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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For the US corn market, it has entered the export peak season with high phased supply pressure, and the global and US corn supply - demand remains relatively loose, suppressing international prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending - inventory forecast supports the price [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the acquisition of reserve warehouses has increased since December, supporting the market bottom. But high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and with rumors of wheat and reserve corn regulation, the supply has increased and prices have fallen [3]. - In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, new - season corn supply is abundant, industry operating rates are rising, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Although the inventory of starch enterprises has increased, holiday备货 may boost demand, and the rise of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2190 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1001351 lots, an increase of 12746 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 87155 lots, an increase of 9707 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 53277 lots, a decrease of 1163 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 3 - 5 monthly spread is - 47 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 104235 lots, a decrease of 27863 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 30748 lots, an increase of 2763 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 2500 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 440.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 4.75 cents; the total open interest is 1616139 contracts, an increase of 13001 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 120900 contracts, an increase of 77887 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2349.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 2121.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 50 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2570 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 159.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.83 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The average wheat price is 2516.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.58 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. - Sown areas: The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares (an increase of 0.55 million hectares), 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 31.5 tons, a decrease of 20.2 tons; at northern ports is 152 tons, a decrease of 11 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 294 tons, an increase of 18.6 tons; the starch enterprise inventory is 107.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 36 tons, an increase of 30 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 tons, an increase of 6.39 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 141.67 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 68.22%, a decrease of 2.06%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% [2]. - Processing profits: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), 74 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 11.7%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.45% [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 1.48%, a decrease of 7.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.17%, a decrease of 3.41% [2]. Industry News - China's corn and corn flour imports in November were 56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.5%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 185 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.1% [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on December 18, 2025, with palladium hitting the limit up with a 7% increase, while coking coal rose over 6% [2][6] - Other notable increases included platinum and coking coal, both up over 5%, and Shanghai silver rising over 3% [2][6] - In contrast, the shipping European line dropped over 3%, with polysilicon down more than 2%, and both soybean contracts falling over 1% [2][6] Group 2 - As of December 18, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises across the country reached 58.558 million heavy boxes, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 331,000 heavy boxes or 0.57% [4][8] - Year-on-year, the inventory growth rate expanded to 25.73%, with an average inventory duration of 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [4][8] - The North China market experienced a slowdown in overall shipments, with weak demand leading to slower inventory digestion, and procurement intentions remained weak, primarily focusing on low-price replenishment based on essential needs [4][8]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.56%，持仓 增仓 8547 手至 21.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 13 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 380 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 61595 元/吨，日内涨幅 4.36%，持仓增仓 5450 手至 15.3 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳 在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水扩至 9295 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏 拉的比较长，减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。 当前成交集中在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅自身缺乏涨势，短期受 多晶硅带涨。晶硅现货过剩和仓单短缺结构性矛盾下，日内厂家大幅提升 现货报价，与部分咨询网站延续持稳报价相悖。当前平台收储情绪发酵， 叠加仍未出现大量注册新仓单，近月多头情绪开始向全合约蔓延。期现逻 辑脱钩， ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2601 | 6515 | 6439 | 6515 | 6432 | -76 | -1.17 | 119319 | -16584 | | 塑料 2605 | 6525 | 6479 | 6543 | 6470 | -66 | -1.01 | 540127 | 29984 | | 塑料 2609 | 6558 | 6514 | 6568 | 6501 | -60 | -0.91 | 12595 | 2163 | | PP2601 ...

