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薛洪言:突破4000美元/盎司,黄金牛市能否延续?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 01:33
意见领袖 | 薛洪言 2025年10月7日,COMEX黄金价格首次站上4000美元/盎司整数关口,再创历史新高。回顾年内走势, 金价自年初2758美元/盎司起步,在连续上涨四个月后,经历了为期三个月的小幅调整;8月市场重启升 势,9月单月涨幅达10.57%,创下本轮行情以来的最大月度涨幅;进入10月后,金价延续涨势并突破 4000美元/盎司关键关口,截至目前年内累计涨幅已超47%。 就8月启动的本轮上涨行情看,美联储货币政策转向构成了最直接的推动因素——8月美国非农就业仅新 增2.2万人(远低于预期的7.5万人),失业率升至4.3%,制造业PMI连续6个月萎缩,这一系列数据迫使 美联储在9月启动年内首次降息,点阵图更预示年内或累计降息75个基点。而10月1日美国联邦政府停摆 事件进一步加剧了市场恐慌,市场担忧停摆可能导致经济数据延迟发布,叠加凯雷集团估算9月非农就 业新增仅1.7万人(远低于预期的5.4万人),进一步强化了美联储10月降息的预期,对金价形成有力支 撑。 与此同时,地缘政治风险的多点爆发持续推升全球避险需求。2025年9月9日,以色列对卡塔尔多哈发动 精准打击,将冲突延伸至这一能源枢纽,进一步加 ...
中信证券:港股上行动能延续,把握四大中长期方向
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 01:02
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that abundant liquidity and ongoing investments in AI are the two main drivers behind the sustained rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "wealth effect" in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue attracting southbound capital inflows [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, could lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] - The ongoing capital expenditure by domestic and international companies in the AI sector, along with continuous iterations and innovations in large models and applications, may lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - After six months of valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is considered not cheap [1] - However, with fundamentals expected to bottom out and a significant increase in earnings projected for 2026, Hong Kong stocks still hold considerable attractiveness on a global scale [1] - The report predicts that the long bull market for Hong Kong stocks since early 2024 will continue, driven by liquidity spillover effects and sustained AI narratives [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four key long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which is expected to see valuation recovery amid further domestic economic recovery [1]
黄金攻破4000美元之际:全球央行正迅速撤离美债?
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-10-09 00:57
智通财经10月9日讯(编辑 潇湘)就在国际金价近日历史性升破4000美元/盎司大关之际,由纽约联储代为 托管的全球央行美国国债持仓规模,也罕见地跌至了十余年来的最低点,这再次引发了外界关于美国主 权债务及其他美元资产对外国投资者吸引力下滑的猜测…… 事实上,这一数据对不少市场人士而言可能有些意外——因为近期发布的数据,包括美国财政部国际资 本报告(TIC)和国际货币基金组织"Cofer"外汇储备报告在内,都显示海外对美债及美元资产的需求依然 强劲。 TIC和Cofer报告堪称是衡量美国资本流动和全球外汇储备变化的权威标准。但问题是,它们发布有很长 的滞后性——最新的TIC数据是7月份的,而最新的Cofer数据反映的则还是第二季度的情况。 Barrow周一写道:"这些托管持仓下降如此之快,这一事实可能是一个迹象,表明近几个月来海外央行 对美债市场以及美元的青睐程度已经下降。" 值得注意的是,过去一年半上述纽约联储托管的峰值2.95万亿美元,出现在今年3-4月——恰逢美国总 统特朗普"解放日"关税混乱引发市场剧烈波动之前。根据这一即时指标,外国央行似乎从那时起对美国 国债的热情已经降温。 而考虑到近来国际金价如野 ...
