Group 1 - The emergence of the "third consumption society" in China is characterized by personalized and diversified consumption preferences, driven by younger generations such as those born in the 1990s and 1995s [1] - Public funds are increasingly investing in "self-indulgent" consumption companies, with 207 public funds including Pop Mart among their top ten holdings as of Q1 2025 [1] - The trend of "self-indulgent" consumption is attracting significant attention from public funds, with companies like Mixue Group and Laopu Gold also seeing substantial fund allocations [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds are actively betting on the consumption upgrade, with a net inflow of HKD 63.7 billion into the new consumption sector from April 8 to June 9 [2] - The current Chinese consumer market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification," where consumers are willing to pay for quality at low prices and justified premiums [2] - The Z generation's consumption willingness and ability, along with their focus on "value for money" and "quality for price," are driving the new consumption wave in China [2] Group 3 - There is significant growth potential in self-indulgent consumption, with service consumption in China still relatively low compared to Japan and the U.S. [3] - Historical data shows that service-related expenditures in Japan and the U.S. have consistently increased, indicating a trend that China could follow [3] - Currently, service industry expenditure accounts for only 46.1% of China's total consumption spending, suggesting room for substantial growth [3]

出品｜搜狐财经 2024年一季度，谢治宇旗下兴全合宜买入泡泡玛特1437.7万股，市值3.7亿元，为全市场对泡泡玛特持股数最多的基金；算上兴全社会价值三年当时持有的 241.29万股，彼时谢治宇共持有泡泡玛特约1679万股。 据兴全合宜2024年一季报，报告期内泡泡玛特为其第9大重仓股，不过占基金净值比例仅2.82%。由于持仓比例较低，虽然当季度泡泡玛特大涨44.61%，基 金净值仍然下跌4.44%。 回顾谢治宇对泡泡玛特的操作，最早可追溯到2022年第二季度，彼时泡泡玛特为兴全合宜的第45大持仓，不过2022年年底大笔减持。 作者｜汪梦婷 一只獠牙坏笑的精灵玩偶，正以令基金经理瞠目结舌的方式颠覆传统消费估值逻辑。 6月10日，上海永乐拍卖会上，一只薄荷色Labubu以108万元落槌，价格堪比顶级艺术品。资本洪流从核心IP向外溢散，2025年至今泡泡玛特股价犹如火箭蹿 升，累计涨幅接近200%，最新市值超过3500亿港元。 截止2025年一季度末，公募市场共有207只基金投资泡泡玛特，相比一年前增加171只。在重仓泡泡玛特的基金经理中，"消费四大天王"却不见踪影，不算已 离职的王宗合，张坤、萧楠、刘彦春全部" ...

Group 1 - The overall consumption market in Beijing showed improvement, with a total market consumption increase of 1.3% year-on-year from January to May, driven by factors such as the "May Day" holiday and early consumption promotions for "618" [1] - Retail sales of gold and jewelry surged by 41% year-on-year, leading all categories, attributed to rising international gold prices and strong demand during the wedding season [1] - Brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reported significant sales growth in traditional gold products, with younger consumers favoring stylish gold jewelry designs [1] Group 2 - The Chinese gold and jewelry market is experiencing two emerging trends: improvements in gold craftsmanship and a rising "self-pleasure" consumption trend, leading to a younger demographic willing to pay a premium for aesthetics [2] - Fashion brands are increasingly focusing on experiential consumption, with luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior opening standalone flagship stores in Beijing, indicating a shift from "cost-performance" to "quality-price" in consumer preferences [2] - The emphasis on emotional connections between consumers and brands is becoming a core strategy for physical retail, highlighting the importance of diversified and scenario-based fashion consumption in Beijing's market [2]

Group 1 - The report reveals a new consumption landscape in China, highlighting significant growth in service consumption, particularly in health and wellness, education, and cultural services [1][5][11] - Cultural consumption is robust, with tourism at the top of consumer intentions, and a notable increase in movie attendance and cross-city cultural activities [1][5][11] - The consumption expectations in lower-tier cities and rural areas are surpassing those in first and second-tier cities in sectors like tourism and health services [1][5][11] Group 2 - The report indicates a diverse range of consumer preferences, with different income and education levels leading to varied spending habits, such as low-income and high-income households favoring health and wellness, while middle-income households prefer fitness [1][5][11] - Over two-thirds of respondents plan to spend between 2000-19999 yuan on tourism, with a strong inclination among young people and women to travel [1][5][11] - The health consumption market is expanding, with a shift from reactive to proactive health management, indicating a growing trend towards preventive health investments [1][5][11] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + silver economy" in community elder care, highlighting the demand for medical and health services [1][5][11] - The education sector shows a surge in interest, particularly in lower-tier markets, with women exhibiting higher spending expectations than men [1][5][11] - The durable goods market is seeing a shift, with a preference for digital products in East China and a growing interest in new energy vehicles, driven by considerations of range, safety, and charging convenience [1][5][11] Group 4 - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in home-buying demand in first-tier cities, while rental demand is increasing, particularly among younger demographics [1][5][11] - Pet consumption is on the rise, particularly among non-traditional families and young people, with the Northeast leading in pet care spending [1][5][11] - The report calls for maintaining consumer confidence and restructuring growth in foreign trade provinces to expand new consumption spaces [1][5][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales data for May 2025 showed a better-than-expected growth of 6.4% year-on-year, driven by the early launch of the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [4][5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from an improving macroeconomic