Core Viewpoint - Liu Zhihui emphasizes a rational approach to investment amidst market volatility, focusing on macroeconomic cycles and industry allocation to achieve steady returns [2][3] Investment Philosophy - Liu's investment framework consists of three core elements: understanding macro cycles, assessing odds, and respecting market signals [3] - The investment philosophy includes "Investment Way," "Investment Method," and "Investment Technique," focusing on market trends, macro and industry analysis, and specific trading strategies [4] Multi-Asset Framework - Liu's investment strategy spans fixed income, equities, and convertible bonds, aiming for absolute returns through flexible allocation and odds thinking [5] - In bond investment, Liu adjusts duration and leverage based on macro analysis, credit environment, and market sentiment [6] Stock and Convertible Bond Strategy - Liu captures industry trends and cyclical turning points through sector rotation and concentrated allocation, focusing on both intrinsic value and market pricing signals [6] - For convertible bonds, Liu only allocates when they exhibit characteristics of downside protection and upside potential, guided by macroeconomic fundamentals [6] Recent Market Actions - In response to market adjustments, Liu increased exposure to sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, while also considering undervalued sectors such as machinery and real estate [7] - Liu maintains a neutral stance on the bond market, focusing on short-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds due to low yield levels [7]

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report Title: 3Y within General Credit Bonds and 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Spread Continues to Compress - Credit Spread Weekly Tracking 20251018 [1] - Report Date: October 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Special Report [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Interest rates are oscillating, and credit bonds continue to recover. The spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds have significantly compressed. Credit spreads have generally converged, with short - duration spreads having a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads of different external ratings and administrative levels all showing a downward trend. [2][9] - Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined, while those of mixed - ownership and private real estate bonds have increased. The spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds have mostly declined. [2][20] - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined this week, and the spreads of 3 - 5Y bonds have continued to recover, with high - grade varieties performing better. [2][31] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased. [2][34] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Interest rates oscillate, and credit bonds continue to recover, with the spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds significantly compressing - Interest rate bonds have maintained an oscillating pattern. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 1BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week, while the yield of 10Y bonds has decreased by 1BP. [2][5] - Most credit bond yields have declined, and credit spreads have significantly converged. Short - duration credit spreads have a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - In terms of rating spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have shown different changes. In terms of term spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have also shown different trends. [5] II. Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP - The credit spreads of external rating AAA platforms have generally declined by 4BP compared to last week, while those of AA+ and AA have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][9] - In terms of administrative levels, the credit spreads of provincial platforms have generally declined by 4BP, while those of municipal and district - county platforms have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][17] III. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined by 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have increased by 46BP, and those of private real estate bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of some real estate companies have different degrees of change. [2][20] - The spreads of all grades of coal bonds have declined by 4BP; the spreads of AAA steel bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP; the spreads of AAA chemical bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP. The spreads of some companies have different degrees of decline. [2][20] IV. The spreads of 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds continue to recover - The yields of 1Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 1BP, and perpetual bonds have remained roughly flat, with credit spreads declining by 2 - 3BP. [2][31] - The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 3 - 4BP, and the yields of perpetual bonds have declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 5 - 7BP. [2][31] - The yields of 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 2 - 3BP, and the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds have declined by 3 - 5BP, with spreads declining by 3 - 6BP. [2][31] V. The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased - The excess spread of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.99BP compared to last week to 15.51BP, at the 41.31% quantile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds has remained flat compared to last week at 12.39BP, at the 25.90% quantile since 2015. [2][34] - The excess spread of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.15BP to 4.97BP, at the 3.01% quantile. The excess spread of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds has declined by 3.39BP to 11.08BP, at the 16.73% quantile. [2][34] VI. Credit spread database compilation instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. [39] - The calculation methods for various spreads and the sample selection criteria for industrial and urban investment bonds are provided. [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries generally declined [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, a total of 