Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: October 30, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. The US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers, and India's Reliance Group will stop importing Russian oil under long - term agreements, which may lead to a near - zero supply of Russian oil to India in the short term. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market in the short term [6]. - Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US's controversial military strike on Venezuelan transportation. Fundamentally, as of October 17, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, US refinery operations rebounded, and the US Energy Department announced a tender to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, showing a warming in fundamentals [6]. - Due to concerns about India's diesel exports, the crack spreads of European and American diesel strengthened, but the inventory of Singapore diesel increased by more than 5 million barrels, reaching a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel crack spread. In the short term, oil prices may rebound and fluctuate more, and in the medium term, the upside space of oil prices is limited due to Kuwait's statement that OPEC is ready to increase production. The oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is advised when chasing high prices [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From October 23 to October 29, WTI crude oil prices changed from $61.79 to $60.48, with a change of $0.33; Brent crude oil prices changed from $65.99 to $64.92, with a change of $0.52; Dubai crude oil prices changed from $65.24 to $64.86, with a change of - $0.08 [3]. - SC crude oil prices changed from 459.70 to 462.60, with a change of - 0.10; Oman crude oil prices changed from $68.44 to $64.95, with a change of $0.17 [3]. - Japanese naphtha CFR prices changed from $573.13 to an unspecified value, with a change in the differential to Brent of - $1.32; Singapore fuel oil 380 CST changed from a - $0.73 discount to a - $1.8 discount to Brent, with a change of - $0.65 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and their 34 subsidiaries. This is in line with the sanctions previously announced by the UK and the EU [3]. - The US Treasury issued a license for Rosneft's German subsidiaries. Russia's current crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and have not been affected by the new sanctions, but India's HMEL company has suspended further purchases of Russian crude [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - The comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased, with profits oscillating downward [6]. 3.4 Weekly Viewpoints - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound and have increased volatility risks [6]. - Medium - term: The reduction in Russian oil supply will be affected by multiple factors and will impact the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026 (a range of $5 - 10). The upside space of oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential production increase, and the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues [6]. 3.5 EIA Data - For the week ending October 24: US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 867,000 barrels per day to 5.051 million barrels per day [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the same period last year [18].

Summary of the Conference Call for 招商南油 Industry Overview - The international refined oil tanker market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation due to multiple factors, including geopolitical risks and regulatory changes, which have increased market volatility [2][5] - The U.S. 301 investigation is gradually causing Chinese shipping companies to exit the U.S. market [2] - Despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in refined oil shipping trade volume in the first half of the year, the MR market showed resilience in Q3, driven by strong gasoline demand in Asia-Pacific and the U.S. West Coast, along with a significant increase in China's export volume [2][5] - The VLCC and refined oil tanker markets have seen an upward trend since August, benefiting from increased refinery exports and delayed maintenance in Middle Eastern refineries [2][6] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 招商南油 reported revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 947 million yuan, down 42.87% year-on-year [3] - Q3 revenue was 1.497 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 13.47% to 377 million yuan [3] - The gross profit from crude oil transportation increased by 6.9% to 513 million yuan, while the gross profit from refined oil transportation decreased by 48.5% to 575 million yuan [3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The refined oil shipping market is expected to maintain a steady performance in Q4, supported by seasonal demand in the U.S. and increased exports from China [8] - The VLCC market's soaring freight rates are expected to drive up the refined oil tanker market [9] - For 2026, a slight growth in refined oil trade demand is anticipated, but increased new capacity and aging fleets may lead to higher scrapping rates [11] Operational Efficiency - The company's refined oil team operates at a significantly higher efficiency than market levels, outperforming regional indices and achieving better operational results [4][12] - The company has a fleet of 303 vessels and has successfully capitalized on market opportunities through scaled operations [12] Shareholder Returns and Financial Strategy - The company plans to utilize capital reserves to offset previous losses, aiming for improved shareholder returns through share buybacks and future profit distributions [13][14] - A total of 250 million yuan has been allocated for share repurchases, with plans to increase this to 400 million yuan [13] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns and maintaining stable profitability and cash flow [15] Recommendations for Investors - Investors are encouraged to monitor the company's operational performance and improvements in shareholder returns, as it is positioned as a key player in the shipping sector [17]

