Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Interest rate adjustments have led to a divergence in the performance of credit bonds, with the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds widening, while long - term credit bonds have shown strong performance. The spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with weaker platforms performing well. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. The excess spreads of 3 - year industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds have compressed, while the spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Adjustments Lead to Divergence in Credit Bond Performance, with Widening Spreads of Medium - and Short - Term High - Grade Bonds This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds have slightly rebounded. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds have increased by 1BP. The yields of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds have adjusted, while most other varieties have continued to decline. Credit spreads have mostly declined, with the largest decline in 7Y varieties, and the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade bonds have widened. Rating spreads and term spreads have mostly declined [3][6]. 3.2 Narrow Fluctuations in Urban Investment Bond Spreads, with Good Performance of Weaker Platforms This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with some differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of externally rated AAA - level platforms have increased by 1BP, those of AA + - level platforms have remained basically flat, and those of AA - level platforms have decreased by 1BP. When classified by administrative level, the spreads of provincial - level platforms have increased by 1BP, while those of municipal and district - level platforms have remained basically flat [3][10][17]. 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Coal Bonds and Private Real Estate Bonds See an Increase in Spreads Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 40BP. The spreads of AAA - level coal bonds have increased by 9BP, those of AA + - level bonds have remained flat, and those of AA - level coal bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of steel and chemical bonds at all levels have declined by 0 - 3BP [3][15]. 3.4 Yields of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Mostly Rise, with Compressed Spreads of 5 - Year Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AAA - and AA + commercial bank Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 4BP, and the yields of AA - level bonds have increased by 2BP, with spreads increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds at all levels have increased by 4 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 2 - 4BP. The yields of 5Y AAA - and AA + Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads have decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of AA - level bonds have decreased by 1BP, and the spreads have compressed by 3BP [27][28]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of 3 - Year Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Compress, while the Spreads of 5 - Year Urban Investment Bonds Rebound This week, the excess spreads of 3 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.18BP to 9.53BP, at the 11.52% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have remained flat at 9.22BP, at the 10.27% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.12BP to 4.31BP, at the 0.37% percentile. The excess spreads of 5 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have increased by 1.37BP to 10.30BP, at the 9.54% percentile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the Credit Spread Database Compilation The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical percentiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical percentiles also calculated since the beginning of 2015. Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are also provided [38].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates exhibited some divergence [1] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.04% to 119.400, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.705% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.74 basis points to 3.974% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 1.514% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4792%, 1.7059%, and 1.7985% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining by 4.1 basis points to 1.411% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that uncertainty may persist in the economic landscape through 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year [6] - China International Capital Corporation noted that credit bond supply may continue to recover, while short-term credit spreads are at historically low levels [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to price fluctuations in the agricultural and black upstream sectors, and technological development in the agricultural midstream [1]. - Keep an eye on the promotion of elderly - care service - related products [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Sichuan has drafted measures to promote the high - quality development of animal husbandry, including supporting leading livestock enterprises and promoting the transformation and upgrading of pig slaughtering [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of April, there were 216,000 types of age - friendly products in the market, with 28,700 new varieties, especially in assistive walking products and daily - life aids [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of natural rubber, eggs, and glass have declined [1][2]. - **Midstream**: The PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of first - tier city commercial housing have declined seasonally, and the number of international and domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. - **Market Pricing**: The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry has slightly declined [4]. 3.3 Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry decreased from 62.07 last week to 58.65 this week [50]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries' price indicators have different trends. For example, the spot price of corn decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and the spot price of natural rubber decreased by 4.07% year - on - year [51].

