2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 工业硅期货早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为12.15GW,环比增加1.67%,库存为23.3万吨，环比增加9.38%, 目前硅片生产为亏损状态，12月排产为45.7GW,较上月产量54.37GW，环比减少15.94%；11 月电池片产量为55.61GW,环比减少6.17%,上周电池片外销厂库存为9.44GW,环比增加 4.07%，目前生产为亏损状态，12月排产量为48.72GW,环比减少12.38%；11月组件产量为 46.9GW,环比减少2.49%,12月预计组件产量为39.99GW,环比减少14.73%,国内月度库存为 24.76GW,环比减少51.73%,欧洲月度库存为33.1GW,环比减少6.49%,目前组件生产 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 16, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1067.5, up 1.33%. After continuous decline, coking coal saw a technical rebound. In the short - term, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. [2] - On December 16, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1514.5, up 1.34%. The spot price had a second - round reduction. In the short - term, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1067.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1514.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan. [2] - JM futures contract holding volume was 736419.00 lots, down 2212.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 42837.00 lots, down 1615.00 lots. [2] - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 35457.00 lots, up 3194.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was 912.00 lots, up 817.00 lots. [2] - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 94.00 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 155.50 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan. [2] - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 200.00 sheets, down 100.00 sheets; coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00 sheets, unchanged. [2] - JM main contract basis was 542.50 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J main contract basis was 260.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimaodu Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Russian prime coking coal forward spot price was 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal price was 1490.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal price was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke price was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal price was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 million tons. [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.02%; the monthly raw coal output was 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 million tons. [2] - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons. [2] - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons, up 11.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 million tons. [2] - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 million tons. [2] - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 794.65 million tons, down 3.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 million tons. [2] - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.82 days, down 0.06 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.37 days. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 million tons. [2] - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68%. [2] - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton. [2] - The monthly output of coke was 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 million tons. [2] - The weekly blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.61%, down 1.53%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90%, down 1.16%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 million tons. The steel market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price in January will first decline and then stabilize with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. [2] - From January to November, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%; real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.8%. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced to include some steel products in the scope of export license management. In the short - term, it will bring challenges such as slower export rhythm and increased compliance costs, but in the long - term, it will optimize the export structure and support the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry. [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏弱 | | | ★ | | 应预计暂充足，库存环比下降利多有限。豆粕预计短线暂维持偏弱行情。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线偏弱 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油本月前 10 日产量环比维持增加，利空市场情绪打压期价下跌。关注马棕 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 榈油后续数据情况。由于 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，也将限制棕榈油持续 | | | | 调整空间，关注调整后企稳短多机会。12 月预计偏震荡为主。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存环比略下降，但仍高于五年同期。南美天气改善，棕榈油端数据 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 邝志鹏 市场分析 玻璃方面，本周玻璃主力合约2601下跌，收盘价为935元/吨，环比下跌59元/吨，跌幅5.94%。现货方 面，据隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均价1100元/吨，环比上涨2.24元/吨，成交重心下移。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 风险 供应方面，本周浮法玻璃企业开工率73.99%，环比增加0.34%，产能利用率77.48%，环比持平。需求方 面，本周浮法玻璃市场需求延续偏弱走势，下游按需采购为主。库存方面，本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业 总库存5822.7万重箱，环比减少2.05%，环比去库。整体来看，本周伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩 扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化， 但仍处高位，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面，本周纯碱主力合约2605下跌，收盘价为1127元/吨，环比下跌87元/吨，跌幅7.17%。现货方 面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供应方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，本周纯碱产能利用率84.35%，环比增加3. ...

