Summary of Conference Call on China CRRC's Financial Report Company and Industry - **Company**: China CRRC Corporation Limited - **Industry**: Railway Equipment and Transportation Core Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Outlook on Railway Equipment**: The company maintains a strong outlook on the railway equipment sector, particularly in the context of domestic infrastructure investment under the "internal circulation" strategy [1][2] 2. **Strong Performance Despite Market Conditions**: China CRRC achieved a notable stock price increase following the release of its financial report, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [2] 3. **Inventory and Contract Liabilities Growth**: The company's inventory and contract liabilities grew by 15% to 20%, while revenue growth was only 6%, attributed to the delivery cycle of railway equipment [3] 4. **High Repair Cycle**: The high repair cycle for railway vehicles is expected to lead to significant revenue recognition in the first half of 2025, as repairs typically have a short turnaround time [4] 5. **Profit Surpassing Expectations**: The company reported profits that exceeded expectations due to a faster growth rate in railway equipment, particularly in the high-margin passenger train segment, and a decrease in expense ratios [5] 6. **Stable Industry Demand**: The demand for new vehicles and high-level repairs remains strong, with an estimated order volume of approximately 17 billion for the last quarter of the previous year [6] 7. **Focus on Asset Quality Improvement**: The company is prioritizing stable profitability and asset quality improvement, with growth being a secondary focus [7] 8. **Future Revenue Projections**: The company anticipates stable performance in 2025, with a cautious outlook on growth rates, while 2026's performance will depend on this year's order volume [8] 9. **Replacement Cycle for Equipment**: The replacement cycle for locomotives is expected to contribute positively to revenue in 2025 and 2026, despite a potential decline in new passenger train orders [9] 10. **Long-term Profitability Potential**: The company aims to achieve profits exceeding 50 billion, driven by stable growth in the railway sector and new industries [10] 11. **Market Recovery Potential**: The company is seen as a stable growth asset, with potential for market recovery and an increase in market capitalization [13] 12. **Overall Industry Sentiment**: The railway equipment sector remains optimistic, with continuous growth in related industries and a stable demand outlook [14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The company is positioned well within the domestic market, with a growing customer base and increasing demand for high-level repairs, which could provide additional revenue streams [12] - **Valuation Considerations**: The current market valuation of the company is seen as attractive, especially in comparison to historical price-to-book ratios, indicating potential for future price appreciation [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is gradually recovering, with the overall A-share market down by 4.31%. The Sci-Tech 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 indices showed relative resilience, while the CSI 1000, micro-cap stocks, and ChiNext index led the decline. In terms of sector performance, consumer and financial real estate sectors were more resilient, while pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors faced declines [1][14]. - The report highlights the "counter-tariff" measures and the determination to stabilize the market in response to the U.S. tariffs. It notes that the Chinese government has taken rapid countermeasures to maintain a strong stance against U.S. tariff threats, which are characterized as "digital games" [3][33]. - The report emphasizes that the Chinese assets exhibit strong endogenous stability, and the impact of external market shocks may favor the return of foreign capital. It suggests that the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs should lead to a stable outlook rather than a reactive one [5][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the significant market fluctuations following the announcement of "counter-tariffs," leading to a "three-kill" scenario in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency. The S&P 500 index fell sharply, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a rapid decline before rebounding after the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation [4][42]. - The report outlines the measures taken by the "national team" to stabilize the market, including increased holdings in ETFs such as the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and others. The report notes that these actions are part of a broader strategy to support the capital market and restore investor confidence [3][50]. - The report identifies key investment directions, including domestic demand, independent innovation, countermeasures, the Belt and Road Initiative, dividends, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic circulation to mitigate the impact of export fluctuations [5][9].