379 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 433.329 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 206.54% [1][11] - In terms of issuance scale, 177 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 237.725 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 270.37%, accounting for 54.86% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 164 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 101.634 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 132.16%, accounting for 23.45%; 38 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 93.970 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 181.35%, accounting for 21.69% [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.30 years, among which industrial bonds had an average issuance term of 1.86 years, urban investment bonds 2.87 years, and financial bonds 1.93 years [2][16] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.20%, among which industrial bonds had an average issuance coupon rate of 2.09%, urban investment bonds 2.37%, and financial bonds 1.94% [2][20] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds cancelled their issuance during the period [3][24] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads declined. Among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (8.2BP), and the largest downward spread was in electronics (9.8BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in non - ferrous metals (2.9BP), and the largest downward spread was in electrical equipment (25.4BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in real estate (10.1BP), and the largest downward spread was in machinery (12.9BP) [3][26] - The credit spreads of coal and steel both declined. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated coal declined by 1.7BP and 7.7BP respectively, and those of AAA and AA + - rated steel declined by 6.8BP and 6.3BP respectively [26] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds at all levels declined. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds declined by 3.8BP, 4.7BP, and 4.4BP respectively, and those of three - level non - urban investment bonds declined by 5BP, 4.4BP, and 5.3BP respectively [27] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both declined. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises declined by 4.9BP, 3.1BP, and 7.6BP respectively, those of three - level local state - owned enterprises declined by 4.9BP, 4.5BP, and 5.3BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises declined by 7.9BP and 8BP respectively [27] - The regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. In terms of spread levels, for AAA - rated regions, the three regions with the highest credit spreads were Shaanxi, Liaoning, and Jilin; for AA + - rated regions, they were Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu; for AA - rated regions, they were Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Guangxi. In terms of month - on - month changes, for AAA - rated regions, the largest upward spread was in Shaanxi (8.8BP), and the largest downward spread was in Inner Mongolia (9.1BP); for AA + - rated regions, the largest downward spread was in Heilongjiang (9BP); for AA - rated regions, the largest upward spread was in Fujian (8.4BP), and the largest downward spread was in Yunnan (12.9BP) [28] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1457.824 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 70.45%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 380.333 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 49.20%, accounting for 26.09% of the total credit bond trading volume; corporate bonds had a trading volume of 406.552 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 71.21%, accounting for 27.89%; medium - term notes had a trading volume of 361.073 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 103.74%, accounting for 24.77% [4][29] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds in the Current Period - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume were selected for investors' reference [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the credit spreads of bonds in the market generally widened across all tenors and ratings. The difference between the spreads of AA- and AAA bonds decreased, indicating a reduction in credit differentiation [2]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of different industries changed variedly in Q3 2025, with overall small fluctuations. The spreads of industries such as leisure services, comprehensive, building decoration, machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals, and mining increased significantly, while those of the banking and real estate industries narrowed. The spread of medium - rated (AA) real - estate bonds continued to widen due to the unimproved supply - demand relationship in the real - estate market [2]. - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of urban investment bonds at all tenors and ratings generally widened in Q3 2025, but the increase was limited. With the continuous progress of local debt resolution and the acceleration of the clearance of financing platforms, the credit risk of urban investment bonds was generally mitigated, and the credit spread fluctuation was relatively small. The difference in spreads between low - rated (AA -) and high - rated (AAA) 5 - year urban investment bonds narrowed, indicating a relief in credit differentiation for long - term urban investment bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Credit Spreads Widened Overall Spreads of All Tenors and Ratings Widened - **1 - year bonds**: Except for AA +, the spreads of 1 - year bonds of other ratings showed a similar trend. They narrowed slightly in July, then widened in August and September. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AA +, AA, AAA, and AA - bonds widened by 30.82BP, 8.55BP, 4.55BP, and 4.55BP respectively [5][8]. - **3 - year bonds**: The spreads of 3 - year bonds showed a differentiated trend. The spread of AA - narrowed, while those of other ratings fluctuated and widened. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AA, AAA, and AA + widened by 33.48BP, and the spreads of AAA and AA + had smaller increases, while the spread of AA - narrowed by 10.15BP [11][14]. - **5 - year bonds**: The spreads of 5 - year bonds generally showed an oscillating and widening trend. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AAA and AA + widened by 19.81BP, the spread of AA widened by 10.81BP, and the spread of AA - had a smaller increase [15][20]. The Difference between Low - and High - Rating Spreads Narrowed - In Q3 2025, the spread difference of 1 - year bonds remained relatively stable, while those of 3 - and 5 - year bonds narrowed. At the end of Q3 2025, the spread difference of 1 - year bonds was the same as that at the end of the previous quarter, while those of 3 - and 5 - year bonds decreased by 16BP compared with the end of the previous quarter, indicating a reduction in credit differentiation [21]. Industry Credit Spreads Fluctuated Slightly, and the Spread of Medium - Rated Real - Estate Industry Continued to Widen - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of different industries changed variedly in Q3 2025, with overall small fluctuations. Industries such as building decoration, non - ferrous metals, and mining had relatively large increases in spreads, while the banking credit spread narrowed significantly [26]. - The top three industries in terms of spreads at the end of Q3 2025 were the same as those in the previous quarter, namely real estate, steel, and leisure services; the bottom three were also the same as in the previous quarter, namely power, highways, and banking. In Q3, the spreads of most industries increased compared with the previous quarter, while those of a few industries narrowed slightly [30]. - Among the eight key industries, the medium - rated spreads of building decoration, real estate, and non - bank finance widened significantly at the end of Q3 2025. The real - estate market's supply - demand relationship remained to be improved, and weak - quality real - estate enterprises still faced high credit risks [31]. Credit Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds at All Ratings Generally Widened - **1 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 1 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings showed a similar trend. They narrowed slightly in July and then widened in the following two months. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA and AA + were basically the same as those at the end of the previous quarter, while those of AA and AA - widened by 3.15BP and 4.65BP respectively [34]. - **3 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 3 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings generally showed an oscillating and widening trend. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - widened by 7.24BP, 9.74BP, 11.74BP, and 22.24BP respectively compared with the end of the previous quarter [40][42]. - **5 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings generally showed an upward trend. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA widened by 23.54BP, 26.44BP, and 30.54BP respectively compared with the end of the previous quarter, while the spread of AA - had a relatively small increase [43]. - The spread differences between low - rated (AA -) and high - rated (AAA) urban investment bonds of different tenors showed a differentiated trend in Q3 2025. The spread difference of 1 - year bonds fluctuated slightly, that of 3 - year bonds increased slightly, and that of 5 - year bonds narrowed slightly, indicating a relief in credit differentiation for long - term urban investment bonds [46].

Core Viewpoint - Major asset management firms, including BlackRock, Fidelity International, and M&G, are reducing exposure to high-risk corporate bonds due to concerns over potential sell-offs if the global economy weakens, shifting towards safer high-rated corporate bonds or government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The spread between U.S. and European investment-grade bonds and government bonds is currently about 0.8 percentage points, significantly narrowed from over 1.5 percentage points in 2022, approaching the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis [1]. - There are concerns that the recent rally in credit markets, driven by easing trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, may have led to overly optimistic pricing regarding global economic growth [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing signs of resistance in high-risk areas of the corporate bond market, with several leveraged loan deals being shelved recently, indicating a shift towards safer debt options [3]. - A high-yield bond trader noted that numerous defaults in the past weeks are shaking investor confidence [3]. Group 3: Defensive Positioning - F&C Investment Trust has reduced its credit bond positions to "neutral" and sold off high-yield bonds due to increasing costs compared to government bonds [4]. - M&G Investments is shifting towards higher-rated corporate credit and guaranteed bonds issued by life insurance companies, as the cost of selling BBB-rated unsecured bonds and buying these alternatives is at a historical low [4]. Group 4: Yield Considerations - Despite rising government bond yields, the overall yield from corporate bonds is still viewed as attractive, with the yield on U.S. investment-grade bonds at approximately 4.8% according to the Ice index [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of land financialization on corporate bond pricing in China, highlighting how local government actions influence credit spreads through explicit support mechanisms [1][2][3]. Group 1: Land Financialization and Bond Pricing - Land financialization is defined as the process of converting land resources into capital, which has positively contributed to urbanization and economic development in China [2][3]. - The study analyzes data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2016 to 2023, focusing on the relationship between land financialization and corporate bond pricing [1][8]. - The findings indicate that land financialization increases bond credit spreads through local government revenue enhancement and expenditure reduction [1][23]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Influence - The article identifies two main mechanisms through which land financialization affects bond pricing: explicit support and implicit guarantees [2][3]. - Explicit support includes government subsidies, tax reductions, and procurement support, which can lead to over-financing by companies [2][3]. - Implicit guarantees create market