Group 1 - The World Steel Association's latest short-term demand forecast predicts global steel demand will remain stable at approximately 1.75 billion tons in 2025, with a mild rebound of 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons in 2026 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the steel industry demand is expected to gradually bottom out, with market-driven supply adjustments beginning to appear, indicating a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to a quicker upward trend in the industry [1] Group 2 - Xinda Securities notes that despite the current supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline in the steel industry, demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and high steel exports [2] - The tightening of steel supply under price control policies and the increasing industry concentration are expected to maintain a stable overall supply-demand situation [2] - The steel industry is anticipated to improve gradually, with structural investment opportunities present, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a combination of macroeconomic and structural policies to stabilize China's economy and promote high-quality development in the face of insufficient effective demand and structural changes in key industries [3][6][12]. Economic Growth and Structural Characteristics - China's economic cycles are characterized by structural features, where macroeconomic fluctuations are primarily driven by a few key industries, reflecting the evolution of the industrial structure [4]. - The real estate sector has historically played a significant role in driving economic growth, but its contribution may have peaked, necessitating a focus on emerging industries for future growth [5][6]. Policy Recommendations - A dual approach is recommended: macro policies should focus on overall economic stability, while industry-specific policies should address structural challenges [6][10]. - Structural monetary policy should be employed to alleviate credit constraints in key sectors like real estate, while also guiding credit towards emerging sectors such as advanced manufacturing and digital economy [8][9]. - Fiscal policy should aim to stabilize traditional industries while supporting the development of new industries, with a focus on optimizing existing assets and enhancing public services [9][10]. Risk Management and Monitoring - It is crucial to identify key traditional industries and establish a monitoring mechanism to manage risks effectively, ensuring that macro policies are complemented by targeted industry policies [7][10]. - Macro-prudential policies should be adapted to address unique risks in both traditional and emerging industries, ensuring financial stability during economic fluctuations [10]. Expectations Management - Different industries respond differently to macro policies, necessitating tailored communication strategies to manage expectations effectively [11]. - For industries facing risks, timely communication about risk mitigation efforts is essential to prevent negative sentiment, while clear long-term goals should be articulated for emerging sectors to foster confidence [11]. Long-term Perspective - The article concludes that while the current policy framework is necessary for short-term stability, long-term economic vitality will depend on deeper reforms to address structural and systemic barriers [12].

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - The impact of the new round of tariffs on the domestic economy is expected to be limited, with a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in the first nine months, yet overall exports still achieved a 6.1% year-on-year growth[3] - Since Q3, domestic economic pressure has increased, with fixed asset investment growth dropping to 0.5% year-on-year in August and retail sales growth at 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a need for new growth stabilization policies[3] - The anticipated new growth stabilization policies are expected to be moderate, focusing on support rather than strong stimulus, with Q3 economic growth projected between 4.7% and 4.9%[3] U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement two more rate cuts, although the market has already priced in approximately 4.7 rate cuts by the end of next year, limiting further rate reduction space[3] - Market sentiment regarding tariffs is divided, with optimistic views suggesting a quick rebound in U.S. and Chinese stock markets, while pessimistic views foresee potential corrections due to a lack of substantial concessions[3] Market Trends - Following the tariff-related adjustments, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase from October to November, with a potential shift from AI hardware to defensive sectors and industries supported by performance logic[3] - The bond market is experiencing a temporary downward adjustment in rates, with the 10-year yield expected to stabilize between 1.70% and 1.75% due to external risks and domestic economic fundamentals[4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.31%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56%. Most tech stocks increased, with SMIC rising over 2%, and JD Group and Alibaba both up over 1% [1] - China Galaxy's strategy suggests that short-term escalation in US-China trade tensions has led to a decline in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and medium to long-term measures to support the stock market are expected to gradually stabilize investor sentiment [1] - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at a historically high level, and the market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Junan overseas strategy team reported that foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors. Conversely, southbound capital has significant influence in a few sectors such as telecommunications, coal and petrochemicals, military, and semiconductors, with notable pricing