Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic natural rubber price for full latex increased to 15,850 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai mixed rubber price reached 15,150 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons, or 1.9% [4][21] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 835,000 tons, up by 2.5% [4][21] - The market is expected to see high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices in the short term due to seasonal factors and inventory dynamics [5][22] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 90.9%, while Asia's load also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2% [6][23] - The demand for PX is expected to rise as downstream PTA facilities restart, leading to a narrowing of PX inventory accumulation in January [6][23] - Despite geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, the polyester industry remains supported, although seasonal demand weakness is anticipated [6][23] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 0.1 percentage points to 78.2%, remaining at a historically low level [7][24] - New order sentiment is weak, with a decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [7][24] - PTA inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure in January due to seasonal demand decline and maintenance schedules [7][24][25] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.2%, with significant room for further improvement [10][27] - Despite rising shipping costs and potential import reductions, domestic supply remains ample, leading to significant supply pressure [10][27] - January is expected to see inventory accumulation, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure in the first half of the year [10][27] Group 5: PF Market - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [11][28] - Demand from downstream yarn enterprises is cautious as they prepare for the holiday season, leading to a decline in purchasing [11][28] - Short-term demand weakness is expected to continue to suppress prices, although cost support remains [11][28] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.8%, but remains at historically low levels [11][28] - Demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited production recovery expected in January [11][28] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices [12][29] - Recent production increased by 57,000 tons to 754,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [12][29] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels showing mixed trends [12][29] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][30] - Recent production decreased, while downstream purchasing activity has improved, leading to a reduction in inventory [13][30] - Seasonal demand weakness is anticipated, with short-term price fluctuations expected [13][30] Group 9: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda prices have seen slight declines, with high supply levels maintained [14][31] - Downstream demand remains weak, impacting market prices [14][31] Group 10: PVC Market - PVC futures declined by 10 CNY/ton to 4,878 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [15][32] - The supply side remains in an upward trend, while demand is expected to improve only slightly [15][32] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to remain volatile, with a focus on price fluctuations [15][32]

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 150 million yuan for 10 consecutive days, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and investor interest in the oil and gas sector [1] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with President Trump canceling all talks with Iranian officials and advising allies to withdraw from the country, leading to significant volatility in the global energy market [1] - Iran is facing its largest anti-government protests in years, raising concerns about potential disruptions to its oil exports, although there has not yet been a drastic decline in export volumes [1] Group 2 - The security risks in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea corridors have increased, highlighted by drone attacks on four oil tankers managed by Greece while en route to the CPC terminal [1] - The CPC pipeline is a crucial source of "light low-sulfur crude oil" in the global market, and any sustained disruption at the CPC terminal could force refineries to pay high premiums for alternative supplies from the Mediterranean or Europe [1] - The current market conditions may suppress concerns about long-term oversupply of crude oil, making the oil ETF (561360) an attractive option for investors [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded companies involved in the entire oil and gas value chain, from exploration and extraction to refining and sales [2] - The index reflects the overall performance and market trends of listed companies in the oil and gas sector, covering upstream resource development, midstream transportation and storage, and downstream product distribution [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as policy changes, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, showing different trends and characteristics in different sectors. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: There are differences between bulls and bears, and the market is volatile. Short - term market is affected by policy and may fluctuate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Suggestions include short - term grid operations, IM\IC 2606 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buy option strategies [18][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The performance is differentiated, and the trend is unclear. Short - term market sentiment is repaired, but the odds of going long are limited. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions in batches, and consider shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is obvious, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to have a bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [26][28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and domestic sugar can be considered for low - buying and high - selling in the range [29][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations and Indonesia's policy, the oils market is falling. It is recommended to have a short - term oscillating view on oils and try shorting palm oil at high prices [34][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to have a bullish view on outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, and short - term long on 07 corn after correction [38][40][41]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, but the market is still strong. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell wide - straddle options [41][42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. - **Eggs**: Demand improves, and prices are stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the far - month 5 - contract at low prices [46][49]. - **Apples**: Cold - storage inventory is low, and prices are firm. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 5 - month contract long positions and short the 10 - month contract at high prices [50][52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to go long on Zheng cotton at low prices [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel is turning to inventory accumulation, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish view, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [61][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish at high prices [64][65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish view and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [68][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff ruling fails again, and the previous trading logic continues. It is recommended to hold long positions near the 5 - day moving average and use a collar option bullish strategy [71][74][75]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical tensions lead to high - level oscillations. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and be cautious about going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced [75][77][78]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the bullish trend remains. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [80][82][83]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals increases price fluctuations. The price is under pressure due to factors such as potential inventory increase and cost decline [84][86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is oscillating at a high level, and it is necessary to be vigilant about market sentiment cooling. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the oscillation [87][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to continue to oscillate at a high level with the sector [92][93]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the impact of capital. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors hold short positions with strict position control [94][96][97]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to capital sentiment. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [98][100][101]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian remarks stimulate price increases. It is recommended to have a bullish view at low prices [102][103][104]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long after correction and stabilization [104][105][107]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the range. The medium - term demand is weakening [108]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to factors such as policy and market sentiment [109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The position is decreasing, and there may be a correction. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [111][115][116]. - **Tin**: Bulls are enthusiastic, and prices reach a new high. It is recommended to be cautious about high - level fluctuations [116][118][119]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The second - stage negotiation of the Palestine - Israel issue is in progress, and prices will continue to decline in the second half of January. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct a 6 - 10 positive arbitrage [121][122]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Continue to pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a wide - range oscillating view and pay attention to the Iran event [123][124][125]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil cost fluctuations increase, and supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and hold the BU4 - 6 positive arbitrage [125][128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase fluctuations. It is recommended to be vigilant about risks and hold the FU59 positive arbitrage [130][132]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH continues to decline. It is recommended to add short positions on TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell long - term rolling out - of - the - money call options [133][136]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view [137][138][139]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and cost support strengthens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and conduct a 3,5 - contract positive arbitrage [140][141][142]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and styrene short - stops boost the rise. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term and conduct an arbitrage of short pure benzene and long styrene [142][143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell call options [144][146]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [146][147][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: Prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [148][149][150]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to have a bullish view [151][153]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions on L and PP 2605 contracts and sell the PP2605 put 6100 contract [154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices are weakening. It is recommended to have a bearish view [156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: This week, it shows a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to short at an appropriate time and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month at a high level [158][161]. - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to wait and short at an appropriate time and conduct an arbitrage of short glass and long soda ash [162][163][164]. - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [164][165][166]. - **Logs**: The spot rebounds slightly. It is recommended to go long in small quantities and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [167][168][169]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The rebound of cultural paper is weak. It is recommended to wait and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 options [170][171]. - **Natural Rubber**: Global automobile sales slow down slightly. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU 05 contract and hold long positions on the NR 03 contract [172][175]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Crude oil freight increases marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 03 contract [176][178].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks from the Iran situation continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical sector should be viewed with a volatile mindset [2][3][4]. - The chemical sector is currently boosted by the strong trends of coal and oil prices, with limited room for significant adjustments. Even over - valued varieties are likely to trade in a volatile range. Spring maintenance by refineries and chemical enterprises will limit the supply increase, and the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first half of the year still supports futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors are continuously disturbing, and attention should be paid to risks from Iran. The supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate, so it is expected to trade in a volatile range [4][9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in an over - valued range and trading in a volatile manner. In the long - term, the valuation is expected to decline [4][10][11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation between the US and Iran has escalated, leading to a sharp rise in high - sulfur fuel oil. In the long - term, the expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on prices, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [4][10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is rising in a volatile manner. Although it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation means it will follow crude oil price movements [4][12]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of inventory reduction in coastal areas has been realized, but there is still uncertainty in the overseas macro - environment. Methanol is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [4][28]. - **Urea**: Regional top - dressing demand provides support, and urea is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The market may have a narrow upward exploration in the short - term [4][29][30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There are again differences between bulls and bears, and the price lacks directional guidance. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with limited upside due to long - term inventory accumulation pressure [4][22][23]. - **PX**: There is an expectation of a valuation correction. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 7000 - 7100 [4][14]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers, but cost support remains. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 5000 - 5100 [4][15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Demand lacks sustainability, and it is trading in a range. The price will follow the movement of upstream products, with processing fees under some pressure [4][24][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: Supply continues to be compressed, and there is an expectation of processing fee repair. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and the long PR03 short TA03 position can be held [4][26][27]. - **Propylene**: Supply has tightened, and PL is expected to have a cautious rebound [4]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance operations has slightly decreased, and the upside space for PP is limited [4][34]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by raw materials and the macro - environment, plastic is slightly strengthening [4][33]. - **Styrene**: Tight supply - demand and a good commodity market atmosphere have led to a recent strong and volatile trend. It is expected to remain strong and volatile in the short - term if there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil [4][20][21]. - **PVC**: Short - term "rush - to - export" activities support the price. In the long - term, the market is under pressure due to concerns about the sustainability of export orders and high inventory [4][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: With a low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is trading weakly [4][36][37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data shows the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.73 with a change of 0.01 [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties is provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 68 with a change of - 8, and the number of warehouse receipts is 46450 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads are presented, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 363 with a change of - 199 [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data was provided in the content, but it involves monitoring the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on January 14, 2026 [282]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.87%, a 5 - day increase of 5.90%, a 1 - month increase of 3.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.87% [283].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to adopt a bullish trading approach but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4]. - The mid - term trend in 2026 will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but the large influx of investment funds will also lead to significant price volatility. Investors can consider cross - variety arbitrage, and long hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The easing of inflation pressure in the US in December 2025 provides a basis for the Fed's loose monetary policy in 2026. The expectation of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks drive the precious metals sector to perform strongly. London gold approaches the $4650/ounce mark, and London silver briefly breaks through the $91/ounce mark. The adjustment risk in precious metals has been fully released, and the market will continue to be strong [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, daily change rate, open interest, and change in open interest of domestic precious metals such as Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are presented [5]. - **Mid - term Market**: Geopolitical risks may rise significantly in 2026. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policy of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of precious metals. Silver and platinum will perform better than gold, and their industrial and physical demands are expected to increase [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Global central bank presidents and Wall Street bank CEOs support Fed Chairman Powell, highlighting the importance of the Fed and central bank independence [16]. - The Trump administration allows NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, but China restricts the purchase of H200 chips [16]. - US consumer prices rose in December 2025, strengthening the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month [17]. - Venezuela's state - owned oil company reopens some oil wells and resumes crude oil exports, which may be part of a 50 - million - barrel supply agreement with the US [17].

受国际地缘冲突影响，金价持续走强，油气板块表现活跃。美国总统特朗普宣布取消与伊朗官员的所有 会谈并建议盟友撤离该国，美伊地缘政治紧张局势骤然升级，引发全球能源市场剧烈波动。作为 OPEC+的核心成员，伊朗正面临多年来最大规模的反政府抗议。尽管伊朗的出口总量尚未出现断崖式 下跌，但市场担忧地缘对后续出口量的扰动。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关 规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金 有风险，投资需谨慎。 此外黑海与里海走廊的安全风险也显著上升，四艘由希腊管理的油轮在前往里海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, offering trading strategies and outlooks for different futures products based on market conditions, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [16][19][25] Summary by Directory Macro News - The margin ratio for margin trading is raised from 80% to 100%, and the policy of tax refund for home - swapping is extended to the end of 2027. Several top - valued tech firms are preparing for IPOs. China's 2025 foreign trade grows 3.8% year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation. Three departments regulate the new energy vehicle industry. The US imposes a 25% tariff on some semiconductor imports. Tesla changes its FSD business model. The Fed's economic situation improves, and there are different views on interest rate adjustments among Fed officials. US economic data shows mixed trends, and OPEC maintains its 2026 oil demand growth forecast and releases the 2027 forecast [9][10][11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - On January 14, A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%. The increase in margin ratio signals a market cool - down. If the index fails to form a counter - enveloping bearish line with further volume, it may enter an adjustment phase. Short - term trading should focus on volume and price, and consider taking profits [16] Treasury Bond Futures - The money market has become looser. The adjustment of margin ratio and the 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation are announced. With the expected decline in interest - rate cut and the upward shift of the capital center, the strategy of flattening the yield curve is maintained [17] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Policy - wise, there are no new demand - side policies, and supply - side policy interference is unlikely. Fundamentally, steel demand shows off - season pressure, but short - term contradictions are not significant. Long - term downstream demand for steel is weak, except for some consumption of coil products. Iron ore supply shows a port inventory increase, and demand is supported. Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal futures prices rebound due to supply disturbances. In the short term, double - coking prices may fluctuate upwards, but the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand and the limited profit of the steel industry may restrict the upward space [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate with the market atmosphere. Supply is at a high level, and new capacity progress is awaited. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass prices are recommended to be held by bulls, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of January 12, domestic zinc inventories decrease. Zinc prices are supported by external markets and inventory trends. However, downstream procurement is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [25][26] Lead - As of January 12, lead inventories increase. Before delivery, inventories are expected to rise further. After delivery, supply pressure will increase, and price upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28] Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of battery export rush, demand is better than expected. In the short term, it will operate in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations [29] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, lacking upward drivers. Polysilicon will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the rectification measures on January 20. For industrial silicon, downstream demand has short - term support, but long - term supply pressure remains. For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" policy is being corrected, and the market is in a vacuum period of policy and industry game [30][31] Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is in a short - term consolidation state due to the contradiction between short - term supply surplus and long - term supply contraction expectations, as well as pre - holiday restocking and declining production. Short - term trading is recommended [32][33] Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth, with prices fluctuating. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [34][35] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is high. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. However, if the price increase is due to supply reduction, the situation needs to be re - evaluated [37] Apples - The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products will remain firm. The market may turn stronger during the Spring Festival [38][39] Corn - The corn market has large differences. Spot prices are stable to strong, and futures prices are weak. The price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the release of grain sales in March [40] Red Dates - The red date market is in a consumption peak season, but the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm and buyer sentiment [41] Pigs - In the first half of January, pig consumption lacks a significant boost. From the middle of the month, the supply may increase, and the spot price is likely to decline. Futures contracts should be shorted at high prices [42] Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions in Iran continue to heat up, and the market is worried about supply disruptions. Although there is a supply surplus, geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term [44] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices, with marginal improvement in supply and demand. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the US and Russia [46] Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. An oscillatory approach is recommended [47] Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. There is support from overseas raw material prices, and attention should be paid to short - term buying opportunities on dips [47] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices rise due to cost support. Caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see if there is no position [48][49] Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol is improving. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the long - term outlook is positive. Long - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [50] Caustic Soda - The adjustment of export tax - refund policy has a negative impact on caustic soda futures. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are under pressure [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate more due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is cost - driven in the short term. Attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, LPG prices rise. Supported by high costs and demand, it has some rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [54] Urea - Urea futures drive the spot market. Spot prices are stable to rising, and futures prices are rising unilaterally. Attention is paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [55]

US EQUITIES - trading the consensus 美股 - 交易市场共识 Market sentiment has kicked off 2026 on a very strong note. Our Risk Appetite Indicator has accelerated to ~0.9 – a 96 th percentile reading historically and the highest level since early 2025. At these levels, small pullbacks tend to become more frequent and outsized equity returns are rarer. But elevated risk appetite on its own is not a sell signal – when the macro backdrop is supportive, optimistic regimes can persist for longer than most expect. 市场情绪在 202 ...

近期，国际油价持续上涨。不过，油价上涨带来的成本支撑无法同步传导至所有下游品种，纯苯、苯乙 烯等下游品种价格走势分化，而纯苯—苯乙烯（BZ—SM）价差的博弈也成为市场关注的焦点。 紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林认为，纯苯当前走强是多重驱动叠加的结果。一是BZ—SM价差头寸的止盈 动作。作为衡量二者相对强弱的关键指标，BZ—SM价差自去年12月中旬以来持续上涨，截至1月13日 已从1200元/吨涨至1715元/吨。套利资金获利了结后，纯苯价格表现优于苯乙烯。二是原油价格上涨直 接传导至纯苯，溢价幅度与中东局势紧密挂钩。三是近期两套苯乙烯装置将复产，作为纯苯核心下游， 其产能利用率回升将带动纯苯需求增加，形成需求预期支撑。 不过，汤剑林提醒，纯苯市场基本面偏弱的格局尚未改善。纯苯供应稳定，需求疲软，港口库存持续累 积并突破历史高点，成为制约其价格持续上涨的隐形压力。 与纯苯不同，苯乙烯基本面更为扎实，这也是BZ—SM价差持续走扩的核心原因。 据汤剑林介绍，苯乙烯利多近期集中释放：出口订单落地、供应端多套装置仍在检修、库存持续下降。 不过，基本面好转的同时，苯乙烯下游"三S"行业（ABS、PS、EPS）受高价格影响，或出 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in the US stock market is attributed to a combination of internal and external pressures, indicating a complex underlying situation rather than just a technical adjustment [2][3] - The bank earnings season has negatively impacted market sentiment, with Wells Fargo reporting lower-than-expected revenue, leading to a 4.6% drop in its stock price. Even companies like Bank of America and Citigroup, which exceeded expectations, saw their stock prices decline, suggesting that the market's expectations have become exceedingly high [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions surrounding Iran and Greenland, have intensified, contributing to market volatility. Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also spread from the gold market to risk assets, indicating deeper investor anxieties [3] Group 2 - Investors are advised to reassess their holdings in the US stock market, particularly in the technology and banking sectors, focusing on companies that can sustain growth through economic cycles and paying attention to credit costs and future guidance in bank earnings reports [4] - Geopolitical risks and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence should be viewed as long-term background factors rather than short-term trading signals, as they may increase volatility but are unlikely to dictate market direction [4] - Maintaining a certain level of cash and investment discipline is recommended during periods of heightened market volatility, allowing investors to manage risks and seize opportunities when they arise [4]