Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while the steel industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall profits, the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. This includes stabilization in the real estate sector, steady infrastructure investment, and continued development in manufacturing [4][43] - The report highlights that the average iron water cost has decreased, and the profit margins for rebar steel have shown slight improvement, indicating potential for recovery in the industry [4][57] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.73% this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products also showing slight declines [3][11] - Iron ore prices increased by 0.30%, while steel consumption rose by 1.02% week-on-week [3][35] 2. Supply Data - As of May 30, the average daily iron water output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 thousand tons week-on-week, but an increase of 5.11 thousand tons year-on-year [3][26] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 90.7% and 59.0%, respectively, both showing slight declines [3][26] 3. Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.138 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.23 thousand tons [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 102 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.71% [3][35] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 9.325 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [3][43] - Factory inventory also saw a decline, totaling 4.331 million tons, a decrease of 1.12% week-on-week [3][43] 5. Price and Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,386.7 yuan/ton, down 1.90% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6,630.7 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [3][49] - The profit for rebar steel from blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% week-on-week, while electric furnace profits were negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][57] 6. Raw Material Prices - The price of Australian iron ore at the port was 737 yuan/ton, down 2.25% week-on-week [4][71] - The price of coking coal was 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][71] 7. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios for companies like Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and others [4][72]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased volatility in the international trade environment, China's industrial enterprises above a designated size reported a profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a continued recovery trend [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with April alone showing a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.4% [2]. - The revenue profit margin for these enterprises rose by 0.17 percentage points to 4.87%, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - A series of stable growth policies have been implemented to support industrial enterprises, particularly in response to external pressures [1][2]. - The State Council's meeting on April 18 emphasized measures to stabilize employment and foreign trade, as well as to promote consumption and domestic demand [1]. - Policies such as increased export tax rebates and financial support for foreign trade enterprises have created a favorable environment for trade development [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the way [3]. - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 11.2%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises remains low, indicating a need for continued monitoring of profit trends [4]. - Expectations suggest that adjustments in tariffs between China and the U.S. may lead to reduced export costs and improved external demand, further supporting profit growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]

研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall profit from blast furnace steel production is considered satisfactory, and the profit recovery for general steel companies may accelerate [3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry's overall profit is expected to decline, but with the implementation of various "stability growth" policies, steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [4]. - The report highlights that general steel companies, which are less affected by export tariffs, may see significant performance improvements due to the marginal recovery in demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 0.94% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (0.28%), long products (0.36%), and flat products (1.21%) [3][11]. 2. Supply Data - As of May 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.17 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 6.71 tons [28]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 2.93 percentage points to 59.5% [28]. 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.046 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92,000 tons, reflecting a 1.01% decline [37]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 1.47 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.33% decrease [37]. 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.606 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 331,000 tons, or 3.33% [45]. - Factory inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons, up 0.99 tons week-on-week, but down 6.67% year-on-year [45]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, down 33.36 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.96% [51]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,652.6 yuan/ton, down 3.32 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.05% [51]. 6. Profitability - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 88 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 14.56% [59]. - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [59]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong cost control [4].

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 21 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.31%至 78100 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和，叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳，同时美国 通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价 有所提振。基本面，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，创历史新低，但下跌速 度放缓，短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行，持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈，下游订单新增相对有限，消费提升空间不 大，5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑，虽好于去年同期，但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱，现货升 水或将承压。整体来看，宏观偏好，而基本面有所转弱，沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 21 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.65%至 20190 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域，禁止开采，推动氧化铝大涨，后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨，全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨，周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...

