Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an adjustment in tactical asset allocation, recommending an overweight position in Chinese equities, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, a market weight in Japanese stocks, and an underweight position in government bonds [1][2][3] - The improvement in market risk appetite is driving the pricing of major asset classes, with equities outperforming safe-haven assets, indicating a preference for risk assets over bonds [1][2] - Factors supporting the performance of Chinese assets include stable total policy expectations, increased enthusiasm for technology breakthroughs and emerging industries, and a focus on capital market development by the government [2][3] Group 2 - The tactical allocation view for A-shares has been upgraded to overweight due to the high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value of Chinese equity assets [2] - The tactical allocation view for US stocks has also been upgraded to overweight, driven by improved market risk appetite and a more favorable outlook on US trade policies following the US-Japan tariff agreement [2][3] - The tactical allocation view for Japanese stocks has been adjusted to market weight, as concerns over Japan's export trade have decreased, although inflationary pressures remain a consideration [3] Group 3 - The tactical allocation view for government bonds has been downgraded to underweight due to multiple factors including improved market risk appetite and ongoing redemption pressures, which are expected to negatively impact bond prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week as exchanges cool down commodities and the Politburo meeting's incremental policies are likely limited. The central bank will maintain market liquidity, and funds are expected to return to a loose state after the month - end. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [2][14] - It is difficult for market risk appetite to continue rising next week. The commodity market rally is driven by sentiment, and there is a risk that market expectations for incremental policies may be disappointed. Market risk appetite is expected to decline gradually [14] - There is no basis for the continuous tightening of the funds market. After the month - end, the funds market is expected to loosen, and the sentiment in the treasury bond market may improve [15][16] - Market fluctuations will continue in Q3, and a trend - based market may not appear until Q4. The bond market is not at risk of a long - term bear market, and it will turn bullish after the central bank's interest - rate cut expectations rise [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 21 - 27, treasury bond futures declined significantly. Influenced by various factors such as investment news, commodity price changes, and central bank policies, the prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts decreased by 0.108, 0.420, 0.615, and 2.410 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Market sentiment is expected to improve, but fluctuations will persist. Risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and trend - based market may appear in Q4. Strategies include cautiously gambling on oversold rebound opportunities, considering short - hedging strategies, and constructing curve - steepening strategies [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 84 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.805 billion yuan and a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 25, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 4.92, 9.14, 7.07, and 9.15 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [26][27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined significantly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts changed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year contracts showing an increase in open interest [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive - arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The IRR of CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the positive - arbitrage strategy opportunities were relatively few [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 25, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts were - 0.082, - 0.060, - 0.015, and + 0.220 yuan respectively. The long - term far - season contracts declined slightly more [45][46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funds Market - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan this week, but the overall net investment was 109.5 billion yuan. The funds rate increased slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [49][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined slightly. As of July 25, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80% to 97.6701, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a 4 - basis - point decline from last weekend [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of July 25, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy - chemical index increased, while the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits changed differently [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, it is recommended to cautiously gamble on oversold rebound opportunities. Long - term, there is no bearish view, but it may be too early for allocation funds to go long. Consider short - hedging strategies and construct curve - steepening strategies [2][65]

