2025年6月17日，黄金市场出现一定波动。国际方面，现货黄金报3385.20美元/盎司，日内下跌1.38%；COMEX期金收报3403.96美元/盎司，跌幅1.41%。国 内上海黄金交易所黄金T+D报794.97元/克，上涨4.11元（+0.52%）。银行金条价格区间为803.5-812.25元/克，金店首饰价格在993-1038元/克之间，足金回收 价为780元/克。 总体而言，短期内黄金价格受地缘政治和经济数据影响，仍有波动可能。中长期若地缘政治风险不缓解、央行持续购金，黄金有望维持上行趋势，但也需关 注如全球经济形势改善等因素带来的下行风险。投资者需密切关注相关消息，合理配置资产。 近期黄金价格波动背后，受多种因素交织影响。 地缘政治风险仍是关键因素。以色列对伊朗核设施及军事目标发动突袭，胡塞武装对美国航母发动无人机袭击，俄乌冲突持续发酵，这些都刺激了避险情 绪。伊朗与美国虽有谈判消息传出，但伊朗国防部长称若谈判失败将袭击美军中东军事基地，美国撤离驻巴格达大使馆非必要工作人员及海湾地区军人家 属，进一步加剧了不确定性，推动资金流入黄金市场。 经济数据与货币政策同样影响显著。美国5月CPI数据低于预期， ...

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 17 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面继续反弹近 4%,上游工厂价格均有不同幅度的上调，市场情绪被连 日反弹的期货价格提涨，下游成交气氛也随之转好。本周上涨同样收到伊以冲突 的影响，国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨，基本面来看，供给端日产数 据维持在 20 万吨以上水平，目前中长期维持窄幅波动，对行情上方持续形成压 制，需求端，农需备肥好转，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启 动，预计下月将逐步展开；复合肥工厂方面，目前工厂开工负荷下降，且厂内成 品库存去化受阻，终端走货不畅，且秋季肥进度缓慢，对原料尿素端需求承接力 度疲弱。上周库存数据显示厂内库存继续增加，除需求疲弱外，出口订单企业主 动累库，待月底逐渐出口货物释放后，厂内库存压力将缓解。综合来看，尿素基 本面依然宽松，本次反弹主要系价格低位下贸易商拿货增加，且以伊冲突刺激能 化板块的走强，多属市场情绪主导而基本面尚未明显有好转，盘面反弹或难形成 持续性看涨行情，但后续农需即 ...

Group 1 - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has heightened market concerns regarding inflation and the timing of interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading at least one Wall Street firm to adopt a cautious outlook on the prospects for new stock market highs [1] - Morgan Stanley's trading department has abandoned its tactical bullish stance on the U.S. stock market due to rising risks and an increased likelihood of market pullbacks, despite the S&P 500 index rising on expectations that the conflict between Iran and Israel will not escalate into a full-scale war [1] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 21% since its April low, but signs indicate that the risk appetite driving this rebound is encountering resistance, with the index hovering around the 6000-point mark and the "fear index" VIX remaining below 20, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about geopolitical and other risks [1] Group 2 - Market strategists, including Matt Maley from Miller Tabak, share a similar view that even if the S&P 500 challenges historical highs, the downside risks currently outweigh the upside potential, especially given the index is only 1.8% away from its peak [3] - The U.S. stock market faces multiple headwinds amid escalating Middle Eastern conflicts, with economic growth slowing and earnings expectations being continuously revised downward, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties [3] - Concerns about overvaluation are becoming evident, as the S&P 500 index has stagnated over the past five trading days, showing little reaction to positive consumer and producer price index reports from the previous week [3] Group 3 - Investors are pricing in geopolitical benefits based on a valuation level exceeding 23 times the expected earnings for 2025, yet there is a lack of substantial evidence to support this pricing [4]

