美元这样搞，黄金怎么办？ 一是：目前市场上几乎清一色卖出美元的声音，尤其是散户，做空美元成了共识。这往往是危险的信号，一般市场很少和散户预期的一致，很多时候和散 户预期的相反。目前美元有点矛盾。技术面，日线图，很像上升三角形，上升三角形是个经典图形。 | | | 97.5321 96.4511 T 95.3702 95.5667 2026/01/01 2026/01/19 2026/02/05 2026/02/24 MACD = [12,26,9] MACD:0.291 DIFF:-0.064 DEA:-0.209 0.643 0.99911111111111111 -0.643 KDJ = [9,3,3] K:77.8866 D:67.3563 J:98.9472 20.00 [6,12,24] RSI6:71.3844 12:57.1166 24:50.8047 RSI ~ 25.6万 6.8798 离岸 -0.1307% 设自选 功能 评论 与家 V 一是：美元涨，黄金不一定就跌。这两年，黄金和美元同时上涨存在很多次。不是说美元涨了，黄金就跌了，就能高杠杆做空黄金。地缘冲突、美债压力 等风险依然存在，资 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.02%报 108.500 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.175 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.450 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 24 日以 ...

黄金回调附近5120做多，止损20个点，目标5200附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大 宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对 这种即将选择方向的行情节奏把握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情 的启动点。 消息面共振利好黄金上行，支撑多单看向5200附近目标。美联储内部降息分歧虽存，但市场普遍预期6月 将启动降息，宽松预期长期支撑金价走强；同时美元长期贬值趋势明确，财政赤字高企、去美元化浪潮 推进，进一步提升黄金避险与保值需求。此外，全球顶级投行密集释放看多信号，瑞银、高盛等均看好 黄金中期上行，叠加当前金价回调已消化短期波动情绪，日内反弹动能充足，5200附近作为前期震荡高 位及日内回调前的关键压力位，成为短期合理反弹目标。 国际黄金技术面呈现明确回调企稳信号，为5120附近做多提供支撑。截至当日7时，伦敦金现报5119.33美 元/盎司，回调幅度达2.21%，最低触及5093.17美元/盎司，5120附近已接近日内回调低位，且处于前期震 荡区间下沿，形成有效技术支 ...

尽管金价大涨，但国内市场的表现却呈现出"冰火两重天"的景象。 对于投资者而言，银行的投资金条和黄金ETF是主要的渠道。 今天，工商银行"如意 金"的投资金条价格大约在1166元每克，紧紧跟随国际大盘价格，溢价很低。 黄金ETF在二级市场也可以方便地交易。 这部分市场交易活跃，反映了强 烈的资产配置需求。 然而，对于想要购买金饰的消费者来说，感受就完全不同了。 品牌金店的零售价虽然也叫"足金"，但价格远高于投资金条。 就在今天，2026年2月24日，农历正月初八，很多人开工第一天还在收心，黄金市场却已经"炸了锅"。 国际金价盘中直线飙升，一举突破5240美元每盎 司，创下三周以来的新高。 国内虽然因为春节假期刚刚开市，但上海黄金交易所的黄金T D价格也站上了1150元每克。让人直观感受到"金贵"的是街边 的品牌金店，周大福、老凤祥这些店的足金零售价普遍突破了1550元每克，有些甚至标到了1603元。这意味着，如果你今天走进金店想买一个30克的金 手镯，光是黄金原料的成本就超过了4.5万元。 然而，就在这一片涨声之中，顶级投行高盛却发出了一个截然不同的警告：金价短期内可能闪崩，下行 边界看向4700美元。 一边是 ...