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - This week, there were many positive news and hotspots, and the market responded actively摆脱过去借利多高开低走的惯性, with a stronger risk preference. A-shares, except for the banking sector, all recorded certain gains. Overseas, the progress of tariff negotiations between the US and its trading partners accelerated, reducing global uncertainties and further boosting market risk appetite. The A-share trading volume increased, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed this week, and all broad-based indexes had achieved five consecutive weekly gains. From a futures perspective, the marginal long and short forces were basically balanced, and the factors suppressing risk preference were few. The stock index futures showed a characteristic of rising with the market but not falling, indicating an optimistic sentiment in the futures market. The basis of IH and IF weakened compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM converged compared to last week, still at historically low levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - There were many positive news and hotspots this week, and the market showed a buying atmosphere at low levels. The "anti-involution" market spread, and A-shares, except for the banking sector, all rose. Overseas, the US tariff policies with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines were implemented, and the third round of China-US trade negotiations was to be held next week. The A-share trading volume exceeded 1.9 trillion for the first time in five months, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed, and all broad-based indexes had five consecutive weekly gains. In the futures market, the marginal long and short forces were balanced, and the stock index futures showed an optimistic sentiment. The basis of IH and IF weakened, and the discounts of IC and IM converged [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, weakening, strengthening respectively [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - The document provides the comparison data of the real basis change and the predicted basis change of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusion is summarized [4][5]

Group 1 - The liquidity in the interbank market improved as the tax period effects diminished, with the central bank's net injection of 102.8 billion yuan on July 18 [1] - The central bank continued to net withdraw funds throughout the week, with a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan on Monday and 2.477 billion yuan on Tuesday [1] - On Thursday, the funding rates increased significantly, with overnight and 7-day funding rates inverted, and the central bank net withdrew 119.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that the recent tax and spending bill signed by President Trump will increase the U.S. deficit by 3.4 trillion dollars over the next ten years [2] - The bill includes cuts to Medicaid and provisions that could lead to 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034 [2] - The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% month-over-month decline in existing home sales in June, reaching an annualized total of 3.9 million units, the lowest since September of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of enterprise innovation and collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises [3] - The recent market trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite, impacting the performance of bonds, while the internal logic for a bullish bond market remains due to weakened financing demand and debt leverage [3] - The supply-side policies mainly affect upstream industries, while midstream and downstream sectors remain weak, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy [3] Group 4 - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) targets policy financial bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [4] - The ETF offers good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, serving as a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has recently undergone significant adjustments, and the adjustment may not be over yet. The market generally expects the yield of the 10 - year active bond to operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report maintains the mid - term strategy of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond [3][8]. - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. The market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% for over 80% of the time, and below 1.5% for 40% of the time this year [3][15]. - The bond market may experience some oversold rebounds, but the upside is limited due to insufficient internal positive factors. It is recommended to be cautious with duration, lower annual return expectations, maintain a low - volatility portfolio, and seize short - term trading opportunities [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the Bond Market Adjustment - The rise of commodities and equities is considered the main reason. The stock and commodity markets have strengthened this week, with the duration and amplitude exceeding market expectations, which has weakened the sentiment in the bond market. The low interest rate level is a secondary reason, as the low cost - effectiveness of bond assets and limited downward space for interest rates lead to significant adjustments when there are negative factors [3][5]. Bond Market Stabilization - Most views believe that the bond market has not yet stabilized, but small - scale entry is possible. Some also think that sentiment has reversed and short - term stabilization is difficult, while few believe the adjustment has ended. The bond market has been affected by risk assets in the past few days, and yesterday's sharp decline was also due to the tightening of funds in July and the lower - than - expected MLF roll - over at the end of the session [3][5]. Yield Point Estimation - 1.8% is generally considered the upper limit of this round of adjustment. Most think the 10 - year active bond will operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report believes that there may be some repair around 1.8%, and oversold rebound operations can be carried out in the range of 1.75% - 1.8%, but the interest rate adjustment may not be over in the whole - year dimension [3][8]. Yield Curve Expectation - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Since July, funds have been relatively loose, so the short - end adjustment has been significantly smaller than the long - end. The market generally expects funds to maintain the current level, while the long - end is more affected by other factors. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. Risks and Opportunities in the Bond Market - The mainstream expectations for bond market opportunities are central bank bond purchases, A - share and commodity market corrections, while the attention to real estate and tariffs has weakened. Risk factors are more diverse, including A - share rises, institutional redemption pressure, central bank tightening of liquidity, and inflation increases. Although the decline in this round is less than that in the first quarter, the redemption of bond funds is stronger, and the secondary impact of redemptions needs to be vigilant [3][13]. Bond Fund Return Expectation - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. As of July 22, the year - to - date returns of the money market fund index and the long - term pure bond fund index are 0.77% and 0.70% respectively. Over 80% of the market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% this year, and 40% expect it to be below 1.5%, indicating that the market expects the second - half returns to be difficult to exceed the first - half returns [3][15].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9487, with a recent price of 9476, reflecting a 0.94% increase from the opening price of 9442 [1] - The highest price reached today was 9526, while the lowest was 9390, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The market's risk appetite has increased following President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan, leading to a nearly 4% rise in the Japanese stock market and a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index since October of last year [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese products from a threatened 25% to 15%, which may further enhance market risk appetite and reduce demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a two-week low, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for silver prices [3] - Analysts suggest that if more trade agreements are reached before August, it could further boost risk appetite and weaken gold demand, although a continued weak dollar may allow gold prices to rise to $3500 [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently in a bullish trend, with recent highs around 9540, although there has been some pullback without forming a top pattern [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at 9350 and 9250, with a break below 9350 indicating a potential shift from strong to weak momentum [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bond supply surplus has raised concerns, and all treasury bond futures closed lower. The strong stock market has boosted risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. The delayed expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.39, down 0.47 (-0.48%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1722, down 0.007 (-0.10%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, down 0.02 (-1.02%); DR007 was 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.07%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.01 (+0.45%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.00 (+0.45%) [8]. II. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On July 22, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.64 yuan, and 119.45 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.09%, and - 0.40% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.011 yuan, - 0.047 yuan, 0.045 yuan, and - 0.047 yuan respectively [2]. III. Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 22, 2025, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [1]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.317%, 1.462%, 1.551%, and 1.529% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report mentions the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, but specific data is not detailed here [40]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [40][42][43]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [45][47]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [54]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate [53][56]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [53]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate [61]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [64]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate [69][72]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [75]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [3].

国债期货日报 2025年7月22日 大宗商品大幅反弹 观点：交易盘暂时观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘偏强窄幅震荡，盘中跳水翻绿，随着风险资产走强价格持续下跌，午后二次跳水，尾盘明显收 跌。结构上短端偏强，TS09下跌0.008。10Y活跃券250011当日上行1.2bp，接近1.69%。流动性进一步改 善，资金利率回到1.3%的关键水平，开盘前隔夜匿名1.3%超过1400亿大额，DR001同样下行回到1.3%附 近。 日内消息： 1.俄罗斯总统新闻秘书、克宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯总统普京将于9月访华，出席中国人民抗日战争暨 世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动，俄方正为此次访华行程做筹备。 行情研判： 当前风险资产强势，不光是权益市场内部轮动接力，同样体现在风险资产之间的先后上涨提供支撑，风险偏 好整体强势，加上国债期货价格下跌破位，交易盘短期建议暂时止损观望，等待重要会议后反内卷政策细节 全部落地。 TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/3 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, but there is a trend towards a decline in global risk-free interest rates and improved risk appetite[6] - The U.S. stock market reached new highs, with major indices maintaining elevated levels, indicating a strong market performance[9] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, above the expected 2.6%, while the core CPI rose to 2.9%, aligning with expectations[28] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation risk pricing has intensified, with significant market volatility observed following the CPI release, highlighting a growing focus on inflation narratives[10] - The latest CPI data reflects a divergence in inflation trends, with strong commodity inflation and weak service inflation, suggesting future inflation risks may remain below market expectations[20] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.1%, indicating resilient consumer spending despite price increases driven by tariffs[34] Group 3: Policy and Political Influences - Trump's shift from a populist agenda to a market-focused approach has been pivotal in explaining the market rebound since April, with policies aimed at stabilizing and boosting the economy[15] - The tightening concerns are viewed as short-term, while expansionary drivers are expected to dominate the trend moving forward[20] - The geopolitical landscape and policy uncertainties continue to pose risks to economic stability, impacting market sentiment[3]