Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline of approximately 80%-90% in shareholders' profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the absence of non-recurring foreign exchange gains and proactive investments to address geopolitical risks [1] Financial Performance - The expected shareholders' profit for the current reporting period is projected to be around 2.88 million HKD, down from approximately 28.8 million HKD in the same period last year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The decline in profit is attributed to the lack of a significant net foreign exchange gain of about 9.3 million HKD that positively impacted last year's profit [1] - The company is actively investing to accelerate business and technological development while expanding its overseas production layout in response to evolving geopolitical risks [1] - These forward-looking initiatives involve prudent restructuring of resources to support sustainable and long-term growth, laying a solid foundation for future development [1]

Group 1 - The planned US-Russia summit in Budapest has been canceled, indicating a rapid decline in hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which adds new uncertainty to global markets [1] - US Secretary of State Rubio had a tense call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, following a memorandum from Russia reiterating its conditions for resolving the conflict [1] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's stance and stated he does not want to "waste time" on a meeting with President Putin [1][2] Group 2 - The US Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are expected to exert economic pressure on Russia [2] - President Putin responded to the sanctions by stating they are unfriendly but will not significantly impact the Russian economy, suggesting that buyers will need time to find alternatives to Russian oil [2] - Following the sanctions announcement, concerns over supply led to a rise in WTI and Brent crude oil prices, highlighting geopolitical risks as a key factor affecting energy prices [2]

中美峰会终于圆满结束，这次会晤在韩国举行，持续了近一小时40分钟，气氛既务实又友好，世界各国也都松了一口气。而且，这是第一次看到特朗普表现 得如此客气。 10月30日中午，当地时间，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山进行了会晤，这是自2019年以来中美首次面对面的会谈。双方进行了一个多小时的交流，讨论了多个 重要议题，氛围友好且充满务实精神。 会后，特朗普对这次会晤给予了高度评价，并表示希望与中国保持良好的关系。特朗普面带微笑，看起来对这次见面的结果非常满意。这次会谈的重要性不 仅在于中美将继续推进贸易谈判，更在于双方能够达成此次会面，这标志着中美关系的实质性进展。 特朗普上台不到一年，在此次出访中与中方在第三国进行会晤，成功打破了中美关系的僵局。上一次中美会谈还是在2023年11月，距今已有两年多的时间。 在如今复杂的全球格局下，高层之间的沟通显得尤为重要，有助于加深双方的理解，避免误判风险，特别是在当前中美因贸易等问题产生摩擦的背景下，减 少冲突升级的可能性。 尽管美国一直将中国视为竞争对手，但如果继续与中国对抗，最终只会增加美国与世界其他国家的风险，甚至可能导致全球局势的紧张，市场也可能因此陷 入恐慌。这是特朗普 ...

Core Insights - Mining stocks have been identified as "invisible winners" during the Trump era, significantly outperforming global stock indices and IT indices, with a notable increase of 20% and 30% respectively by the end of 2024 [2][4] - Recent declines in gold and rare earth stocks indicate a shift in market sentiment, as mining stocks have dropped 6% from their mid-October highs [2][4] - The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and China has led to a reduction in investments in mining stocks, which were previously seen as a hedge against these risks [5][8] Group 1: Mining Stock Performance - The "Metals and Mining" sector saw a peak increase of 54% compared to the end of 2024, but has since reverted to September levels, losing momentum [4] - Mining stocks outperformed the aerospace and defense index, which rose by 55%, during a period of heightened geopolitical tensions [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The initial surge in mining stock investments was driven by concerns over geopolitical risks, particularly the US-China trade tensions, which prompted countries to compete for critical mineral resources [5] - The recent news of potential trade agreements between the US and China has contributed to a decline in mining stock prices, with MP Materials' stock dropping 30% from its mid-October peak [8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock prices of companies like Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials surged due to their strategic importance in the US's efforts to establish a non-China reliant rare earth supply chain [7] - Gold prices have also been influenced by geopolitical factors, with a notable rise in demand from emerging market central banks, leading to a peak of over $4000 per ounce [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of mining stocks remains uncertain, as speculative investments have receded, yet they still maintain higher levels compared to early 2025 [8] - Analysts suggest that the trend of buying mining stocks as a hedge against inflation may continue, given their historical resilience in inflationary environments [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - **Main Logic**: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - **Main Logic**: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - **View**: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - **Main Logic**: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - **View**: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - **View**: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The uptrend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current price - to - earnings ratio of gold is high, and investors should control positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [5]. - In the short term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise. It is recommended that investors maintain a bullish stance, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and hinted at a possible pause, London gold dropped $100 from around $4030 per ounce. But due to geopolitical events and lower - than - expected Sino - US summit results, it rebounded to around $3970 per ounce in the Asian session on the 30th. It is advisable to observe the support level of London gold at $3850 - $3900 per ounce [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 914.40, up 0.15%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,274, down 0.71%; Gold T + D closed at 907.85, down 0.50%; Silver T + D closed at 11,208, down 1.26% [5]. Medium - term Market - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce. The lower support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed cut interest rates to 3.75% - 4.00% with a 10 - 2 vote, with both hawkish and dovish objections [17]. - The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 2.25% and hinted at the end of the current rate - cut cycle [17]. - Russia tested the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, and Trump ordered the US War Department to restart nuclear weapons tests [17].

