitution range, squeezing the demand for corn. In summary, the tight supply of remaining grain supports the price, but the weak market sentiment persists, and the futures price remains in a low - level oscillation. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and the output may increase steadily, resulting in supply pressure and a potential decline in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [17]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The strong production signs have caused the raw sugar price to decline slightly. However, it is worth noting that although Brazil's sugarcane crushing is in full swing and the sugar - making ratio is high, the total sugar production has not increased year - on - year. The expectations of high yields in India and Thailand are high, and attention should be paid to the later weather conditions. It is expected that the raw sugar price will have difficulty falling below the previous low in the short term, but considering the overall production increase pattern, a bearish view should be maintained. The increase in imports and the entry of processed sugar into the market have put pressure on prices. The terminal market demand is average, with most purchases being made as needed, and the willingness to stockpile is low. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to remain bearish [22]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - On the supply side, the spot basis is currently firm. There has been a marginal improvement in the downstream industry this week, but the improvement is not significant. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics in some areas, and the sales of cotton yarn have improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The inventory of finished products has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized, providing some support for the cotton price. However, the overall confidence in the downstream industry is still insufficient, and expectations are not high. As the new cotton harvest season approaches, the expected increase in the output of new - season cotton will bring some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is listed [23]. 2.7 Egg Industry - Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream traders and food factories may replenish their stocks at low prices, increasing the demand for eggs and supporting price increases. However, the high inventory of laying hens ensures sufficient egg supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the price increase. Overall, the egg futures market remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of low - level capital fluctuations [26]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Market - The basis of the main contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.97%. The price of the main contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 14,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 59,598 lots to 59,600 lots, an increase of 1.00% [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend, with price decreases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Slaughter Volume - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 866 to 138,986, an increase of 0.63% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The futures price of M2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 3,094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The basis of M2601 increased by 4 to - 154, an increase of 2.53%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from m2509 - 110 to m2509 - 130. The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, while that for Brazilian October shipments decreased by 12 to 92, a decrease of 11.5%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,950 [7]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%. The futures price of RM2601 increased by 37 yuan/ton to 2,506 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 7 to 154, a decrease of 4.35%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong changed from rm09 - 140 to rm09 - 150. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 30 to 369, an increase of 8.85%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,110 to 9,063, an increase of 129.27% [7]. 3.2.3 Soybeans - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 4,067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%. The basis of the main soybean contract increased by 42 to - 107, an increase of 28.19%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The basis of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 23 to - 66, an increase of 25.84%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 13,123, a decrease of 3.32% [7]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to - 49, a decrease of 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 3 to 267, a decrease of 1.11%. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market decreased by 0.02 to 2.93, a decrease of 0.68%. The oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.007 to 2.75, a decrease of 0.26%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market decreased by 10 to 280, a decrease of 3.45%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 decreased by 21 to 588, a decrease of 3.45% [7]. 3.3 Oil Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton. The futures price of Y2601 increased by 56 yuan/ton to 8,456 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 56 to 154, a decrease of 26.67%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 180 to 09 + 190. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,584 to 21,954, an increase of 7.78% [10]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The futures price of P2509 increased by 238 yuan/ton to 9,218 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65%. The basis of P2509 decreased by 288 to - 238, a decrease of 576.00%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong remained unchanged at 09 + 100. The import cost for Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 60.1 to 9,297.8, a decrease of 0.64%. The import profit for Guangzhou Port in September increased by 298 to - 80, an increase of 78.89%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 1,420, an increase of 149.12% [11]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 9,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The futures price of 01509 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 9,588 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The basis of 01509 decreased by 44 to 52, a decrease of 45.83%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 80 to 09 + 90. