Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on potential hawkish signals from policymakers [1] Group 1: Market Trends - LME copper prices experienced a decline of 1.7% [1] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by over 30% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday [1] - Any indications that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in 2026 could negatively impact risk assets, including commodities [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...

隔夜收高后，亚盘油价小幅下跌，但仍有望实现周涨幅。本周，地缘政治问题支撑了价格，市场关注俄 乌冲突和美委紧张局势带来的供应风险。对美联储下周降息的希望增加了利好因素，因为降息可以提振 经济活动和能源需求，并软化美元，从而使美元计价的 大宗商品变得更便宜。大华 银行分析师表示， 强劲的美国就业数据对美联储降息的预期影响甚微。华侨银行策略师表示："联邦基金 期货继续表明， 12月FOMC会议降息25个基点已经被完全定价。" ...

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with the national average price for cement in the first three quarters of 2025 at 320 RMB/ton, a decrease of 48 RMB/ton from the beginning of the year, primarily due to a substantial decline in real estate investment and a slowdown in infrastructure investment [1][3][5]. Key Insights - **Regional Performance**: The Northeast cement market showed relative stability with a smaller decline compared to the national average, while regions such as Northwest, East China, Central China, Southwest, and North China experienced significant decreases [1][4]. - **Profit Growth**: Despite challenges, nearly all cement companies reported year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a notable improvement in industry profitability and a positive outlook for future development [1][6]. - **Supply Adjustments**: Increased staggered production stoppages were noted, with Guangdong experiencing an increase of 15 days and certain areas in Xinjiang halting production for up to 228 days, reducing reliance on imported cement [1][7]. - **Demand Challenges**: As of October 2025, real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, leading to a slowdown in domestic cement demand and exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [1][8]. Additional Important Points - **Export Growth**: To mitigate excess domestic capacity, companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with cement exports rising by 1.2924 million tons year-on-year, totaling 5.0378 million tons by October 2025 [1][9]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost of cement production is primarily driven by coal (35% of costs) and electricity (27% of costs). Although coal prices have decreased recently, the overall production costs remain high due to previous price levels [3]. - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated demand for cement is expected to increase by 20%-30% in December 2025 due to a surge in infrastructure project completions. However, the average price is projected to fluctuate between 322-326 RMB/ton due to low clinker capacity utilization throughout the year [1][10]. - **Seasonal Variations**: The fourth quarter is expected to show regional differences, with the North entering a seasonal slowdown and the South experiencing increased demand due to project deadlines, leading to an overall decline in national production [2][10].

12月3日，沪锡期货主力2601合约日盘高开高走，盘中最高触及31.41万元/吨，涨幅达2.72%，创下2022 年5月以来新高；收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。自今年6月启动上涨行情以来，沪锡主力合约累计 涨幅已攀升至23.3%。 此轮锡价上行主要受矿端供应收缩与宏观预期改善双重驱动。供应端方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度显著 慢于市场预期，当地锡精矿出口量持续处于低位，加剧了市场对原料短缺的担忧；宏观层面，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%（据CME FedWatch工具），宽松政策预期升温对大宗商品整体形 成提振。此外，新兴领域需求的快速增长为锡价提供了坚实支撑。当前锡消费结构中，半导体与消费电 子仍是锡焊料的核心应用场景——作为锡消费占比超65%的主力领域，半导体行业的景气度回升直接拉 动了锡焊料需求。据半导体行业协会（SIA）最新数据，2024年全球半导体销售额达6276亿美元，较 2023年的5268亿美元大幅增长19.1%；机构预测，2025年半导体封装用锡焊料需求增速将进一步攀升至 5%-7%，成为锡价中长期的重要支撑因素。 现货市场同步走强，锡均价站稳30万元/吨关口，W ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply - demand imbalance persists with high inventory and oversupply. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the downside is limited as it has reached a 5 - year low [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to low demand, high inventory, and a declining cost center, the price is also expected to stay in a low - level range. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low with limited downside [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,050 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 88,522 (- 57,307) lots, and the open interest was 121,924 (- 967) lots. The recent rebound is a minor repair after previous over - decline, driven by macro - level easing expectations such as the Fed's rate - cut anticipation and improved Sino - US relations. However, the supply - demand imbalance remains, and there is obvious support near the cost line [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is quiet with stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - plant profits, leading to cautious raw - material procurement and some plants considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mostly in the range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average due to consecutive price rebounds, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,351 (- 371) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,074 (- 1,290) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,460 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 95,108 (- 68,491) lots, and the open interest was 102,135 (- 4,171) lots. It showed a low - level oscillating upward trend, similar to Shanghai nickel, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term due to the coexistence of macro support and fundamental pressure [2]. - **Spot**: Affected by the "buy on rising" psychology, stainless - steel spot trading has improved, and prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets have increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is between 355 - 555 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [4].

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 等待港库拐点， 做缩EB-BZ价差 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/29 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪回暖，大宗商品涨跌各现。 估值：苯乙烯周度跌幅（成本＞现货＞期货），基差走弱，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格下跌-2.29%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格下跌-2.22%，纯苯基差下跌1元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率68.95%，环比下降-0.43%，同比去年上涨6.73%，较5年同期下降-4.37%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复，开 工率随之上升。 进出口：9月国内纯苯进口量为496.77万吨，环比上涨14.18%，同比去年上涨14.50%，主要为中东地区货源。9月EB进口量33.12 万吨，环比上涨 ...

Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2026 Strategy Conference by CITIC Futures was successfully held on November 26, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Sailing Forward" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and eight sub-forums, discussing macroeconomic trends, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, and overseas markets [1] - The event gathered investors from various sectors, promoting an exchange of ideas and insights [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Vice President of the China Macroeconomic Society, Zhu Baoliang, projected a 5% economic growth for China in 2025, supported by growth policies and export activities [2] - Challenges such as insufficient domestic demand, a sluggish real estate market, and increasing local government debt were highlighted, indicating potential overcapacity in the economy [2] - Recommendations for 2026 include maintaining a stable economic growth target of around 5%, implementing proactive fiscal policies, and enhancing market confidence [2] Group 3: Global Economic Insights - CITIC Securities' Chief Macro Analyst, Cui Rong, noted that 2025's tariff disruptions would lead to a clearer global economic environment in 2026, with reduced uncertainties in geopolitics and monetary policies [3] - The forecast includes a cautious outlook on global financial market liquidity and lower returns on risk assets compared to 2025, despite a continued boom in AI technology [3] - Concerns regarding the fragility of AI financing cycles and potential economic risks related to the U.S. midterm elections were also mentioned [3] Group 4: Market and Asset Allocation - CITIC Futures' Deputy Director, Zeng Ning, expressed an optimistic macro outlook for 2026, driven by a sustained easing of global liquidity and fiscal expansions in the U.S. and Europe [4] - The asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced approach, with an emphasis on precious metals and commodities, while adjusting positions based on supply and demand dynamics [4] - Expectations for oil prices indicate a potential downward pressure on price levels, suggesting a cautious approach to oil investments [4]