按类型划分，利率债方面，11月成交金额214,422.16亿元，同比、环比分别增长9.81%、13.72%。信用 债方面，11月成交金额73,338.98亿元，同比减少3.40%、环比增加19.23%。 新华财经北京12月9日电 11月，债券二级市场交投氛围显著回暖，成交金额实现同比、环比双增长。产 业债和城投债成交久期呈现分化，产业债偏好1年以下短久期品种，城投债则向3-5年中长期限倾斜，高 等级债券仍是成交主力，市场信用风险偏好稳健。本月信用利差呈 V型震荡，月末收37.34bp，与上月 末基本持平。展望后市，信用利差将低位震荡，进一步收窄或大幅走阔空间有限。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场11月总成交金额340,656.40亿元，实现同比、环比双增长，增幅分别为 2.21%、14.62%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债和城投债交易金额均实现环比增长，市场流动性较前期有所改善。具 体来看，产业债成交金额环比增加16.81%，城投债成交金额环比增加12.74%。交易结构上，本月成交 的产业债和城投债在信用级别上与前期变动不大，高等级债券依旧是市场成交的主力品种，低评级债券 交投热度未出现明显波动，反映出当前市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors declined, with an overall change range of -6 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance amount of enterprise bonds increased, while that of other varieties decreased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with the net financing of enterprise bonds and commercial paper increasing, and that of other varieties decreasing. The net financing of enterprise bonds was negative, while that of other varieties was positive [2][13][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading amount of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The trading amounts of private placement notes and commercial paper increased, while those of other varieties decreased. The yields of credit bonds all increased in the current period. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds were differentiated, generally showing a widening at the short end and a narrowing at the medium - and long - ends [2][17][60]. - From the perspective of absolute returns, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of multiple factors, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in the credit bond market are still insufficient. In the long run, yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing positions during adjustments is still feasible. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of most varieties for allocation has decreased, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. The coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic in the current allocation thinking, and the trading thinking should remain optimistic. When selecting bonds, the focus should be on the trend of interest - rate bonds while paying attention to the coupon value of individual bonds. From the perspective of relative returns, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, the probability of a one - sided correction in the short term is also low. Therefore, investors can still achieve the coupon strategy through credit - quality downgrading and extending the duration according to their own capital characteristics, but they need to pay attention to the rhythm during allocation [2][60]. - The central and local governments have been continuously optimizing real estate policies. The support policies have been continuously strengthened, actively releasing rigid and improving housing demand, which has played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. Although the real estate market is still in the transition period between the old and new models, with the effectiveness of various policies to stabilize the property market, the real estate market is moving towards stabilization. In the future, policies to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market are expected. For real estate bonds, the sales recovery process will have a significant impact on bond valuations. As the market shows signs of stabilization, funds with higher risk appetite can consider early layout, especially focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The focus of allocation should still be on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Investors can extend the duration to increase returns and also appropriately play the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of undervalued real - estate enterprises [3][61]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default of urban investment bonds is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety of credit bonds. Under the strict supervision of promoting the clearance of local financing platforms in an orderly and effective manner, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms. From the perspective of coupon income, investors can be appropriately active. The allocation strategy can give priority to credit - quality downgrading at the medium - and short - ends, and the trading strategy can still choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [4][61][62]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), a total of 291 credit bonds, including enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes, were issued, with an issuance amount of 232.914 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 32.35%. The net financing of credit bonds was 54.159 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.974 billion yuan [13]. - By variety, 1 enterprise bond was issued, with an issuance amount of 1 billion yuan and a net financing of - 3.292 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.854 billion yuan. 110 corporate bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 75.694 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.20%, and a net financing of 17.749 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.128 billion yuan. 78 medium - term notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 61.583 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 62.30%, and a net financing of 14.611 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 81.694 billion yuan. 80 commercial papers were issued, with an issuance amount of 82.462 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%, and a net financing of 24.686 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.237 billion yuan. 22 private placement notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 12.175 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.73%, and a net financing of 405 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 709 million yuan [13]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors declined, with an overall change range of -6 BP to 2 BP. By tenor, the interest rate of 1 - year varieties changed from -6 BP to 1 BP, that of 3 - year varieties changed from -5 BP to 2 BP, that of 5 - year varieties changed from -5 BP to 0 BP, and that of 7 - year varieties changed from -3 BP to 0 BP. By rating, the interest rate of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties changed from -2 BP to 2 BP, that of AA + - rated varieties changed from -1 BP to 0 BP, that of AA - rated varieties changed from -3 BP to -2 BP, and that of AA - - rated varieties changed from -6 BP to -3 BP [15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - In the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the total trading amount of credit bonds was 817.532 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.60%. The trading amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 17.007 billion yuan, 317.964 billion yuan, 281.89 billion yuan, 144.869 billion yuan, and 55.802 billion yuan respectively. The trading amount of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The trading amounts of private placement notes and commercial paper increased, while those of other varieties decreased [17]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year notes widened, while those of 3 - year and 7 - year notes narrowed [20]. - For enterprise bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the 1 - year credit spread widened; among the 3 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA + - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; among the 5 - year bonds, the credit spreads of AAA - rated and AA - - rated varieties narrowed, while those of AA + - rated and AA - rated varieties widened; the 7 - year credit spread narrowed [27]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the 1 - year credit spread widened; among the 3 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA - - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; among the 5 - year bonds, the credit spread of AA + - rated varieties widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; the 7 - year credit spread narrowed [36]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed by 0.26 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2.87 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.94 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 32.1% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 23.6% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 29.0% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 2.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.0% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 3.7% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a low level, at the 1.0% quantile [44]. - For AA + enterprise bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread widened by 2.92 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.28 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.23 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 31.7% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 26.5% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 28.2% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year enterprise bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread remained the same as the previous period, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.7% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 6.1% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 1.5% quantile [50]. - For AA + urban investment bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed by 0.99 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.12 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.73 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 36.2% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 24.4% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a relatively low historical level, at the 30.1% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds widened by 1.99 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 0.99 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 0.01 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 10.1% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 5.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.8% quantile [53]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025) [58]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - In terms of bond defaults, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond defaults in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025). - In terms of bond extensions, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond extensions in the current period (December 1 - 7, 2025) [59]. 3.4 Investment Views - The views are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the analysis of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, the judgment of the credit bond market from the perspectives of absolute and relative returns, the analysis of the real estate market and real estate bonds, and the analysis of urban investment bonds [60][61][62].