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [12]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The soybean oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 to 16, an increase of 33.33%. The palm oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at - 20. The rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 to - 5, a decrease of 138.46%. The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 50 to - 370, an increase of 11.90%. The soybean - palm oil spread of 2509 decreased by 182 to - 762, a decrease of 31.38%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market decreased by 30 to 1,030, a decrease of 2.83%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2509 decreased by 42 to 1,132, a decrease of 3.58% [13]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2509 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2,262 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%. The semi - cabin price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 7 to 38, a decrease of 15.56%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn increased by 3 to 74, an increase of 4.23%. The bulk grain price in Shekou remained unchanged at 2,390 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 19. The CIF price increased by 2 to 1,928, an increase of 0.11%. The import profit decreased by 2 to 462, a decrease of 0.48%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 48 to 198, an increase of 32.00%. The position decreased by 4,383 to 1,706,905, a decrease of 0.26%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 143,037, a decrease of 0.69% [17]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2509 remained unchanged at 2,642 yuan/ton. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,710 yuan/ton. The spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at 68. The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch decreased by 8 to 82, a decrease of 8.89%. The spread between the starch and corn futures decreased by 7 to 380, a decrease of 1.81%. The starch production profit in Shandong increased by 5 to - 103, an increase of 4.63%. The position increased by 3,282 to 299,462, an increase of 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,450 [17]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 remained unchanged at 5,573 yuan/ton. The price of sugar 2509 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract increased by 0.27 cents/pound to 16.54 cents/pound, an increase of 1.66%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 2 to - 105, an increase of 1.87%. The position of the main contract increased by 6,182 to 307,158, an increase of 2.05%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 305 to 18,240, a decrease of 1.64%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [22]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The spot price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,825 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 68 to 282, a decrease of 19.43%. The basis in Kunming increased by 2 to 147, an increase of 1.38%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%. The import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 35 to - 1,562, an increase of 2.19%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 24 to - 376, an increase of 6.00% [22]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,1

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market anticipates a significant increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, leading to a substantial rebound in the US dollar index, which is bearish for gold. The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict also favors risk - assets and is negative for safe - haven assets like gold [1]. - Polypropylene开工率上升，整体供应充足，商业库存增加，预计PP 01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力7135一线 [1]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate. Although global iron ore shipments are rising, attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term due to reduced supply expectations and rising factory prices, along with cost support [4]. - After consecutive price increases, coke production has rebounded, and the sixth round of price increases has started. Although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term due to better - than - expected MPOB data and the influence of Indonesia's B50 news [6][7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias. Although there is liquidity support, the economic resilience favors risk - assets [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 2495. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 1355. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. In October, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.1% [1]. - Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [1]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 7058 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.77%, up 1.34% from the previous day. The average downstream industry start - up rate is 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The commercial inventory is 85.66 million tons, up 5.61 million tons week - on - week, and the two - oil polyolefin inventory is 83.5 million tons, up 9 million tons week - on - week [1]. - It is expected that the commercial inventory will remain at a high level in the short term, and the PP 01 contract will oscillate, with an upper pressure at 7135 [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4th to 10th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and at the six northern ports, it was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. Rebar - On August 11th, the domestic steel market mainly rose. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billets increased by 40 to 3100 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and one lowered it by 20 yuan/ton. Baosteel raised the ex - factory price of plates in September, with the base price of thick plates and hot - rolled products increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3408 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [4]. Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 2 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 49 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 82 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 22 yuan/ton [4]. - The sixth round of price increases has started, and although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. Pig - On August 11th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.15, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 114.35. As of 14:00, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 1.0% decrease from last Friday; the egg price was 7.55 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from last Friday [5]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. Silver - Trump's team is expanding the list of candidates for the Fed chair. The White House may announce the candidate this fall [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's July crude palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; imports were 61,000 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase [6]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of August 8th, the rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 138,800 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 69,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week [8]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2374 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The sample inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week - on - week. The sample production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons week - on - week. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% week - on - week. The 1.2 million - ton/year methanol plant of Yanchang Zhongmei is expected to complete maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, an increase of 0.85% week - on - week [9]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 2495 [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1336 yuan/ton, recently oscillating with a downward bias. The weekly soda ash production is 744,600 tons, a 6.4% increase from the previous period. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.8651 million tons, a 3.86% increase week - on - week. The float glass start - up rate is 75.19%, a 0.19% increase week - on - week. The average national float glass price is 1181 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 61.847 million weight cases, a 3.95% increase week - on - week [10]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 1355 [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and grains. It also covers important fundamental information such as weather conditions in the US and their impact on crops, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the futures market. The information is useful for investors to understand the current situation and potential trends in the commodities market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 10 was 4254.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.31%. Brent 10 on ICE closed at 66.32, down 0.14% previously and up 0.15% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 09 closed at 63.35, down 0.74% previously and 0.31% overnight. CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 986.50, down 0.80% previously and 0.65% overnight [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.25, up 0.19% in ten days. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1382, up 0.05%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2218, up 0.11%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16186, down 0.40%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.3808, down 0.73%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1325.000, down 0.08%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2812, down 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 9170 with a basis of 120 and no daily change; in East China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change; in South China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 8500 with a basis of 84, down 26; in Jiangsu, it was 8600 with a basis of 184, down 96; in Guangdong, it was 8620 with a basis of 204, up 24; in Tianjin, it was 8520 with a basis of 104, down 36 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2910 with a basis of - 125, up 2; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 with a basis of - 115, down 8; in Guangdong, it was 2910 with a basis of - 125, down 18; in Tianjin, it was 3000 with a basis of - 35, up 12 [2]. - The CNF quote for imported Brazilian soybeans was 481 dollars/ton with a CNF premium of 315 cents/bushel [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - From August 13 - 17, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally high. The western part of the US Midwest has active rainfall, while the eastern part is relatively dry. Rainfall is beneficial for corn and soybean crops in the northern Great Plains and Midwest [3][5][6]. - In the past week, US temperatures were 1 - 8°F lower than normal, and rainfall in the northwest, northern Great Plains, and southeast was 10 - 85 mm higher than normal. In the next 15 days, US temperatures will be 2 - 6°F higher than normal, and the northern Great Plains and Midwest are expected to have 20 - 75 mm more rainfall than normal [6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 are estimated at 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [8]. - As of the week ending August 5, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 5999 to 156793, and short positions increased by 22377 to 195953. Similar changes occurred in other related contracts [8]. - The barge freight rate in the middle of the Mississippi River decreased by 5% week - on - week. A section of the Mississippi River was closed, which may delay the transportation of grains from Midwest farms to the US Gulf [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending July 31 decreased by 52.1% to 26,400 tons. From August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, exports were 9.5186 million tons, a 38.8% increase from the previous year. As of July 31, the commercial inventory was 1.1432 million tons [9]. - France raised its rapeseed production forecast for this year from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Russia is expected to produce 5 million tons of rapeseed this year [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for three consecutive days, with the Capesize and Supramax indices driving the increase [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 8, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 39,933 tons, a 227% increase from the previous trading day [11]. - On August 8, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 52,500 tons, a decrease of 53,100 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.17%, up 1.56% from the previous day [11]. - From August 2 - 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [11]. - As of the week ending August 8, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 45.13 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 134.14 yuan/head [12]. - In July 2025, the average monthly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces was 19.14 yuan/kg, a 3.1% increase month - on - month and a 22.7% decrease year - on - year [12]. - On August 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.94, up 0.02 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - Fed Governor Bowman believes that recent downward revisions to employment growth data highlight the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. She expects to support rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [15]. - St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the Fed faces dual risks in achieving its inflation and employment goals [15]. - The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of - 0.2% [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 8, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1382, up 37 points (RMB depreciation) [17]. - On August 8, the People's Bank of China conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [17]. - China's CPI in July was 0% year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1% [17]. 