Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of the lithium carbonate 2601 contract on October 31 was due to short - term profit - taking of funds and cautious market sentiment. However, the fundamental support remained unchanged. The current decline was a normal correction in the upward trend, and the short - term high - level volatile game pattern remained [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it was expected that the market would continue to fluctuate at a high level next week [7]. - Gold showed signs of stabilizing after more than a week of adjustment, and it was advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the molten iron might decline periodically, and it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15]. - For glass, the inventory had decreased this week, and the future trend mainly depended on policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, it was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [19]. - For eggs, although the supply was sufficient, considering the expected losses in egg - chicken farming, there were short - term long - buying opportunities [22]. - For pulp, it was expected to continue to operate weakly and be treated as oscillating at a low level [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus: Lithium Carbonate - On October 31, the lithium carbonate 2601 contract fell 3.42% to 82,363 yuan/ton. The decline was driven by short - term profit - taking of funds and cautious market sentiment. When the previous price approached the resistance level of 85,000 yuan/ton, some long - positions took profits, intensifying the market volatility [3]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side showed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in October increased by 49.6% year - on - year, and the power battery loading volume also increased significantly. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in November showed the characteristic of "not being off - season in the off - season". On the supply side, although the lithium salt production increased slightly month - on - month, the production of lithium from externally purchased raw materials was generally at a loss, and lithium mica plants had a strong sentiment of holding prices, forming a cost support around 70,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The current inventory was at a historical high but continued to decline, and the futures still had a premium over the spot. The short - term decline space was limited [4]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures closed with a medium - sized阴线. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level next week. Relevant news included positive Sino - US relations and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in October [7]. - **Gold**: After more than a week of adjustment, gold showed signs of stabilizing, and it was advisable to buy on dips [12]. - **Iron Ore**: After the holiday, the terminal situation did not improve substantially, and the molten iron might decline periodically. Technically, it fell back near the previous high and was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias. In the long - term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply was expected to be loose [15][16]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume changed little, and the inventory decreased this week. The future trend mainly depended on policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, the rebound ended, and it was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias after two consecutive days of negative closes [19]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens continued to increase, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, the future egg - chicken farming was expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken, so there were short - term long - buying opportunities [22]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price in Shandong remained stable. The current supply - demand fundamentals did not change significantly, the port de - stocking was lower than expected, and the purchasing side was cautious. It was expected to continue to operate weakly and be treated as oscillating at a low level [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.49%, and the glass futures dropped by 0.92%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the market's interest - rate cut expectation, the price first rose and then weakened due to the expectation of increased production. The glass market had a similar trend to the soda ash market, but due to the sluggish real - estate sentiment, the decline of glass was more significant than that of soda ash. It is expected that next week, the soda ash price will mainly show a volatile and weakening trend, and the glass price will also face challenges due to supply and demand factors [6]. - For soda ash, the current operation of soda ash plants is relatively stable with no large - scale maintenance plans, and the overall production remains at a relatively high level. New production capacities such as those of Yuangxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu Chemical are expected to be put into operation in December, which will further exacerbate the future oversupply situation. The demand from the float glass industry is mainly for daily production needs, and the short - term demand pull from photovoltaic glass is limited. For glass, the supply has shown an upward trend due to the restart of some cold - repaired production lines, but the "coal - to - gas" policy in the Shahe area and the policy of restricting new production capacity may relieve the marginal supply pressure. The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and although the automobile industry provides some support, it cannot offset the negative impact of the real - estate demand decline [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1200 - 1260, with stop - loss set at 1180 - 1300. For the FG2601 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1130, with stop - loss set at 1060 - 1150 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.49% and glass futures fell 0.92% this week. Soda ash first rose under the interest - rate cut expectation and then weakened due to production increase expectation. Glass followed a similar trend but declined more due to real - estate sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply is expected to increase with new capacities coming online in December, and demand is relatively stable with limited short - term pull from photovoltaic glass. Glass supply may face short - term contraction due to policies, and demand from real - estate is weak while the automobile industry provides some support [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300, and operate FG2601 in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Soda ash spot prices remained flat, and the basis was stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton. Glass spot prices weakened, and the basis also weakened but is expected to stabilize in the future. As of October 30, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1048 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 43 yuan/ton [14][19][22]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 30, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 144 yuan/ton [24][26] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Operation**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week. As of October 30, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.78% (up 3.3% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 75.76 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week). The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production was stable. The production capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased [28][42][49]. - **Profit and Cost**: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, with negative profits affecting future production. Glass enterprise profits also decreased due to weakening spot prices and increased costs. As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - tonnage joint - soda process was - 180 