Core Insights - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever recorded [1] - The surge in gold prices, which increased over 50% this year, was driven by geopolitical risks and market dynamics, although a recent price correction occurred due to easing tensions between the US and China [1][3] - Investment demand for gold has significantly increased, accounting for 55% of total net demand in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global gold investment demand rose to 537 tons in Q3, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar, alongside a fear of missing out among investors [6] - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 634 tons for the first three quarters of the year [7][8] - The total global gold supply reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mine production up 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply up 6% to 344 tons [8][9] Regional Insights - In China, retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3, a 7% decline year-on-year, but the monetary value surged to 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% increase, marking the highest Q3 value on record [9][12] - Chinese gold ETF holdings saw a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3, with total holdings decreasing by 5.8 tons, although the asset management total increased by 11% to 168.8 billion yuan [12][14] - Despite high gold prices, consumer spending on gold jewelry in China reached 66.5 billion yuan in Q3, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating a willingness to purchase despite price pressures [12][13] Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption may see seasonal improvements in Q4, although this could be tempered by high gold prices and the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] - Investment demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts in China [15][17] - The recent regulatory changes allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to provide long-term support for gold investment demand in China [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the game between geopolitics and policies. Geopolitical conflicts provide bottom support for prices, but factors such as US shale oil production increase, reduced Indian procurement, and concerns about economic slowdown due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations suppress the upward space. If OPEC+ does not send a clear signal to cut production and US production increases, oil prices may remain in low - level volatility. If geopolitical risks escalate or inventory is depleted more than expected, it may trigger a staged rebound [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On October 29, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 458 yuan/barrel, down 1.78% from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at 60.18 and 63.86 dollars/barrel respectively, with a decline of over 2%. The SC - Brent spread widened from 0.9 to 1.3 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 4.39 to 4.98 dollars/barrel, indicating that SC crude oil was relatively resistant to decline compared to the external market. The Brent - WTI spread slightly widened from 3.49 to 3.68 dollars/barrel, reflecting an increase in Brent's discount to WTI [2] - SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels, indicating stable liquidity in the spot market. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 37,700 liters from the previous week to 10.0272 million liters, and the refinery operating rate increased from 86.2% to 91.2%, suggesting a recovery in refining demand in Asia [3] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt supply. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and oil storage facilities may suppress Russian refining capacity in the short term, but Russian crude oil exports are not currently affected by sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly, and the December loading plan in the North Sea is stable. The supply side shows regional differentiation. The acceleration of US shale oil development and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may increase medium - term supply pressure [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US distillate oil increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day, showing support from industrial and seasonal demand. The increase in Japan's refinery operating rate and the decrease in refined oil inventory indicate marginal improvement in Asian demand. However, Indian refiners such as MRPL have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks, which may lead to local trade flow adjustments. Germany's high dependence on Russian oil may exacerbate European energy supply uncertainty if it nationalizes Rosneft's business in Germany [4] - **Inventory side**: Japan's crude oil and refined oil inventories have decreased across the board, the US EIA commercial inventory has not shown significant accumulation, and China's SC warehouse receipts are stable. Currently, global inventory pressure is not prominent. However, attention should be paid to the potential impact of US shale oil production increase and Brazil's new production capacity release on future inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On October 29, SC was at 462.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.02% from the previous day; WTI was at 60.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.30%; Brent was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, up 0.69% [7] - **Spot prices**: Among them, the price of OPEC's basket of crude oils remained unchanged at 65.46 dollars/barrel; the price of Brent increased by 1.15 dollars/barrel to 65.62 dollars/barrel, with a rise of 1.78%; the price of Oman decreased by 0.94 dollars/barrel to 64.66 dollars/barrel, a decline of 1.43%, etc. [7] - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from 1.3 to 0.86 dollars/barrel, a decline of 33.85%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.98 to 4.8 dollars/barrel, a decline of 3.61%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from 3.68 to 3.94 dollars/barrel, a rise of 7.07% [7] - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose from 98.72 to 99.12, an increase of 0.41%; the S&P 500 index decreased slightly by 0.3 points to 6,890.59 points; the DAX index decreased by 154.42 points to 24,124.21 points, a decline of 0.64%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7] - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 415.966 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%; Cushing inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels to 22.565 million barrels, a rise of 6.28%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 409.097 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% [7] - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased from 88.6% to 86.6%, a decline of 2.26%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries decreased by 511,000 barrels/day to 1.5219 million barrels/day, a decline of 3.25% [7] 2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU decreased from 2,818 yuan/ton to 2,796 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%; LU decreased from 3,273 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%; NYMEX fuel oil increased from 