Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1% and falling below 50,000 points, primarily affecting tourism and retail stocks [1][3] - Notable declines included Shiseido's stock, which fell 11%, and Pacific International Holdings, which saw an 8.9% drop, marking their largest single-day declines since April 2024 [1][3] - Major retail and tourism-related companies, such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing, also faced substantial stock price drops, with declines exceeding 5% [3] Group 2 - The downturn in the stock market is attributed to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with Chinese authorities issuing travel warnings to their citizens regarding travel to Japan [5][11] - Chinese tourists are crucial for Japan's tourism sector, accounting for nearly 20% of international visitors in 2024, with their spending representing 27% of total inbound consumption, amounting to approximately 2.1 trillion yen [7] - A significant reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36% for Japan, equating to an economic loss of about 2.2 trillion yen [7] Group 3 - Japan's economy is facing multiple challenges, including a 1.8% decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, largely due to decreased exports and a sharp drop in private residential investment [9] - Analysts suggest that the recent travel warnings from China threaten Japan's retail sales growth, particularly for companies like Shiseido and Uniqlo, which rely heavily on Chinese consumers [11] - The Japanese government has set an ambitious target to increase annual inbound tourist numbers to 60 million by 2030, but this goal is now uncertain due to escalating political tensions with China [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand shows a bearish trend. However, short - term geopolitical factors drive up, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026; OPEC's October production shows a small increase, while Non - OPEC DoC's production decreases; IEA also shows a decline in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC production in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA lowers the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate; OPEC keeps the forecast unchanged; IEA slightly raises the forecast. Overall, it is neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increases to the highest level since June 6, 2025, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreases. Different types of refined oil inventories show different changes. It is bearish [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may intensify market supply - surplus concerns. It also agrees to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. It is bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy hubs lead to the suspension of oil exports from Novorossiysk Port, causing about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply interruption. The U.S. new sanctions on Russia bring uncertainty. It is bullish [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: The U.S. adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is high. It is neutral [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and the long - term price center will decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions against Russia are further upgraded, and international oil prices fluctuate widely. This week, oil prices first fell and then rose. Geopolitical events are the direct catalyst for the rebound. As of November 14, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures show different price changes [8] - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, and internal - external spreads strengthen [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [22] - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads decline, and jet fuel cracking spreads also decline [25][35] PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - Global crude oil production in October 2025 shows different trends according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA data, with an overall decline [57] - U.S. weekly crude oil production increases to 13.862 million barrels per day as of the week of November 7, and the number of active drilling rigs also increases slightly [80] - **Inventory** - U.S. commercial inventory increases by 6.413 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreases by 346,000 barrels [81] - Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, and Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [90] - **Demand** - In the U.S., gasoline implied demand increases, and refinery operating rate rises [100] - In China, independent refinery capacity utilization shows different trends, with some regions affected by equipment failures and some rising [117] - **Refinery Profit**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries rebounds, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads also rebound [118] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreases [134]

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 供应宽松压制油价，地缘与避险风险成关键 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周原油呈N型波动且重心下移，当前在63-65美元震荡。上周五因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港遭袭（中断220万桶/ 日出口）油价大涨，但港口已恢复作业，需警惕盘面回落及63美元支撑位。汽柴油支撑弱化或继续回落，炼 厂开工提升的支撑有限，叠加全球原油供应高位，市场宽松格局压制油价。地缘风险短期解除，宏观面中性 但需关注资金避险情绪。中短期原油维持60-65美元低位震荡，重点留意地缘与避险风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油ETF隐含波动率(右轴) WTI原油主 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 数据确实背景之下，美联储联储鹰派官员集体横跳表态激进，同时出现流动性危机。 | | | 长线持有 | 黄金价格回落，短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，全是情绪博弈，白银继续下跌。长期来看 | | | 长线持有 | 白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动 | | ★ | | 性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，亚太战争风险剧增，市场情绪谨慎，铜承压 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 回落，建议多空均降低仓位，警惕黑天鹅风险，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★ | | 爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | ★ | 反弹承压 | 减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Overview - As of the week ending November 14, 2025, international oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil price at $64.39 per barrel (up $0.76 or +1.19%) and WTI at $59.39 per barrel (down $0.45 or -0.75%) [2][3] - Factors contributing to the price movements included an increase in China's crude oil imports, a decline in the US dollar exchange rate, and the US government's efforts to end the shutdown, which boosted market risk appetite [2][3] - OPEC's monthly report indicated a forecast adjustment to oversupply, which sent bearish signals to the market, leading