1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is currently experiencing a double reduction in supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to deplete, but strong cost support below, so the short - term market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the north [2]. - Polysilicon currently has weak supply and demand and inventory pressure, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract oscillated, closing at 8,605 yuan/ton on January 16 [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6]. Supply - In Xinjiang, there are both production increases and decreases, with an overall reduction. It is rumored that ore mining is restricted due to weather, and large factories may shut down about 30 furnaces. In Yunnan, production is mainly for integrated supporting or long - term order delivery, and in Sichuan, only a sample large factory is in production. The overall output of industrial silicon has continued to decline month - on - month [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the number of operating furnaces of industrial silicon nationwide was 227, a decrease of 7 from the previous week; the operating rate was 28.16%, a decrease of 0.87%; the weekly output was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [17]. Demand - The start - up of polysilicon is weak, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down from the middle of the month, and the output is expected to decline. The start - up of organic silicon remains stable, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly before the Spring Festival. The price of aluminum alloy ingots has risen with the price of aluminum, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation has been lowered. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon nationwide was 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [2]. Spread - As of January 16, 2026, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [10]. Polysilicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type dense material was 59,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract corrected from a high level, closing at 50,200 yuan/ton on January 16 [3]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of N - type re - fed material was 61,000 yuan/ton, the price of N - type mixed material was 56,500 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type granular material was 58,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [13]. Supply - The expected output of polysilicon in January is 104,800 tons. Due to the gradual shutdown of some leading enterprises from the middle of the month, the output in February may be less than 90,000 tons [3]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises' quotations remain high at 63 - 65 yuan/kg, but downstream silicon wafer enterprises are holding down prices and waiting and seeing. Actual transactions are mainly for executing previous orders and a small number of scattered orders. Although there is a rush - to - install demand before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April, the terminal is still in the off - season, the price increase has not been passed on to silicon wafers, the crystal - pulling link is suffering serious losses, and the acceptance of high - priced polysilicon is low. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 297,100 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous week [21]. Downstream Silicon Wafers - As of January 16, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475 and 1.675 yuan/piece respectively, unchanged from last week. The silicon wafer market is generally stable, leading enterprises' quotations remain stable, the transaction prices of second - and third - tier enterprises have declined slightly. In the terminal off - season, buyers strongly resist high prices, battery factories have good profits and maintain small - order procurement for rigid demand [24]. Battery Cells - As of January 16, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.405, 0.405, 0.405 and 0.405 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.02 yuan/watt from last week. The battery cell market continues to strongly support prices. Exporters are locking in export orders in advance to cope with the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy on April 1, and the export price is significantly higher than the domestic sales price [28]. Components - As of January 16, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.72, 0.735, 0.72 and 0.735 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.035, 0.03, 0.035 and 0.03 yuan/watt from last week. Affected by the upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, component manufacturers generally raised their quotations [32]. Organic Silicon - As of January 16, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. Recently, the profit of organic silicon monomer factories has improved, and the start - up has remained stable [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of aluminum continues to be strong, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation of alloy enterprises has been lowered [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Friday night saw a sharp decline, erasing the previous week's gains. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors offer long - term demand support, while traditional electronics and white - goods sectors are weak [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom of copper is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Short - term price strength is due to global inventory imbalances and supply concerns. However, real - terminal demand is weak, and prices may return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - The nickel market is mainly affected by macro factors and Indonesian ore quota news. Although ore - end news provides some support, most of it has been digested. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The lower support comes from tight domestic zinc ore supply, and the upper pressure comes from expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with support around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows some resilience in the off - season. However, with high valuations, there is resistance to further price increases. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract running between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a high - level oscillation, with the ADC12 price in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, imported supply, and downstream pre - holiday stockpiling [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Attention should be paid to ore - end news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - In the polysilicon market, demand is expected to improve due to export - rush demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling period and monitor production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: November tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and December SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69%, and social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: December electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and November imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 18.75% [5]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: December refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and November exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.08% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: December lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: December lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: December alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum decreased [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: December recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the industry's operating rate decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: December 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon feedstock average price increased by 0.18% to 54850 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and imports decreased by 27.05% [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.10 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: December national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy chemicals showed a significant decline, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures main contract opening at 4203.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 2.71% [1] - The highest price for LPG futures reached 4208.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 4115.