Core Insights - The report highlights the complexity of the external economic landscape in 2026, focusing on three main issues: persistent geopolitical conflicts, political conservatism in major economies leading to trade frictions, and the complexities of monetary policy [3][4]. Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, present structural pressures that may lead to increased volatility in the global economy [3]. - Key geopolitical risk points include the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, which contribute to a non-linear economic outlook [3]. Political Conservatism and Trade Frictions - The rise of conservative governments in major economies like the U.S. and Japan is shifting policies towards economic security and nationalism, resulting in ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3][4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deepening, moving towards a "China + N" model, which may impact trade dynamics significantly [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2025 and 1-2 cuts in 2026, which may lower financing costs but also face constraints from structural inflation driven by geopolitical and trade issues [3][4]. Global Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3%, with emerging markets being the primary growth drivers due to "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" investments [4]. - Developed economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with the U.S. economy supported by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while Japan and the EU maintain stable growth [4]. Impact on China - Specific external variables, particularly U.S. policies, are expected to impact China's trade and technology sectors, with tariffs likely to remain at a normalized level of around 30% [4][5]. - China's exports may face disruptions from both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with potential impacts on overall export scale estimated at 3.0% under moderate scenarios and up to 10.6% in extreme cases [5]. Opportunities and Challenges for China - External pressures may accelerate China's progress towards technological self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [5]. - However, challenges include normalized tariffs, increased trade barriers, and the risk of de-Chinaization in global supply chains, alongside the pressures of technological restrictions [5].

Core Insights - WuXi AppTec, a leading Chinese biopharmaceutical outsourcing (CXO) company, reported strong financial results for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 32.857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.61%, and a net profit of 12.076 billion yuan, up 84.84% [1][4] - The company announced a significant asset divestiture, selling its clinical research subsidiaries for 2.8 billion yuan, which is interpreted as a strategic move to focus on core business areas amid a challenging international environment [1][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 32.857 billion yuan, a growth of 18.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.076 billion yuan, reflecting an 84.84% increase [1][4] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 12.057 billion yuan, up 15.26%, and a net profit of 3.515 billion yuan, which is a 53.27% increase [1] - The cash flow from operations reached 10.87 billion yuan, marking a 35% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The chemical business segment emerged as the largest contributor to revenue, generating 25.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.28% [3] - The TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) showed exceptional performance, with revenue reaching 7.84 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 121.1% [3] - The small molecule CRDMO business demonstrated a "funnel effect," successfully synthesizing and delivering over 430,000 new compounds in the past 12 months [4] Strategic Moves - The divestiture of the clinical research subsidiaries is seen as a strategic choice to optimize asset structure and focus on high-margin, high-growth areas like the chemical and TIDES businesses [5][7] - The sale of these subsidiaries, which contributed only about 3.5% of total revenue, allows the company to concentrate resources on its core CRDMO business [5][7] - The transaction includes a performance-based payment structure, allowing the company to benefit from future growth of the divested assets [7] Market Context - The backdrop of the company's performance includes ongoing geopolitical tensions and the looming threat of the U.S. Biodefense Act, which could significantly impact Chinese biotech firms [8][10] - Despite these challenges, revenue from U.S. clients grew by 31.9%, with North America accounting for 64% of total revenue [10][11] - The company is diversifying its market presence, with European client revenue increasing by 13.5% and stable growth in China and other markets [11][12] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the asset divestiture, the company's stock prices rose, reflecting positive market sentiment towards its strong quarterly performance and strategic adjustments [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to mixed market signals, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East providing support for gold while trade environment improvements are suppressing its safe-haven appeal [1][3] - Gold prices rose to around $3962 per ounce during Asian trading on October 29, following a significant drop to a three-week low of $3886 per ounce the previous day [1] - The market is currently influenced by a combination of factors, including the positive signals from US-China trade negotiations and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which are creating a complex environment for gold prices [3] Group 2 - Short-term outlook suggests that gold may face downward pressure, with the $3886 low not necessarily being the end of the current adjustment phase [3] - In the medium to long term, if