在此背景下，各国央行持续增持黄金。10月7日，我国央行公布最新的官方储备资产情况显示，9月末， 央行持有黄金7406万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024年11月以来，央行连续第11个月增持黄 金。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受央广网记者采访时表示，近期央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国 新政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意 味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的需求上 升。 世界黄金协会数据显示，过去四周黄金ETF净流入资金激增至136亿美元，这意味着2025年至今净流入 规模已突破600亿美元，创下历年最高纪录。这些ETF持有的黄金总量已超过3800吨，逼近新冠疫情引 发风险资产抛售期间达到的峰值。 根据最新的研究报告，高盛已将2026年12月金价预估上调至4900美元/盎司，先前预估为4300美元。预 计2025年和2026年各国央行的黄金净购买量将分别平均为80吨和70吨，因为新兴市场央行可能会继续通 过增持黄金来实现外汇储备的结构性多元化。 高盛分析师表示，随着市场预期美联储将在2026年中期前 ...

在黄金价格屡创新高之际，纽约联储代表全球各国央行持有的美国国债规模，已降至逾十年最低水平，这再次引发外界对外国投资者持有美国主权 债务及其他美元计价资产意愿的质疑。 "滞后数据"和"实时数据"打架 最新TIC数据显示，7月外国央行净买入171亿美元美国国债。摩根大通分析师指出，这使得今年前七个月的净买入规模达到380亿美元，较2024年同 期增加约40亿美元。 这一现象或许有些出人意料。包括美国财政部国际资本流动报告（TIC）与国际货币基金组织（IMF）"官方外汇储备构成"（Cofer）报告在内的近 期数据显示，海外市场对美国国债及美元资产的需求仍保持良好态势。 这两组数据是衡量美国资本流动与全球外汇储备的"黄金标准"，但发布存在较长滞后性——最新的TIC数据仅覆盖至今年7月，而最新的Cofer数据则 截至第二季度。 纽约联储的数据虽不够全面（各国央行可通过其他渠道持有美国国债），但发布频率为每周一次，在跨境央行资本流动领域，这几乎相当于"实时 数据"。 而目前，这一托管规模正快速下滑。 最新数据显示，纽约联储代表外国央行持有的美国国债价值为2.78万亿美元，创下2012年8月以来的最低值，仅两个月内就减少了 ...

国信证券近日发布近期黄金大涨快评：2025年以来，国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔 的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，一路突破多个整数关口，业 已逼近4000美元/盎司。其中，9月份的上涨尤为引人注目，美元计价下单月涨幅达11.6%。 当前支撑黄金持续上涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨，至北京时间10月7日晚间，美元计价伦敦现货黄金逼近4000 美元/盎司。 黄金上涨的长期逻辑：货币体系重构的长线叙事仍然有效 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产，其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格 局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上涨的长期逻辑主要集中在 全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性，当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时，黄金 往往成为市场的"压舱石"。当前，这一逻辑正得到充分验证，主要体现在两个方面： 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱， 越来越多的国家开始推进储备资产多元化，黄金成为重要的替代选择。在美国贸易保护主义 转向下， ...

①美国政府的停摆事件，削弱了投资者对美国财政稳健性的信心，美元指数短线承压，黄金则在全球主 要货币中表现突出。 国庆假期，黄金价格突破4000美元关口，再创历史新高，今日黄金ETF华夏大涨4.49%，年内涨幅扩大 至47%。黄金股ETF也迎来量价齐升，大涨6.79%，年内大涨99.4%，年内资金净流入额达16.56亿元。 黄金持续强势的背后，是市场对美元信用进行的重新审视： 费率成本最低的黄金、白银相关企业集合ETF：黄金股ETF(159562)，+6.79%，跟踪的指数SSH黄金股 票的成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同样包含白银有色、湖南白银等白银金属上市公司。 同标的最低费率的黄金ETF、可T+0交易：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，+4.49%，年内吸金33.58亿元。 配置均衡主流金属：有色金属ETF基金(516650)，+5.11%，权重股包括紫金矿业（铜、黄金）、洛阳钼 业（铜、钼、钴）、北方稀土（稀土）、华友钴业（钴、铜）和中国铝业（铝）等。 ②9月美联储正式宣布降息，货币政策转向直接引爆了黄金交易。市场普遍预计，10月将迎来年内的第 二次降息。 ③全球央行"去美元化"持续购买黄金成为上涨的另一催化因 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

