Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current macro data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market for various commodities shows different trends due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [6][9] - Different commodities have different market outlooks and investment strategies, including maintaining caution, waiting and seeing, looking for low - position buying opportunities, etc. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 16, with a net investment of 88.8 billion yuan [5] - **Economic Data**: From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3%, service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [5] - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure in the future market, and it is necessary to remain cautious [6][7] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.06%, - 0.26%, - 0.62%, and - 0.21% respectively [8] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved initial consensus. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iranian situation is highly uncertain, and market volatility is expected to increase significantly [9] - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold an empty position and wait and see [10] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,118.34 with a decline of 1.29%, and the silver main contract closed at 20,301 with a decline of 2.97% [11] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. But due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility will increase [11] - **Strategy**: Keep waiting and seeing [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 - 3280 yuan/ton [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing year - on - year. In the medium - term, it is entering the peak demand season. Supply pressure is reduced, and inventory changes are worthy of attention [14] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. PB powder port spot price is 795 yuan/ton, and super special powder is 675 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. After the key meeting, iron ore demand may expand, but the supply in the first two months increased by 10% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [16] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated [18] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may expand after the key meeting [18] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.77% to 6162 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 1.21% to 5872 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The output of ferroalloys is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, but the supply is still loose, and inventory is accumulating [20] - **Strategy**: Consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities after a rapid short - term price rebound [22] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the expansion of the US - Israel - Iran war and the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz [23] - **Market Data**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The Iranian parliament said that Ukraine has become a legitimate target for Iran [23] - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. Although the Iranian oil export is not affected and the tension between the US and Iran seems to ease, the prospect of global oil supply shortage still exists [24] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market fluctuated higher, and the Yuyao LLDPE price rose 50 - 150 yuan/ton [26] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.52%. In the long - term, imports may decrease in April, but new domestic and foreign production facilities are planned to be put into operation, and supply pressure will be gradually released. Downstream demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious purchasing" [26] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long opportunities [27] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.60%, and the price of Shandong mainstream butadiene rubber was adjusted down to 15200 - 15400 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The production cost of butadiene has soared, and some devices are planned for maintenance. The supply of butadiene rubber is high, and demand is in the recovery stage. The cost is seriously inverted, and inventory is turning to destocking [28][29] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [30] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.71%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract fell 0.44%. The Shanghai spot whole - latex price was stable at around 16800 yuan/ton [31] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. Inventory is still in the accumulation stage, but the accumulation rate may slow down [31] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation (supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short - term, focusing on inventory destocking and demand recovery in the medium - term) [31] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.09%, and the spot price in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the concerns about energy and raw material supply due to overseas geopolitical conflicts and the start of domestic spring demand. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, demand is gradually starting but at a low seasonal level, the cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and inventory is in the accumulation stage [32][33] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [34] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.32%, and the Shandong Linyi spot price was 1890 yuan/ton [35] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the global urea supply disturbance caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and domestic spring plowing demand. Supply is stable, demand is released intensively, cost is stable, and inventory is decreasing [35] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [36] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 0.47% and fell 3.8% at night [37] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, PX load decreased, downstream polyester and terminal start - up are gradually increasing. Supply may be tightened due to plant shutdowns and spring inspections, and it is expected to enter the destocking channel [37] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, and consider cautious low - position operations, paying attention to oil price changes and situation development [37] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.32% and fell 3.25% at night. The processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, demand load increased, and the 3 - month supply - demand expectation may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side, and the geopolitical situation is uncertain [38] - **Strategy**: Consider cautious operations, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 3.31% and fell 2.76% at night [39] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, imports are expected to decrease, and inventory is expected to be destocked. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the geopolitical situation is highly uncertain [39] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the Strait, and the subsequent elasticity depends on the spring inspection rhythm and demand fulfillment [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract rose 0.94% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load increased, downstream terminal start - up increased, raw material inventory decreased, and the cost side is strong but there is a risk of high - level correction [40] - **Outlook**: Trade based on the cost side in the short - term, and pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.44% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Many bottle - chip manufacturers stopped selling and cut contract volumes, inventory decreased sharply, supply is expected to shrink, demand increased, and the cost side is strong [41] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly following the cost side, with increased volatility, and consider cautious low - position participation, paying attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Soda ash production increased slightly, inventory decreased slightly, downstream demand is average, and the profitability of associated alkali manufacturers improved [42] - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is not significant, and the market sentiment fluctuates. Pay attention to risk control [43] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, down 2.74% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production lines decreased, inventory decreased slightly, demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak [44] - **Outlook**: The long - short game intensifies after the price reaches a relatively high level. Pay attention to position control and follow - up changes in the Middle - East situation [44] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, down 0.62% [45] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased, some manufacturers may have maintenance plans in March, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may affect overseas production and increase China's export advantage [45][46] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [46] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5232 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [47] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic production may decrease due to maintenance, port inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [47][48] - **Outlook**: The downstream demand recovery is slow, and the follow - up to the price increase is insufficient [48] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.75% to 159620 yuan/ton [49] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the global lithium resource balance is being reshaped. Supply may be in a tight balance, and demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Inventory is gradually decreasing [49] - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of the Zimbabwean embargo and the US - Iran geopolitical situation [49] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100190 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [50] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the US dollar is strong, and the macro - level pressure is significant. The mine end is tight, and the supply in March is expected to reach a record high, with high inventory. Downstream demand has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly [50][51] - **Outlook**: Weak - side oscillation [52] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24970 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2989 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects overseas production, and supply tightening is expected. Domestic downstream consumption has recovered, and inventory changes are different [53] - **Outlook**: Strong - side operation [54] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23880 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic supply increased, overseas supply is disturbed, demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the actual recovery is uncertain, and inventory is increasing [55][56] - **Outlook**: Pressured oscillation [57] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16405 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The start - up of primary lead enterprises increased, the resumption of secondary lead is slow, and lead - battery enterprises have fully resumed work. However, geopolitical risks affect exports, and inventory is increasing [58] - **Outlook**: Pressured adjustment [59] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.43% to 381840 yuan/ton [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the supply situation is complex. The supply shortage has eased,

2026 年 3 月 17 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1121.50 | 1118.340 | 20301 | 20380 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1135.90 | 1133.000 | 20923 | 21103 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -14.40 | -14.660 | -622 | -723 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -1.27% | -1.29% | -2.97% | -3.43% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 144912 | 94528 | 216658 | 78920 | | | | 成交量 | 102459 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although there are short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic remains intact [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 532.80, 529.45, and 525.95 respectively, with decreases of - 19.25, - 21.10, and - 24.75 compared to the previous closing prices, and the decline rates are - 3.49%, - 3.83%, and - 4.49% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 398.55, 397.60, and 393.80 respectively, with decreases of - 17.60, - 14.50, and - 19.45 compared to the previous closing prices, and the decline rates are - 4.23%, - 3.52%, and - 4.71% respectively [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest for platinum and palladium futures is 12856 and 4361 respectively, and the trading volumes are 6410, 177, 25 for platinum futures and 3041, 86, 104 for palladium futures [1] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount for platinum futures are - 4.15, - 0.8, 2.7, and for palladium futures are - 8.55, - 7.6, - 3.8 [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 528.65 yuan/gram, 2118.00 dollars/ounce, 798.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The price changes are - 12.70, 41.00, - 51.00, and 0.00 respectively, and the change rates are - 0.023%, 0.020%, - 0.060%, and 0.000% respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 390.00 yuan/gram and 4200.66 rubles/gram respectively, with price changes of - 10.00 and - 34.56 and change rates of - 0.025% and - 0.008% respectively [1] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.08, - 3.35, - 6.85, 1.01, and - 0.95 respectively, and the previous values are 1.35, 0.26, - 3.45, - 6.40, 3.15, and 4.00 respectively [1] Inventory - **Platinum and Palladium Inventory**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 582,440.79 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 313,567.94 ounces, the Shanghai Gold Exchange turnover is 19,668.18 ten - thousand yuan, and the trading volume is 372.00 kilograms. The current NYMEX palladium inventory is 200,716.01 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts are 164,229.68 ounces. There is no change in inventory compared to the previous value [1] Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.80, 6,699.38, 4.23, 22,374.18, 46,946.41, and 6.91 respectively, with changes of - 0.70, 67.19, - 0.05, 268.82, 387.94, and 0.00 respectively compared to the previous values [1] - **Precious Metal Derivatives**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1118.34, 1121.50, 1124.70 respectively, with decreases of - 14.66, - 14.40, - 14.06 compared to the previous closing prices. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 20380.00, 20301.00, 20249.00 respectively, with decreases of - 723, - 622, - 598 compared to the previous closing prices [1] Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Events**: Military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Changes**: US President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected, and the nomination process and subsequent policy independence are uncertain [2][4] - **Fed Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift towards a "stagflation" trading mode, with high oil prices exacerbating global inflation concerns and liquidity tightening, which suppresses market risk appetite [10][12]. - The overall market experienced a decline of 0.48% during the week, with the ChiNext Index and CSI Dividend leading gains, while CSI 500 and STAR 50 faced losses [2][10]. - The report highlights that the stock-bond yield spread has increased to 0.4%, indicating a divergence in market valuations, with a rising valuation dispersion coefficient [21][22]. Group 2 - Market sentiment has improved, with the sentiment index rising by 2.9% to 47.0, although industry rotation strength has decreased, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks [22][30]. - The report notes a decrease in market volume, with significant bullish stocks in banking, coal, and electric equipment sectors, while steel, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals may present alpha opportunities [30][36]. - The average daily trading amount of the Stock Connect decreased by 337.22 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with net inflows of leveraged funds primarily into electric equipment, basic chemicals, and public utilities [36][50]. Group 3 - Industry highlights include Tencent's nationwide installation plan for "Dragon Claw" and the debut of Qianwen AI glasses, indicating a competitive landscape in AI technology [46][47]. - The successful launch of 20 low-orbit satellites for satellite internet marks a significant advancement in China's satellite internet development, which is now included in the national government work report [48]. - The report emphasizes the need to focus on price increases and safety in the context of geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [50].

文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 美国202 6年初对委内瑞拉、近期对伊朗的军事行动，目标是维护石油美 元 体 系 及 全 球 霸 权 地 位 。 当 前 美 元 面 临 三 重 挑 战 ， 能 源 国 去 美 元 化 尝 试、 黄金储备 多元化 趋 势 、加 密 货币 技术 革新 。若 美国 在伊 朗陷 入 持久 战，或将加速 美元 霸权 地位的 衰落，推动国际货币体系重构 。 美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的 军事行动 据新华社报道， 2026年1月3日凌晨，美国总统特朗普证实，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，并抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。特朗普称，美国将"管 理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。委内瑞拉外长希尔3月5日表示，委内瑞拉和美国政府通过外交对话，双方已决定恢复外交和领事关系。 2026年2月28日， 美军与以军联合对伊朗发动代号为"史诗怒火"的大规模空袭与导弹打击。 伊朗多家媒体3月1日证实，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在美国和以 色列对伊朗的袭击中身亡。 与委内瑞拉不同， 伊朗 发起激烈 反击 ， 并 封锁 了 霍尔木兹海峡 ， 导致全球 油价暴涨 。 美国维护石油美元的逻辑 控制能源命脉 。 委内瑞拉拥有全球最大石 ...

Key Insights - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive due to persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, supported by global central bank gold purchases [4][9] - Tactical timing for gold in 2026 should focus on U.S. debt cycle changes and volatility indicators, as these factors may influence gold price movements [4][9] Group 1: Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - The core driver of gold price increases since 2022 has been the widening supply-demand gap, primarily due to a significant rise in demand, particularly from central banks [4][12] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, especially from countries like China, where the gold reserve ratio is significantly below the global average [27][30] - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, has shown a notable recovery since 2025, with Asian markets contributing significantly to this growth [34][37] Group 2: Tactical Timing and Market Indicators - Short-term tactical timing for gold should consider geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, and its impact on market volatility [4][9] - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices remains relevant, with expectations that 10-year Treasury yields will rise in response to geopolitical tensions, potentially affecting gold's upward trend [4][53] - Current market conditions indicate that gold's implied volatility is high, suggesting that prices may experience fluctuations as the market digests this volatility [4][53] Group 3: Long-term Price Projections - Quantitative models suggest that if central banks and ETFs maintain their purchasing intensity from 2025, gold prices could approach $5,800 per ounce in 2026, with optimistic scenarios exceeding $6,000 [4][40] - The primary factors influencing gold pricing include supply-demand dynamics, U.S. fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty, and real yields on 10-year Treasuries [4][10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 交易叙事或仍围绕油价，贵金属料震荡为主 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-3-16 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周美伊冲突持续且暂无缓和迹象，油价维持高位运行，通胀风险上升继续削弱美联储年内降 息预期，美元指数走强突破100关口，贵金属价格继续承压。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美 伊冲突仍在持续且暂无缓和迹象：伊朗新任领袖发表强硬声明、霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭、美媒 称美正向中东增派海军陆战队和军舰、特朗普宣布对伊朗石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛发动空袭等表 明美伊冲突尚无缓和迹象，甚至有进一步升级的风险。在此背景下，贵金属市场持续交易"冲 突持续——油价上涨——通胀上行风险增加——美联储降息预期削弱——美元指数、美债收益 率走强"这一逻辑，因此金银价格受到较为显著的压制。另一方面，美元指数的走强还源于此 次能源危机对欧洲、日本造成的影响更大，非美货币走弱被动抬升美元指数， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the logic of "rising oil prices, increasing inflation risks, and weakening rate - cut expectations" dominates and may continue to suppress precious metal prices. The focus should be on the progress of the Middle East geopolitical situation and oil price trends. In the long run, with the probability of Fed rate - cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the wave of de - dollarization, the demand for precious metal allocation by global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $5086.36/ounce, down 1.5% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $82.68/ounce, down 3.8%. COMEX gold was at $5091.00/ounce, down 1.5%; COMEX silver was at $82.75/ounce, down 4.0%. AU2604 was at 1133 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG2604 was at 21103 yuan/kg, down 5.0%. AU (T + D) was at 1131.30 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG (T + D) was at 20860 yuan/kg, down 4.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram, with a change of - 19.0%; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 243 yuan/kg, with a change of - 38.6%. The gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.83 yuan/gram, with a change of 217.