expectations that the government will intervene in case of bond defaults, leading to mispricing of bonds [2][3]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis and Findings - The empirical analysis employs a fixed-effects model to assess the impact of land financialization on bond pricing, revealing a positive correlation between land financialization and credit spreads [8][16]. - The study also examines the role of non-tax expenditures and government subsidies as mediating variables, confirming that increased non-tax expenditures and reduced subsidies during land market adjustments lead to wider credit spreads [20][21]. - The results show that the effect of land financialization on credit spreads varies by ownership structure, with state-owned enterprises being more significantly affected [22][23]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that local governments should adopt diversified policy tools to optimize land resource utilization and reduce financial pressures, thereby mitigating the risks associated with land financialization [23][24]. - It emphasizes the need for companies to enhance their market pricing capabilities for bonds and improve their financial structures to counteract the adverse effects of land financialization [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This section is not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Q4 credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with greater potential pressure on the long - end [7]. - It is recommended to control duration for credit bonds, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable [7]. - For financial bonds, pay attention to participation opportunities in new - bond price discovery, and the trading difficulty of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is increasing [7]. - For general credit bonds, use short - duration as a shield and coupon as a spear to find structural opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Review: Supply Weak, Credit Follow - up Adjustment, Short - end Superior 3.1.1 Primary Market - In 2025Q3, the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly. The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased, while those of urban investment bonds increased. The issuance and net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the net financing of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds turned negative [15][20]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In Q3, credit bonds followed the adjustment of interest - rate bonds but did not over - adjust. The short - end performed better than the long - end. Yields generally increased, credit spreads at the 1 - year term narrowed, and those at the medium - and long - terms generally widened. Short - end rating spreads mostly widened, and medium - and long - end spreads narrowed. Term spreads generally widened, and the holding - period yield of the 1 - year term remained positive [25][28][36]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Spread Pricing of Various Products after the New VAT Regulations? 3.2.1 Impact of ChinaBond Valuation on Spread Calculation - Since August 8, 2025, the restoration of VAT on the interest income of government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds has different impacts on different institutions. The impact order is financial institutions' self - operation > public funds > other asset management products > qualified overseas investors [43]. - The compilation arrangement of ChinaBond bond valuation and yield curve during the transition period may affect the calculation results of credit spreads and term spreads [47]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - When new government - development bonds are issued, the credit spread center of general credit bonds may shift downward systematically, and the situation of financial bonds may be more complex. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [51][54]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads - When new financial bonds are issued, the term spread center of the corresponding new - issue term may increase in the short term and remain at a high level. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [57]. 3.3 Perspective of Institutional Behavior: Pay Attention to the Impact of Chip Switching on the Credit Bond Market 3.3.1 Public Funds - Due to the comparison of various asset classes and the new public fund fee regulations, the liability side of off - exchange bond funds faces significant challenges. The stock growth rate and proportion of bond - type funds have declined since July 2025, and funds may flow to bond ETFs, wealth management products, and special - account entrusted products. The demand structure of credit bonds may be reshaped [69][72]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Products - Near the end - of - year regulatory deadline for net - value smoothing rectification, wealth management products face greater valuation fluctuations and may be more cautious in bond - allocation behavior. Although their liquidity management ability has been enhanced, the real liquidity of credit bond ETFs may not meet their needs. In the short term, the expansion of wealth management scale faces pressure, but in the long term, the new public fund fee regulations may be beneficial to the expansion of wealth management scale [5]. 3.3.3 Changes in Credit Bond Allocation Behavior of Various Institutions - Recently, the chip - switching feature of credit bonds is obvious. The buying power of public funds has weakened, while wealth management products have become a stabilizer for credit bonds. Insurance has stronger demand support, and rural commercial banks prefer general credit bonds. Long - term credit may face re - pricing [5]. 3.4 Q4 Outlook: Pressure Remains, Short - end as Shield and Coupon as Spear - Credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust in Q4, with greater potential pressure on the long - end. It is recommended to control duration, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable. For financial bonds, pay attention to new - bond price discovery opportunities, and be cautious about Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For general credit bonds, look for structural opportunities in the primary market, urban investment bonds, high - grade private and perpetual bonds, and based on credit bond ETFs [7].