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 126 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels all decreased [35][40]. - **Inventory and Demand**: Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased slightly due to weak downstream demand and the decline in photovoltaic glass production. Glass enterprise inventories also decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week. The downstream deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days [53][57][61]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of plastics is expected to increase. Although the device maintenance remains at a medium level, some major overhaul devices are gradually resuming, which brings pressure to the supply side. The performance of the traditional peak demand season is lower than expected. Although the operating rates of most downstream industries remain at a high level for the year, the subsequent orders of some factories have slowed down. Downstream enterprises are highly cautious, with low willingness to purchase raw materials, and mainly make low - price just - in - time purchases. Overall, the supply - demand trend is loose [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; PE weekly output is 648,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE capacity utilization and weekly output in China from 2021 to 2025, and the production ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from October 8, 2024, to October 8, 2025 [12][15]. Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries has seasonally increased, with a weighted operating rate of 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85% [9]. - The report presents a chart of the historical data and trends of the operating rate of PE downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the sub - item operating rates of different downstream industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, etc., from July 14, 2023, to July 14, 2025 [20]. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%; social inventory is 545,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE enterprise inventory and social inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 [24]. Upstream and Cost - The report displays the historical data and trends of the weekly output of ethylene produced by different methods (such as MTO) in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the total weekly output of ethylene [29]. - It also shows the historical data and trends of the weighted operating rate and weighted output of ethylene downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price decreased by 0.21% week - on - week to 7,136 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.74% week - on - week to 6,999 yuan/ton [9]. - The report presents the profit charts of different production methods of LLDPE (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) from October 7, 2024, to October 7, 2025, and the oil - based profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from June 10 to June 10 of different months [37]. - It also shows the import profit charts of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from February 4, 2025, to August 4, 2025 [40]. Basis and Spread - The basis is 136, and the (1 - 5) spread is - 52 [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of the LLDPE basis in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the 1 - 5 polyethylene spread from September 8, 2025, to October 8, 2025 [45].

Overall Summary - Report title: "Soda Ash and Glass Market Weekly Report" [1] - Report date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - This week, soda ash futures rose 1.65%, while glass futures fell 0.27%. Soda ash showed an upward trend due to production - cut expectations, and glass maintained bottom - level oscillations because of inventory increases and low real - estate sentiment [6]. - For soda ash, supply is expected to be affected by some enterprises' planned short - term shutdowns for maintenance next week. Demand from the glass industry remains at a low level, and with the "anti - involution" process in the photovoltaic glass industry, future demand for soda ash will weaken. Overall, supply exceeds demand, putting downward pressure on prices [6]. - For glass, the "coal - to - gas" project in the Shahe area and the policy of banning new glass production capacity may lead to short - term supply reduction. However, the real - estate industry, the largest downstream demand sector, is still in a slump, and glass demand remains weak [6]. - Trading strategies are suggested: for the SA2601 contract, trade in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300; for the FG2601 contract, operate in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 1.65%, and glass futures fell 0.27% this week. Soda ash had a slight upward trend, and glass was at the bottom [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply may decrease due to enterprise maintenance, demand from the glass industry is weak, and inventory is increasing. For glass, potential supply reduction factors exist, but demand from the real - estate industry is still low [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA2601 contract, trade in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300; FG2601 contract, operate in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: As of October 23, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1052 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [15][21]. - **Basis**: The soda ash basis strengthened, and the glass basis weakened and is expected to flatten in the future [13][17]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 23, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 127 yuan/ton [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of October 23, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 84.01%, down 2.06% week - on - week; the national weekly output was 74.06 tons, up 0.01% week - on - week. Output is expected to increase slightly next week [27][32]. - **Profitability**: By October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton joint - alkali method was - 175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 132 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The profit of glass enterprises decreased, mainly due to the weakening of spot prices [34][39]. - **Glass Production**: As of October 23, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 226 in operation, and 70 cold - repaired. The national float - glass output was 112.89 tons, with no change week - on - week, and is expected to remain low next week [41][46]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of October 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 67.82%, down 1.02% week - on - week; the daily melting volume was 88,680 tons/day, down 100 tons/day week - on - week, and is expected to remain stable next week [48][50]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week; the total glass inventory was 66.613 million heavy boxes, up 3.63% week - on - week. Inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week [52][56]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days, indicating a slight recovery but still low demand [58][60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report Core View - The overall view for both coking coal and coke is a sideways trading approach. Coking coal shows a slight upward trend in the short - term, while coke is slightly stronger in the intraday period, and both are expected to move in a range in the short and medium - term [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1300.