每经AI快讯，8月7日，红枣期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至3%，报11225元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-07 新增产能持续放量，供应压力增大 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7321元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（-17），LL华北现货为7230 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7050元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为-91元/吨（+32）， LL华东基差为-41元/吨（+2）， PP华东基差为-28元/吨（+27）。 市场要闻与重要数据 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.1%（+2.1%），PP开工率为76.9%（+0.0%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为292.5元/吨（+88.1），PP油制生产利润为-187.5元/吨（+88.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为302.7元/吨（-27.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-71.8元/吨（+2.4），PP进口利润为-506.2元/吨（-17.5），PP出口利润为30.3美元/吨（+2.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为41.1%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场等待美农数据，棉花震荡运行 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-07 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：受秋冬春连旱影响，广西甘蔗出苗和前期生长不利，甘蔗长势和株 数较去年同期偏矮偏少。甜菜长势总体良好，但内蒙古产区近期降水偏多， 易发生病虫害，需提前防治。国际方面，后期需继续关注巴西产糖进度和北 半球糖料生长情况。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区已进入现蕾至开花阶段，生长进度比往年提前 了 4 到 7 天。根据中国气象局的气候预测，7 月份新疆地区的气温将持续偏 高，高温天数也将超过往年同期，这使得棉花面临较高的热害风险。目前， 棉花库存总量持续减少，但下游市场表现出明显的淡季特征，纺织企业在原 料采购上显得 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Oscillating upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed analysis of the zinc market's fundamentals, including price, trading volume, open interest, premium/discount, inventory, and related product prices, as well as relevant news and trend strength [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, and LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 2,750 dollars/ton with -0.15% change [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract volume was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots, while LME zinc volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 94,254 lots, a decrease of 4,218 lots, and LME zinc open interest was 190,784 lots, an increase of 162 lots [1] - **Premium/Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -20 yuan/ton with no change, and LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -13.16 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.29 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,395 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,505 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base. Japan requests the US to correct the tariff implementation [2] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a fundamental tracking of eggs, including futures prices, price spreads, spot prices in different regions, and relevant industrial chain data, as well as the trend strength, but does not explicitly state a core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2509 is 3,378, with a daily increase of 0.99 and a trading volume decrease of 21,588 and an open - interest decrease of 19,320; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,624, with a daily decrease of 0.11, a trading volume decrease of 2,794, and an open - interest decrease of 1,128 [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The egg 9 - 10 spread is 93 on the latest day, compared to 78 the previous day; the egg 9 - 1 spread is - 246 on the latest day, compared to - 300 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In different regions, the latest day's spot prices of eggs in Liaoning and Shanxi are 2.90 yuan/jin, the price in Hebei is 2.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Hubei is 3.09 yuan/jin. The latest day's corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and the strength classification includes weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 7 日 LPG：成本支撑偏弱 丙烯：短期弱势震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,855 | 0.26% | 3,833 | -0.57% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,316 | 0.82% | 4,307 | -0.21% | | | PL2601 | 6,494 | -0.28% | 6,506 | 0.18% | | | PL2602 | 6,551 | -0.30% | 6,548 | -0.05% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 83,729 | -10528 | 102,924 | 983 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 35,153 | 1567 | 85,403 | 6504 | | | PL2601 | 1,92 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 48,645 lots, up 21.21%; the open interest was 65,019 lots, down 9.80%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.75, up 34.38% [1] - LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 1,997 dollars/ton, up 1.09%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.60% [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable, while secondary lead production is affected by factors such as high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited recycling sources, with some refineries reducing or suspending production. But as the electrolytic lead factory inventory decreases, the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering [1] - In July, the market still has expectations for peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspend purchases during the monthly inventory check at the end of the week [1] Industry News - In the "China Sinopec 2025 Annual Routine Demand High - Performance Battery Centralized Procurement Framework Agreement Public Tendering for Acid Battery Equipment Procurement Tendering", Hoppecke won the bid as the first - ranked bidder again [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 89,569 lots, up 4.82%; the open interest was 94,254 lots, down 4.28%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, up 9.51% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 14,375 tons, down 2.92%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,795 dollars/ton, up 1.64%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.01, down 1.61% [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In the context of continuous raw material supply, it is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees will continue to rise in August, weakening cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing significantly [1] - Last week, the decline in zinc prices improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but the terminal is in the off - season, and enterprise production has declined [1] Industry News - Affected by Vietnam's tariff increase, the export orders of some galvanized sheet plants in August have declined significantly, and domestic orders are also weak. The operation rate of domestic galvanized sheets in August may continue to decline [1] - Affected by the increased production of mines in Xinjiang, Hebei and other places, the SMM zinc concentrate production increased significantly in July, but there will be mine overhauls in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in August, and zinc concentrate production may decline slightly month - on - month [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows signs of stabilizing. The recent decline in steel prices was mainly affected by the drop in coking coal prices. In the off - season, the supply and