Summary of Credit Bond Yield Trends in April Overall Credit Bond Performance - In April, credit bond yields exhibited a downward trend overall, with short-term spreads narrowing across the board. However, the decline in medium to long-term yields was less pronounced compared to the same maturity national development bonds, leading to a widening of credit spreads [5][9][11]. - By the end of April, short-term credit spreads remained at historically low levels, while medium to long-term financial bonds were at relatively high historical percentiles [5][11]. Industry-Specific Credit Spread Trends - **Industrial Bonds**: Most AAA-rated industrial bonds saw credit spreads widen in April. Among public bonds, the financial holding sector experienced the largest widening of 8.68 basis points, while the textile and apparel sector saw the most significant narrowing of 4.89 basis points. In private bonds, the basic chemical and retail sectors experienced slight narrowing, while other sectors generally widened by 3-10 basis points, with the steel sector widening the most at 10.86 basis points [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: Credit spreads for local government bonds showed mixed trends, with lower-rated bonds generally narrowing while higher-rated bonds widened. Regions with relatively high spreads, such as Guizhou and Qinghai, mostly saw narrowing, while lower spread regions like Beijing and Shanghai experienced widening [5][9]. - **Financial Bonds**: The credit spreads for bank perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, while the spreads for securities company subordinated bonds and insurance company capital replenishment bonds widened across the board [5][9]. Historical Context - The credit spreads for various types of bonds remained at historically low levels, with AA-rated public and private industrial bonds reaching 30%-50% of their historical percentiles. Financial bonds generally had higher spread levels, exceeding the 30% historical percentile [11][12]. Key Industry Observations - In April, the steel and coal industries saw credit spreads widen across the board, with changes not exceeding 7 basis points. The high-grade bonds in these sectors experienced more significant widening. The electricity and construction engineering sectors also saw most spreads widen [15][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From May 19 - 23, interest - rate bonds fluctuated, while credit bonds continued to strengthen with declining yields and narrowing credit spreads. 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds, showed advantages [1][9]. - In May, the net financing of credit bonds was negative and decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by urban investment bonds. However, the issuance interest rate declined overall, with a larger decline in the short - to - medium - term [2][10]. - The 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have significant coupon cost - effectiveness, large stock scale, and room for credit spread compression [2][14][15]. - For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to select high - cost - effective individual bonds through two ideas: high excess spread and steep yield curve [3][18]. - For bank capital bonds, a strategy combining short - duration downgrading and long - duration investment in large banks is relatively advantageous [5][25]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Continues to be Negative, Seeking Returns in Medium - to - Long - Term - Net financing may be negative for three consecutive months. From May 1 - 25, 2025, the issuance was 181.5 billion yuan, the maturity was 252.5 billion yuan, and the net financing deficit expanded to 71 billion yuan [28]. - The primary market issuance sentiment continued to recover, with the proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times increasing by 9 percentage points to 73%. The issuance interest rate continued to decline, with 1 - year - within, 1 - 3 - year, 3 - 5 - year, and over - 5 - year rates decreasing by 13bp, 12bp, 3bp, and 9bp respectively compared to April [2][10][28]. - In the secondary market, yields declined across the board, and spreads continued to compress. The market is looking for returns in the medium - to - long - term, and 3 - 5 - year bonds have become more active in trading [31][33]. 2. Industrial Bonds: Buying Sentiment Recovers, and Trading Continues to Extend Duration - In the primary market, the issuance scale increased slightly year - on - year, but the net financing decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, and the issuance period was concentrated within 1 year. The issuance interest rate of bonds within 3 years declined, while that of bonds over 3 years increased [36]. - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment recovered, and trading continued to extend duration. The proportion of trading over 5 years increased from 9% to 13%, while the proportion within 1 year decreased from 31% to 24% [9]. 3. Bank Capital Bonds: Medium - to - Long - Duration Secondary Capital Bonds Perform Well - In the primary market, from May 19 - 23, 2025, some banks issued 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds [42]. - In the secondary market, the yields of bank capital bonds generally declined by 1 - 9bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - to - long - duration secondary capital bonds performed well [4][5][42].

证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比：债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后， 一些银行通过减少加点幅度，仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...

存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压缩 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | ] | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 邮 | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压 ...

施罗德投资固定收益投资总监吴美燕称，近期美债利率剧烈波动，引起投资者担忧。但她表示，对长期 投资者而言，短期市场的剧烈抛售行为，往往蕴藏布局机会。观察过去一年的债市表现，信用利差处于 相对低点，价值空间受限。近期随市场情势变化，信用利差扩大，债市即展现出吸引力，适合中长期布 局。 施罗德投资强调，过去一段时间，美国股债市场皆表现良好。然而，现阶段反而要积极通过地区及债券 品种的分散，才可有效降低投组波动，并且掌握长线债券投资机会。 施罗德指，在分散策略方面，暂时不便过分着墨于新兴市场，因其波动性较高，容易造成额外不安；相 反，欧洲与英国等成熟市场因其能够提供较为稳定的债券投资机会，也有降息带来债券价格上扬的可能 性，或可成为首选。 值得注意的是，当前有些投资者期望以现金或者黄金作为避险的选择。施罗德表示，市场的恐慌情绪固 然会让现金以及黄金具备短线吸引力，但这两项资产并不具备息收能力，黄金也存在价格波动风险。对 长期投资者来说，债券具有价格以及收息优势，才是真正具备核心资产配置特性的品种。整体而言，当 前虽然市场风险尚未完全消除，但在价格修正与价值显现的交会点上，既是危机也是转机，同时也是债 市中长期投资进场 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]