to a decline in oil prices later in the week [2][3] Group 2: US Oil Supply and Demand - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, US crude oil production reached 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US rose to 417, with an increase of 3 rigs, while the fracturing fleet also saw a rise to 175 units, up by 2 [3] - US refinery crude processing averaged 15.973 million barrels per day, an increase of 717,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40%, up by 3.4 percentage points [3] Group 3: US Oil Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 838 million barrels, an increase of 7.211 million barrels (+0.87%) [3] - Strategic oil reserves were at 410 million barrels, up by 798,000 barrels (+0.19%), while commercial crude oil inventories increased to 428 million barrels, up by 6.413 million barrels (+1.52%) [3] - Cushing, Oklahoma, crude oil inventories decreased to 22.519 million barrels, down by 346,000 barrels (-1.51%) [3] Group 4: Refined Product Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, US gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels (-0.46%), while diesel inventories saw a slight increase of 235,000 barrels (+1.61%) [4] - Jet fuel inventories increased by 111,900 barrels (+2.68%), while overall diesel inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels (-0.57%) [4] Group 5: Biofuel Prices - As of November 14, 2025, the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel was $1,170 per ton, down by $20 from the previous week, while hydrocarbon-based biodiesel remained stable at $1,910 per ton [4] - In China, the FOB price for bio-jet fuel was $2,550 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while European bio-jet fuel prices increased by $60 to $2,910 per ton [4] Group 6: Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]

Core Insights - The sixth Transatlantic Energy Cooperation Partners Conference was held in Athens, Greece, focusing on energy security, affordability, and reliability in Europe, with significant participation from U.S. officials and international oil and gas executives [2][3] - The U.S. aims to replace Russian natural gas in Western Europe, with a commitment to supply LNG and other energy products worth $750 billion over three years, significantly increasing Europe's dependency on U.S. energy [3][5] - Europe is experiencing a shift in energy supply dynamics, with the U.S. becoming the largest LNG and oil supplier, accounting for approximately 55% of EU imports, while the EU aims to reduce its natural gas consumption by 7% by 2030 [3][4] Energy Supply Dynamics - The EU has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian energy, with imports from Russia dropping from 45% for gas and 27% for oil in 2022 to approximately 13% and 3% by 2025, respectively [2] - The EU's LNG imports have surged, with the U.S. replacing Russia as the primary supplier, raising concerns about the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of this shift [3][4] - A long-term LNG supply agreement was signed between Greece and the U.S., committing to import 700 million cubic meters of U.S. LNG annually starting in 2030 for 20 years, which has sparked debates about the environmental impact and the EU's green transition [5][6] Environmental and Geopolitical Concerns - The EU's increased dependency on U.S. LNG raises questions about the impact on its climate goals, as the extraction and transportation of shale gas have significant carbon footprints [5][6] - There are fears that the EU's commitment to purchasing U.S. energy could weaken its negotiating position and expose it to political leverage from the U.S., potentially compromising its climate policies [6] - The evolving energy relationship reflects broader tensions in U.S.-EU relations, with the EU needing to navigate its energy security while maintaining autonomy and addressing environmental concerns [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, but geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so Fed rate - cut expectations persist), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (more Fed policymakers are cautious about a December rate cut, but the end of the US government shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for a rate cut next month), and commodity attributes (CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. Shanghai gold closed down 0.29%, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.04% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $4174.50 per ounce, down $26.90 (-0.64%) from the previous day and up $189.70 (4.76%) from last week; London gold is $4195.65 per ounce, up $58.90 (1.42%) from the previous day and up $209.15 (5.25%) from last week; Shanghai gold主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 953.20 yuan per gram, down 8.02 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and up 31.94 yuan (3.47%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 947.98 yuan per gram, down 10.69 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous day and up 30.34 yuan (3.31%) from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai gold主力 (SHFE) positions are 113,597 lots (1 kg per lot), down 10,642 lots (-8.57%) from the previous day and down 23,063 lots (-16.88%) from last week; Gold TD (SGE) positions are 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 5,368 lots (-2.25%) from the previous day and down 21,288 lots (-8.37%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory is 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and up 1.32% from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 66,417.00, an increase of 568.00 (19.11%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 13,012.00, a decrease of 44.00 (3.74%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $52.23 per ounce, down $1.00 (-1.88%) from the previous day and up $4.39 (9.17%) from last week; London silver is $53.87 per ounce, up $2.34 (4.53%) from the previous day and up $5.19 (10.65%) from last week; Shanghai silver主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 12,375.00 yuan per kg, down 213.00 yuan (-1.69%) from the previous day and up 891.00 yuan (7.76%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 12,326.00 yuan per kg, down 237.00 yuan (-1.89%) from the previous day and up 846.00 yuan (7.37%) from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai silver主力 (SHFE) positions are 4,708,155 lots (1 kg per lot), down 92,040 lots (-1.92%) from the previous day and up 1,025,400 lots (27.84%) from last week; Silver TD (SGE) positions are 4,040,198 lots (1 kg per lot), down 