现货黄金涨破4000美元,ETF规模已激增逾千亿,后市机会还有多少?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:41
国庆假日期间,黄金"杀疯了"。 10月8日,伦敦现货黄金"并不太意外地"在美国政府的关门声中,突破了每盎司4000美元大关。截至10 月8日, 现货黄金价格一度触及4050美元/盎司的历史新高。 智通财经记者 | 韩理 有意思的是,突破关键心理价位的黄金,转而激发了其余贵金属资产的做多情绪,令黄金反而成为了日 内表现"最差"的贵金属相关品种。 行情显示,截至10月8日22:00时,现货铂金价格上涨超3.36%;现货白银,现货钯金分别上涨2.32%和 7.59%。黄金关联资产中,黄金股赤峰黄金(06693.HK)港股日内收涨超13.26%,老铺黄金 (06181.HK)收涨超5.91%。 "因美国国会未能通过临时拨款法案,导致联邦政府部分机构暂停运转,对美国经济形成拖累。"华安基 金分析称。 华安基金还从中期和长期阐释了黄金上涨的原因。 从中期的交易节奏看,华安基金认为,美联储在9月开启降息,根据历史经验,黄金在降息周期中,能 够有效应对美元走弱和美债利率走低。而在长期逻辑中,去美元化和央行购金节奏的持续是推动黄金上 涨的原因。近三年涌现出包括——发展中国家央行、国内保险资金、亚洲地区ETF资金的配置需求,导 ...
中信建投:谁在主导这轮黄金新高?沪金溢价由正转负,西方ETF资金主导
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-10-09 00:40
核心观点 黄金地表库存的结构可以看到,金融需求占比虽然小,但波动剧烈,主导黄金价格的趋势变化。非金融需求尽管占比较大,但对黄金价格多起到 支撑但不决定趋势。 为捕捉黄金价格趋势波动,我们提供三个高频跟踪维度刻画完整的黄金投资者画像,以此全面追踪8月以来黄金金融需求的资金流动。 跟踪维度一,ETF区域结构拆分。西方市场重新主导ETF流入,直接映射黄金的宏观定价主线,已经从 "去美元化"叙事转向对降息路径的关注。 跟踪维度二,COMEX黄金期货仓位。当前COMEX"快钱"资金的持仓和金价存在一定脱节。 跟踪维度三,区域价差变化。沪金溢价由正转负,纽伦溢价常态性回归。前者指向非美地区投资降温,后者辅助论证期货"热钱"或仍处在观望的 局面。 摘要 黄金市场的参与者广泛分布于不同的需求领域,包含金饰和科技用金、央行购金、金融投资、零售金条和金币投资,这些市场参与者的动机远比 单一指标或者单一理论论证的更为广泛。 黄金地表库存的结构可以看到,金融需求占比虽然比较小,但波动剧烈,主导黄金价格的趋势变化。非金融需求尽管占比较大,但对黄金价格多 起到支撑但不决定趋势。 为捕捉黄金价格趋势波动,我们试图刻画完整的黄金投资者画像, ...
中信证券:港股2024年初以来的长牛行情将延续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September is driven by abundant liquidity and ongoing investments and innovations in AI [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks due to the "wealth effect" [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, may lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Increased capital expenditure in the AI sector by domestic and international companies is anticipated to lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] - Despite a six-month valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not cheap, but the fundamentals are expected to rebound [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which may see valuation recovery with further domestic economic recovery [1]
中国资产吸睛又吸金!|“双节”消费新图景
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-09 00:20
Group 1: Gold Market Performance - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, international gold prices surged, with New York futures gold breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time, up over 50% year-to-date [1][3] - The price of gold jewelry in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market rose from approximately 796 yuan per gram in early September to 926 yuan per gram by October 8, reflecting a significant increase of 130 yuan [1][2] - Consumer demand for gold jewelry remained strong despite rising prices, particularly during the traditional wedding season in September and October, with many consumers exhibiting a "buy high, sell low" mentality [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends in Chinese Assets - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index reached a five-year high of 8945 points during the holiday, with a year-to-date increase of 40%, indicating strong performance of Chinese stocks [6][7] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly figure since November 2024, reflecting renewed confidence in Chinese assets [6][7] - Major foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered, expressed optimism about Chinese stocks, particularly in the technology sector, with significant target price increases for companies like Alibaba and Tencent [7][8] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market experienced a promotional peak during the holiday, with developers offering significant discounts and incentives to boost sales, particularly in core cities [9][10] - In Shenzhen, new housing policies led to a notable increase in sales, with some projects selling nearly three times the number of units compared to the previous month [10][11] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by developers' efforts to meet annual sales targets and supportive government policies [11][12] Group 4: Robotics and Rental Market Growth - The popularity of robot performances during the holiday season has significantly boosted the rental market, with high demand for robot rental services leading to a doubling of inquiries compared to normal periods [13][15] - The rental prices for robots have seen dramatic fluctuations, with some prices dropping from 20,000 yuan per day to 6,000 yuan, indicating a need for business model optimization in the sector [16][15] - The long-term growth of the robot rental market is expected to depend on expanding application scenarios beyond entertainment, such as industrial inspections and medical assistance [15][16]
国信证券:未来黄金怎么看?
