Core Viewpoint - The recent bull market in Chinese assets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, has been significantly driven by the AI industry and is expected to establish a new market pattern, with various investment opportunities emerging despite potential external disturbances [1][2]. Market Characteristics - The current bull market is characterized by more precise and effective policy support, including innovative monetary policy tools introduced by the central bank, which aim to stabilize the capital market and encourage long-term funds to enter the market [2][3]. - Institutional funds dominate the current market, with a notable influx of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds, leading to a shift from speculative trading to profit-driven investment [3][4]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased by 47% from September 2024 to August 2025, indicating potential for further growth [3]. Investment Opportunities - Emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are expected to remain the main investment themes, supported by favorable industrial policies [4][5]. - Other sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials, are also seen as having significant investment potential [4][5]. - "Hard assets" and sectors with competitive advantages in manufacturing and exports, including gold, resources, and public utilities, are highlighted as areas of interest for future investments [5]. Market Response Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach to market fluctuations, distinguishing between short-term disturbances and long-term trends, and to maintain a long-term investment perspective [6]. - Strategies include optimizing asset allocation, focusing on companies with stable performance, and maintaining a balanced portfolio to manage risks effectively [6]. - The market is expected to experience normal fluctuations during its upward trajectory, with the potential for new highs in the A-share market supported by favorable internal policies and industry growth [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has an overall suppressive effect on raw material varieties and supports steel prices, but it falls short of previous expectations [2]. - The anti - involution policy for iron ore has been implemented, which is also below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, affecting the market [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Threaded steel production has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a rebound in apparent demand and a decrease in total inventory. The total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. Apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, but the overall apparent demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and total inventory is still increasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see stance [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has been implemented, which is below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the profitability of sample steel mills declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decrease in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventories have not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak consumption season. Before the holiday, the replenishment demand of steel mills supports iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated upwards but then fell after reaching a high. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Strategy and Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, patiently wait for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years, with measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and promotion of the transformation of steel enterprises [6]. - From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron ore arrival volume in Chinese ports increased [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For soda ash, it is expected that supply will be loose, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to be under pressure. However, with the hype of the "anti - involution" policy, there may be changes. The report suggests short - term long positions on the soda ash main contract when the price is low [2]. - For glass, although the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, if the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The report suggests short - term long positions on the glass main contract when the price is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1273 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Glass main contract closing price: 1183 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 90 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position: 1415505 lots [2]. - Glass main contract position: 1315901 lots, up 41822 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 275366 lots, up 3732 lots [2]. - Glass top 20 net position: - 194539 lots, up 21194 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2154 tons [2]. - Glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 68 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - Glass basis: - 103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - January - May glass contract spread: - 129 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - January - May soda ash contract spread: - 88 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1225 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Central China light soda ash: 1215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1080 yuan/ton [2]. - Central China glass sheets: 1140 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.53%, down 1.76 percentage points [2]. - Float glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01% [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year [2]. - Glass in - production line number: 225 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 169.57 tons, down 5.99 tons [2]. - Glass enterprise inventory: 6090.8 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 67.5 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 39801.01 ten - thousand square meters, up 4595.01 ten - thousand square meters [2]. - Cumulative real - estate completion area: 27693.54 ten - thousand square meters, up 2659.54 ten - thousand square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Sino - US bilateral economic and trade relations are expected to be promoted, and the two sides are in communication about a possible meeting at APEC [2]. - China's military and naval forces have carried out important activities, and the Fujian aircraft carrier has achieved take - off and landing training of three types of carrier - based aircraft [2]. - The CSRC and the SSE plan to promote capital market reforms and the entry of long - term funds [2]. - The central bank governor mentioned that China's monetary policy adheres to its own stance and takes into account internal and external balance [2]. 