Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report suggests that controlling production capacity from group farms has a sufficiently large radiation scale and strong targeting, which may achieve significant control effects and impacts. In terms of slaughter scale, the degree of scale in the pig farming industry has reached a high level, with the 18 listed pig companies accounting for 24% of the industry's slaughter volume in 2024. The marginal contribution mainly comes from these 18 listed companies, which contributed 120% and 89% of the slaughter volume increment in 2022 and 2023, respectively. In 2024, they maintained growth even in a shrinking industry context, with the weight of group farms in the front-end breeding stock capacity changes also increasing, indicating strong targeting of production capacity control policies [2][6][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale and Concentration - The pig farming industry has shown a long-term trend of scale, with the proportion of entities slaughtering over 500 heads increasing from 12% in 2004 to 70% in 2024. The market share of listed companies reached 24% in 2024, indicating a high level of industry concentration. The industry experienced two rounds of accelerated concentration, with the number of small-scale farms decreasing significantly due to environmental regulations and the impact of African swine fever, which forced many small farmers out of the market [7][17][19]. Contribution of Listed Companies - After the African swine fever outbreak, the increase in industry slaughter volume has mainly been driven by the 18 listed companies. In years of declining industry slaughter volume, these companies have shown resilience, contributing positively to overall growth. For instance, in 2022, the listed companies' slaughter volume increased by 34.37 million heads, accounting for 120% of the total industry increment. In 2023, they contributed 23.87 million heads, representing 89% of the total increment. Even in 2024, when the industry faced negative growth, these companies still increased their overall slaughter volume by 9.32 million heads [8][46][47]. Trends in Production Capacity - The report highlights a trend towards specialization within the industry, with group farms gaining importance in front-end production capacity changes. The leading company, Muyuan Foods, maintained stable growth in breeding stock during the industry's contraction phase. From Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry is expected to see a recovery of 470,000 breeding sows, while Muyuan's breeding stock is projected to grow by 340,000 during the same period [51][55]. Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - The capital expenditure of listed companies surged during the high-profit period following the African swine fever outbreak, with significant investments made to expand production capacity. However, since 2021, there has been a rationalization in the pace of capacity expansion, with capital expenditures decreasing and the industry experiencing reduced volatility in production capacity [31][40][42]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the pig farming industry is at a critical juncture, with significant contributions from large-scale listed companies and a shift towards more specialized production practices. The targeting of production capacity control policies from group farms is expected to yield positive results in managing industry dynamics [2][6][16].

2025 年 7 月 9 日 银河能化-20250709 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-07-09） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2508 合约 68.33 涨 0.40 美元/桶，环比+0.59%；Brent2509 合约 70.15 涨 0.57 美元/桶，环比+0.82%。SC 主力合约 2508 涨 8.6 至 509.9 元/桶，夜盘涨 6.4 至 516.3 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 1.17 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周二进一步扩大全球贸易战，宣布对进口铜征收 50%关税，并表示长期以 来威胁要征收的半导体和药品关税即将出台。他还表示，与欧盟和中国的贸易谈判进展良 好，但称"很可能"在两天内告诉欧盟对美出口的预期税率。 特朗普对 14 个国家宣布将对它们加征关税后，日本和韩国表示，他们将尝试与美国进行 谈判，以减轻特朗普总统计划从 8 月初开始实施的大幅提高关税的影响。美国白宫经济顾 问委员会主席米兰表示，他乐观地认为本周末之前可以达成更多贸易协议。 EIA 将今年的全球石油日产量增长预测从日增 160 万桶上调至 180 万桶，并将 2026 年的增 长预测 ...

7月8日，诺和诺德与天津经开区管委会签署合作谅解备忘录，约定投资约8亿元建设天津生产厂质量检测实验室扩建项目，并举行项目 启动活动。 质量检测实验室扩建项目总建筑面积约18000平方米，建设内容包括化学实验室、微生物实验室和生物实验室等，项目计划于2026年底 建设完成。实验室扩建项目建成投用后将满足诺和诺德天津生产厂未来制剂生产的检测需求，更好地为产能提升和高品质生产提供保 障。 整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 诺和诺德天津生产厂坐落于天津经济技术开发区，是诺和诺德的战略性生产基地之一。天津生产厂质量管理体系严格遵循各项行业法律 法规，同时践行绿色环保理念，100%使用可再生风电能源。如今，天津生产 厂在职员工约1800名，为患者提供高质量的治疗产品。 来源｜天津经开区、 诺和诺德中国 版权声明：所有「GLP1减重宝典」的原创文章，转载须联系授权，并在文首/文末注明来源、作者、微信ID，否则减重宝典将向其追究法律责 任。部分文章推送时未能与原作者或公众号平台取得联系。若涉及版权问题，敬请原作者联系我们。合作事宜，请添加微信：andyxu365 诺和诺德天津生产厂自成立以来不断增加投资，加速在津发展步伐。 ...