智通财经网· 2025-10-09 00:17
智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,综合长期逻辑与短期因素,当前黄金市场的支撑体系依然稳固。长期而言,全球货币信用体系重构、去美元化 趋势、各国央行持续购金以及供需结构性失衡等因素构成了黄金上涨的核心支撑,这一支撑体系在未来2-3年内难以发生根本性改变,因此黄金的长期牛 市趋势仍将延续。短期来看,9月份以来的上涨动能虽有所释放,但美联储宽松周期的延续、地缘政治风险的常态化以及市场投资需求的持续流入,仍将 推动金价维持高位震荡偏强的格局。 事项: 9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨,至北京时间10月7日晚间,伦敦现货黄金逼近4000美元/盎司。 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产,其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上 涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性,当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时,黄金往往成为市场的 "压舱石"。当前,这一逻辑正得到充分验证,主 要体现在两个方面: 国信证券主要观点如下: 2025年以来,国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步,一路 ...
中国资产吸睛又吸金!|“双节”消费新图景
证券时报· 2025-10-09 00:08
"双节"假期期间中概股表现出色,科技股再次成为海外投资者关注的重点。港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数同样在长假期间创下5年新高。外资机构 表示,全球投资者对中国资产的兴趣明显增加。 "长假过去,黄金一克涨了38元!" 国庆中秋长假初期,证券时报记者走访深圳水贝市场发现,金饰价格已经达到每克888元。与此对比的是,9月初水贝市场的金饰价格在每克796元左右。而到了 10月8日,水贝市场的金饰价格已经攀升到每克926元。 "我们也没想到金价越涨越高。"一位水贝市场金饰柜台的负责人表示,"留深和来深过节的人越来越多,最近几天来买黄金的顾客就有不少是来深旅游的外地游 客,每年9月、10月是传统婚庆旺季,也是婚庆金饰购买的高峰期,婚庆金饰是'刚需',而且大多数消费者都是买涨不买跌的心理,所以生意暂时还没有受到高金 价的影响。不过,还是有一些消费者处于观望状态,毕竟金价的涨势太猛了"。 也有消费者表示"后悔",自己一直抱着观望心态,但没想到金价再度迅速走高。"一个长假过去,一克黄金就涨了38元。" 有银行工作人员对记者表示,最近一段时间积存金业务的咨询量大增。相较于黄金期货投资,各大银行的积存金投资更为稳定。"客户在银行的积存 ...
金市楼市股市畅旺 中国资产吸睛又吸金
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-08 23:45
Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices have surged, with New York futures surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50% [4][6] - The price of gold jewelry in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market rose from approximately 796 yuan per gram in early September to 926 yuan per gram by October 8, reflecting a significant increase of 130 yuan [4][5] - Consumer demand for gold remains strong despite rising prices, particularly during the traditional wedding season in September and October, with many buyers exhibiting a "buy high, not low" mentality [5][6] Group 2: Investment Trends in Chinese Assets - During the recent holiday period, major overseas stock markets, including Japan, South Korea, and the US, reached historical highs, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index hitting a five-year high of 8945 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 40% [8][9] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly figure since November 2024, indicating a renewed confidence among global investors in Chinese assets [8][9] - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor and AI-related companies, has become a focal point for foreign investment, with significant target price increases for major firms like Alibaba and Tencent [9][10] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The recent holiday period saw a notable increase in new home sales, particularly in Shenzhen, where promotional strategies led to a significant uptick in transactions [12][14] - Developers are actively offering discounts and incentives to stimulate sales, with some projects reporting sales that are three times higher than the previous month [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is optimistic, with expectations for a stronger fourth quarter driven by both developer promotions and favorable government policies [14] Group 4: Robotics and Rental Market Growth - The demand for robot rentals has surged, particularly during the holiday season, with many rental platforms reporting full bookings for robot performances [18][20] - The rise in interest for robotic performances is enhancing public awareness and interest in robotics, potentially leading to sustained growth in the rental market [20][21] - Despite a cooling off from the initial frenzy, the robotics rental market is expected to evolve towards more practical applications beyond entertainment, such as industrial inspections and medical assistance [21]