Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].

Export Data - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%[2] - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to $103.22 billion in the previous month[2] Import Data - Imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect and resilient export performance, with the import volume showing significant growth[4] Export Drivers - The recovery in export growth was partly due to the delayed impact of the US-China tariff suspension, with the year-on-year decline in exports to the US narrowing by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1%[3] - Demand for re-export from ASEAN countries continued to rise, although future costs may increase due to the US-Vietnam tariff agreement[3] Import Trends - Strong demand for high-end manufacturing imports, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, contributed approximately 1.8 percentage points to import growth[4] - The import growth of most energy and mineral products was affected by price factors, particularly for copper[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to benefit from the tariff suspension in the short term, but pressure may emerge by the end of Q3 2025 due to elevated base effects and potential shifts in US demand[5] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties and unexpected changes in economic policies that could impact market sentiment[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after negotiations with 14 countries broke down, the U.S. is now seeking to engage China, indicating a shift in strategy from hardline tactics to a more conciliatory approach [1][14][22] - The U.S. issued a "final ultimatum" to 14 countries, imposing punitive tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on their products, which has led to a unified front among these nations against U.S. pressure [2][10][34] - The initial expectation that countries would yield to U.S. pressure has not materialized, with nations like Japan and South Korea taking a strong stance against U.S. tactics [3][5][28] Group 2 - The U.S. has only reached a framework agreement with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with other countries have failed, particularly in Southeast Asia [6][7] - The U.S. is facing internal pressure as domestic industries warn that increased tariffs on Asian components could lead to layoffs [10][32] - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs to reshape global supply chains is flawed, as it underestimates the complexity and interdependence of global manufacturing networks [39][40] Group 3 - The article highlights that the U.S. is now considering exemptions for certain Chinese products, indicating a potential shift in its approach to trade negotiations [20][22] - China's response to the U.S. overtures has been cautious, emphasizing that negotiations must be based on mutual respect and rejecting unilateral pressure [24][40] - The collective resistance from the 14 countries and China's measured response signal a significant challenge for the U.S. in its trade policy [26][34][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. Due to the release of US tariff policies with high tax rates and the EU's response to impose additional counter - tariff measures on $72 billion worth of US imported goods if trade negotiations fail, there is still high uncertainty as of the current date. Risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to US CPI data tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - related Information - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, 100% secondary tariffs will be imposed on Russia. US officials clarified that in addition to the 100% tariff, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian goods [2] - The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil requested the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days. Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - tariff decree regarding US tariffs [2] - The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods [1][2] - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering implementing zero - tariff policies on more US imported products [2] - The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Interest Rate - related Information - Trump believes that the Fed should lower interest rates below 1%. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset thinks the Fed should remain independent but is "very wrong" on the tariff issue. Fed's Harker believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [2]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 15 日 热点品种 豆油： 今日豆油主力 09 合约早盘开盘价 8010 元/吨，收盘价 8012 元/吨，收盘涨幅 0.30%，盘中最低触及 7984 元/吨，最高达到 8038 元/吨，价格突破 8000 元/吨 压力位，预期后续或将震荡偏强走势。供应端方面，未来两周美豆产区降雨略高 于常值，温度略低于常值，总体上有利于作物生长。国内油厂压榨率提升，油厂 周度压榨量保持在 200 万吨以上，豆油库存持续增加，根据金十期货最新数据显 示，全国重点地区豆油商业库存 104.94 万吨，环比上周增加 2.97 万吨，增幅 2.91%，豆油现货供应整体宽松。近两周工厂虽因油粕胀库的原因导致开机率自 半个月前的 70%下降至 60%左右，豆油产量减少，但是下游贸易商提货不多，导 致了工厂豆油库存继续增加。需求端方面，国际原油下跌，买豆油卖豆粕套利仍 在，且国内油脂消费淡季叠加国内中央经济工作会议提出价格反内卷信号，宏观 资金寻找低价远月合约做多，近期 ...

新华财经上海7月15日电（葛佳明） 当地时间7月15日（周二）20:30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI），反映最新的通胀走势。在去 年同期CPI数据的低基数效应及关税逐步传导的作用下，6月CPI数据将持续反弹，关税对物价的影响或在今晚的报告中体现。 新华财经汇总发现，机构分析师普遍预期，6月美国CPI同比增速料从5月的2.4%升至2.7%，为2023年底以来高位，核心CPI从2.8%反弹至3%，环比增速均上 行至0.3%。 目前，美联储内部对后续利率路径呈现较大分歧，但多数美联储官员仍对后续降息持谨慎态度，因此如果6月CPI数据高于预期，或将进一步推迟美联储宽 松的步伐，反之则有望推动市场押注美联储9月提前采取降息行动，也可能成为美国总统特朗普进一步施压美联储主席鲍威尔的关键数据。 高频数据暗示通胀出现反弹 美国劳工部今年6月公布的数据显示，今年5月美国CPI同比上涨2.4%，较4月2.3%的涨幅有所上升，但涨幅已连续四个月低于预期。剔除波动较大的食品和 能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 根据克利夫兰联储的Nowcast模型预测，6月整体CPI同比增速较上月的2.4%攀升至2 ...

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - The global manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.3, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[6] - The production index rose by 2.3 percentage points to 51.3, while the demand index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.1, showing significant recovery in both supply and demand[25] - Emerging markets saw a substantial recovery, with a 1.2 percentage point increase to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone[31] Group 2: Regional Insights - China's manufacturing PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold, with new orders rising by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2[55] - The US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.0, still in contraction territory, with new orders experiencing the largest decline in three months[86] - India's manufacturing sector showed strong performance, while the EU manufacturing sector improved moderately, and ASEAN manufacturing weakened slightly[6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current phase of tariff relief is expected to provide temporary support to global manufacturing, but future tariff policies remain uncertain[7] - The pace of interest rate cuts in the US will continue to be constrained by inflationary pressures[7] - Risks include domestic and international economic fluctuations, changes in macro liquidity regulations, and potential oversupply of raw materials leading to price declines[7]

巴西政府同步启动《经济互惠法》，计划从8月1日起，对美国商品加征50%关税，并已将牛肉、橙汁等传统出口转向中东、南亚市场。面对特朗普的关税施 压，巴西直接用退信、申诉、提税三招反制，卢拉更是在电视讲话中强硬表态：没有美国巴西也能活。 关税信连遭3招反制，特朗普恼羞成怒，将不通知直接对120国加税？ 特朗普本想通过关税收割全球，但让他没想到的是，中国为首的一众发展中国家不买单，即便是美国的盟友，也不买账。如今特朗普设下的所谓90天关税期 限已到，他也决定主动出击，既然不来找美国谈判，那就直接加税。 据联合早报消息，特朗普在接受媒体采访时宣布，将对没有收到关税信函的120多个国家，直接征收15%或20%的统一关税。白宫官员私下透露，特朗普的 转变源于两方面压力，第一，巴西、日本等国的强硬态度打破了特朗普"逐个击破"的预期；第二，美国国内通胀高企与供应链紊乱，迫使特朗普加速推进关 税议程。 值得注意的是，这一波率先掀桌的是巴西。日前，巴西外交部以"内容失实且冒犯"为由，正式退回特朗普的关税威胁信函，成为首个公开拒绝美国单边要求 的国家。巴西总统卢拉在采访中直指美方数据漏洞：过去15年，美国对巴西贸易顺差累计达到41 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].