风险偏好打压避险资产，金价下跌 金十数据5月14日讯，黄金下跌，因投资者的风险偏好增强，尽管围绕关税谈判路径的不确定性挥之不 去，而且对今年降息的乐观情绪有所增强。Forex.com市场分析师法瓦德•拉扎克扎达表示："随着关税 降低，以及谈判显示出实际进展，投资者正变得越来越放心。更重要的是，周二美国公布的低于预期的 通胀数据火上浇油，安抚了特朗普的贸易关税将引发新一轮通胀浪潮的紧张情绪。看跌势头可能会持续 几天，但长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。" ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：中美会谈进展超预期，风险偏好明显加强，金价明显下挫；美国三大股 指大幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美元指数涨1.39%报101.81，离岸人民币 大幅升值报7.1996；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨9.05个基点报 4.4729%；COMEX黄金期货跌3.06%报3241.80美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货772.28，现货766.8，基差-648，现货贴水期货；偏空 6、预期：今日关注美国4月CPI、欧元区经济景气指数、日央行会议摘要、英央行行 长讲话、中国信贷数据或公布。中美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market may benefit from the expected increase in risk appetite, and the bond market yield will fluctuate at a low level. A - shares may benefit from the increase in risk appetite due to potential policy support and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks. The bond market price has fully factored in the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, and the bond yield may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Gold still has a long - term positive outlook, but short - term volatility may increase [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 0.27%, - 0.47%, and - 0.16% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by - 2.46%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 2.63% [2]. - A - shares generally rose. The wind All - A Index rose 2.32%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 2.13%, 2.00%, 1.60%, 2.22%, 3.58%, and 5.65% respectively. Growth and blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both rose [3]. - All 30 CITIC industries rose. Industries with relatively large increases included national defense and military industry, communication, banking, machinery, new energy, and comprehensive, with weekly increases of more than 3.5% [4]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the yield of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years decreased, and the yield of those with a maturity of 10 years and above increased, making the yield curve steeper. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.06% compared to April 30, 2025 [5]. - The capital price decreased, and the bond market leverage level increased. As of May 9, 2025, R007 was 1.5805%, down 25.91 BP from April 30, 2025, and DR007 was 1.5409%, down 25.77 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the past week. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 4.97 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, to 6.32 trillion yuan on May 9, 2025 [6]. - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the price of US treasury bonds fell, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of May 9, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond rose 4 BP to 4.37% compared to May 2, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.40% to 7.2402, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell 0.24% to 7.2461 [8]. Commodity Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the spot price of London gold rose 2.30% to $3324.55 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.14% to $3326.30 per ounce [9]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's cumulative export increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 0.6% higher than that in the first three months. Although the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US decreased from 4.5% in January - March to - 2.5% in January - April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of exports to other countries and regions such as ASEAN, the EU, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea increased. The cumulative year - on - year import decreased by 5.2%, 1.8% higher than that in the first three months. The trade surplus in January - April was $368.76 billion, an increase of $113.808 billion year - on - year [10].

贵金属日报：中美贸易谈判推升风险偏好 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月13日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场金调银震，因中美贸易谈判结果超预期提升市场风险偏好，资金从黄金与美债等避险 资产流向股市等风险资产，此外美指和人民币双双走升亦抑制美元和人民币计价贵金属价格。最终黄金 2506合约收报3341.8美元/盎司，-3.06%；美白银2507合约收报于32.795美元/盎司，-0.36%。 SHFE 黄金2508主力合约收报772.28元/克，-2.01%；SHFE白银2506合约收8232元/千克，+1.02%。 source： 彭博,同花顺,南华研究 元/克 黄金：内外价差（进口利润） 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 -20 -10 0 10 20 source： wind,彭博,同花顺,南华研究 元/千克 白银：内外价差（进口利润） -1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 COMEX黄金与金银比 source： 同花顺,南华研究,wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COME ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks exceeded market expectations. Both sides promised to take substantial measures before May 14, 2025, including amending and revoking tariffs on each other's goods and suspending or abolishing non-tariff barrier countermeasures. This positive progress releases a clear policy signal, which helps boost market confidence and is expected to support the continued strengthening of stock indices [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Macro: China and the US issued a joint statement. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will correspondingly cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US will suspend the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China will also suspend the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. China will also suspend or cancel non - tariff countermeasures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [2]. - Overseas: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower US drug prices to match those in other countries [2]. - Stock Indices: In the spot market, China's A - share three major indices opened and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82% to close at 3369.24 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.63%. Most sector indices rose, with national defense and military industry, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and non - banking finance leading the gains. Only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology, public utilities, and beauty care sectors closed lower. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 1.3 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indices closed sharply higher, with the Nasdaq rising 4.35% to 18708.34 points [2]. - Futures: In the futures market, this Friday is the delivery date of the current - month futures contracts, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [2]. Strategy - The joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks exceeded market expectations. The positive progress is expected to support the continued strengthening of stock indices [3]. Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of domestic major stock indices on May 12, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 with a daily increase of 0.82%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10301.16 with a daily increase of 1.72%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2064.71 with a daily increase of 2.63%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3890.61 with a daily increase of 1.16%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2702.62 with a daily increase of 0.87%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5793.67 with a daily increase of 1.26%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6167.46 with a daily increase of 1.40% [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF contracts was 110087, an increase of 36524, and the open interest was 267426, an increase of 20649 [15]. - Basis: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different contract periods (current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter) are provided, along with their changes [41]. - Inter - period spreads: The inter - period spreads (such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, along with their changes [46].