demand of steel are basically balanced, with a small increase in inventory. Steel prices rose in July, and inventory shifted from steel mills to traders. Steel mills have over - sold recently, and forward orders have been received for 20 - 30 days later. In the short term, steel inventory pressure is low, and as demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. The main risk is the interference from the expected supply of coking coal. It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on price pullbacks and lightly test long positions at the current level [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, the iron ore shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipping data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Terminal demand shows a strong performance during the off - season but weakens month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. In the future, molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average expected to be around 236,000 tons per day. The improvement in steel mills' profits will support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries, and there are expectations of production restrictions for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and iron ore prices will follow. It is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading and long iron ore and short steel for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations recently. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, and port trade quotes remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and although coking production restrictions have been lifted, production is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses. On the demand side, blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, and downstream demand provides support. It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventory continued to decrease, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mills' inventory decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. As steel mills increase inventory replenishment at low prices, it is beneficial for future coke price increases. There is room for hedging due to the premium of coke futures over the spot. In August, there are positive drivers from production restrictions in Shanxi and Hebei for coking and steel industries. There are expectations of a sixth - round price increase in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations. The spot auction prices were stable with a slight upward trend, Mongolian coal quotes stabilized, and large - mine long - term contract prices increased. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month. Due to good sales, coal mines mainly held firm on prices, and the market remained in short supply. In terms of imported coal, Mongolian coal prices stabilized this week after following the futures decline last week, and downstream users continued to replenish inventory. On the demand side, coking operations remained stable, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, with continuous downstream inventory replenishment demand. In August, molten iron production is expected to remain at around 236,000 tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mines continued to rapidly reduce inventory, ports and borders also saw inventory reduction, and downstream actively replenished inventory, with the overall inventory at a medium level. Although the spot fundamentals are under pressure due to the futures market, there are still expectations of coal mine production restrictions in August. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices generally increased slightly. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 2.6 to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.5 to 867.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.9 to 211.1 tons, a 0.4% decrease, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.6 to 26.6 tons (a 10.9% increase) and converter production decreasing by 3.5 to 184.5 tons (a 1.9% decrease). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 to 322.8 tons, a 1.7% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 15.4 to 1351.9 tons, a 1.2% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 7.6 to 546.3 tons, a 1.4% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.8 to 348.0 tons, an 0.8% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.3 to 11.0 tons, a 27.0% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 16.1 to 852.0 tons, a 1.9% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.2 to 203.4 tons, a 6.1% decrease. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.8 to 320.0 tons, a 1.5% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of some powders decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 48.0, a 3.0% increase, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to 24.5, a 5.8% decrease, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an 11.9% increase. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a 4.3% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The weekly average daily shipping volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7 tons, a 3.9% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.3 to 13657.9 tons, a 0.2% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21.0 days [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased. Coke futures contract prices also increased, and the basis decreased. The coking profit decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Demand - The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.64% decrease [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 915.4 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.5 to 73.6 tons, an 8.14% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.3 to 626.7 tons, a 2.14% decrease. The port inventory increased by 17.0 to 215.1 tons, an 8.6% increase [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.8 to - 4.8 tons, a 15.84% increase [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures contract prices increased, and the basis changed. The coal mine profit increased [5]. Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price remained unchanged, the Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal ex - warehouse price remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 6.0 to 721 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease [5]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 6.4 to 868.7 tons, a 0.7% increase, and the clean coal production increased by 3.1 to 444.1 tons, a 0.7% increase [5]. Demand - The weekly coking production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, and the weekly coking production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.9 to 118.8 tons, a 10.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.4 to 992.7 tons, a 0.74% increase. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.3 to 803.8 tons, a 0.5% increase. The port inventory decreased by 10.2 to 282.1 tons, a 3.5% decrease [5].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].