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20251201-20251205） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 5 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 308 只， 发行规模总计 3395.35 亿元，环比减少 42.35%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 123 只，发行规模达 1149.26 亿元，环比 减少 62.74%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 33.85%；城投债共发行 152 只， 发行规模达 963.39 亿元，环比减少 18.53%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 28.37%；金融债共发行 33 只，发行规模达 1282.70 亿元，环比减少 20.96%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 37.78%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.66 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.49 年、城投债平均发行期限为 2.80 年、金融债平均发行期限为 2.6 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trading activity of bank perpetual bonds (二永债) has increased significantly in 2025, with daily transaction volumes and the proportion of these bonds in the overall credit bond market rising from 31% in 2024 to 39% in 2025 [1][21] - Major non-bank institutions, including funds, wealth management, insurance, and other asset management products, have increased their allocation to perpetual bonds, with net purchases reaching 325.8 billion, 386.5 billion, 43.2 billion, and 433.8 billion yuan respectively [1][21] - The demand for perpetual bonds may face pressure in 2026 due to structural impacts, particularly from new fund sales fee regulations that could lead to redemption pressures on short and medium-term bond funds [2][28] Group 2 - The net supply of perpetual bonds is expected to remain low, with state-owned banks showing stable issuance while smaller banks may continue to increase supply due to declining capital adequacy ratios [3][9] - The trading characteristics of perpetual bonds in 2025 show a "top and bottom" pattern in yield spreads, with slight downward adjustments in the 3-year and 5-year spreads, while the 10-year spreads have increased [4][11] - The trading environment for perpetual bonds has become more challenging, requiring institutions to engage in more frequent trading to enhance returns, especially as the yield spreads have narrowed [5][12] Group 3 - The performance of perpetual bonds has been differentiated, with short-term and low-grade bonds performing strongly while long-term bonds have lagged behind [16][17] - The insurance sector has shown a weaker demand for perpetual bonds in recent years, influenced by declining yields and the introduction of new accounting standards that affect the valuation of these bonds [37][38] - The overall market sentiment and trading dynamics for perpetual bonds are expected to be influenced by regulatory changes and market conditions, with potential opportunities arising from adjustments in fund management practices [28][33]

Group 1 - The global bond market is focusing on three main themes: European fiscal risks, a data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [1] - The European Central Bank warns of increasing sovereign debt supply pressure and a shrinking scale of central bank bond purchases, leading to rising interest rate risks [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December in the US has dropped from 95% to 50% due to government shutdown, creating policy uncertainty in the market [1] Group 2 - Major bond yields globally have generally declined, with US long-term yields falling more than short-term yields, exemplified by a 5.2 basis point drop in the 30-year yield [1] - The UK 10-year bond yield saw a significant drop of 9.34 basis points, leading declines in developed markets [1] - Credit spreads have compressed significantly, with investment-grade corporate bonds dropping by 11 basis points and high-yield bonds decreasing by 29 basis points to 6.58% [1] Group 3 - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 41, with a scale of 95.383 billion yuan, where central bank bills accounted for 47.2% of the issuance [2] - The overall issuance structure is dominated by bank financial bonds, with urban investment bonds' coupon rates concentrated in the 5-7% range [2] - Offshore RMB bonds show a flattening characteristic with short-end yields rising and long-end yields falling, while the sovereign bond 10-year spread narrowed from 8.95 basis points to 5.19 basis points [2] Group 4 - The global bond market is experiencing a stable credit environment with no major sovereign rating adjustments or systemic defaults [3] - The debt of high-risk US companies increased from $271 billion to $296 billion, a rise of 9.2%, indicating accumulating refinancing pressure [3] - The net outflow from high-yield bond funds was $333 million, and from leveraged loan funds was $89 million, indicating pressure on liquidity [3] Group 5 - The strategy suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-term bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve and rolling down yields, while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4] - The preferred regional allocation includes US investment-grade corporate bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, while caution is advised for European bonds [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - July 2025, credit spreads have been in a low - level oscillation pattern. The duration of the low - level credit spreads depends on interest rate trends and liquidity. The shift from low - level oscillation to widening is usually accompanied by rising interest rates and institutional behavior disturbances [15]. - During the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, different varieties perform differently. High - cost - effective varieties favored by institutions have larger compression amplitudes. The amplitude of credit spreads of each variety is not small, especially in longer periods, and the cost - effectiveness can be judged by the position of credit spreads in the oscillation range [23][24]. - In December, institutions still have the willingness to allocate assets in advance for the next year. If interest rates oscillate downward and the capital side is stable, it is conducive to maintaining the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, but the buying power of credit bonds usually weakens, which may restrict the market performance [27]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Spreads in the Low - Level Oscillation Period: How to Allocate 3.1.1 Credit Bonds: The Cost - Effectiveness of 3 - Year Varieties Increases - In November, interest rates were in a low - volatility oscillation and rose slightly. Credit bond yields generally increased, with high - rating varieties, 3 - year, and 10 - year bonds performing relatively weakly. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with 1 - year spreads basically unchanged, 3 - year spreads widening by 3 - 6bp, and spreads of AA+ and below 5 - year bonds narrowing by 5 - 8bp [11]. - The buying power of credit bonds weakened from strong to weak in November, and the proportion of transactions within 1 year continued to increase. Funds still had a large net purchase of credit bonds, while the net purchase of credit bonds by wealth management products, other asset management products, and money market funds decreased year - on - year [11][12]. - Since mid - July 2025, credit spreads have shown a low - level oscillation pattern. By reviewing the three previous periods of low - level credit spread oscillation since 2021, three rules were summarized. The duration of low - level credit spreads depends on interest rate trends and liquidity; different varieties perform differently during the low - level oscillation; and the amplitude of credit spreads in the low - level oscillation period is not small, and cost - effective varieties can be judged by their positions [15][23][24]. - In December, institutions still have the willingness to allocate assets in advance, but the decline in interest rates driven by transactions may be less than in previous Decembers due to the new regulations on fund sales fees. If interest rates oscillate downward and the capital side is stable, it is conducive to maintaining the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, but the buying power usually weakens [27]. - Currently, the credit spreads of 3 - year and 10 - year varieties have relatively high cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to control the duration of credit bond allocation and seize structural opportunities. In December, the opening scale of amortizing bond funds is still large, which may boost the demand for 2 - 3 - year credit bonds. For accounts with stable liability ends, they can pre - layout medium - to high - grade 5 - year varieties [32][35]. 3.1.2 Bank Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds: Wait for the New Regulations on Fund Sales Fees to be Implemented - In November, the yields of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds generally increased, with large - scale banks performing weaker. The spreads of large - scale bank bonds mostly widened, while the spreads of 4 - 5 - year AA - perpetual bonds narrowed. Compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term, large - scale bank bonds were generally oversold [39]. - Currently, bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds are waiting for the official release of the new regulations on fund sales fees. The trading sentiment of trading accounts is cautious, but the demand of some allocation accounts has increased. In December, due to the weak buying power of credit bonds and potential valuation fluctuations, accounts with unstable liability ends are advised to participate cautiously, while some accounts with stable liability ends can consider allocating medium - to high - grade varieties [40][44]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Declined Year - on - Year, and Ultra - Long - Term Bonds Performed Well - In November, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive, but both year - on - year and month - on - month declined. The issuance of medium - and long - term bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate generally decreased [47]. - The net financing performance of each province was differentiated in November, with about one - third of the provinces having negative net financing. The yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated performance, with medium - to high - grade varieties generally increasing and low - grade long - term varieties slightly decreasing [48][50]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds weakened in November, with the TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio both decreasing. The trading of medium - and long - term bonds was active in the first three weeks, and the trading proportion of AA(2) bonds increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Increased Significantly, and the Proportion of Medium - and Long - Term Issuance Rose - In November, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The issuance of medium - and long - term bonds increased, and the issuance interest rate generally decreased, with a larger decline in the 3 - 5 - year term [60][61]. - The yields of industrial bonds showed a differentiated performance, with medium - to high - grade yields generally increasing and 3 - 5 - year low - grade yields declining against the trend. The spreads of 3 - 5 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+ and AA widened, while the spreads of other varieties mostly narrowed [64]. - The yields of public bonds in various industries generally increased slightly. High - grade medium - and long - term varieties performed weaker, while the 3 - 5 - year AA yields generally declined [67]. 3.4 Bank Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds: Supply Increased, and Trading Sentiment Weakened - In November, the supply of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds increased significantly, with both issuance and net financing increasing year - on - year. The yields of these bonds generally increased, with large - scale bank medium - and long - term varieties performing weaker. The spreads of large - scale bank bonds mostly widened, and compared with medium - and short - term notes, some varieties performed weakly [70][72]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the number of transactions of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds increased significantly month - on - month, but the trading sentiment weakened. The TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds decreased, and the trading of urban commercial bank capital bonds also showed a weakening sentiment, with the trading of urban commercial bank perpetual bonds extending the duration [77].