欧洲央行副行长金多斯：尽管油价波动，核心通胀回落的过程完全没有受到干扰。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

智通财经6月24日电，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，尽管存在油价波动，但欧洲央行仍可能降息。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, mainly following oil price fluctuations, and is expected to operate strongly [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices of BU2509 and BU2508 contracts are provided, with their respective price increases of 0.8% and 1.02%, and trading volumes of 31.75 and 4.75 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The high opening of crude oil and asphalt futures had a positive impact on the spot market [6] - Supply: Jiangsu Xinhai plans to resume asphalt production, but Maoming Petrochemical has no resumption plan, and Jinling Petrochemical in East China and Liaohe Petrochemical in Northeast China have reduced production loads. The average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to continue to decline [6] - Profit: Oil prices are expected to remain high, but the increase in asphalt prices may be limited. Asphalt production profits are expected to improve slightly [6] - Demand: There is limited room for improvement in asphalt demand. Traders and downstream users are cautious and mainly purchase on demand [6] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3760 - 4030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Rising international oil prices and asphalt futures have driven up prices, and the market is cautious [8] - East China Market: The mainstream intended price of 70A grade asphalt is 3680 - 3770 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although the rainy season has affected demand, the strong crude oil and asphalt futures have given impetus to price increases. Pay attention to the possibility of Sinopec raising prices [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [12][16][20][25]

Supply and Demand - As of June 19, the overall operating rate of MEG is 70.33%, an increase of 4.08%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 70.16%, up by 1.73% [2] - As of June 23, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - Geopolitical factors have temporarily halted Iranian ethylene glycol facilities, which has supported a strong performance in ethylene glycol; however, Iranian inventory is still being shipped normally, and the actual arrival volume in July is expected to have little impact [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene glycol facilities are operating at full capacity, and two 700,000-ton facilities in Saudi Arabia are expected to restart soon, with local facility load increasing and planned shipping volume rising compared to the previous period [3] - In the short term, with the recovery of domestic facilities and weak demand expectations, supply and demand are unlikely to provide upward momentum for ethylene glycol, and with geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices significantly dropping, a price correction for ethylene glycol is anticipated; the short-term focus for EG09 is on the resistance level of 4,500 [3] Spot Market - On June 23, ethylene glycol prices opened high and then retreated, with market discussions remaining acceptable; overnight crude oil prices rose, leading to an early high opening for ethylene glycol, with spot transactions reaching around 4,640-4,650 yuan/ton [1] - Following news of Iranian facility restart intentions, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline; in the afternoon, the market saw narrow fluctuations with weak trading [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices also retreated from recent highs, with early discussions around 538-540 USD/ton, later falling to 531-533 USD/ton, and afternoon discussions around 533-535 USD/ton, with some trades executed at 531 USD/ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in oil and gas stocks due to a sharp drop in international oil prices [1] - Affected companies include Tongyuan Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Baomo Co., Taishan Petroleum, Beiken Energy, Zhun Oil, Zhongman Petroleum, and Shandong Molong, all of which experienced trading halts at their lower limits [1] - The international crude oil futures settlement prices saw a substantial decrease, with WTI crude oil futures for August contracts falling by 7.22% and Brent crude oil futures for August contracts dropping by 7.18% [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant decline on June 23, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for August dropping by $5.33 to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 7.22%, and Brent crude oil futures for August falling by $5.53 to $71.48 per barrel, a decrease of 7.18% [1] - Concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies were initially heightened following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which raised fears of increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that if transportation disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices could rise to $110 per barrel, with an average forecast of $95 per barrel by Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Iranian government responded to U.S. actions by launching missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, although the attack was intercepted without causing casualties [2] - Market sentiment shifted from tension to cautious observation following Iran's relatively restrained response, suggesting limited upward pressure on oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains open [2] - President Trump called for stability in oil prices and urged for immediate expansion of drilling, interpreted as a push for the U.S. energy sector [2] Group 3 - Reports indicated that Israel and Iran reached an agreement for a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire," leading to further declines in international oil prices during Asian trading hours on June 24 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on the global oil market, highlighting that while geopolitical risks have increased, analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would limit the sustainability of the current geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][5][7]. Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Following the conflict's escalation, Brent crude oil futures rose over 3%, reaching $81.40 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.40, marking five-month highs. Since June 13, Brent crude has increased by 13%, and WTI by approximately 10% [6]. - The CBOE crude oil volatility index has reached levels similar to those seen shortly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may not be sustainable if there are no substantial disruptions to oil supply [7][8]. Worst-Case Scenarios - Two worst-case scenarios are discussed: the potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and instability within the Iranian regime. If the Strait were to be blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach between $100 and $120 per barrel [2][11][12][13]. - Historical data indicates that significant military conflicts involving Israel have not led to lasting impacts on oil prices, with prices often stabilizing and declining over time [8][9]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict that if oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is halved due to a blockade, Brent prices could spike to $110, followed by a decline [13]. - The potential for political instability in Iran could lead to significant changes in oil production policies, which may result in prolonged price increases [15][16]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while the current geopolitical tensions have led to a temporary spike in oil prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with analysts expecting prices to stabilize unless there are significant supply disruptions [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly focusing on the impact of military actions on the oil and shipping sectors, highlighting significant price increases in shipping rates and potential implications for oil prices [1][4][10]. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile projects have been "severely damaged," and Israel's objectives are "very close to completion" [1][4]. - Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's leadership indicated that they would not engage in diplomatic negotiations before retaliating [1][4]. - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, although the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [7][10]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The A-share shipping sector experienced a significant surge, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit [2][9]. - The rental prices for large oil tankers have skyrocketed, with the daily rental for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) increasing from $19,998 to $47,609, a rise of 138% [9][10]. - The rental rates for Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers also saw a substantial increase, from $21,097 to $51,879, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs due to heightened security risks in the region [10]. Group 3: Oil Price Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will experience significant upward pressure, with Brent crude futures potentially breaking the $80 per barrel mark and fluctuating between $70 and $100 per barrel [10]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to contribute to volatility in oil prices and shipping rates, driven by the uncertainty surrounding Iran's potential actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz [10].