回到2月24日的盘面，金价在暴跌后，在5140至5160美元区域似乎找到了暂时的支撑。 许多市场分析师 在早盘就将这个区间标记为关键的短期支撑带。 有交易员分享，他在金价跌至5160美元时尝试布局了 第一笔多单，但因为下跌动能太强，这笔单子被打掉了止损。 随后他在5146美元左右再次进场做多。 盘中的快速波动让挂单变得非常困难，价格变化的速度几乎没有给投资者留下反应时间。 2026年2月24日，国际黄金市场一开盘就上演了惊心动魄的一幕：金价从5249.29美元的高点急速跳水， 最低砸到5144.77美元，短短时间内波动超过一百美元。 这可不是普通的震荡，而是一次实实在在的"闪 崩"。 国内黄金价格也跟着一起栽了跟头，上海黄金交易所的黄金价格从开盘的1158.50元/克最低跌到 了1139.00元/克。 很多人一觉醒来，发现账户里的数字缩水了一大截。 这背后，是中东火药桶的引线滋 滋作响，还有美联储即将换帅带来的巨大不确定性。 这波下跌的直接导火索，是市场对前一天暴涨行情的获利了结。 就在2月23日，现货黄金刚刚暴涨了 119.56美元，收盘报5226.73美元/盎司，创下了三周以来的新高。 推动那天大涨的原因 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policy, with prices showing a "roller coaster" trend during the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 24, domestic markets opened strongly after the holiday, with gold futures rising by 3.52% to 1150.50 yuan per gram, and silver futures increasing by nearly 13% to 22327 yuan per kilogram [1] - Platinum and palladium also saw gains, with platinum futures up 5.54% to 551.85 yuan per gram and palladium futures up 4.57% to 438.45 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was reported at 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5% and the revised Q3 figure of 4.4% [2] - U.S. inflation remains persistent, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% in Q4 2025, up from 2.8% previously, while the core CPI for January fell to 2.5%, the lowest in nearly five years [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [3] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected to be a key characteristic of the precious metals market in 2026, with analysts suggesting that investors should manage their positions carefully [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the macro structural factors supporting gold remain intact, including ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4] Group 5: Investment Sentiment - A global fund manager survey by Bank of America indicated that "long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, reflecting high institutional interest in gold assets [5]

眼瞅着再过一个月，特朗普的专机就要往北京飞了，这本来是他重新坐上总统宝座后，最风光、也最重 要的一次出访，并且按道理，这种级别的见面，特朗普手里得有点强有力的筹码，才有底气和中方谈 判，可就在这个节骨眼上，他的后院起火了。 当地时间2月20日，共和党占主导权的美国最高法院，九位大法官里有六位罕见地达成了一致，直接裁 定特朗普之前搞的关税政策违法、越权，把他这张最管用的王牌给彻底废了。 之前特朗普想给谁加税就给谁加，尤其是针对咱们中国，最高的时候关税税率快加到200%，其中一大 半都是靠"对等贸易""芬太尼管控"这些名头硬加上去的，说白了就是想靠关税拿捏其他国家，占尽便 宜。 最高法院的大法官们说得很明白，特朗普用的那部《国际紧急经济权力法》，本来是用来应对海外政 变、恐怖主义这些紧急情况，冻结外国资产、限制交易的，通篇都没提"关税"俩字，他把这部法律当成 加征全球关税的"万能钥匙"，就是越权，就是违法。 更有意思的是，这次投赞成票的六位大法官里，还有两位是特朗普自己提名的，等于说他自己提拔的 人，也没站在他这边，可见这次裁决有多彻底。 裁决一出来，特朗普团队彻底慌了，赶紧翻箱倒柜找补救办法，最后翻出了1974 ...

美国最高法院正式推翻IEEPA关税，以6:3裁决特朗普IEEPA关税非法，根据美国耶鲁预算实验室测算， 判决后美国有效税率从此前的16%降至9%。但特朗普迅速表示反击，于裁决当天宣布通过122条款对全 球加征10%关税，随即将对"多国"税率上调至15%，并启动多项301调查。相应的美国平均税率重新抬 升至13.7%，但仍低于之前的16%。关税事件扰动或放大黄金、美债等价格波动。 截至本周一(2月23日)，伦敦现货黄金报收5237.84美元/盎司，自2月6日以来累计上涨357.81美元/盎司， 涨幅5.46%。国内春节期间伦敦现货黄金价格先跌后涨，重回5200关口，金价最高上行至5237.84美元/ 盎司，最低触及4841.37美元/盎司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：美国四季度GDP年化季环比初值1.4%、低于预期；2025年12月核心 PCE同比回升至3%、高于预期和前值，美国经济边际有所放缓，但整体相对平稳，存在通胀压力。美 国最高法院正式推翻IEEPA关税，但特朗普迅速表示反击，关税扰动或放大黄金波动。1月FOMC会议 纪要体现分歧，春节期间多位联储委员表态支持暂缓降息，目前市场对2026年的降息预期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in spot gold prices, which reached $5200 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and the subsequent impact on precious metals and oil prices [1] - The article notes that the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have not reached a resolution, leading to a deterioration in the situation and a continuous increase in the price of London gold [1] - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, supported by factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the potential for continued upward momentum in precious metals, industrial metals, and crude oil, driven by the pricing logic in the commodity market [1] - It suggests that the trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its appeal as a reserve asset [1] - The combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased overseas uncertainties, and the global trend of de-dollarization continues to support gold prices [1]