Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical sector is expected to reverse next year after four years of bottoming out, driven by anticipated demand recovery following the Federal Reserve's preemptive interest rate cuts [1] - The most significant impact of the anti-involution trend is on PTA and long silk, with a positive outlook for PTA due to major refining companies leading the charge, despite some opposition [1] - Future capacity additions in the PX chain are limited, with recent price increases attributed to maintenance by some companies and production cuts in Indian refineries, ultimately depending on next year's demand recovery [1] Group 2 - Currently, there is a liquidity bull market, with the market seeking outlets for investment, and the chemical sector is one of the areas being positioned for potential opportunities at the bottom [1] - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 2.09%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Xin Feng Ming (603225) up 8.56% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 8.52% [1] - The Chemical ETF (159870) increased by 2.22%, with the latest price reported at 0.83 yuan [1] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sectors [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index accounted for 45.41% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309) and Yanhua Co. (000792) [2]

Group 1 - The core investment logic for the chemical industry in 2026 focuses on the dual resonance of "cyclical reversal + emerging demand stimulation" [3] - The chemical industry has been in a down cycle for approximately 3.5 years, but with a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas capacities, the industry is expected to enter a low growth phase [3] - Recent price increases in chemical products are driven by multiple factors, including tightening supply due to reduced production capacity in Europe and domestic maintenance of large production facilities [3] Group 2 - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies emphasizing "anti-involution" and overseas production cuts due to rising raw material costs [4] - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with "anti-involution" policies expected to accelerate this transition [4] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) is recommended for capturing investment opportunities in the chemical sector, covering 50 leading chemical stocks and including both traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), which has seen a significant increase in net subscriptions and is expected to continue its upward trend [1][2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) experienced a price drop of 2% at the opening but quickly rebounded, currently showing a gain of 0.52%, indicating resilience in the market [1] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that by 2026, three main themes (green inflation, anti-involution, and interest rate cuts) will continue to drive commodity price fluctuations, with a positive outlook for basic metals like copper and aluminum due to emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 29, the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) has a total size of 794 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same index in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is facing a structural contradiction between supply contraction and demand expansion due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and industrial upgrading [1] Group 1: Domestic "Anti-Competition" Policies - The domestic "anti-competition" policy aims to actively reduce ineffective supply and upgrade the industry structure rather than merely shrinking capacity [1] - Since the initiation of supply-side reforms in 2015, policies have been implemented to reshape the industry ecology through a combination of prohibiting new capacity, clearing illegal operations, and enforcing environmental regulations [2] - The optimization of the supply structure for core products like copper and aluminum has reduced supply elasticity, laying a foundation for price stability [2] Group 2: Overseas Trade Barriers - Global trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have increased the difficulty of resource acquisition in the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - Policies in the U.S. and Europe have raised cross-border trade costs, with shipping costs for copper from Chile to China increasing by nearly 40% over five years, leading to a more than 15% increase in end-user prices [3] - Resource-rich countries are tightening supply, with Indonesia banning nickel ore exports and Mexico nationalizing lithium mines, contributing to a 25% increase in the global cobalt supply gap and a 37% monthly rise in cobalt prices [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory in Europe has significantly decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 14,475 tons by December 17, 2025, indicating tight supply conditions [3] - In contrast, COMEX copper inventory has risen from under 100,000 short tons to 456,900 short tons during the same period, highlighting a shift in global copper liquidity towards the U.S. [3] - Domestic copper inventory has also dropped to around 110,000 tons by the end of 2025, reflecting reduced supply elasticity under the "anti-competition" policy and increased difficulty in acquiring overseas resources [4] Group 4: Resilient Demand and Emerging Fields - The demand for non-ferrous metals remains robust, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors [5] - The traditional power sector benefits from ongoing investments in the power grid, maintaining stable demand for metals like copper and aluminum [5] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and renewable energy are driving significant demand growth for non-ferrous metals, while high-end fields like semiconductors and military applications are experiencing rigid demand increases [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The pricing logic for non-ferrous metals is being reshaped due to ongoing supply constraints, with prices expected to maintain solid support [5] - The non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) tracks the non-ferrous metals index and has reached a new high in scale at 4.399 billion yuan and 2.172 billion shares, reflecting strong investor interest [6] - The non-ferrous ETF has seen continuous net inflows totaling 1.385 billion yuan over the past 23 days, indicating a growing appetite for investment in this sector [6]