36,092 lots (-0.89%) from the previous day and down 253,820 lots (-5.91%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 26,255 tons, an increase of 1,673 tons (6.81%); Comex silver inventory is 14,813 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 118 tons (-0.79%) from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory is 577 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-7.41%); The total explicit inventory is 42,467 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-0.11%) from the previous day and a decrease of 164 tons (-0.39%) from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 112,336.00, an increase of 8,357.00 (14.72%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 39,418.00, an increase of 2,773.00 (5.17%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 from the previous value; Fed total assets are $6,631.098 billion, down $608 million (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, an increase of 0.01; 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, an increase of 0.03 (1.27%); US dollar index is 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down 0.72 (-0.72%) from last week; US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, down 0.01 (-2.56%) from the previous day and up 0.05 (13.16%) from last week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.15, an increase of 0.03 (-16.67%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.06 (-28.57%) from last week; US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.53, unchanged; US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 2.84, an increase of 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.02 (0.87%) from last week; CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged [10]. - **Inflation, Economy, and Other Aspects**: In the US, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have corresponding data changes, such as GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP (annualized month - on - month) is 3.80, an increase of 4.40; unemployment rate is 4.30%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, a decrease of 0.57 million; etc [10]. - **Other Attributes**: Geopolitical risk index is 103.52, an increase of 4.85 (4.91%); VIX index is 20.00, an increase of 2.49 (14.22%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.50 (2.56%) from last week; CRB commodity index is 302.35, down 0.31 (-0.10%) from the previous day and up 1.44 (0.48%) from last week; offshore RMB is 7.1105, a decrease of 0.0153 (-0.21%) [11].

Group 1 - The weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical tensions have increased the attractiveness of gold, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have limited expectations for a rate cut in December, restricting the upward movement of gold prices [1][2] - Consumers are taking advantage of price discrepancies in the gold market, utilizing delivery services in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area to purchase gold bars at prices lower than the real-time market rate, saving significant amounts [1] - A joint statement from India and Canada emphasizes their commitment to securing critical minerals and clean energy supply chains, indicating a new phase in bilateral relations [1] Group 2 - Despite geopolitical risks and a weak dollar providing some support to the market, several Federal Reserve decision-makers have expressed caution, highlighting that inflation concerns remain and the labor market is stabilizing, suggesting no urgency for further rate cuts [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from 64% to 51% according to futures data [2] Group 3 - As of November 14, 2023, the spot gold price is reported at $4171.19 per ounce, with a marginal increase of 0.01% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since late October, affected by supply - side disturbances and seasonal weakness in demand, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line. In a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that fuel oil will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. - In the context of increasing macro - risks, the fuel oil futures market is under short - term pressure, and its subsequent trend depends more on the structural changes on the supply side rather than the strong recovery of demand [3]. - Although the short - term macro - outlook is weak and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the fuel oil futures price, the restricted supply pattern of Russian fuel oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums will still exist. Affected by the recent sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it is expected that fuel oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since late October, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line [2]. Macro - factors - Recent "hawkish" signals from Fed officials mean that the US will maintain a high - interest - rate environment for a longer time, which boosts the US dollar index. The government "shutdown" has dragged down the economy, and the weakening macro - expectations will have multiple impacts on the fuel oil futures market [2]. - High - interest - rate environment suppresses global economic growth expectations and the demand for dollar - denominated commodities, increasing the volatility and risk of trading and indirectly suppressing the consumption demand for marine fuel oil [2]. Supply - side Factors - Since August 2025, Russian energy facilities have been frequently attacked, and its refining capacity has declined by about 20% as of the end of October. In November, the US and the EU further tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies, reducing its export capacity [3]. - In the Middle East, some Saudi refineries are in the maintenance cycle, and some Kuwaiti refineries have shut down part of their production capacity due to device fires. In Latin America, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in countries such as Mexico shows a seasonal decline, and new secondary processing devices in some refineries will also restrict supply growth [3]. Demand - side Factors - As the crude oil quota of domestic refineries is running out in the fourth quarter, some refineries tend to purchase high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock for delayed coking units, providing new demand support [4]. - The number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers globally has exceeded 4500 in 2025. Due to the economic advantages of using high - sulfur fuel oil after installation, the demand from this part of the fleet remains stable [4].