我明确给了大家一则箴言：保持定力，坚守能力圈，放眼长期。什么意思呢？就是希望大家不要在这种 行情中迷失了自我，忘记了自己的初心。这是非常可悲的。 换算过来，就是不要频繁交易，这山望着那山高。否则，你铁定挨打，而且受伤程度还不轻。 上周，因为贸易摩擦等因素的影响，A股出现了大落小起的走势，很多人倒霉，也有人开心。 上周二、三慢慢进场之后，我的内心十分平静，并且告诉大家，耐心等待种子变大即可，不要慌里慌张 的。 连续几天都是笑哈哈！ 板块上： 第一：内循环板块持续上涨 今天打开软件，整车、家具、零售、自贸区等内循环板块持续上攻，对于国际贸易摩擦开始免疫了。 指数虽然大涨，但银行、证券涨了个寂寞，尤其是证券，明明是风向标板块，却搞成了反面教材。 人只有坚守自己的能力圈，赚自己看得懂的钱才能够持久。但上周的大幅波动，对于绝大多数散户来 说，就是致命的诱惑。 倘若你无法坚守自己的能力圈，那么被揍只是早晚的事情。 周末多个巨头也发布了协助外贸企业转内销的重大利好消息，助力经济转型。这都是前所有为的动作， 也是对经济的利好。 不过，我认为本质还是提高大家的收入，让大家有足够的实力消费。 第二：银行证券不是很给力 最后再重复 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation as a more controllable option for China, suggesting that the focus should be on domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a response to the uncertainties brought by the "reciprocal tariffs" initiated by the U.S. [5][6] - The high-purity quartz sector is highlighted as a leading area, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the potential increase in import costs due to tariffs, making long-term domestic substitution promising [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 2.4% while the overall market indices saw declines of 3.1% to 6.7% [9] - Notable stock performances included a 29.0% increase for Zhongqi New Materials and a 19.9% decrease for Jingxue Energy Saving [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 396.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/ton week-on-week, but an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [15] - The national cement inventory ratio is 60.2%, up 3.3 percentage points week-on-week [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1413.0 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/square meter, remaining stable week-on-week [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [45] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week [49] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tariff disputes initiated by the U.S. and their implications for the construction materials sector, highlighting the potential for increased domestic production and substitution [14] - The discovery of high-purity quartz mines in China is noted as a significant development that could reduce reliance on imports [14]

关注科技进步，观察人类生活。 来 源丨商隐社（ID：shangyinshecj） 作者丨浩然 图源丨midjourney 过去一周不断见证历史。 从北京时间4月3日开始，特朗普宣布了前所未有的、连无人的企鹅岛都未能幸免的所谓"对等关税"，随 后全球股市犹如从10楼跳下来，蒸发掉近10万亿美元市值。 上次股市出现这样的暴跌还是全球遭遇新冠时期，但特朗普似乎显得非常淡定和强硬，表示不会暂停关 税政策，同时他也表示，许多经济体的领导人正寻求与其谈判。 以下文章来源于商隐社 ，作者浩然 商隐社 . 性情多变的"超级大国"一号位让本就疲弱的全球经济和紧张的国际贸易变得更加扑朔迷离。 前几天英国首相斯塔默表示，世界已经改变，全球化时代已经结束，"我们所知道的世界已经不复存 在"。 国家间的经贸往来不会终结，但像过去那样大家能暂时搁置文化、制度、信仰的差异，专注于合作与赚 钱，跨越五大洲的全球自由贸易是真的结束了。 很多人纷纷猜测，这又是他惯用的"交易的艺术"——提出一个远高于预期的条件让对手无从下手并大肆 宣传，然后通过反复无常的变化给对手施加压力，最后给出次优条件让对手急于接受了事，从而达到最 初想要的结果。 想要的结 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a closing price of 2.21 yuan as of April 11, 2025, with no change in price, a turnover rate of 1.73%, a trading volume of 231,700 shares, and a transaction amount of 51.281 million yuan [1] - The company is benefiting from domestic circulation policies aimed at stimulating consumption and economic growth, creating a favorable external environment for business development [2][3] - The company is actively pursuing green and low-carbon transformation, with its logistics parks receiving top-level green warehouse certifications and the first zero-carbon park project in Shanghai gaining international recognition [4][5] Group 2 - The company collaborates with China Nuclear Technology to promote rooftop photovoltaic construction in its parks, contributing to high-quality development through green energy [6] - The company provides domestic warehousing and logistics services for cross-border e-commerce enterprises but does not directly engage in cross-border e-commerce activities [7] - On April 11, there was a net outflow of 2.6182 million yuan from main funds, a net outflow of 2.5899 million yuan from speculative funds, and a net inflow of 5.2081 million yuan from retail investors [8]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]

