新华财经圣保罗6月16日电（记者杨家和）当地时间16日，受全球地缘紧张局势缓和、巴西国内经济数 据改善以及市场对"超级星期三"利率会议的高度关注等多重因素影响，巴西雷亚尔兑美元时隔八个月再 度涨破5.50，涨幅达1.03%。经济学家预计到2025年年底巴西雷亚尔兑美元将为5.77，之前预估5.80。 分析人士认为，全球利率政策的协同调整将直接影响新兴市场的资本流动结构。未来利差变动将成为影 响巴西吸引外资能力的重要因素。 中东风险趋缓市场风险偏好回升 随着以色列与伊朗冲突进入第四日，市场情绪趋于理性。此前由于担心袭击影响控制着全球约五分之一 石油消耗的霍尔木兹海峡，导致石油供应中断，国际市场油价一度上涨逾8%，但最新交易日收盘价格 已转为下跌。 对市场而言，这场冲突引发了避险情绪，导致投资者最初寻求美元和黄金等安全资产的庇护。上周五美 元兑其他主要货币汇率上涨，正是这种情况的体现。 但在本周第一个交易日，美元未能维持涨势，体现投资者对美国资产表现出一定的厌恶。"到目前为 止，地缘政治紧张局势对美元几乎没有提振作用，反映出市场对其避险地位的持续不信任。"埃伯里银 行（Ebury Bank)市场分析师爱德华多·穆 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a technical rebound in major stock indices. However, domestic funds remain cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed-asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May, the decline in new construction continued to narrow at a low level, the decline in investment slightly expanded, and the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Iran has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on the premise that the United States does not participate in the Israeli attack, and hopes to limit the attacks to a limited scope [1]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share three major indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.26%. The sector indices rose more and fell less, with the media, communication, computer, and real estate industries leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% to 19701.21 points [1]. Futures Market - **Basis**: This Friday, the current-month contracts were delivered, and the basis of IF, IH, and IC rebounded. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of all stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy - Driven by the positive signal of the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the risk appetite of the global market has been repaired, and the main stock indices have shown a technical rebound. The domestic capital market remains cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the margin trading balance [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Present the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis of stock index futures, and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [15][35][40].

周二（6月17日）亚洲时段，现货黄金上行涨破3400美元大关，因交易员获利了结，周一黄金价格在触 及八周高点后下跌逾1%，最终收跌1.38%，收报3384.54美元/盎司，中东地缘政治紧张局势升级，尤其 是以色列与伊朗的冲突持续，依然给金价走势提供支撑，即将来临的美联储政策会议，成为市场关注的 焦点，本交易日关注美国5月零售销售月率、美国5月进口物价指数月率、美国5月工业产出月率、美国4 月商业库存月率等数据。 中东局势的持续紧张是近期黄金行情波动的重要驱动因素。以色列与伊朗的冲突自6月12日起显著升 级，以色列对伊朗国家广播电视台大楼及纳坦兹铀浓缩工厂的空袭，导致伊朗核设施遭受严重破坏。据 国际原子能机构(IAEA)总干事格罗西透露，纳坦兹约15,000台离心机可能全部受损或被毁，这不仅削弱 了伊朗的核能力，也加剧了地区的对抗情绪。伊朗则以大规模导弹袭击作为回应，成功突破以色列防空 网，造成平民伤亡，进一步推高了市场对地缘政治风险的担忧。 除了地缘政治因素，美联储的政策动向同样对金价构成重要影响。美联储为期两天的政策会议将于周三 结束，市场普遍预期其将维持当前利率不变。 BMO Capital Market ...