Core Insights - The credit bond secondary market showed significant recovery in September, with a layered risk preference in credit bond trading, indicating a trend of shortening duration for high-quality bonds and extending duration for low-quality bonds [1][3] - The total transaction amount in the bond secondary market for September reached 372,501.24 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.12% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% [1][3] Credit Bonds - In September, the transaction amount for credit bonds was 79,565.22 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.39% and a month-on-month increase of 6.87%, indicating a notable recovery in the credit bond market [3] - The transaction characteristics of credit bonds showed a preference for high-quality bonds with shorter durations, while low-quality bonds saw an extension in duration, particularly in the case of AA-rated municipal bonds [3][4] - The industrial bonds' transaction amount slightly decreased by 1.61%, while the municipal bond sector became a highlight with a month-on-month increase of 11.83%, demonstrating sustained market enthusiasm for municipal bonds amid ongoing debt resolution efforts [3] Credit Spread - The overall credit spread continued to show narrow fluctuations, with a year-on-year contraction of 26.29 basis points and a slight month-end decrease of 0.19 basis points [4] - As of September 30, the median credit spreads for various industries showed that household appliances, real estate, and electric equipment had higher spreads, while food and beverage, media, and public utilities had lower spreads [4] - The household appliances sector experienced the largest decline in credit spread this month, benefiting from new consumption stimulus policies, although it remains at a high level [4] Municipal Bonds - The overall credit spread for municipal bonds remained relatively stable, with slight fluctuations across regions, except for Gansu Province, which saw a significant widening of spreads, indicating higher risk premium demands from investors [5] - Regions like Guizhou, Yunnan, and Liaoning experienced notable narrowing of municipal bond spreads, exceeding 100 basis points, attributed to ongoing debt resolution policies and improved market confidence [5] Future Outlook - The expectation for the fourth quarter indicates a low-level fluctuation in trading spreads but with increasing structural differentiation, particularly in industrial and municipal bonds [6] - The industrial bond spreads are expected to have limited downward space due to most industries already being at relatively low levels, while high-spread sectors like household appliances and real estate may experience volatility due to policy changes and fundamental pressures [6] - The ongoing debt resolution policies are anticipated to remain the core driving force for municipal bonds, with most regional spreads expected to maintain low-level operations after narrowing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant fluctuations on October 14, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a supportive funding environment despite ongoing trade tensions and cautious market sentiment [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.11% [2]. - The yield curve for major interbank bonds shifted downward in the afternoon, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.752% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.37 basis points to 4.053% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 3.467%, while the German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.635% [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.38%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22 [4]. - The China Development Bank's 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had respective yields of 1.6085%, 1.7564%, and 2.0008%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.96, 4.03, and 4.94 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 910 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising slightly while the 7-day and 14-day rates fell, indicating a divergence in short-term funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions expect a neutral to slightly bullish bond market in October, with potential for a smoother decline post-December [6]. - Credit spreads are anticipated to remain volatile, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as the market adjusts to ongoing economic conditions [7].

Group 1 - The credit market experienced a recovery in the first week after the holiday, with yields on credit bonds across all maturities declining, particularly 2-5 year perpetual bonds leading the gains [1][8] - Long-term credit bonds continued to show weak performance, with credit spreads widening, especially for long-term urban investment bonds [1][8] - The market is currently assessing whether credit can continue to catch up with interest rates and if credit spreads will compress further [1][8] Group 2 - The recent tariff disturbances have led to increased market risk aversion, benefiting the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield declining approximately 16 basis points over two trading days [2][16] - Short-term credit bonds have generally outperformed interest rate bonds, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads, while longer credit bonds have shown weaker performance [2][16] - The impact of the recent tariff upgrades on the bond market appears to be weaker than earlier in April, with significant uncertainty remaining [2][24] Group 3 - The current tariff disturbances may provide trading opportunities in the bond market, but the overall pricing space is expected to be smaller than the previous tariff shocks [3][28] - The execution of credit strategies should consider the limited space for interest rate declines, with the 10-year government bond yield assessed at a low of 1.70% [3][28] - The credit market is expected to see some seasonal recovery in October, with public funds showing renewed buying interest in perpetual bonds [3][29] Group 4 - The funding environment remains supportive, but the main buying power in the credit market is unlikely to expand significantly in the fourth quarter due to regulatory factors [4][28] - The new regulations on fund sales may introduce redemption friction, impacting credit spreads [4][28] - Mid-term credit bonds are currently viewed as a more suitable asset choice for institutions, especially after the market correction in September [4][28]