3.5 Capital Flows - On August 8, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 8.126 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.801 billion yuan, including 1.151 billion yuan in agricultural products, 827 million yuan in chemicals, a net outflow of 777 million yuan in black - series commodities, and 601 million yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 9.927 billion yuan [20]. - Commodities with large capital inflows included lithium carbonate (1.3 billion yuan), gold (1.152 billion yuan), and crude oil (464 million yuan). Those with large outflows included CSI 500 stock index futures (- 2.388 billion yuan) and CSI 300 stock index futures (- 3.029 billion yuan) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will gain upward space [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.47 dollars, a 0.74% decline, to 63.35 dollars; Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.09 dollars, a 0.14% decline, to 66.32 dollars; INE main crude oil futures fell 11.20 yuan, a 2.24% decline, to 489.8 yuan [1] - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.39 million barrels, a 3.85% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.25 million barrels to 13.16 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 6.55 million barrels, a 5.20% increase; naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels to 4.96 million barrels, a 6.13% decline; aviation kerosene increased by 0.31 million barrels to 6.79 million barrels, a 4.74% increase; total refined oil increased by 0.19 million barrels to 40.85 million barrels, a 0.46% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production resumed its decline, but enterprise profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory accumulation accelerated due to faster unloading and MTO device shutdowns. Inland inventory decreased due to olefin procurement, with less pressure. Methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1728 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [5] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continued to decline, and enterprise profits were at a low level but expected to bottom out and rebound. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is increasing, and future demand will focus on compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [7] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in seasonal, demand, and production - reduction expectations; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and less - than - expected production reduction. As of August 7, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from last year. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from last year. As of August 3, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 tons, a 0.4% decline [7][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on quick trades. Consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PVC09 contract fell 53 yuan to 4993 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4890 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 103 (+ 33) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 (- 14) yuan/ton [9] - **Analysis**: Cost remained stable, production rate increased to 79.5%, downstream production rate was 42.9%. Factory inventory was 33.7 (- 0.8) tons, and social inventory was 77.7 (+ 5.4) tons. Enterprise profits reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the short - term outlook is poor. Observe whether exports can reverse the inventory situation [9] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level for the same period, with room for upward correction [11] - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and cost support remained. Pure benzene production decreased slightly, and supply was still abundant. Styrene production continued to increase, and port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the three S industries was in the off - season. After inventory reduction, the price may follow the cost trend [11][12] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in Q3, and cost support remains [14] - **Analysis**: Spot prices fell, and PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventory is high, and demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. In August, there is a 110 - ton production capacity plan. The price will be determined by the cost and supply [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, and production is expected to increase [15] - **Analysis**: Demand is in the off - season. In August, there is a 45 - ton production capacity plan. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price will be dominated by cost and is expected to follow the oil price [15] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PX09 contract fell 30 yuan to 6726 yuan, the PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 831 dollars, and the basis was 111 (- 41) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 50 (+ 4) yuan [17] - **Analysis**: China's PX production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; Asia's was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had production rate adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In July, South Korea's PX exports to China increased by 3.4 tons year - on - year. Inventory decreased by 21 tons in June. PX production remains high, and downstream PTA has short - term maintenance. PX inventory is expected to continue to decline, and valuation has support [17][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PTA09 contract fell 4 yuan to 4684 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 18 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+ 18) yuan [20] - **Analysis**: PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some devices had production rate adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased by 3.5 tons on August 1. PTA processing fees have limited space, and future demand depends on order improvement [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the EG09 contract fell 12 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4465 yuan, the basis was 75 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 4) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: Supply decreased to 68.4%, with some device adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Valuation is relatively high, and the short - term outlook is weak [21]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [4][5]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more apparent, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [4]. - Domestic cable operating rates have rebounded but remain significantly lower than the same period last year, with air conditioning production expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [5]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [5]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 21 CNY/ton this week [6]. - China's refined copper production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting - The TC spot price was -38 USD/ton, reflecting a 4 USD/ton increase from the previous week, but still at a low level not seen since September 2007 [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in July was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [7]. Demand - Cable operating rates increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October, with refrigerator production also showing a downward trend [8]. Futures Market - The open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [9][10].