降息周期有色商品展望-贵金属 20251008 摘要 当前黄金价格的上涨趋势如何判断？其主要驱动因素是什么？ 当前金价上涨并非由美联储降息预期驱动，美元指数和美债收益率未呈 现相应下跌趋势，通胀预期也保持稳定，排除了传统货币宽松解释。 避险逻辑不足以完全解释金价飙升，虽然地缘政治风险持续存在，但其 影响程度有限，金价上涨更可能是对 2025 年上半年涨势的延续。 特朗普政策的不确定性增加了市场避险需求，投资者将资金配置到黄金， 推高金价。其政府试图通过提升包括黄金在内的战略资源价值来改善财 政状况。 债务货币化是金价上涨的重要因素，各国通过发行债务刺激财政，引发 对全球信用货币体系的担忧，促使投资者转向黄金避险。 黄金价格突破长期横盘整理后上涨，多头逼空导致空头平仓，资金流入 是重要推动因素。美元并未大幅贬值，表明金价上涨并非完全由货币宽 松驱动。 滞胀理论未能完全解释当前黄金市场表现，美股持续上涨，美债收益率 未显著上升。但大宗商品价格上涨和 AI 成本增加可能引发未来通胀风险。 ETF 资金显著推动了黄金价格上涨，而非央行购金直接驱动。去美元化 趋势有所减缓，美国科技企业业绩超预期支撑美元。 Q&A 黄金 ...

2025/10/7 21:59 Goldman Trader: The AI "Will It, Won't It" Debate Won't Be Decided For Many Quarters | ZeroHedge Goldman Trader: The AI "Will It, Won't It" Debate Won't Be Decided For Many Quarters ⾼盛交易员：⼈⼯智能"成与不成"的争论将在多个 季度内⽆法定论 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, OCT07,2025-12:15 PM By Bobby Molavi, Goldman managing director and macr ...

后续应聚焦在美国政府停摆解决情况。如果美国政府停摆问题能够得到妥善解决，市场的避险情绪可能 会有所缓解，这可能会对金价产生一定的短线压力。但如果停摆持续时间延长，或者后续再次出现类似 情况，避险情绪将继续支撑金价上涨。另外，俄乌冲突、中东、南美局势等地缘政治热点地区的变化也 将持续影响黄金价格。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 光大： 国庆期间，纽约期金首次触及4000美元/盎司整数关口，现货同步创历史新高至3980美元/盎司美元附 近，金银比最低跌至81附近。外盘黄金异常强势，主要基于美国政府停摆引发的避险需求持续升温。美 国政府停摆影响是多方面的。一是重要经济数据发布中断。非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无 法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预 期，美联储10月降息概率超90%。二是，美元信用削弱。政府停摆意味着美 ...

风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济恢复超预期 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周二早盘高开，全日窄幅波动。主力 11 合约收于 8640 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 30 元/吨，收 | | | | | | | 盘价比 0.35%，持仓减少 32579 手至 17.44 万手，品种沉淀资金增加 3.38 亿元，远月 01 减仓 2092 手。 | | | | | | | 今日仓单量增加 781 手至 50983 手。 | | | | | | 工 | 基本面：供给方面，SMM 数据显示，9 月产量为 42 万吨，环比+9.09%。库存来看，行业总库存约为 | | | | 54.3 | | 业 | 万吨，广期所仓单为 50,983（+781）手。需求方面，多晶硅开工率较高支撑需求，SMM 预计 10 月份产量环 | | | | | | 硅 | 比+6.16%。有机硅产量小幅下滑，铝合金开工率维持小幅增长。 | | | | | | | | 交易策略：四季度关注进入枯水期后的库存累积节奏。同时，"反内卷"政策推高相 ...

上海豫园老字号金店里，王老伯盯着计算器上跳动的数字犹豫了半天。 店员告诉他，一个30克的金镯子现在要价超过3万元，而去年此时，同样的首饰还不 到2万4。 但最后王老伯还是掏了钱包，理由是"老伴喜欢，涨高没事"。 就在同一天，现货黄金价格突破了每盎司4000美元大关。 这家金店的负责人发现一个有趣现象，当首饰金价突破1000元人民币每克后，客户买金出现了"两个极端"几克的小首饰和30克以上的大件，销量最好。 算 上投资金条，这家店在国庆假期前六天的销售总额同比增长了超过30%。 黄金这东西真是让人看不懂。 桥水基金创始人达利奥周二刚说黄金"无疑"比美元更安全，而对冲基金Citadel创始人肯·格里芬也认为金价上涨反映了市场对 美元的深层焦虑。 但问题是，黄金本身不产生利息，过去这是它的一大弊端。 交易员们目前普遍预期美联储本月将降息25个基点。 降息预期通常会提振黄金等非生息资产的吸引力，因为持有黄金的机会成本会随之下降。 随着美元开 始降息，黄金作为无息资产的"机会成本"大幅降低。 法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，他上任不足30天。 他的辞职阻碍了法国控制欧元区最大规模财政赤字的努力。 美国政府停摆已经 ...