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/15 金信期货日刊 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 需求端钢厂高炉开工率下降，铁水产量下滑，对焦煤采购谨慎，竞拍流拍率达30%-50%。且2601合约临 近交割，仓单成本低导致多头接货意愿弱，还将向875元区间靠拢。 焦煤连续多日下跌，后市怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 12月以来焦煤期货跌势显著，主力2605合约逼近1000元关口，2601合约击穿950元支撑位，后续短期仍 趋弱，中期有改善可能。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 具体如下 ，短期空头主导格局难逆转，供应端蒙煤口岸通关量长期高位，1 - 11月进口焦煤同比增幅超 15%，完全覆盖国产煤缺口。 中期来看，蒙煤或因气温下降通关量回落，国内部分煤矿也可能提前停产。 而随着焦煤价格下跌，钢厂利润有望修复，铁水减产速率会放缓，春节前备货和冬储补库需求或带动焦煤 价格止跌，届时大概率转为震荡偏强走势，但反弹高度受需求复苏程度限制 。 宏观政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the silicon-manganese market is currently experiencing bottom - level oscillations supported by costs, with weak supply - demand dynamics and high inventory. The manganese silicon主力2603 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5550 - 5900. The overall production will remain stable, while the demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In 2026, the national new - built commercial housing sales area is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new - start area to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment to decline by 11%. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas include stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient coal utilization [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 13000 tons, and the demand for hot metal has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 420 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December is 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In December, the production in southern regions may further decline, while northern regions remain relatively stable. Inner Mongolia has new production capacity and production conversion, and overall production will be stable. Ningxia may have maintenance in December due to cost and hedging pressure, but the reduction in production is expected to be small. The national crude - steel production reduction policy will continue in 2025, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 617000 lots, a decrease of 15700 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, an increase of 4 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts increased by 4025 to 25232, and the spread between manganese - silicon and silicon - iron active contracts decreased by 24 points to 260 [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 36.85%, an increase of 0.14%. The daily average production was 27035 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 3.26% to 112787 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.69% to 189245 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5500 tons to 381000 tons [28][33]. - **Upstream**: As of December 10, the price of South African and Australian manganese ore remained unchanged. As of December 8, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while that in Ningxia increased by 2.53%. As of December 5, the total manganese - ore inventory was 4.513 million tons, an increase of 2.97%. The arrival of South African and Gabonese manganese ore increased, while that of Australian and Ghanaian manganese ore decreased. The silicon - manganese spot production cost in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased, and the spot profit in the northern region decreased [38][44][50]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous week and 32700 tons from the same period last year. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from November [54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1035.0, down 4.39%. The short - term market sentiment of coking coal has weakened. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, showing a weak short - term trend [2]. - On December 11, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1491.5, down 2.96%. The spot market has seen a second - round price cut. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, showing a weak short - term trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1035.00 yuan/ton, down 35.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1491.50 yuan/ton, down 35.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 790767.00 lots, down 15390.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 47200.00 lots, up 170.00 lots [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 74511.00 lots, down 71691.00 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 51.00 lots, down 51.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 contract spread was 101.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 contract spread was 165.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 952.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was 338.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 575.00 yuan/ton, up 35.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.02 percentage points; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 470.60 million tons, up 5.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 245.80 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 798.27 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 sample steel mills was 625.25 million tons, down 0.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises were 12.88 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills were 11.29 days, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.84%, up 0.89 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 30.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 80.14%, down 0.93 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.06%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November, China's CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, rising for two consecutive months [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, in line with market expectations [2]. - The global steel production pattern is changing. The production in China, Japan, and South Korea is in a downward trend due to peak consumption, while the production in India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is growing rapidly. It is expected that the global total steel supply will increase slightly by 0.5% - 1% in 2026 [2]. - The Mexican Senate passed a new import and export tariff bill, which will impose tariffs of 5% - 50% on some products from multiple Asian countries including China starting next year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, the macro - level sentiment is weak. The import volume of Mongolian coal is high, the capacity utilization rate of mines is declining, and the inventory of the mid - upstream is increasing. The short - term trend is weak [2]. - For coke, the spot price has been cut for the second time. Coking enterprises will implement production restrictions. The demand for coke is weak, and the inventory is neutral to weak. The short - term trend is weak [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 3、库存: 社会库存为74.5万吨，环比减少3.74%，厂内库存为58.8万吨，环比增加1.20%，港口稀释沥青库存 为库存为67万吨，环比增加17.54%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续累库。 中性。 4、盘面: MA20向下，02合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本 ...