华金证券认为，A股短期震荡偏强的趋势可能进一步加强，基本面预期的改善可能导致A股突破上行。 一是近期A股震荡偏强的核心驱动因素可能进一步加强：首先，政策和流动性宽松是A股"五一"节后走 强的主要驱动因素，此次超预期大幅降低加征关税不会对国内政策和流动性宽松产生影响，反而可能进 一步加大美联储降息和人民币升值的预期，对流动性宽松预期有利；其次，中美缓和带来的风险偏好改 善是推动近期走势偏强的另一个核心因素，本次超预期降低关税对这个因素有进一步的更强的推动。二 是对短期A股震荡上行最大的压制因素可能大幅消减：首先，对加征关税导致的出口回落以及经济和盈 利基本面偏弱的担忧是压制短期A股走势的最大因素，本次超预期大幅降低关税可能大幅改善这种压 制；其次，A股短期持续维持偏低的成交额，主要还是对经济基本面的担心导致保险、基金及外资等机 构资金和增量资金未入市，本次降低关税可能大幅改善机构的风险偏好，一旦A股成交额放大，可能开 启突破上行的行情。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，军工、券商、半导体、汽车、地产等板块走低，有色、银行、家居、煤炭、医药等板块拉 升，光伏产业链、航运概念、跨境电商概念等活跃。 13日早盘， ...

消息面解读：两国达成短期关税减免协议成为市场焦点，中国同意将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%，而美国则将对中国商品的关税从145%降至30%， 双方协议有效期为90天。关税协议的消息引发金融市场剧烈波动：美国国债收益率攀升，10年期收益率触及4.43%，创4月初以来新高。当前市场情绪正经 历从避险向风险偏好的显著转变。贸易紧张局势的缓和极大提振了市场风险偏好，导致资金从黄金等避险资产大规模流出。恐惧与贪婪指数显示市场正从恐 惧区域迅速转向贪婪，这通常预示着金价的进一步承压。流动性指标显示，随着资金涌向风险资产，黄金市场的流动性有所降低，这可能会放大短期内的价 格波动。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易系统在这里， 对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以 随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交 易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金 ...

新华财经北京5月12日电（王姝睿） 市场对全球贸易关系的乐观情绪升温，强化了风险资产与欧元走势 之间的反向关联。近期欧元被视为对冲美国政策不确定性的工具，股市下跌时受益于避险资金流入。随 着贸易紧张局势缓解，风险偏好正在改善，欧元日内下跌。 一些机构仍看好欧元。加拿大皇家银行预测，欧元的势头目前已经停滞，但在今年晚些时候美联储开始 降息时，它应该会回升，到2025年底升至1.17，到2026年底升至1.24，欧元在全球外汇储备中所占的份 额在未来几年可能会增加。 德意志银行今年1月还在预测欧元兑美元今年将跌破平价，但现在预计欧元兑美元将在12月前升至 1.20，到2027年底进一步攀升至1.30。 除此之外，市场下调对欧洲央行降息预期，可能引发重新定价，从而支持欧元。欧洲央行管委施纳贝尔 最近表示，对进一步降息持谨慎态度，她的言论暗示6月决策可能具有更多灵活性。施纳贝尔认为，"保 持利率接近当前水平是适当的"，并称利率已处于中性水平（估计中性利率范围为1.75%至2.25%）；全 球经济动荡正在推高价格压力，欧元区通胀可能在中期内超过2%的目标。 目前市场押注欧洲央行12月存款利率为1.75%，高于此前预计的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. is greater than expected, which is likely to trigger a risk-on sentiment in the market [1] - The firm anticipates that the market will temporarily regain its risk appetite, and the pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may also ease in the short term [1]