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Petrobras (Brazilian National Oil Company) projected a total oil and gas production of 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2025, exceeding its targets [2] - The Russian Ministry of Finance reported that the country's budget received 8.48 trillion rubles (approximately 108 billion USD) in oil and gas tax revenue last year, marking a 24% decrease from 2024 and the lowest level since 2020 [2] - The EIA reported that as of January 9, the total U.S. natural gas inventory was 31,850 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 710 billion cubic feet from the previous week, but an increase of 330 billion cubic feet year-on-year, reflecting a 1.0% increase [2] Group 3 - Market outlook for LPG futures indicates a bearish trend, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward price adjustment expected [3] - Zhonghui Futures noted that the cost side of oil prices has increased uncertainty in the short term, while the overall market sentiment remains bearish [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that short-term supply and demand pressures are manageable, but volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, is expected to result in wide fluctuations in LPG prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase long [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2] - Urea: Bullish with oscillations [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different products show various trends due to their unique fundamentals. For example, crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions; while some products like PX/PTA and urea have certain upward expectations under specific supply - demand and cost conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, WTI dropped 4.52%, Brent dropped 4.15%, and SC rose 0.60%. As of January 2, US crude inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [9][10][12]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, but there is still uncertainty. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of oil, with global oil inventories accelerating accumulation, and US oil and refined product inventories both increasing, leading to significant downward pressure on oil prices [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, and oil prices are entering a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there may be a rebound, but in the medium - and long - term, prices are under pressure. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [13]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the PG main contract closed at 4244 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [16]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost of crude oil, and in the long - term, crude oil is under pressure. The commodity volume is stable, and downstream chemical demand has resilience, providing some support. As of January 16, the inventory in refineries and ports decreased [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost of crude oil has increased uncertainty. Focus on the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [18]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price increased, the basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. The shutdown ratio has risen to 14%, and the planned device maintenance is increasing this week, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has decreased to a low level in the same period. Considering the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and the chemical sector is in a bullish atmosphere, the market is expected to repair profits [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being destocked. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. In January, the demand side is entering the off - season, the shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PP [6450 - 6650] [26]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased slightly, the basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventory has reached a high level, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to weakening export demand in the long - term. In the short - term, there is an expectation of rush - exporting. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of V [4700 - 4900] [29]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price rose, the basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee was 388.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee was 402.0 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has high - intensity maintenance overall, and some devices have recovered this week. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. Pay attention to the seasonal decline in polyester production [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of TA05 [4960 - 5080] [32]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 157 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan/ton [33]. - **Main Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The domestic operating load has increased, and the overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken seasonally. The port inventory has continued to increase. It has no upward momentum in the short - term and will fluctuate following the cost [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3730 - 3820] [35]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose, the port basis weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened [38]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operating load remains at a high level in the same period, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The import volume in January is expected to be about 750,000 tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has slightly improved, but the overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between the weak reality and strong expectation. The geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the trading logic should return to the fundamentals. Focus on the range of MA05 [2210 - 2280] [40]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 27 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 yuan/ton [41][43]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall operating load has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand side is weakening, and the winter off - season storage has limited positive effects. However, the domestic and foreign arbitrage window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The positive impact of winter storage is limited, but the export window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply pressure. Focus on the range of UR05 [1770 - 1810] [44]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the NG main contract closed at 3.120 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 8.75% from the previous day [47]. - **Main Logic**: The supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand remains stable. The price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [2.725 - 3.370] [48]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The BU main contract closed at 3167 yuan/ton on January 15, down 0.03%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [51]. - **Main Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is still uncertain, and the raw material is tight. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, and the oil price has fallen. The comprehensive profit is stable. The supply has increased, and the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply side has increased uncertainty. Pay attention to risks. Focus on the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [53]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at the highest level in the same period, and the market fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand is weak, and the three - process profit has turned negative. The weak demand restricts the upward space [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [57]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Main Logic**: The factory inventory has increased against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillations. The demand support for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The long - term supply is loose, and the demand support is weak [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [61].