environment, with consumer income and willingness to spend likely to improve in the medium to long term [3][4] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, but is expected to attract attention due to low valuations and increasing dividend yields [3][6] - The snack food sector is experiencing growth driven by channel innovation and product diversification, with emerging channels like Sam's Club and online e-commerce showing high growth trends [6] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [4] - The food and oil category saw a year-on-year growth of 14.6%, while the beverage category grew by 0.1% and the tobacco and alcohol category increased by 11.2% [4][10][16] Quarterly Observations - The retail sales growth is expected to rebound in Q2 2025, with food and oil categories maintaining high growth rates [5] - The retail sales of food and oil, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol categories for April-May 2025 were +12.2%, -0.5%, and +6.3% year-on-year, respectively [5] Industry Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to regulatory impacts and seasonal demand weakness, while the snack food sector is thriving with strong growth opportunities [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch in the snack food sector, including Ximai Food, Yanjinpuzi, and Wancheng Group, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [3][6]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%[1] - The GDP growth rate for May is estimated at 5.6%, consistent with the previous value[1] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 1999[1] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% and communication equipment by 33.0%[1] - "Self-indulgence" consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment goods, saw growth rates of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year; manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly decline of 11.98%[1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for May was 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a marginal slowdown[2] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to slow down further due to external uncertainties and diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies[1] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down from 5.1% in April[2] - Local household unemployment improved significantly, while unemployment among migrant workers increased slightly[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, particularly recommending Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" due to its strong performance and growth potential [6]. Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from clear policy support and its nature as a resilient consumer segment, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 20x, indicating attractive odds for investment [6]. - Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has shown significant growth in daily active users (DAU) since the beginning of the year, demonstrating its long-term operational capabilities and potential for revenue growth [6]. - Century Huatong's revenue increased by 16% in March, maintaining its position as the second-largest mobile game publisher in China, with notable titles achieving record global revenues [6]. - The report highlights the potential of various sectors including trendy consumer products, music, concerts, and gaming, with specific mentions of companies like Alibaba Pictures and Pop Mart [6]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Continued recommendation for the gaming sector, with a focus on Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and Century Huatong's strong revenue growth [6]. - Notable performance of other companies such as Netease and various emerging titles in the mobile gaming market [6]. Entertainment and Media - Positive outlook on consumer spending in trendy products and music, with companies like NetEase Music and Tencent Music showing growth in paid user segments [6]. - Alibaba Pictures rebranding to Damai Entertainment and its strategic moves in the concert and IP derivative markets [6]. AI Applications - Attention on undervalued AI applications with rapid commercialization progress, highlighting companies like Meitu and Kuaishou [6]. - Kuaishou's AI video monetization exceeding 100 million RMB monthly, indicating strong market performance [6]. Advertising Sector - Concerns regarding the recent adjustments in Focus Media due to market fears of domestic demand weakness, but the company maintains advantages in elevator advertising and high dividend ratios [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "new consumption" in the context of the Chinese market, highlighting the blending of various consumer goods categories into a single investment theme, despite underlying economic challenges and the need for a coherent narrative to support this concept [2][4]. Group 1: New Consumption Concept - The term "new consumption" is used to describe a collection of consumer stocks that have performed well, but the underlying data suggests that overall consumption is still struggling [3][4]. - The article critiques the idea of categorizing all rising consumer stocks under "new consumption," arguing that it dilutes the true essence of what constitutes new consumer behavior [3][4]. - The focus on individual stock performance (alpha opportunities) is emphasized over sector-based investment strategies (beta opportunities), particularly in the consumer sector [5][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - The article argues that the notion of "consumption downgrade" is misleading, as consumer behavior is influenced by psychological factors and social interactions rather than purely economic conditions [8][12]. - It identifies three psychological characteristics of consumer behavior: the expression of personal desires, social context, and lifestyle habits, which all contribute to consumption patterns [11][12]. - The concept of "value replacement" is