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing an unfavorable demand situation and generally follows cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 1.66% and 1.35% respectively; the spot price of naphtha increased by 0.59%; the spot price of xylene decreased by 1.88%; the CFR price of PX in China's main port increased by 1.43% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts showed mixed trends; the domestic spot price of PTA decreased by 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of PTA's inner and outer markets showed different changes, with the outer market increasing by 4.03%; the near - far month spread increased by 132 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - **PX Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts were mostly flat; the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged; the spot prices of PX in CFR Taiwan and FOB South Korea increased; the PXN spread increased by 3.66%; the PX - MX spread increased by 23.94%; the basis increased by 22 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts increased slightly; the market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets showed different trends; the basis in the East China market increased by 22 yuan/ton, while that in the South China market decreased by 38 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips all increased to varying degrees [2] Operating Conditions - On June 16, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged; the load rates of PTA factories, bottle - chip factories decreased, while the load rate of polyester factories increased slightly, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On June 16, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips all decreased significantly [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2] Important News - **International Crude Oil**: After Iran's missile counter - attack over the weekend, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East suddenly increased, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, as Iran sought to restart nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell on Monday. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the weak demand cannot be ignored [2] - **PX**: In the case of acceptable processing profits, some PX devices increased their loads, and some postponed maintenance plans, increasing the overall supply capacity. In the medium - term, PX will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. The tense situation in the Middle East has driven the oil market to be strong, and with subsequent Asian device maintenance plans, the supply - demand tight - balance expectation continues [2] - **PTA**: The PTA market declined slightly due to the planned joint production cut of downstream polyester bottle - chip manufacturers, which weakened the impact of a PTA device's production cut in East China. The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the planned restart capacity this week is more than the planned maintenance capacity, so the PTA supply will increase this month. Although most polyester products are theoretically in production losses, the announced polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the rigid demand is expected to be stable. The domestic weaving market continued to decline in June, with a small number of US orders emerging. The terminal inventory pressure is large, and the operating rate of weaving factories is expected to decline [2] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 5 yuan/ton. The polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations of bottle chips were mixed, and the downstream terminal demand was mainly small rigid orders. Some mainstream factories on the supply side announced maintenance plans, and the operating rate is expected to decline, while the market supply is currently sufficient [2] Trading Strategy - PTA rose and then fell, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4766 yuan/ton (-0.42%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.5 million lots; PX was greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6758 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and an intraday trading volume of 342,900 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5980 yuan/ton (0.17%) and an intraday trading volume of 61,000 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, international oil prices first rose sharply and then fell by 5%, but the decline narrowed at the close [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply in the Middle East is not expected to be disrupted, forecasting WTI crude prices to drop to $55 per barrel and Brent crude to $59 per barrel by Q4 2025, and further down to $52 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [1] - Citigroup analysts indicate that the efforts of the Trump administration to lower oil prices may be complicated by Israel's actions against Iran, which have already pushed Brent crude prices to $78.50 per barrel [2] - The Royal Bank of Canada expresses concerns over the increasing risks to oil supply due to ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran, highlighting that energy infrastructure has become a target [5] - Credit Suisse notes that despite the ongoing conflict, market reactions have been surprisingly muted, with oil prices initially rising but then retracting [4] - Huatai Securities reports that oil prices have rebounded significantly, with WTI and Brent crude futures rising by 16.7% and 14.9% respectively since early June [10] Group 2: Economic and Market Outlook - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expresses a more favorable outlook for non-U.S. regions in the second half of 2025, driven by a stable global economy and continued rate cuts by major central banks [6] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the A-share market will gradually shift upward amid a weak dollar trend and improved liquidity conditions [7] - CITIC Securities also highlights that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to significant volatility in oil prices, with Brent futures expected to fluctuate between $70 and $100 per barrel [8] - Huatai Securities suggests that the third quarter may experience high volatility, but sectors like dividends and essential consumption can still serve as core holdings [11]

地缘局势主导能化波动，前景并不明朗 以色列和伊朗之间的公开敌对状态进入第四天，且没有任何缓和的迹 象；过去24小时内伊朗向以色列发射了多波无人机和导弹，而以色列袭击 了伊朗首都德黑兰。16日北京时间晚上8点，以色列表示该国空军已掌控 德黑兰上空。伊朗当前还没有原油供应减量发生，但是该国的一些化工装 置已经意外关停，包括EG和MA。即使伊以局势平息后，伊朗和美国之间是 否会重启谈判也需要密切关注。 板块逻辑： 能化产业链在地缘的影响下强势拉升。原油上涨抬升了化工品的成 本。原油的上涨也短暂推动了终端产业链的补库，因为原料价格的涨幅还 未蔓延到产业最下游，聚酯产销就在上周五出现了放量。产业链中高硫燃 料油也有潜在利好，伊朗的高硫产量占全球比例逾8%。单边的空头趋势可 能仍需等待，投资者以对冲思路为宜，影响了实际供应的品种偏向多配， 产量增速较高的偏向空配。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：原油冲高回落，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：高硫燃油冲高回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油走强 甲醇：伊以扰动，甲醇大幅走强 尿素：地缘扰动叠加内外需启动，盘面偏强运行 乙二醇：港口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, with the market's risk aversion sentiment cooling in the short - term, and the US dollar index weakening. The price of gold has returned below the $3400 mark, lacking the momentum to break through and rise [1][13][17]. - China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance. Although consumption growth exceeded expectations, the downward trend in the real estate sector offset the positive impact of consumption to some extent. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but it is difficult for fundamental news to drive the bond market to strengthen further [2][24][27]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy changes. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the growth of US soybeans and the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans; the price of crude oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East [3][5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and resume negotiations on its nuclear program. The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds. Japan has not reached an overall agreement with the US on tariffs. The price of gold has fallen by more than 1%, and it lacks the momentum to break through and rise in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and be aware of the risk of price corrections [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the UK signed a trade agreement, and the US will postpone sanctions against Russia. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, the market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled in the short - term, and the US dollar index has weakened. It is recommended that the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The New York Fed's manufacturing index in June showed a greater - than - expected contraction. Iran has sent signals for dialogue, but the geopolitical risk has not been completely eliminated. The risk of a correction in the US stock market is still relatively large [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Goldman Sachs is bullish on the performance of Chinese private enterprises. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and it is recommended to allocate individual stock indexes evenly [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market. It is recommended to layout medium - term long positions on dips [26][27][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased, the NOPA's May soybean crushing volume was the highest in the same period in history but lower than expected, and the excellent - good rate of US soybeans has decreased by 2%. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the demand for soybean meal is strong. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and the basis is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29][30][32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 15 decreased by 4% month - on - month, and the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China has increased. The price of the oil market is supported by the demand for US biodiesel. It is not recommended to short, and short - term long - buying opportunities can be continued to be关注 [33][34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is running firmly at a high level. The cost of raw materials supports the price of corn starch, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36][37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn has risen slightly. The supply of imported corn may increase, and the substitution of wheat is limited. The 09 contract of corn is expected to oscillate first strongly and then weakly. It is not recommended to short or long the 09 contract, and opportunities to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies can be关注 when the new - season yield is more clear [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is running weakly. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed qualitatively. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about chasing long positions [38][39]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production in May was 86.55 million tons. The demand for real estate has not changed significantly, and the demand for infrastructure and manufacturing has also changed little. The steel price is supported by energy prices, but the rebound space is limited. It is recommended that the steel price will oscillate in the short term, and the spot end should be treated with a rally - hedging strategy [4][40][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The market is pessimistic about the future trend of silicon wafer prices. The production of polysilicon in June is expected to maintain at 960,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies, and pay attention to the production - reduction actions of leading enterprises [45][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The transaction center of organic silicon DMC has moved down. The supply of industrial silicon may increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly on rallies [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - LME copper inventory has fallen to a new low in more than a year. Iran is seeking dialogue, and the risk of geopolitical war has decreased. The domestic copper inventory is still at a low level, and the supply of deliverable goods is tight. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [49][52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import management of lithium - ion battery and recycled steel raw materials has been standardized. A US energy storage integrator has applied for bankruptcy. The downstream receiving willingness is insufficient after the rebound, and the basis has weakened. It is recommended not to short at the current point, and it is advisable to short on rallies [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - An Australian silver - zinc mine has achieved commercial production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies, wait and see for spreads, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign arbitrage in the medium term [59][60][62]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The conflict between Iran and Israel has pushed up freight rates. The impact of the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field on LPG production is limited. It is recommended to关注 reverse - spread trading opportunities [63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's production in May increased by 180,000 barrels per day month - on - month. The price of oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to note that geopolitical conflicts will cause increased volatility [65][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation atmosphere is fair. The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand has decreased. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and it is advisable to short after the geopolitical situation eases [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The supply of pure benzene and styrene is gradually returning, and the demand is expected to be average in the far - month. It is recommended to note that the absolute price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disturbances [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The international market has high internal - external price differences, and the spot sentiment has improved. It is recommended to关注 the export situation and policy relaxation [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased. The supply of asphalt is expected to be continuously restricted, and the price of asphalt is expected to oscillate upwards [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to关注 opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and non - aluminum downstream demand is poor. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to decline again. It is recommended that the 09 contract has limited downward space due to large discounts [79][80][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is consolidating at a low level. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased. The fundamentals of PVC have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [84]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The domestic soda - ash market is oscillating downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei has remained stable. As the high - temperature and rainy season approaches, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable. The spot price has room to decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to sustain [87].