Group 1 - The core prediction for 2025 indicates a decline in the US stock market, dollar, and US Treasury bonds, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a bull market driven by technology stocks [1][2] - The US economy is projected to slow down, with the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle, leading to a gradual decline in the dollar index and increased risks of a peak in the US stock market [2][3] - The recent launch of China's DeepSeek model has challenged the perception of US technological dominance, contributing to a decline in US tech stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been delayed due to concerns over rising prices from the trade war, despite previous cuts totaling 100 basis points [3][4] - Warren Buffett's significant reduction in US stock holdings is attributed to high valuations, with Berkshire Hathaway holding $350 billion in cash, indicating a cautious approach to market entry [4] - China's economic data shows improvement, with a target GDP growth of around 5% for the year, necessitating more stable growth policies to boost investment and consumption [5][6] Group 3 - A significant shift of household savings towards capital markets is anticipated, as the real estate market has peaked and is no longer a viable investment avenue [6][7] - The decline in deposit rates below 1% is expected to encourage investments in the stock market, with government policies aimed at stabilizing both the real estate and stock markets [7][8] - Fiscal policies are expected to play a crucial role in stimulating consumption and investment, especially during periods of economic slowdown [8][9] Group 4 - The market is likely to favor high-quality leading stocks in sectors such as brand consumption, new energy, technology, and brokerage firms, with technology stocks leading the charge [8][9] - International market volatility is expected to increase, with gold prices projected to rise in the long term due to the depreciation of the dollar's value [9][10] - The expectation of a stronger RMB and increased foreign investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is noted, as Chinese assets are considered undervalued [10][11] Group 5 - A bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is anticipated, with significant investment opportunities and a notable increase in the potential for profit [11][12] - The overall market is still at a low point, presenting a favorable time for strategic investments in Chinese assets as valuations are expected to recover [11][12]

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 20 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.26%至 77540 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和，叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳，同时美国 通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价 有所提振。基本面，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，创历史新低，但下跌速 度放缓，短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行，持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈，下游订单新增相对有限，消费提升空间不 大，5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑，虽好于去年同期，但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱，现货升 水或将承压。整体来看，宏观偏好，而基本面有所转弱，沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 20 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.45%至 20075 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝 价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨 至 8685 万吨，全国氧化铝库存 324.6 万吨，周度环比减少 4.2 万吨。氧 化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are aimed at addressing the high real interest rates that are constraining economic growth and consumer spending [1][2][3] Group 1: LPR and Deposit Rate Adjustments - On May 20, the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [1][2] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also lowered deposit rates, with the rates for demand deposits, 1-year fixed deposits, and 3-year fixed deposits reduced to 0.05%, 0.95%, and 1.25%, respectively [1][2] - The adjustments are part of a broader financial policy initiative that was anticipated in the market, reflecting a transmission mechanism linking policy rates to LPR and deposit rates [2][9] Group 2: Economic Implications - High real interest rates are identified as a significant barrier to economic growth, increasing debt pressure and limiting investment and consumption [1][3] - The reduction in nominal interest rates, through both LPR and deposit rate cuts, is expected to balance asset-liability sheets and stimulate microeconomic activity [1][3] - The adjustments are seen as a necessary step to enhance the overall demand in the economy and support growth [9] Group 3: Changes in Rate Adjustment Patterns - The recent LPR adjustments indicate a shift in the approach to rate cuts, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR being reduced simultaneously, a departure from previous practices where they were adjusted separately [10][11] - This change is attributed to a broader growth stabilization strategy that encompasses various sectors beyond real estate, including manufacturing and consumer spending [11][12] Group 4: Deposit Rate Dynamics - The reduction in fixed deposit rates is more pronounced than that of demand deposit rates, leading to a flatter deposit rate curve [12][13] - This strategy aims to alleviate the trend of deposit termization and reduce banks' funding costs, thereby enhancing their lending capacity [12][13] - The overall decline in deposit rates is intended to stabilize interest margins and encourage banks to increase credit supply to the real economy [13][14] Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The current monetary policy adjustments are seen as a foundational step, with further fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures anticipated to support consumption, trade, and technological advancements [15][16] - The government aims to enhance income for low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to drive economic growth [15][16] - Ongoing efforts to optimize supply-side policies and address competitive pressures in various sectors are also highlighted as critical for future economic stability [16]