power in the semiconductor, broad consumer, and broad dividend sectors over the past two years [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, in response to China's rare earth export controls[1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection will impose port fees on Chinese-owned vessels starting October 14, 2025[1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added several Chinese entities to the export control list on October 8, 2025[1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The tariff threat is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive action, with a low probability of the 100% tariff being implemented[2] - Both countries are likely to extend export controls to more sectors, with the U.S. potentially adding more Chinese companies to the control list[2] - Trump's immediate goal is to secure more direct investments and benefits for U.S. farmers, particularly in agricultural exports to China[2] Group 3: Economic Impact - If the 100% tariff is fully implemented, it could reduce China's exports by approximately 11.3 percentage points and increase U.S. inflation by about 3.2 percentage points[3] - The report suggests that the actual impact may be less severe due to factors like re-exports and delays in tariff transmission[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Increased tariff risks may lead to heightened volatility in equity markets, with potential adjustments of 10-20% expected[2] - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for equity assets remains cautiously optimistic as Trump may seek to stabilize the situation[2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued a notice to strengthen the construction of new information infrastructure, emphasizing the integration and large-scale application of "5G + industrial internet" [1] - The plan aims to enhance the supply of industrial data elements, promote the resourceization, assetization, and elementization of data, and build a number of high-quality industry data sets [1] Group 2 - Shanghai aims to cultivate around 20 leading enterprises in future industry ecosystems by 2027, focusing on breakthrough disruptive technologies and systematic development of future industry clusters [2] - By 2030, Shanghai plans to foster a number of strategic emerging industries, establishing itself as a globally influential leader in future industries [2] Group 3 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative sales area of newly built commercial residential properties nationwide reached approximately 5 billion square meters [3]

2025年10月9日，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，中国人民银行以利率招标方式开展11000 亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月份有8000亿元同期限逆回购到期，此次操作实现净 投放3000亿元中期流动性。央行开展如此大规模的逆回购操作，不仅是技术上的流动性管理， 更具有深刻的政策信号意义。这一操作清晰释放出央行积极应对潜在流动性缺口、稳固资金面 的明确信号，蕴含着稳增长、稳预期与防风险的多重考量。 央行选择在节后首个工作日立即出手，是对10月份乃至第四季度复杂流动性形势的前瞻性、针 对性应对，凸显了在复杂内外环境下货币政策精准调控、有的放矢的取向。这次操作背后，皆 在应对资金面潜在三重收紧压力。 首先，政府债券较大规模发行引起市场资金趋紧。 9月份全国共发行地方债12843亿元，净融 资额为11056亿元，发行量和净融资额均创年内新高。按照计划，今年新增地方债和超长期特 别国债均在10月份发行完毕，将继续吸纳市场资金。央行开展逆回购操作，精准地对冲政府债 券大规模发行带来的流动性压力，这是货币政策与财政政策协同、稳定市场预期的关键之举。 其次，政策性工具发力引致资金需求上升。 9月29日，国家发改委宣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with characteristics such as "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption." Meanwhile, external tariff pressure has increased, and the domestic government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies [1]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown. The shutdown has affected economic data releases, and there are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, while the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weakening economic data and rising external tariff pressure. The government has introduced pro - growth policies, such as the central bank's call for strengthened monetary policy regulation and the planned use of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments [1]. - On October 9, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3,900 - point mark for the first time in a decade. The non - ferrous metal sector rose, and the semiconductor industry chain was active. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated downward, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors adjusted. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities such as gold and copper rose [1]. - The US government shutdown entered its second week on October 8, affecting economic data releases. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts. US economic data showed mixed performance, with the manufacturing and service PMIs slightly declining in September, while retail sales and new home sales performed well [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The non - ferrous sector is still facing long - term supply constraints and is recently boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has come into effect [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term, but still need signals from the fundamentals [3]. - Due to the US government shutdown and continuous central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the game at key points [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, which will take effect on November 8, 2025 [5]. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 1.1 trillion yuan in fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multiple - price - winning买断式 reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. More than 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.67 trillion yuan [5]. - Most Fed officials said that continued easing this year may be appropriate, and they emphasized the upside risks to inflation. Employment faces relatively high downside risks [5]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 153, up 0.2% on the day, for the first time since February [2][5]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza officially came into effect at noon on October 9 [3][5].