产能限制意味着金属的实物供应无法迅速增加以满足激增的需求，导致价格"已完全脱离实物需求强劲 支撑的水平"，一旦投机者开始获利了结、流动性枯竭，这种态势可能同样急剧地逆转。然而，并非所 有人都同意价格发现已完全崩溃——即确立一个使商品供需相匹配的市场价格的过程。这轮涨势反映了 投机资本日益增长的影响力。 【技术分析】 摘要周三(1月28日)亚欧时段，黄金周四延续强势，突破每盎司5500美元创历史新高；白银2025年累涨 超145%后，周四首破117美元/盎司，今年以来涨近65%。这波涨势带动铂金、钯金等贵金属及基础金属 普涨。YardeniResearch总裁埃德.亚德尼称，去年初便预测黄金飙升，如今已演变为贵金属、基础金属 及稀土矿物全线上涨。分析师指出，地缘紧张、政府债务膨胀、利率与货币前景不确定推升避险需求， 央行购金及货币宽松预期增强无息黄金相对美债的吸引力。 周四(1月29日)亚欧时段，黄金周四延续强势，突破每盎司5500美元创历史新高；白银2025年累涨超 145%后，周四首破117美元/盎司，今年以来涨近65%。这波涨势带动铂金、钯金等贵金属及基础金属普 涨。Yardeni Research总裁埃 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is preparing to release its quarterly earnings on January 29, 2026, with expectations of a slight revenue increase despite a projected decline in earnings per share (EPS) [1][2][3]. Financial Projections - Analysts project Deckers' EPS to be $2.72, while Zacks Investment Research anticipates a slightly higher EPS of $2.77, despite a year-over-year decline of 7.7% [2][6]. - Revenue is expected to reach approximately $1.87 billion, marking a 2.6% increase from the same quarter last year [3][6]. Financial Metrics - Deckers' financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.25 and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.76 [4][6]. - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 2.56, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 12.57, indicating the company's valuation and profitability [4]. - The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, reflecting a low level of debt compared to equity, and a current ratio of 3.07, suggesting strong liquidity [5]. Market Sentiment - The downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate by 0.2% over the past 30 days may signal potential investor actions and influence short-term stock performance [3]. - As the earnings report approaches, investors are keen to see if Deckers can exceed expectations and how this will affect its stock price [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, with a significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections in January 2023, despite a relatively modest net injection in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On January 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 377.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan after 363.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The total net injection for the week reached 84.2 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC's operations in January included a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a net injection of 1 trillion yuan for the month, significantly higher than December's 300 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - As of January 28, the overnight repo rate (DR001) slightly decreased to 1.367% from 1.3674%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell to 1.5479% from 1.5833%, reflecting a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's proactive measures, including the early renewal of MLF, indicate a strong intention to support the liquidity in the market, especially ahead of the Chinese New Year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to February, potential liquidity disturbances are anticipated due to increased cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival and sustained high levels of government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement 14-day reverse repos and continue flexible operations with reverse repos and MLF to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [3]. - Despite the low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with controlled volatility in both DR007 and DR001 rates [3].

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 2026 年 01 月 28 日 资金波澜再起 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 货币政策与流动性观点：税期过后即将迎来跨月，1 月最后一周政府债缴款规模 大幅上升至 5150 亿元左右，可能对资金面造成扰动，但需要注意的是 1 月央行 通过买断式和 MLF 净投放中长期资金 1 万亿元，可以看出对资金面的呵护，因此 跨月或也无需过于担忧。较为特别的是，上周隔夜资金出现上行的情况下存单利 率低位下行，一方面说明银行中长期负债可能较为充足，同业存单从 2025 年 11 月中旬开始除了 12 月第一周少量净融资不到 500 亿元外持续净偿还，截至上周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "spring market" in the stock market is somewhat misleading, and it is more important to focus on liquidity and policy support as key factors for market performance [1] Group 1: Liquidity Factors - The spring market relies on improved liquidity, which is typically characterized by increased budget availability and cash flow during this period [1] - Companies with significant performance improvements and strong cash flow support are recommended for investment, as they have a higher probability of receiving unexpected liquidity compared to ordinary companies [1] - Additionally, companies with a gross profit margin above 30% are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the current complex market environment [1] Group 2: Policy Factors - Attention should be given to upcoming important policy meetings, as the directions provided during these meetings will indicate which industries are prioritized for support [1] - Although specific policies have not yet been announced, it is anticipated that they will likely focus on industrial technology companies with core technologies and export capabilities, as well as domestic infrastructure stocks closely related to national livelihood and consumption [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and the impact of regulatory actions on market dynamics [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Historical Regulatory Impact**: Past regulatory actions aimed at controlling market speculation have typically resulted in market declines or shifts in investment styles, suggesting that the current situation is unlikely to be an exception [1][3]. 2. **Misunderstanding of Liquidity**: There is a prevalent misconception that small-cap stocks will remain unaffected by sell-offs in large-cap indices, indicating a lack of understanding of liquidity dynamics [1][3]. 3. **ETF Trading Activity**: In the past two weeks, significant trading activity has been observed in major A-share broad-based ETFs, with net outflows exceeding 400 billion RMB, including a notable 237.7 billion RMB outflow from the CSI 300 ETF [4]. 4. **State Intervention**: The state has been actively using ETFs as a counter-cyclical tool to stabilize the market since July 2023, with interventions expected to continue until the "9.24 market" in 2024 [4]. 5. **Market Divergence**: The current market is characterized by a divergence where blue-chip stocks are under pressure while speculative small-cap stocks remain hot, driven by a shift in capital towards high-beta thematic sectors [4]. 6. **Rising Margin Financing**: The continuous increase in margin financing indicates a rising risk appetite in the market, but also suggests accumulating structural vulnerabilities [5]. 7. **High Futures Premium**: The current state of futures trading shows a significant premium, which typically indicates ongoing speculative enthusiasm in the market [6][7]. 8. **Potential ETF Exhaustion**: If the state exhausts its ETF holdings, regulatory measures may shift from market operations to administrative actions, including raising margin requirements and accelerating IPOs to dilute excess liquidity [8]. 9. **Market Outlook**: The long-term vision remains a "slow bull" market, focusing on reducing market risk appetite. The market is expected to enter a phase of wide fluctuations, with structural opportunities emerging in sectors with genuine growth potential [8]. 10. **Leverage Risk**: The most critical risk identified is the non-linear explosion of leverage risk, which could lead to forced liquidations even from minor irrational corrections due to high margin financing levels [9][10]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the potential for a shift from liquidity-driven market dynamics to fundamentals-driven performance, especially with the upcoming earnings season [8]. - There is an ongoing concern regarding who will absorb the large volumes of ETF sell-offs, indicating uncertainty in market stability [10].