编者荐语： 摘要 上证指数收获八连阳，再叠加放量，跨年行情似乎正在蓄势待发； 2026 年关注反内卷和科技创新两大主线。 转载自申万宏源上海分公司，仅供参考。本周市场强势上涨，上证指数涨1.88%，从风格来看，科技成长表现优异，中小盘风格活跃。板块来看，海南板 块、有色金属及电池、商业航天、谷歌链等均涨幅较高，形成了范围较广的赚钱效应。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 市场回顾 本周市场强势上涨，上证指数涨 1.88% ，创业板涨 3.90% ，科创 50 涨幅 2.85% ，从风格来看，科技成长表现优异，中小盘风格活 跃。板块来看，海南板块、有色金属及电池、商业航天、谷歌链等均涨幅较高，形成了范围较广的赚钱效应，在此带动下，成交量也摆脱 了 1.8 万亿附近的震荡区间，周五全市场成交量突破 2.1 万亿。上证指数收获八连阳再叠加放量，跨年行情似乎正在蓄势待发。 行业复盘：有色金属为何那么强？ 从今年申万一级行业来看，有色金属涨幅超过 80% ，排名第一， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition in various industries, particularly highlighted by the central economic work conference in 2024 and its implications for 2025 [1] - A series of policies aimed at rationalizing the market have been implemented, ranging from legal revisions to industry self-regulation, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle "involution" competition [1] - In the photovoltaic industry, the price of the main continuous contract for polysilicon futures has increased significantly from slightly above 30,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 to over 58,000 yuan/ton currently, reflecting market adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses an unusual phenomenon in the international financial and commodity markets, specifically the panic-driven accumulation of copper inventories in the US, which now accounts for nearly half of the global copper stock [1][3] - The US's copper consumption is limited, and the current inventory levels indicate a strategic panic rather than normal business operations, with Europe also aggressively purchasing aluminum [3][6] - The appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD, projected to break the 7.0 mark by December 2025, is linked to the unusual copper inventory situation, suggesting a broader struggle for global pricing power [5][6] Group 2 - The article argues that the traditional understanding of currency fluctuations benefiting exports and imports is outdated, as the current situation reflects a strategic maneuver in a global power struggle [8][10] - The US has recognized the limitations of relying solely on financial power, especially when supply chain disruptions occur, prompting a shift in strategy towards "decoupling" and "reshoring" manufacturing [11][13] - The strengthening of the RMB is seen as a tactical response to pressure from the West, with China opting to appreciate its currency rather than devalue it, which could lead to a price increase for Chinese goods [15][17] Group 3 - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced as a response to the RMB appreciation, aiming to prevent destructive price competition among businesses and encouraging price increases to maintain profitability [19][21] - The strategy involves a "cleaning up" of the industry, where weaker companies relying on low prices will struggle to survive, allowing market share to concentrate among stronger firms [25][27] - The article emphasizes that only by ensuring the survival of leading companies can China transition from being a large manufacturing base to a strong one, capable of investing in advanced technologies [29][31] Group 4 - China's trade surplus has reached a historic high, indicating that despite tariffs and currency appreciation, Western countries continue to rely on Chinese goods, highlighting the latter's indispensable role in global supply chains [31][33] - The article posits that this situation reflects a strategic advantage for China, as it maintains control over essential supply chains in various sectors, including renewable energy and high-tech components [33][34] - The overarching narrative suggests that understanding these trends is crucial for navigating the investment landscape, as the future wealth logic is being shaped by these dynamics [36]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference in 2024 emphasized the need to comprehensively address "involutionary" competition, with a focus on guiding the market towards rationality through a series of policies implemented from the central to local levels [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - A series of policy measures, described as a "combination punch," have been rolled out to regulate "involutionary" competition, including legal revisions and industry self-discipline [1] - The focus on "anti-involution" will continue throughout 2025, indicating a sustained effort to reshape competitive practices in various industries [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - In the photovoltaic industry, the price of the main contract for polysilicon futures has seen a significant increase, rising from slightly above 30,000 yuan per ton in June 2025 to over 58,000 yuan per ton currently [1]

Group 1 - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while promoting effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [2] - The focus for the upcoming year includes maintaining domestic demand as the primary driver and building a strong domestic market [2] - China’s foreign trade continues to show resilience despite the ongoing tariff wars initiated by the United States, highlighting strong global demand for Chinese products [3] Group 2 - China is set to lead the formulation of 275 international standards by 2025, with 38 standards already published in the fourth quarter across various sectors including 5G and aerospace [4] - The country is actively proposing new standards in cutting-edge fields such as quantum technology and AI, with 60 new proposals submitted [4] - Increasing numbers of Chinese companies are expanding overseas by establishing R&D centers and production bases, which enhances their brand internationalization and injects vitality into global markets [5] Group 3 - Various industries are addressing "involution" through policies aimed at shifting competition from price-based to technology and service-based, thereby restoring a healthy industrial ecosystem [6] - The introduction of social security solutions for delivery riders by major platforms like JD and Meituan marks a significant step in improving labor rights and welfare for this workforce [7] - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, with specific allocations for consumer upgrades, is expected to significantly boost consumption [8] Group 4 - The year 2025 is designated as a key year for credit repair system development, with new regulations aimed at helping more businesses recover from credit issues [9] - The central economic work meeting's focus on stability provides a strong foundation for market confidence, while the push for a unified national market aims to eliminate local protectionism [11] - The ongoing tariff wars have not deterred China's foreign trade growth, showcasing the economy's robust resilience [11] Group 5 - The transition of Chinese enterprises towards establishing overseas operations reflects a deeper integration into local markets, moving beyond mere product exports [12] - The introduction of anti-involution policies is leading industries like automotive and solar to focus on innovation and value creation, as evidenced by the rebound in the solar supply chain and industrial profits [12] - The comprehensive upgrade of China's standard system is crucial for high-quality development, with the country transitioning from a follower to a leader in international standards [12]