3.6 Macro - situation and Market Outlook - For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production are decreasing in the short term, and in the long run, backward production capacity may be phased out, while natural soda ash production capacity is increasing. Glass production is at a low level, and photovoltaic glass demand may decline. Soda ash inventory is rising slightly, and prices will be under pressure [2]. - For glass, production is at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and profits are rising due to higher spot prices. Real - estate demand is currently weak, but may be supported by interest rate cuts. The market will fluctuate around demand, and the de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the coke main contract closed at 1,717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67% on the day. The spot prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port had slight changes. Last week, the coke daily output was basically flat week-on-week, and the iron water daily output increased slightly. With the approaching National Day holiday, the pre - holiday restocking demand supported the spot price. The coke fundamentals had no prominent contradictions, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures fluctuated in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [5][34]. - On September 23, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,217.5 points, down 0.94% on the day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained flat week - on - week. Last week, the coking coal output increased, and the import volume at the 288 Port reached a high. The demand side's output was basically flat week - on - week. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals had insufficient support, but the pre - National Day restocking expectation and the end - of - month mine production reduction expectation supported the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level fluctuations [6][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - On September 22, in the press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan", it was mentioned that the real - estate financial policy was effective. The urban real - estate financing coordination mechanism issued over 7 trillion yuan in loans, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [8]. - On September 23, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the medium - sulfur primary coking coal's ex - factory price at 1,260 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 2.67% week - on - week. The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port remained unchanged week - on - week [5][6][10]. Futures Market - The coke main contract closed at 1,717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, with a trading volume of 25,522 and a position of 44,874, down 425 from the previous trading day. The coking coal main contract closed at 1,217.5 points, down 0.94%, with a trading volume of 1,065,414 and a position of 706,845, down 9,423 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports, as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw purchases, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operations [14][22][27]. Market Outlook - The coke market has no prominent fundamental contradictions, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures fluctuate in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals have insufficient support, but the pre - National Day restocking expectation and the end - of - month mine production reduction expectation support the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level fluctuations [5][6][34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the CSI A500 index has significantly impacted the Chinese capital market, leading to a surge in investment products and a notable increase in market performance over the past year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 22, the number of products linked to the CSI A500 reached 416, with a total scale of 236.41 billion yuan, ranking second in the market for both quantity and scale [1]. - The CSI A500 index has outperformed major indices, achieving a cumulative increase of 46.51% over the past year, surpassing the performance of the CSI 300 by over 5% [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2,700 points to around 3,900 points, reflecting a nearly 40% increase, indicating a significant recovery in investor risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The past year has seen a shift in investment strategies, with increased participation from private equity and financing funds, as well as a rise in passive investment products among retail investors [5]. - The technology growth sector has led the market, with the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector being the primary driver of the current bullish trend [7][9]. - The CSI A500 index is heavily weighted towards emerging industries, with electronics and power equipment making up 30% of its composition, contrasting with the CSI 300, which is predominantly weighted towards banking [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the future performance of the A-share market, with global asset management firms frequently expressing positive views on Chinese assets [11]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the current market structure is healthier and more sustainable, with a focus on "anti-involution" policies and AI-related investment opportunities as key growth drivers [11]. - The CSI A500 index ETF (563880) is expected to benefit from these trends, particularly due to its focus on new quality production industries and balanced exposure to both high-growth and stable sectors [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for urea is "Volatility" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous implementation of new urea production capacity and the limited impact of anti - involution policy expectations have led to persistent supply - side pressure. The key to the market lies in exports, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in export policies and whether the market will conduct a new round of export games for the 2605 contract [2][4][62] - The demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. Agricultural demand may be released periodically but with general intensity, and it will enter the traditional off - season after October. The enthusiasm for tendering in the off - season storage may be high, but the actual impact may be limited. Industrial demand is expected to be relatively stable [3][47] Summary by Directory 1. Export Increment Fails to Change the Excess Pattern, Urea Weakens after Oscillating in the Third Quarter - The existing export quota cannot correct the annual supply - demand surplus pattern of urea, and the profit center of the urea industry still has room to decline. The 2509 contract in the third quarter oscillated around 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract is currently running in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13] 2. New Urea Production Capacity Continues to Be Implemented, and the Impact of Anti - Involution Policy Expectations Is Temporarily Limited - In the third quarter, new urea production devices were put into operation as expected. From January to August, the urea output reached 48.14 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 13.3%, which put pressure on the urea price [18] - The impact of anti - involution policy expectations is limited. The proportion of truly old - fashioned production capacity is less than 5%, and the necessity of quickly clearing the remaining production capacity through administrative means is questionable. It is more likely to be cleared through the market [20][21] - In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure will still be large. It is estimated that the urea output will be 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7%. The variables are the possible extension of the gas - head device maintenance season and the impact of rising coal prices on marginal production capacity [24][25] 3. Agricultural Demand Has No Strong Driving Force, and Off - Season Storage May Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role 3.1 Recent Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Data Further Confirm the Overall Demand