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.17%. In the domestic market, the coking coal auction in Linfen, Shanxi yesterday mostly saw price increases, with a good atmosphere [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to rise; in the medium - term, it will be in a sideways trend. The overall view is a sideways trading approach. Although the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient at present, recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors have caused the coking coal futures main contract to maintain a range - bound operation [1][5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, also with a week - on - week flat. Some domestic coke enterprises initiated a second price increase last week, but due to the recent shrinkage of steel mill profits, the price increase has not been implemented yet, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue to be in a game state [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the intraday period, it is expected to be slightly stronger; in the medium - term, it will be in a sideways trend. The overall view is a sideways trading approach. Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side and an overall decline in inventory. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and there is no obvious positive news from the policy side, driving the coke main contract to maintain a range - bound operation [1][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of the apple AP2601 contract in the futures market may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term. This is supported by the scarcity of high - quality apple supply in the fundamental aspect and the strong bullish sentiment in the technical aspect [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 20, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8,865 points, a 2.26% increase from the previous day. The trading volume was 159,727 lots, and the open interest was 142,886 lots, an increase of 14,247 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The report presents the price data of multiple apple futures contracts (AP510 - AP605), including yesterday's settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, today's closing price, today's settlement price, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and trading amount [6]. - **Related Market**: Apple options traded 31,546 lots in total on the day, with a total open interest of 32,404 lots, an increase of 3,392 lots. There were 26 lots exercised on the day [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The spot price of apples on the day was 7,500 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,798 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of - 1,298 yuan/ton [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Currently, late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market for trading, with high - quality fruits commanding premium prices. Good - quality apples are seeing stable to slightly higher prices. Traders in western regions such as Gansu and northern Shaanxi are actively ordering high - quality fruits, and the warehousing work in some production areas has begun [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily K - line chart, the apple futures formed a medium - sized positive line on the day, with a relatively long real body and closing higher than the previous trading day's closing price, indicating that the bullish force was dominant and driving the price up [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook Fundamentally, the coloring of apples in the western production areas is 10 days behind schedule, the bag - removing in Shandong is postponed by half a month, and the red apples are on the market 15 days later than last year. Fruit farmers in the production areas report that the amount of high - quality fruits has decreased by half, and the proportion of high - quality fruits has declined. The warehousing volume in Gansu is lower than last year, the effective inventory in Shandong is lower than last year, and although the warehousing volume in Shaanxi is large, the proportion of high - quality fruits is not high. The scarcity of high - quality supply provides strong support for prices. Technically, the market is bullish, and the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. In the short term, the price of the AP2601 contract is likely to continue to be volatile and upward - trending [10][12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, mainly influenced by the cost side. The processing fee remains low, leading to frequent changes in PTA plant loads, and the spot basis is running weakly. The downstream weaving start - up rate is rising slowly [2]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments. Port inventories have been accumulating since October. Although the cost pressure of oil - based production has eased, coal and natural gas prices are squeezing the coal - based and gas - based production routes. The orders in the weaving market are differentiated, and the demand for winter warm - keeping fabrics is gradually picking up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 85 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, unchanged from the previous day. There have been many maintenance and changes in devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days this week are 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous week [2]. - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long and short main forces [2]. MEG - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 72 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward, and coal prices are falling. The total inventory of MEG ports in East China this week is 49.3 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Trends**: The long main force has increased positions [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance on October 20th, with some rising and others falling. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market is affected by a combination of macro - economic, supply - demand, and geopolitical factors [5]. - For most commodities, market uncertainties such as upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, major domestic conferences, and geopolitical situations will impact their prices, and in some cases, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [10][13][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper is affected by factors such as overseas interest rate cuts, supply disruptions at mines, and high domestic prices being resisted. It is expected to have a strong performance in the short - term, with the focus on the impact of major domestic conferences on market sentiment [8][10]. - **Silver**: The main contract of Shanghai silver fell nearly 4% on October 20th [5]. - **Gold**: The main contract of Shanghai gold (2512) had a capital outflow of 5.713 billion yuan as of October 20, 15:23 [6]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively high, the downstream recovery is limited, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [19]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices rose, with domestic mine production increasing and demand from coking enterprises weakening. The market is affected by factors such as steel mill profits and coke price increases [20][21]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising. The supply has growth potential, and downstream demand is strong during the peak season [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is increasing, demand is weakening, and geopolitical risks are decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium to long - term, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a high level, demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe due to potential oil price fluctuations [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, supply is increasing, and demand during the peak season is less than expected. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate is at a medium level, downstream demand during the peak season is less than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Urea**: The cost is rising, demand is weakening as autumn fertilizers end, and the market is expected to stabilize after a decline [22]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The main contract of live pigs rose nearly 3% on October 20th [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract of apples rose more than 2% on October 20th [5]. - **Soybeans**: The main contract of soybeans (No. 1) rose more than 1% on October 20th [5]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose on October 20th [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell on October 20th [6].