7月9日，锰硅期货主力合约小幅上涨1.28%，报收于5718.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 7月8日，郑商所锰硅期货仓单87849张，环比上个交易日减少364张。 据调研，截止7月8日，全国50家主产建材的电炉钢厂开工率为33.02%，环比上期上升1.16%；产能利用 率为35.19%，环比上升0.88%；建材日均产量为7.84万吨，环比上升0.2万吨。 河钢集团7月硅锰采量14600吨。6月采量：11700吨。（2024年7月采量：14100吨）。7月河钢75B硅铁 招标数量2700吨，上轮招标数量2200吨，较上轮增500吨。 机构观点 光大期货：近期在"反内卷"、"清产能"等消息刺激下，市场情绪有一定升温，但目前看来，基本面缺乏 共振驱动，短期情绪端驱动可持续性偏弱。供应端，随着近期锰硅价格小幅上移，生产利润边际好转， 锰硅周产量仍在持续增加，需求端，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比略有增加，但绝对值仍处历史同期 低位水平，终端需求没有明显增量，钢厂备货意愿有限，以刚需采购为主。库存端，当前供需结构下， 63家样本企业库存在逐渐累积。综合来看，预计短期锰硅期价低位震荡运行为主，关注黑色板块走势及 后续中央政 ...

福斯特（603806）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为4.73亿元，与上年同期 相比，将减少4.55亿元，同比下降49.05%。预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性 损益的净利润为4.26亿元，与上年同期相比，将减少4.73亿元，同比减少52.65%。本次业绩预减的主要 原因是受光伏行业产能过剩、市场竞争加剧等因素影响，公司原材料光伏树脂采购单价及光伏胶膜产品 销售单价均下降，导致营业收入规模和综合毛利率下降。 ...

摩根大通在最新研报指出，中国政府治理产能过剩的政策若执行得当，将对股市和全球贸易产生积极影响。中国行业龙头企业尤其是新能源汽车和房地产相关公司，有望从更强的定价能力、更高的收入市场份额和更健康的利润率中受益。目前所有产能过剩行业的股价都低于2021年峰值，其中电池、光伏、水泥、钢铁和化工行业股价回调跌幅超过50%。MSCI中国指数数据显示，汽车、化工、建材以及金属和采矿相关企业有望在产能收紧后获得更好的净利润率。 #反内卷None (@None):None ...

多家华尔街投行看好中国"反内卷"政策。继高盛后，摩根大通发声称：中国"去产能"政策或将提振股 市。 近日，中国召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议明确要求，依法治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有 序退出，成为国家层面给出的反内卷政策新信号。同时，钢铁、水泥、电池、塑料加工等多个行业协会 也陆续发起了"反内卷"号召。 7月9日，摩根大通最新研报显示，中国政府治理产能过剩的政策若执行得当，将对股市和全球贸易产生 积极影响。该行策略师Wendy Liu表示，中国行业龙头企业尤其是新能源汽车和房地产相关公司，有望 从更强的定价能力、更高的收入市场份额和更健康的利润率中受益。 高盛分析师认为，此次政策表述显示重心正从此前的"反内卷"短期措施转向更加根本性的产能退出机 制。 摩根大通表示，这些政策可能缓解通胀压力并提升利润率，同时通过抑制中国低价出口来减少贸易摩 擦。 据澎湃近日报道，7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，对推进全国统一大市场建设进行部署。会 议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业 提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 据该投行统计，目前所有产能过剩行业的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 8th, polysilicon hit the daily limit again due to multiple news. The main contract 2508 closed at 38,385 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 7%. The SMM N-type polysilicon price rose to 39,000 yuan/ton. The spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton compared to the main contract. Industrial silicon showed a slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,215 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.8%. The spot premium narrowed to 215 yuan/ton. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. The market has strong support, and short-selling is not advisable. One can choose to wait and see or take a small long position. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside. A high-selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon is affected by multiple news, hitting the daily limit again. Industrial silicon shows a slightly stronger trend. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,990 yuan/ton on July 7th to 8,195 yuan/ton on July 8th. The spot price of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium decreased from 240 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 36,515 yuan/ton on July 7th to 38,385 yuan/ton on July 8th. The N-type polysilicon price rose from 36,000 yuan/ton to 39,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton. Data for other products were incomplete [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][24] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost and profit of DMC and polysilicon [27][29][32] Group 4: Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract priced at 1190.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.10% increase [1] - Weekly production of soda ash in China decreased to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% decline from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate slightly fell to 81.32%, down 0.89% [2] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons or 2.13% from the previous week, with light soda ash at 805,800 tons and heavy soda ash at 1.0423 million tons [2] Group 2 - East China Futures notes that the glass industry is expected to reduce production due to signals from the Central Financial Committee regarding governance, raising concerns about potential capacity exit in the soda ash market [3] - The soda ash profit margin has decreased week-on-week, with ammonia-soda method profits turning negative and the soda-lime method profits at breakeven [3] - Ningzheng Futures observes that the domestic soda ash market remains weak and fluctuating, with high supply and inventory levels, and downstream enterprises showing low purchasing enthusiasm [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to address "involution" in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel sector, through policy reforms aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and reducing excess capacity [1]. Policy Developments - Since 2025, multiple policies have been introduced to combat "involution," including the emphasis on market-oriented resource allocation and the elimination of local protectionism and market segmentation [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed a plan on May 20 to address "involution" by intensifying efforts to dismantle local protection and market segmentation, as well as curbing the disorderly expansion of outdated production capacity [1]. - A report released by the NDRC on March 13, 2025, outlined revisions to capacity replacement implementation methods in industries like steel, aiming to facilitate the gradual exit of inefficient production capacity and maintain control over crude steel output [1]. Industry Implications - The policies are expected to accelerate capacity regulation, which could benefit the steel industry by improving the supply-demand balance [1]. - The only ETF tracking the steel industry, the Steel ETF (515210), follows the CSI Steel Index, which includes listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the steel sector [1]. - The index components cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry, showcasing significant industry concentration characteristics [1].