Front - Loading Problem This Year - The demand for urea in the first half of the year was higher than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading. The production and sales data of compound fertilizers from January to April were better than those in the same period of previous years, while the data from May to August were worse, indicating that the demand for compound fertilizers was overdrawn before May [34][35] 3.2 Off - Season Storage Can Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role, and Industrial Demand Remains Weak - The off - season storage policy this year is basically the same as last year. The enthusiasm for tendering may be high, but the procurement rhythm is expected to be scattered, mainly playing a bottom - supporting role [38][39] - The industrial demand for urea such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to have obvious improvement [42] 4. Low Inventory in India Boosts the Scale of Indian Tenders, Pay Attention to Export Regulation in the Fourth Quarter - The international urea price is stronger than expected. India's urea production from January to August decreased by 6% year - on - year, and its inventory is less than 50% of the same period last year, so it has carried out a large number of import tenders [48][49] - The excess supply situation in China has not changed. Although China's supply in Indian tenders has increased, it is still within the quota system, which has not changed the domestic inventory accumulation situation [53][55] - It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in China's export policy in the fourth quarter, such as the issuance of new quotas and the extension of the export window period [57][58] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the fourth quarter, the key contradiction is the continuous increase in urea factory inventory. The supply pressure will increase, and the demand is difficult to pick up significantly, so the key lies in exports [62] - The operating range of the 2601 contract is estimated to be 1580 - 1800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended that the off - season storage subjects disperse their storage rhythm [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester sector, recommending high-quality companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, while also suggesting attention to major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3][33][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year, impacting upstream oil and gas exploration and production [3][5][18]. - The downstream refining and chemical sector experienced a revenue drop of 10.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profits down 26.1% [33][35]. - The report notes a tightening supply-demand balance in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability in the upcoming months as the industry enters a seasonal peak [3][51]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q2 2025, the oil and gas exploration and production sector reported revenues of 1,526.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year, and net profits of 87.58 billion yuan, down 21.8% [17][19]. - The average gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, reflecting a decline due to falling oil prices [17][19]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical sector achieved revenues of 1,608.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, with net profits also down 26.1% [33][35]. - The average gross margin for this sector was 16.9%, impacted by inventory losses due to declining oil prices and weak downstream demand [33][35]. Price Trends and Margins - The report indicates that the price spread for major petrochemical products showed mixed results, with some margins improving while others contracted [12][34]. - The PTA-PX price spread was reported at 219 yuan per ton, down 21% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on the PTA segment [12][34]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to expected improvements in demand and profitability [3][51]. - It also recommends monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages [3][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, crude oil prices experienced a decline, leading to a decrease in upstream oil and gas extraction and midstream refining profitability, while downstream polyester profitability showed signs of recovery [4][5] - The overall revenue for the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector in Q2 2025 was 1,526.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.1% [19][21] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations for improved market conditions [4] Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Prices - Brent crude oil average prices for April, May, and June 2025 were 66.5, 64.0, and 69.8 USD/barrel, respectively, with a Q2 average of 66.7 USD/barrel, reflecting an 11.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 8.3% decrease year-on-year [4][20] - The report notes that gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton and 150 CNY/ton, respectively [20] Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector reported a total revenue of 1,526.15 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 87.58 billion, marking a year-on-year decline of 21.8% [19][21] - The gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to falling crude oil prices [19][21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 1,608.3 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [35][37] - The gross margin for the refining sector was 16.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to inventory losses from falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [35][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4] - It also suggests that the overall oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with a "U" shaped trend, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **多空因素** - **利多因素**: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] **镍仓单、库存** - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] **镍矿、镍铁价格** | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] **不锈钢生产成本** | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, with a high level of cold repair in the industry. The start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The national inventory of float glass enterprises is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 1.10% compared to the previous week. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is rising. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Overall, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Benefits**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Likely Detriments**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.40% to 1199 yuan/ton, the spot price of large boards in Shahe remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by - 12.50% to - 119 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific content on the cost - side situation is provided other than the repeated mention of glass production profit. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of float glass in the country is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history, but it has stabilized and rebounded [24]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - The report also mentions the need to analyze factors such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the start - up and order status of downstream processing plants, but specific influencing content is not provided. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [43]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].