【期现】 截至12月17日收盘，焦煤期货震荡走势，夜盘反弹，以收盘价统计，焦煤近月2601合约-3.0(-0.31%)至 970.5，焦煤主力2605合约-5.5(-0.52%)至1062.0，1-5价差走强至-92.0。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓单 1230元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+168.0元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1135/吨(对标)，环比-4.0 元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+73.0元/吨。焦煤期货大幅下跌后反弹，山西煤焦现货延续跌势，蒙煤现货报价跟 随期货波动。 【供给】 截至12月11日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率83.45%，环比-1.05%，原煤产量842.82万吨/周，周环 比-10.58万吨/周，原煤库存198.18万吨，周环比+3.51万吨，精煤产量432.89万吨/周，周环比-5.29万吨/ 周，精煤库存126.52万吨，周环比-1.09万吨。 截至12月17日，钢联统计523矿样本煤矿产能利用率86.6%，周环比+1.3%，原煤日产192.7万吨/日，周 环比+2.9万吨/日，原煤库存478.9万吨，周环比+6.5万吨，精煤日产75.7吨/日，周环 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current core contradiction in the market is that although the continuous reduction of futures warehouse receipts and the firm external market quotations provide bottom support, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed substantially. The supply - side pressure still exists, with port inventories remaining at a high level despite a slight decline, and the demand side is weak, leading to poor sales of high - priced pulp. The market lacks a one - sided driver to break the current stalemate, with price increases constrained by weak demand and price decreases supported by cost and supply - side expectations. The price of softwood pulp may continue to be under pressure, while hardwood pulp is expected to remain relatively firm under the support of external market costs. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (05 Contract)**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract increased by 38 yuan/ton to 5,506 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 5,538 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 206,895 hands to 319,068 hands, the open interest decreased by 189 hands to 207,655 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3,566 tons to 187,098 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members increased by 5,369 hands to - 17,545 hands. [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract decreased by 38 to 94, the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) decreased by 38 to - 856, and the monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 6 to - 38. [3] - **Spot Market**: For softwood pulp, the domestic prices of Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, and the international price of Silver Star is 700 US dollars/ton. For hardwood pulp, the domestic prices of Goldfish, Star, and others range from 4,500 - 4,650 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star is 570 US dollars/ton. The domestic price of Chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic and international prices of Unbleached pulp (Venus) are 5,150 yuan/ton and 620 US dollars/ton respectively. [3] - **Trend Intensity**: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. [3] 3.2 Industry News - The futures market was dominated by capital sentiment yesterday, with the SP2605 contract closing flat in the day session, and the spot market prices remained stable. The softwood pulp spot price ranges from 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton, and the hardwood pulp ranges from 4,300 - 4,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in port inventories and the procurement sentiment in the base paper market. [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Core Views - The report analyzes the aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy markets, considering factors such as production, inventory, cost, and consumption. It concludes that aluminum and aluminum alloy prices may have limited downside in the long - term, while alumina faces supply - side pressure [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 21,845 yuan/ton and closed at 21,915 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous period [1][2] Market Analysis - Mozambique's 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be cut in March 2026 due to water and electricity shortages and high power costs. The Fed's December interest rate cut has been priced in, and there are few short - term macro - level positive factors. The social inventory is not smoothly decreasing, and the spot discount is difficult to repair. However, the low inventory level limits the downside of aluminum prices [6] Alumina Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,539 yuan/ton and closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.95%). The Shanxi price was 2,755 yuan/ton, the Shandong price was 2,685 yuan/ton, etc. The overseas East Australia FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. The domestic warehouse receipt pressure is not relieved, with over 110,000 tons of January - due warehouse receipts [2] Market Analysis - Some mines in Guinea are resuming production, increasing the price pressure on the ore end. The supply side is unlikely to have large - scale production cuts in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern cannot be reversed. The electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and the winter storage replenishment expectation is low [7] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - profit - On December 17, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [3][4][5] Market Analysis - The report has a cautiously bullish view on the aluminum alloy market, but no detailed analysis of market factors is provided in the given text [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand sides of the polyolefin market are under continuous pressure, and the price rebound lacks momentum. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weakening, leading to large inventory pressure and limited short - term improvement. For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6479 yuan/ton (-64), and the PP main contract is 6254 yuan/ton (-2). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes. [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 84.1% (+0.1%), and PP开工率 is 78.3% (+0.7%). [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 358.7 yuan/ton (+127.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 261.3 yuan/ton (+127.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 714.1 yuan/ton (+60.0). [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 100.0 yuan/ton (+5.1), PP import profit is - 268.1 yuan/ton (+4.9), and PP export profit is - 12.1 US dollars/ton (-0.6). [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film开工率 decline, while PP downstream BOPP film开工率 increases slightly and plastic weaving开工率 remains unchanged. [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is expected to increase due to low maintenance and new device production. Demand is weakening as downstream开工率 drops. Inventory pressure is large, and cost support is weakening. [2] - **PP**: Supply is expected to remain high with less maintenance. Demand is limited, and inventory levels are high. Cost support is weakening, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high. [4]