2025.04. 12 本文字数：1515，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胥会云 对于美国特朗普政府以解决贸易逆差之名发起的关税战，复旦大学经济学院院长张军表示，正是贸易 不平衡，才维持了美国长达半个世纪的货币和金融霸主地位。换句话说，贸易不平衡本身不是问题， 而是答案。 在4月11日复旦大学经济学院举行的名为"特朗普的'对等关税'政策及其可能的影响"的沙龙上，张军表 示，对美国来说，如果要贸易平衡，就要失去更多，付出更大的代价。近期金融市场和美元指数的变 化也表明，这只会扰乱现有的秩序，导致混乱和不确定性的增加，也已经干扰了美元汇率。 "但我不相信美国人真的愿意付出这个代价。"张军说。 对中国而言，张军认为，中国有着超14亿人口、超4亿中等收入群体的超大规模市场，有更多机会来 处理需求的问题，来破解制造业国家的发展约束。中国也需要尽可能释放国内潜在的消费需求，形成 一个支撑内循环的总需求，让企业和投资者在国内市场有可以预期的稳定回报率和利润率。 如何看待中美贸易不平衡 张军认为，这种贸易不平衡并不代表贸易擂台上的输赢，而是两个国家在其它很多方面拥有的巨大差 异的写照。 比如，根植于自然禀赋、文化基 ...

PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 核心资产将迎来新周期 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。 图片来源：摄图网 聚焦核心资产 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 杨帆 玛西高娃 崔嵘 遥远 关税进展仍有不确定性，但衰退预期交易正加速切换到衰退交易，中美周期同频时点可能提前。风格上， 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。配置上，短期建议聚焦自主可控、军工、内需、红利四大方向，长期建议关注 全球各国制造业重建需求与中国技术出海的趋势。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 点击查看全文 外部扰动期，关注内循环 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 美国"对等关税"加征幅度和广度超预期之后，中国对美反制力度明显升级，外循环扰动加大，市场风险偏好 下降，建议关注内循环为 ...

作者：陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 随着关税冲击后市场的逐步企稳，当前我们正进入从稳市场到稳经济的接续阶段。 稳市场的 " 先手棋 " 效果立竿见影，接下来做好稳经 济的接续同样重要， 这就需要储备政策尽早与市场 " 见面 " ，否则经济下行压力的显现将造成二次风险 。而关于如何稳经济，从近期国 家层面一系列会议的频繁召开中已初见端倪。 围绕总理所说的 " 有充足的储备政策工具 " ，我们认为后续政策端有如下线索： " 打铁还需自身硬 " ：关税乱局下，稳经济更需要构建 " 内循环 " 的明确指引。 在外部不确定性加剧的背景下，两会提出的 " 投资于人 " 含金量还在攀升 —— 短期来看内需修复是稳定经济基本面的关键一环，长期来看 " 内循环 " 的构建更是一项经济战略调整。 我们认为接 下来政策将向两个方向发力、促进内需的企稳： 一方面，既有政策进一步加力扩容。 比如 加力实施城中村改造、推进货币化安置 ，不仅可以加快形成更多实物工作量，同时还能惠及更 多居民。再如 去年颇有成效的"两新"、已在部分地区落地的生育津贴 ，都将成为今年财政促消费的重要路径。 增量的储备政策，可能包括再贷款、财政贴息、减税降费等。 20 ...