the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting process or if geopolitical conflicts escalate, gold prices may return to an upward trend [3] - The $4000 level is identified as a significant resistance point for gold prices, which investors should monitor closely [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, geopolitical risks remain, particularly the tension in US-Venezuela relations and the fragility of the ceasefire [1] - Short-term oil prices may receive support due to increased winter heating demand and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] Group 2 - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of related companies [1] - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's CPI data is lower than expected, opening up room for interest rate cuts, which is likely to lead to strong performance in metal prices [1] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, global geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand is expected to keep precious metal prices high [1] - In China, the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to boost policy and infrastructure demand, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to remain accommodative, improving macro sentiment and supporting base metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - In the aluminum industry, overseas supply disruptions (such as Century Aluminum's production halt) combined with the gradual realization of peak demand are expected to enhance aluminum price elasticity due to strong consumption resilience [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in nonferrous metal mining, smelting, and processing, covering sectors like copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The index constituents have a large average market capitalization and exhibit strong cyclical characteristics, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion for the first time during intraday trading, although it could not maintain this level by the close of trading [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Tuesday, Apple's stock price increased by 0.07%, leading to an intraday market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1]. - Microsoft also saw a stock price increase of approximately 2%, allowing it to surpass the $4 trillion market cap and close above this threshold [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings season, with the performance of both Apple and Microsoft being critical indicators for market growth expectations [3]. - Microsoft is set to release its earnings report on Wednesday, while Apple will follow on Thursday [3]. Group 3: iPhone Sales and Analyst Confidence - Strong iPhone sales have significantly contributed to Apple's market cap surge, with a 25% increase in stock price over the past three months, driven by positive sales trends for the newly released iPhone 17 series [4]. - Analyst sentiment is optimistic, with JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raising Apple's target price to $290 per share, indicating a more favorable outlook entering the earnings season [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risk Management - Apple has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks by shifting a significant portion of its supply chain for the U.S. market to India and Vietnam, thereby reducing exposure to potential tariffs [5]. - The company has maintained a positive relationship with the U.S. government regarding domestic manufacturing, which has improved its position in a complex international trade environment [5]. - Chatterjee noted that Apple's accelerated domestic investment and rapid transition of U.S.-market production to India and Vietnam have enhanced its standing in the tariff landscape [5].

Core Insights - Structural problems such as high debt levels, deficits, and geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges for the industry [1] Group 1 - High debt levels are a significant concern for companies, impacting their financial stability and growth potential [1] - Persistent deficits are affecting the overall economic environment, leading to uncertainty in investment decisions [1] - Geopolitical risks are creating additional volatility, complicating the operational landscape for businesses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current dynamics in the gold market are characterized by a tug-of-war between "policy easing expectations supporting gold prices" and "risk appetite diminishing safe-haven demand" [5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Gold prices have fallen from the $4000 psychological level to a three-week low due to rising risk appetite stemming from improved global trade relations [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with investors inclined to take profits above the $4000 mark [3] - Short-term technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with gold prices having broken below the $4000 level and showing signs of increasing short positions [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a focal point for the market, with investors fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in October and another potential cut in December [1][3] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, indicating that inflation, while slowing, remains above target, providing room for "moderate easing" [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - If gold prices continue to face pressure and break below the $3950 support level, further selling pressure may target $3900, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the price increase from July to October [3] - Conversely, if gold prices rebound and break above the $4020 resistance level, they may face strong resistance in the $4050-$4060 range, with potential targets of $4110 and $4155-$4160 if stability is achieved above this level [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions have briefly elevated risk sentiment, particularly following U.S. President Trump's comments on nuclear submarine deployments in response to Russia's new missile tests, providing limited support for gold prices [3]