以下文章来源于阿基米德Biotech ，作者阿基米德君 1月2 0日，历史上一个平淡的日子，唯一的热闹，可能是大寒之日上海飘雪。同日，另 一 场 寒 潮 却 无 声 无 息 ， 恒 生 生 物 科 技 指 数 （ HSHKBIO ） 成 交 额 跌 破 1 0 0 亿 港 币 ， 与 2 0 2 5年最高点相比下降近8 0 %，1 5家港股1 8A公司日成交额不足1 0 0万港币。 创新药在研发主战场外，正在开辟争夺流动性的第二战场。 技术和资本，一体两面，是创新药企的两大属性。早期生物科技没有自我造血功能，全 靠资本输血。成熟创新药企在每一个重要节点，跃升到更高发展阶段，也靠资本支持。 当前，通过港股1 8A通道上市的生物科技企业已达8 5家(含摘B)，还有超过8 0家递表排 队，而流动性却在指缝间溜走。自研能力不够硬，又不做市值管理的公司，等于自动退 出流动性争夺战，被边缘化，被遗忘，直至丧失融资能力。 阿基米德Biotech . 生物科技第三方独立观察，提前感知行业边际变化，客观中立，深入浅出，松弛愉悦 流动性。 作者 / 阿基米德君 来源 / 阿基米德Biotech （ID：ArchimedesBio ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, highlighting the liquidity situation, construction and real estate chains, industrial products, pricing dynamics, and export conditions, with a focus on potential investment opportunities and market movements. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, an increase of 6.62% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The current price of London gold is $4,981 per ounce [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is expected to be at the highest level for January in five years [4] - Weekly price changes include rebar down 1.81%, cement price index down 0.87%, rubber down 0.32%, coke unchanged, coking coal up 1.07%, and iron ore down 2.92% [4] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.36 percentage points, while cement and asphalt operating rates decreased by 4.30 percentage points and increased by 3.7 percentage points, respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price increasing by 0.76% and glass price decreasing by 0.73% [5] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,740 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 1.55%, copper down 0.71%, and aluminum up 0.54%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for cold-rolled steel and an increase in losses for copper and aluminum [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 74.56%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Specific Products - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached a new low since 2018 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,001.58 yuan per ton [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, with a profit of 6,911 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 1.83% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached the lowest level since 2013 [8] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01, and the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 70 yuan per ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 150 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25% from the previous week [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December is 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,208.75 points, a decrease of 0.09% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [10] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 34.11% and 100.00%, respectively [10] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of oriented silicon steel has reached its lowest level since 2018, indicating potential market challenges [2] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a historical high, with the London gold spot price at $4,981 per ounce, reflecting strong demand [11] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained in the medium to long term, which could lead to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The current London gold price is $4,981 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be at its highest level for the same period in five years [20] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [39] - The report notes that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,300 yuan per ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [76] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 74.56%, up 1.12 percentage points [2] - The report indicates that the price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.54% increase [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 543,000 yuan per ton, up 6.37% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.62%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, up 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,208.75 points, down 0.09% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, up 0.20 percentage points [3]

不过在华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川看来，季初月跨月压力通常不大，参考2025年季初月（剔除 1月）R007变动，资金最大升幅基本在20BP以内。同时，在央行净买债规模尚未披露的背景下，1月央 行已通过MLF（净投放7000亿元）、买断式逆回购（净投放3000亿元）合计释放1万亿元中长期资金， 体量相当于降准0.5pct。在此背景下，本周资金大概率借助逆回购续滚，便可实现平稳跨月。 新华财经北京1月26日电人民银行26日开展1505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持 平；鉴于当日有2000亿元1年期中期借贷便利（MLF）和1583亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净 回笼2078亿元。 上周（1月19日-23日）央行逆回购合计净投放2295亿元，23日有1500亿元国库现金定存到期，同日央行 开展9000亿元1年期MLF操作，超额续作7000亿元。央行逆回购整体净投放规模不大，周中税期对资金 面的影响低于预期，尽管下半周资金一度边际收紧，但随着周五9000亿元MLF落地，DR001再度回到 1.4%下方。 全周来看，面对1月大税期的扰动，资金面再起波澜。19日资金面已初现上行态势，R001 ...