introduced, where consumers seek lower-priced alternatives without sacrificing quality, exemplified by the rise of discount snack stores [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy in Consumer Stocks - The article outlines four key requirements for researching consumer stocks, emphasizing the importance of understanding stock price movements and valuation [6]. - It suggests that stable growth companies in the consumer sector can achieve significant long-term returns, contrasting with the volatility often seen in tech stocks [5][6]. - The focus should be on identifying leading brands and major products that can drive individual stock performance, rather than relying solely on broader market trends [10][5]. Group 4: Trends in Consumer Spending - The article discusses the trend of interest-based consumption, where consumers are increasingly drawn to products that fulfill personal interests or emotional needs [20][19]. - It highlights the importance of "breaking the circle" for niche products to reach a broader audience, using the example of collectible items like blind boxes [21][20]. - The concept of marginal propensity to consume is explored, indicating that spending growth is often driven by specific demographic groups with higher willingness to spend [25][26]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Channel Evolution - The article notes that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is undergoing significant changes due to the rise of new retail models, which are reshaping competition and brand dynamics [40]. - It emphasizes that successful brands must adapt to evolving consumer preferences and distribution channels to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing market [40][39]. - The discussion includes the impact of social media and digital marketing on consumer behavior and brand engagement, particularly for emerging products [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of value investors in the face of market fluctuations, focusing on long-term potential rather than short-term noise [1] - Recent price declines in the liquor market are attributed to speculative behavior rather than genuine demand shifts, with expectations of recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [2] - The stability of prices for older vintages of Moutai reflects their strong demand for consumption and collection, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the market [4] Group 2 - The trend of consumers increasingly using Moutai in non-business settings highlights a shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on personal enjoyment and quality [6] - The overall liquor market is witnessing a concentration of demand towards premium brands, with Moutai benefiting from its established reputation and quality during industry adjustments [7] - The cultural products associated with Moutai are experiencing high demand, indicating a growing trend of consumers seeking personal fulfillment through collection and enjoyment [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "new consumption," which combines various consumer stocks that have shown price increases, rather than categorizing them by type. This approach reflects a deeper issue in the A-share market's investment mentality, focusing on themes and concepts rather than fundamental analysis [2][5]. Group 1: New Consumption Concept - The "new consumption" concept is a collection of consumer stocks that have performed well, but it lacks a coherent narrative, as many included categories do not fit the definition of new consumption [4][5]. - The article argues that the focus on "new consumption" is a result of a broader trend in the A-share market, where investment decisions are often driven by themes rather than the underlying fundamentals of individual companies [5][6]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The article highlights that despite a general decline in consumer spending, certain sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles have shown growth, largely driven by policy support [3][12]. - It emphasizes that the notion of "consumption downgrade" is misleading; instead, it reflects a shift in consumer behavior influenced by psychological factors and economic conditions [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article outlines four key requirements for researching consumer stocks: stable growth, focus on leading companies, individual stock alpha opportunities, and long-term odds [9]. - It suggests that successful consumer stocks often exhibit a long-term growth trend, with prices potentially doubling every three years [8]. Group 4: Price Sensitivity and Consumer Behavior - The article discusses the importance of price sensitivity among consumers, noting that many are now more focused on value for money rather than simply upgrading their purchases [22][28]. - It introduces the concept of "value replacement," where consumers opt for lower-priced alternatives without sacrificing quality, which has become a cultural phenomenon rather than just an economic response [20][21]. Group 5: Emerging Trends in Consumption - The article identifies "interest consumption" or "self-indulgent consumption" as a growing trend, particularly among younger consumers who seek unique and personalized products [30][31]. - It also notes that products with high marginal consumption propensity are often linked to social media trends, which can lead to rapid popularity but may not sustain long-term loyalty [41][42]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Channel Evolution - The article highlights the transformation of retail channels, emphasizing that new retail models are replacing traditional supermarkets, significantly impacting the competitive landscape for consumer brands [57][58]. - It points out that the success of consumer products is increasingly tied to effective channel management and understanding consumer behavior, rather than merely relying on brand recognition [56].