然而，特朗普在社交媒体上敦促伊朗签署核协议并要求德黑兰市民撤离的言论，再次为市场增添不确定性。分析师指出，未来以伊冲突的走向，无论是进一 步升级还是外交途径的突破，都将是金价短期波动的关键变量。 除了地缘政治因素，美联储的政策动向同样对金价构成重要影响。美联储为期两天的政策会议将于周三结束，市场普遍预期其将维持当前利率不变。美联储 官员近期多次表达对通胀的担忧，特别是特朗普政府可能推出的关税政策可能推高物价。Meger表示，当前经济面临从关税到地缘政治冲突的多重不确定 性，美联储倾向于维持高利率以应对潜在通胀风险。对于黄金而言，美联储维持高利率通常会对其价格构成压力，因为黄金作为无息资产，在高利率环境下 吸引力下降。然而，地缘政治风险和通胀预期的上升可能抵消部分利空影响，使金价在短期内维持震荡格局。 周二即将公布的零售销售和进口价格数据也将为市场提供更多线索。经济学家预计，5月进口价格将下降0.2%，而零售销售预计环比下降0.7%。这些数据将 影响美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出指数（PCE），进而为货币政策提供依据。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，市场对12月底前降息50个基点或更多的 可能性定价为65 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching a multi - year single - day maximum increase on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. The geopolitical risk soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of oil price increase remains high. The fundamental support for oil prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 10 - 16, 2025, WTI decreased by 1.21, BRENT decreased by 1.00, and DUBAI decreased by 0.59. SC increased by 11.70, and OMAN increased by 0.03. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an Iran - Israel agreement. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence, and US military intervention may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle - East situation [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 3644000 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 40300 barrels, and the SPR increased by 23700 barrels. US domestic crude production increased by 20000 barrels per day. The number of oil rigs decreased by 3 to 439, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. US EIA gasoline inventories increased by 1504000 barrels. In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, and both gasoline and diesel production increased. Refinery profits showed a rebound and recovery trend [4][5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The risk of oil price increase remains high due to the lack of an end - condition for Israel's attacks and Iran's counter - attacks. The fundamental support for oil prices is weak, but there are also some positive factors such as the start of domestic refinery operations and the expectation of reserve replenishment. It is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, which in turn has strengthened the A-share oil and gas sector [1][4] - On June 17, the energy equipment index led the market, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising by 22% and Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current oil price levels may not fully reflect the geopolitical risks, and if a supply crisis occurs, oil prices could rise further [4][5] Group 2 - Keli Co., Ltd. has seen a substantial increase in stock price, with a 72% rise over three trading days, indicating strong market interest despite risk warnings [2][3] - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with upstream companies benefiting from rising oil prices while some downstream companies are beginning to see price corrections [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the anticipation of increased demand during the peak season, which is expected to support oil prices despite concerns over OPEC+ production increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Global financial markets are cautious as investors weigh geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions, reflecting a delicate balance between risk appetite and defensive strategies [1] Market Overview - Wall Street stock index futures experienced a slight decline, while European markets remained flat. Asian markets opened higher but failed to sustain gains due to shifting focus on geopolitical issues and policy signals [2] - The US dollar strengthened slightly against major currencies, driven by increased safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and expectations surrounding upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions [2] Central Bank Focus - The upcoming meetings of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pivotal, with expectations that the BOJ will maintain its current interest rates while investors look for clues on potential policy tightening [3] - The Fed's meeting is anticipated to result in a decision to keep rates unchanged, bolstered by recent CPI and employment data. However, market attention is also on Chairman Powell's guidance regarding future rate cuts, which could begin as early as September [3] Geopolitical Risks - Tensions between the US and Iran escalated following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, prompting the US to order the evacuation of personnel from Tehran [4] - China has also urged its citizens to leave Israel, highlighting the potential for the situation to escalate further [5] - Despite the seriousness of the situation, market reactions have been relatively muted, as investors expect diplomatic efforts to prevent a full-scale conflict [6] USD/JPY Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently in a narrow consolidation range below the 145 level, with market participants awaiting clearer policy signals from central banks to determine the next direction [7] - Key drivers include potential signals from the BOJ regarding policy tightening, which could lead to a stronger yen, and any hawkish signals from the Fed that might support the dollar [9]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to recent international oil price fluctuations, marking the twelfth adjustment of the year and the fifth increase, indicating a trend of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" in fuel price adjustments for the year [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from June 17, 2025, gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - This translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.22 yuan per liter for 0 diesel, resulting in an additional cost of approximately 10 yuan for filling a standard 50L private car fuel tank [2]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the price adjustment cycle from June 3 to June 16, international oil prices experienced significant increases driven by rising geopolitical risks [3]. - Key factors include escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the EU's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, and declining U.S. crude oil inventories and rig counts, which are expected to support higher oil prices [3]. - The NDRC's price monitoring center anticipates that geopolitical risks will continue to be a primary factor supporting international oil prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations in the near term [3].

Group 1 - The establishment of the "China International Science and Technology Promotion Association Mother Fund Branch" aims to enhance the role of mother funds in China's capital market and promote healthy development in the investment industry, particularly in mother funds [1][40][42] - The Hubei Provincial Government Investment Guidance Fund is a policy-oriented mother fund established by the Hubei provincial government, which is now inviting applications for GP selection [3][4] - The "West (Chongqing) Science City High-tech Startup Investment Fund" is being launched to strengthen financial services for the real economy in Chongqing, focusing on sectors like smart connected vehicles and biomedicine [12][22] Group 2 - The latest "Global Private Capital Barometer" by Coller Capital indicates that 45% of LPs plan to increase allocations to private credit assets, reflecting a shift towards more defensive investment strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainties [21][22][23] - The Nanjing Innovation Investment Group successfully issued a technology innovation corporate bond worth 1 billion yuan, marking a historical low interest rate for similar bonds [24][26][27] - Guangdong Hengjian Investment Holding Co., Ltd. successfully issued a 5 billion USD three-year senior fixed-rate bond, achieving the lowest issuance yield for local state-owned enterprises since 2023 [30][31] Group 3 - The UAE delegation visited Futian Capital to explore international capital cooperation opportunities, focusing on technology innovation and industry development [32][34][35] - China Resources Henan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engaged in discussions with Yuzi Holdings Group to explore collaboration in the pharmaceutical sector [36][38][39]

Core Insights - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have led to surprising market reactions, with gold prices falling and U.S. Treasury yields rising, indicating a "risk-on" environment [1] - Historical data suggests that oil prices often anticipate conflicts and that significant increases in oil prices are required to trigger a recession in the West [2] - The S&P 500 index typically experiences a short-term decline following geopolitical shocks but tends to recover fully within a few weeks [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have decreased while U.S. Treasury yields have increased, reflecting a shift towards riskier assets [1] - The performance of stocks relative to long-term bonds has reached its strongest level since Trump's inauguration [1] - Oil prices have not surged despite the conflict, remaining significantly lower than their January peak [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that oil prices need to double to potentially cause a recession, with current prices far below this threshold [2] - The S&P 500 index has historically shown resilience, with a median recovery time of 16 trading days after geopolitical events [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Experts warn against complacency in the market, highlighting the potential for tail risks, including Iran's nuclear capabilities [5] - Probability analyses suggest varying outcomes from the conflict, with a notable risk of Iran achieving nuclear armament [5] Group 4: Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin has demonstrated characteristics of a safe-haven asset during the crisis, outperforming gold [6][8] - The perception of Bitcoin as a strategic asset is growing, influenced by regulatory developments and institutional interest [8]