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 24 to November 28, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries generally rose [1] - The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market increased month - on - month, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes ranking in the top three in terms of trading volume [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - From November 24 to November 28, 2025, a total of 433 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 589.011 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. Among them, industrial bonds accounted for 52.37%, urban investment bonds accounted for 20.08%, and financial bonds accounted for 27.55% [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.80 years, with industrial bonds at 2.56 years, urban investment bonds at 3.19 years, and financial bonds at 2.41 years [1][13] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.16%, with industrial bonds at 2.09%, urban investment bonds at 2.29%, and financial bonds at 1.95% [2][18] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week, including 25ShaanxiJiaotongMTN012, 25JinnengMeiyeMTN019, etc. [22][23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The industry credit spreads generally rose this week. For example, among the Shenwan primary industries, the AAA - rated real estate industry's credit spread increased by 8.1BP, and the AA + - rated textile and clothing industry's credit spread increased by 15.4BP [3][24] - The credit spreads of coal showed mixed trends, while those of steel generally rose. The credit spreads of coal at the AAA, AA +, and AA levels increased by 3.3BP, 5.1BP, and decreased by 1.4BP respectively; the credit spreads of steel at the AAA and AA + levels increased by 5.5BP and 2.3BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds at all levels generally rose. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds at three levels increased by 2.4BP, 5.3BP, and 6.8BP respectively; the credit spreads of non - urban investment bonds at three levels increased by 4.4BP, 5.4BP, and 4.9BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises generally rose, while those of private enterprises showed mixed trends. The credit spreads of central state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 4BP, 5.1BP, and 4.2BP respectively; the credit spreads of local state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 3.3BP, 4.6BP, and 5.6BP respectively; the credit spreads of private enterprises at the AAA and AA + levels increased by 7BP and decreased by 0.1BP respectively [25] - The regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest credit spreads at the AAA, AA +, and AA levels were Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Guangxi respectively. In terms of month - on - month changes, Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang had the largest increases, while Yunnan had the largest decrease [26] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1499.033 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes [4][27] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report lists the top 20 actively traded urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds this week, including information such as bond codes, names, trading volumes, yields, and issuers [30][31][32]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the recent "28-point" ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump, which requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1][5][6] - The existing political system in Ukraine makes it difficult for many terms of the agreement to be implemented, and the neglect of Europe's strategic position creates uncertainty in future geopolitical situations [5][6] - The report suggests that the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains long and complicated, with limited room for further declines in oil prices driven by news in the short term [5][6] Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to see both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][7] - The report recommends a defensive strategy centered on short- to medium-term credit bonds, while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][7] - The supply side of the city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with financing remaining tight but gradually improving as platforms transition to industrial entities [7][9] Company Analysis: Li Auto-W (02015.HK) - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net profit loss of 620 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on performance [12][14] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs from a recall [12][14] - The company is restructuring its management model to focus on user value and efficiency, aiming to build a complete AI system for its vehicles, with expectations for significant performance improvements in future chip designs [12][14]

固收 信用：年末或有一定波动 20251125 摘要 摊余成本债基转向信用债投资，尤其集中在 3-5 年期普信债，推动信用 利差压缩至年内新低，但需考虑国开债切券的影响，实际利差空间已不 大。 摊余成本债基建仓仍在进行中，预计将持续支撑 3-5 年期信用债表现至 12 月底或明年 1 月，但二永债受流动性和定价逻辑影响，其比价未来大 概率回落。 12 月份市场波动性可能增加，历史数据显示四季度信用利差压降受政策 影响显著，今年年初至今利差已大幅压缩，需警惕流动性扰动。 当前信用债市场面临政策预期和资金面波动的不利因素，利差压降空间 有限，广普利率下行是关键，但年内整体利率下行难度较大。 短期信用债抗波动能力弱，性价比不高；中长期信用债虽有摊余成本债 基支撑，但需谨慎；超长期限信用债可考虑止盈，博弈未来货币政策宽 松。 若未来货币政策宽松，5 年以上中长期信用债或有反应，而 5 年以内中 短期信用债因已处低位，跟随速度可能较慢，压缩空间有限。 二永债比价优势明显，未来货币政策宽松或摊余成本建仓结束后，比价 回落可能带来收益，在票息和抗波动能力上优于 3-5 年普信债。 展望四季度末及 2026 年初，我们认为 ...