Group 1: Market Overview - The strong US dollar is suppressing metal valuations, leading to a significant decline in tin prices, with LME tin closing at $52,775, down $1,225 or 2.27% from the previous trading day [1] - The LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 5,925 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The recent price correction in tin is attributed to a combination of policy changes, macroeconomic factors, fundamental supply-demand shifts, and market sentiment adjustments [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global tin supply is showing signs of marginal easing, particularly with stable recovery in Myanmar's Wa region and steady output from domestic smelters [2] - The previously declining exchange inventory is now showing accumulation signals, which alleviates earlier concerns about resource scarcity [2] - Tin consumption is facing dual pressures from traditional seasonal slowdowns and insufficient support from emerging sectors, leading to a cautious approach in procurement by downstream enterprises [2] Group 3: Industry Leaders - Industry leaders, such as Tin Industry Co., are demonstrating strong profitability during high price cycles and are focusing on resource allocation to strengthen long-term advantages [3] - Tin Industry Co. achieved impressive performance and financial optimization in the first three quarters due to high tin prices, while also enhancing resource security through new mining quotas and comprehensive resource utilization [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Forecast - The spot market is experiencing low trading activity, with price reductions prompting traders to offer discounts, yet downstream purchasing remains cautious, primarily driven by essential needs [3] - In the short term, tin prices are expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern due to multiple pressures from policy adjustments, a strong dollar, and weakening fundamentals [3] - In the medium to long term, supply constraints from Indonesia and incremental demand from emerging sectors will be key supports for prices, with the ability to return to an upward trend dependent on inventory trends [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures**: China's central bank has introduced eight structural optimization policies, signaling a shift from chasing liquidity to focusing on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. The RMB exchange rate maintains two - way flexibility, and the central bank has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. China's exports are expected to remain resilient, and the monetary policy will stay moderately loose. For RMB exchange rates, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations without changing the medium - to - long - term trends. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Commodities** - **New Energy**: For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics in the short term, and consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon in the medium - to - long term [12][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan; for aluminum, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; for alumina, it is expected to be oscillating and weakening; for zinc, it is expected to be oscillating strongly; for nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be oscillating and adjusting; for tin, it is recommended to go long on dips; for lead, it is expected to be oscillating strongly [17][19][22]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds**: For oilseeds, the external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. For oils, the short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [24][25][27]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas**: For fuel oil, beware of geopolitical fluctuations and consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction. For asphalt, pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [29][30][33]. - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium are expected to continue their bull market in the medium - to - long term. Gold and silver are in an upward - biased pattern, and it is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [35][36][38]. - **Chemicals**: For pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips. For LPG, follow geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance. For PTA - PX, do not chase long positions at high valuations. For MEG - bottle chips, it is in a weak pattern, and it is recommended to wait for macro - policy changes. For methanol, do not short. For PE, it is expected to decline. For pure benzene - styrene, styrene is running strongly. For rubber, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [39][42][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and glass is facing high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to be weakly oscillating [57][58][59]. - **Propylene**: It fluctuates with costs, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes [59][60]. - **Black Metals**: For steel products, the downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers, and the price will oscillate. For iron ore, the price is expected to decline in the short term. For coking coal and coke, the supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve [61][62][64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities**: For live pigs, the market is oscillating, and it is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000. For cotton, there is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. For sugar, the short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. For rubber, it oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see. For apples, it may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. For red dates, the price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. For logs, the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to consider short positions around 800 [65][67][75]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank has introduced eight measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and a reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and the Fed's stance on interest rates is divided. The US is facing multiple issues such as stagflation, institutional disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. China's exports in 2025 maintained medium - to - high - speed growth, and the full - year social financing increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again. The impact of external factors on A - shares is limited [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Logic**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Risk Factors**: Pay attention to the rhythm and amplitude of pre - Spring Festival price cuts by shipping companies, geopolitical fluctuations, and the guidance of shipping companies' February opening prices and actual shipment volume data in late January [14]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is in a "not - so - off - season" state. The futures volatility is at a historical high. It is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics. In the medium - to - long term, consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon [13][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The decline in copper prices is limited due to the small amount of available goods. Do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan. Enterprises in need of spot procurement can consider constructing option strategies [16][17]. - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina is expected to be oscillating and weakening; casting aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Pay attention to the impact of policies such as tariffs and export tax rebates [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although the fundamentals have the potential to go long, there is significant hedging pressure above [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be oscillating and adjusting. The quota issuance rhythm is the core factor, and the new energy demand may be favorable [20][21]. - **Tin**: It may still have upward momentum after a short - term callback. It is recommended to go long on dips [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price is expected to be range - bound in 2026 [23]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. Pay attention to the progress of Chinese soybean purchases and the supply situation of Brazilian soybeans [24][25]. - **Oils**: The short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to origin information and international relations. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is affected by sanctions, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors at the bottom. Consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the spot price has a certain bottom support. Pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [31][33][34]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US tariff policy has changed, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains. Pay attention to international market prices [35][36]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price fluctuates greatly. The medium - to - long - term trend is upward. It is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [36][37][38]. Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The pulp market is bearish, but there is a possibility of a rebound at a low level. The offset paper market is neutral - bearish. It is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors and domestic device maintenance. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PTA's over - supply situation has been alleviated, but the upside of processing fees is limited. PX is in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. Do not chase long positions at high valuations [43][44][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand - side negative feedback is intensifying, and the market is in a weak pattern. Wait for macro - policy changes [45][46]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical logic continues. Although the MTO side's shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, do not short [47]. - **PE**: The market is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to decline [48][49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation and follows cost fluctuations. Styrene is running strongly due to export news and downstream buying [50]. - **Rubber**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [50][54][55]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The new production capacity is being released, and the market is in an over - supply situation. The price is restricted by high inventory [57]. - **Glass**: There are still some production line cold - repairs to be realized before the Spring Festival. The market is facing high inventory pressure [58]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak state, and the demand side is expected to weaken further. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [59]. Propylene - It fluctuates with costs. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes. The supply - demand situation is still relatively loose, but the pressure has improved [59][60]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers. The price will oscillate. The short - term price range of the rebar 2605 contract is expected to be between 3050 - 3200 yuan, and that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract is expected to be between 3200 - 3350 yuan [61]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are weakening. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but the downside is limited [61][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve. Pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The market is oscillating. It is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000 [65][66]. - **Cotton**: There is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. Pay attention to downstream imports and orders [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [67][69]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [70][74][75]. - **Apples**: It may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. Pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking situation [75][76]. - **Red Dates**: The price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to downstream procurement [77][78]. - **Logs**: The price will oscillate strongly. The upside is limited by the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. Consider short positions around 800 and option double - selling strategies [78][79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: There is volatility in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [2]. - Zinc: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [2]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [2]. - Aluminum: It is under slight pressure; Alumina is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upward [2]. - Palladium: It is following the upward oscillation [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is operating in a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is in a game about Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session closing price was 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. The trading volume and positions of both gold and silver futures decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was unchanged, while Comex gold inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 80,956 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 9703 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in the previous day) decreased by 1,311,010 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4][6][11][15][20]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 102,560, with a 1.26% daily decline, and the night - session closing price was 102860 with a 0.29% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 48,394, and the position decreased by 14,853 [7]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 13,378 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 500 tons. The spread of LME copper and other related spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China lowered interest rates; the US employment market remained resilient; the copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese customers in 2026 reached a new high; the copper production of Codelco in November decreased by 3%; the US government may lift the mining ban; Codelco proposed a 1.3 - billion - dollar plan to extend the life of a copper mine; the State Grid plans to increase fixed - asset investment [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 25090, with a 2.51% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 259257, and the position increased by 22673 [10]. - **News**: The Trump administration decided not to impose tariffs on key minerals for the time being; the central bank lowered interest rates and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates further [11][13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17550, with a 0.95% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract increased by 40261, and the position increased by 7992 [14]. - **Inventory and News**: The inventory of LME Lead decreased by 3800 tons. The central bank lowered interest rates, and the US employment market remained resilient [14][15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 433.000, with a 4.80% increase, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a 3.27% decline. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 187.519 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the innovation of state - owned enterprises; Goldman Sachs planned to issue at least 12 billion US dollars in bonds; the central bank lowered interest rates; the demand for AI chips was strong [18][19][20][21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 24375, with a decrease of 220. The prices of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed to varying degrees [24]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of LME Aluminum decreased by 0.20 million tons. Various spreads also had different changes [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: China's social financing scale increased significantly in 2025; the Pentagon adjusted the aircraft - carrier strike group, and Iran temporarily closed its airspace [25]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 609.05, with a 3.43% decline; the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 478.60, with a 3.41% decline. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed compared to the previous day [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump postponed the decision on military strikes against Iran; the US mortgage rate dropped to a three - year low; the US planned to establish a strategic reserve for key minerals; the US initial jobless claims were lower than expected; the Chinese central bank introduced measures to support the economy [30][31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 146,750, with an increase of 5,810; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,415, with an increase of 490. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [33]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore price formula, lower the production target, and some mines faced fines [33][34][36].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.