238.58 cents/gallon to 242.28 cents/gallon, an increase of 1.55% [8] - **Spot prices**: Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, with only the Russian M100 CIF price decreasing from 445 dollars/ton to 441 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.90% [8] - **Paper prices**: The prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 2.61% and 2.56% respectively [8] - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread is not provided, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased from 455 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.10%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased from - 1,840 yuan/ton to - 1,867 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased from - 1,808 yuan/ton to - 1,830 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.22% [8] - **Inventory**: Some US distillate inventories decreased, such as the DOE distillate inventory decreasing by 3.362 million barrels to 112.189 million barrels, a decline of 2.91%, while the inventory of US distillates (>500ppm) increased by 49,000 barrels to 7.05 million barrels, an increase of 0.70% [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Supply - On October 29, India's HMEL company suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil. Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and a natural gas processing plant. Russian crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and are not currently affected by new sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly. The loading volume of North Sea crude oil in December is stable. China's Xinjiang Jimusar shale oil annual output has exceeded 1.5 million tons [9][10] 3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US distillate oil in the week ending October 24 increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day [10] 3.3 Inventory - On October 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's energy - chemical warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged. As of the week ending October 25, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the refinery operating rate increased [11] 3.4 Market Information - The UK may cancel the windfall profit tax on the oil and gas industry earlier than expected. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to be cut. Germany is discussing the nationalization of Rosneft's business in Germany. Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks. An Indian - Vitol joint venture is expected to be established in Singapore [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent front - month contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data charts [14][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were driven by a combination of risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but a hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Powell led to a rapid decline in gold prices after an initial surge [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged nearly 2% to reach $4030 per ounce during the Asian and European trading sessions, driven by risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations [1]. - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's hawkish remarks dampened bullish sentiment, causing gold prices to drop to a low of $3915 per ounce, closing around $3929, marking a daily decline of approximately 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders in South Korea is anticipated to influence gold prices; a lack of progress in trade negotiations may provide short-term support for gold, while positive developments could increase downward pressure [1]. - The attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset is closely tied to market interest rates; Powell's indication of maintaining high rates suggests increased opportunity costs for holding gold, as investors may miss out on more lucrative investments like bonds or bank deposits [1][2]. - In the short term, Powell's hawkish stance has diminished expectations for a December rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which may continue to pressure gold prices [2]. - However, in the medium to long term, factors such as global liquidity easing, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases may support a bullish trend for gold, indicating potential for further price increases [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's potential rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerating restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premium for precious metals. However, in the short term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3,800 - $3,850 per ounce [4]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. But currently, the price - to - earnings ratio of gold is too high, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trend**: Optimistic expectations for a trade agreement from the China - US summit and a strong global stock market weakened the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Overnight, London gold dropped to $3,886 per ounce, with a maximum adjustment of 11.3% since October 20th. Subsequently, expectations of a Fed rate cut drove bargain - hunting funds into the market, and London gold rebounded to around $4,000 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 913.02, up 1.07%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,354, up 2.60%; Gold T + D closed at 910.50, up 1.54%; Silver T + D closed at 11,321, up 2.96% [5]. - **Mid - term Trend**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process, and under the dual influence of Trump's pressure and management changes, the rate - cut amplitude may be larger. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate as the Japanese Prime Minister raises concerns about the return of Abenomics and the re - flooding of yen liquidity. The accelerating restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and high geopolitical risks continue to generate allocation and safe - haven demand for gold. The support levels for London gold are $4,130 and $3,975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US consumer confidence dropped to a six - month low of 94.6 in October due to concerns about short - term job opportunities, providing more reasons for the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday. The government shutdown was a major concern [17]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced that the company will build seven new supercomputers for the US Department of Energy and has received $500 billion in AI chip orders. NVIDIA has been excluded from the Chinese market and did not apply for US export licenses for the latest chips. It also announced a cooperation with Nokia to enter the AI communication market [17]. - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and mentioned many candidates to replace him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final candidates for the Fed Chairman include five people [17]. - The US FCC voted 3 - 0 to strengthen regulations on telecommunications equipment produced by Chinese companies considered a national security risk, banning new equipment containing parts from restricted - list companies from getting authorization and giving the FCC the power to ban the sale of authorized equipment in specific cases [18].