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 117 yuan/kg, with a change of - 54.0%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 53.69, with a change of 3.9%; the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 61.53, with a change of 2.5% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF and COMEX Positions**: As of March 13, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1071.56 tons, down 0.40% from the previous day; the silver ETF - SLV was 15460.18069 tons, down 0.51%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in gold were 215445 contracts, up 0.79%; non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, down 2.41%; non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts, up 1.87%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in silver were 33306 contracts, down 2.69%; non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, down 19.84%; non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts, up 5.31% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On March 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105417.00 kg, with a change of 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory was 326566.00 kg, up 5.35%. COMEX gold inventory was 32551562 troy ounces, down 0.32%; COMEX silver inventory was 341723209 troy ounces, down 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On March 13, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, up 0.07%. The US dollar index was 100.50, up 0.77%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.73%, down 0.80%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, up 0.23%. The VIX was 27.19, down 0.37%; the S&P 500 was 6632.19, down 0.61%; NYMEX crude oil was $99.31, up 3.03% [3]. 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On March 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.33% to 1133 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.19% to 20923 yuan/kg [3]. - **Influence Analysis**: Trump's announcement of an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, the unresolved geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and high oil prices increase inflation and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields suppresses precious metal prices. The increase in SHFE silver inventory may affect silver prices. The US economy may face a risk of stagflation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing war between the US and Iran, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, has led to rising oil prices, an increase in inflation expectations, and a delay in interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen, inflation expectations have increased, interest - rate cut expectations have been postponed, and gold and silver prices have corrected. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5023 per ounce, down 3.1% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $5200 and a lower support level of $4900. The US silver closed at $80.7 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.8%, a lower support level of $77, and an upper resistance level of $86 [7][10] 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, increased inflation expectations, and postponed interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and watch and trade cautiously [12][14] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), US Treasury yields (10 - year, 2 - year, inflation - indexed Treasury bonds), interest rate spreads (10Y - 2Y), the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, the gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [16][19][23] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US January PCE price index annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Iran will continue to fight and use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to pressure the US and Israel. The US Treasury Secretary said that the US Navy may, when military conditions allow, jointly with an international coalition, provide escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US February inflation and core inflation met expectations and were flat compared to the previous value. The February CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (previous value 2.4%, expected 2.4%), and 0.3% month - on - month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%); the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year (previous value 2.5%, expected 2.5%), and increased 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.3%, expected 0.2%) [26] 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16,494.69 kg to 1,012,467.51 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 384 kg to 105,417 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230,871.51 kg to 10,628,787.83 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 70,614 kg to 326,566 kg [14][30] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 10, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 165,679 contracts, an increase of 5,788 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 23,736 contracts, an increase of 1,062 contracts from last week [14][34] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 18, at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate will be released. On Thursday, March 19, at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate decision will be announced, and at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 will be released [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts remained flat. The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 73 billion yuan on that day. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver main contracts declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is still strong. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The price may rebound but with limited space. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to rise. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the long term, the increase in iron ore imports and high inventory levels may limit the upward space. The increase in iron water production may support the price. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the increase in iron water production may support the price. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [17][18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in net long positions in futures and options shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The war has an expanding trend, and the shortage of global crude oil supply is expected to support the price. It is recommended to focus on long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [19][20][21]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou fluctuated, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the long - term supply pressure will gradually be released. The demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious procurement". It is recommended to focus on long - entry opportunities [23]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell slightly. The core driver of the market is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which supports the cost of synthetic rubber. The short - term price is supported, and the medium - term needs to pay attention to the sustainability of crude oil prices and the recovery of tire demand. The view is a strong - side shock [25][26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - number rubber main contract fell. The core driver of the market is the increase in crude oil prices, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in the low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is still under pressure. The view is a strong - side shock [28]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell slightly. The market is driven by the overseas conflict and the start of domestic spring demand. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price is in a strong - side shock. The medium - term needs to pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm and the recovery of demand [29][30]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell slightly. The market is driven by the global supply disturbance of urea due to the Middle East conflict and the domestic spring plowing demand. The short - term cost support is strengthened, but there are still policy regulation and capacity release pressures. The price may maintain a strong - side shock. The medium - term needs to pay attention to the changes in export quota policies and the rhythm of capacity investment [31][33]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell slightly. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX load is slightly reduced. The downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually recovering. The short - term PX price may run in a strong - side shock, and it is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions [34]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell slightly. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the change of crude oil prices [35][36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory is high. The short - term price needs to be treated with caution, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the strait [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract fell. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is recovering. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, and the cost is relatively strong. The short - term trading is mainly based on the cost side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and the resumption of work of downstream factories [39][40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The processing fee has increased significantly, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is increasing, and the cost support is strong. The bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side and run in a strong - side shock. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash rose slightly. The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is general. The cost - pulling expectation exists, but there is no significant support signal in the fundamentals. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [42][43]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass rose slightly. The capacity reduction rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak. The price is in a high - position range, and the long - short game is intense. It is necessary to control positions and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [44][45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda rose. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the export is favorable. The price is strong, but the actual export volume has not increased significantly. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes and device maintenance progress [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp fell slightly. The domestic production is expected to decrease, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase of pulp is not well - supported. The needle - leaf pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has pushed up energy prices and inflation expectations, and the US dollar is strong, which suppresses the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the downstream demand has certain support. The copper price may fluctuate weakly in the short term [52][53]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The supply pressure of alumina is still large, and the cost support is limited. The Middle East conflict has affected the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and the supply tightening expectation has pushed up the spot premium. The domestic downstream consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly [54][55][56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is disturbed. The demand is expected to recover, but the actual recovery strength needs to be verified. The inventory is still increasing. The zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [57][58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The production of primary lead has increased, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The demand for lead batteries has recovered, but the geopolitical risk is not conducive to the recovery of export orders. The inventory is increasing, and the futures price is under pressure [59][60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has increased the price volatility of resources. The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is complex. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support. The short - term price volatility may increase, and it is necessary to control risks [61][62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has affected the price of resources. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the cost of nickel production is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The short - term decline is limited by the increase in crude oil prices. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, and the supply is gradually tightening. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [64][65]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil has risen, and the export volume has increased. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider a long - side thinking [66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has fluctuated. The increase in fertilizer prices may lead to a reduction in rapeseed planting area. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to consider positive - spread opportunities [68][69]. Cotton - The domestic cotton price has fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the downstream consumption is resilient. The short - term market may be affected by the expectation of quota issuance [70][72]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price has run strongly. The Indian sugar production has been revised downwards, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. The increase in crude oil prices supports the ethanol price, which indirectly benefits the sugar price [73][74][75]. Apples - The apple futures have fluctuated. The current inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [76][77]. Pigs - On the previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The current supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the supply may increase in the short term, and the price may be weak. The government has started the purchase and storage mechanism, but the short - term effect may be limited. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities at high positions [78][79]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in March, and the cost increase may affect the price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contract lightly [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract fell, and the corn starch main contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price may be affected by factors such as wheat substitution, inventory and crude oil prices. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it may follow the corn market [81][82][83]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of logs rose slightly. The shipment of New Zealand logs has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. The market is in a high - position range, and the long - short game is intense. It is necessary to pay attention to the external quotation, shipment dynamics and downstream consumption [84][85].