证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...

Group 1: PMI Trends - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a return to expansion[8] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, a significant increase of 2.4 percentage points from November, marking a new high for 2025[8] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8% in December from 49.6% in November, driven by favorable weather and policy support[8] Group 2: Export Dynamics - New export orders PMI rose from 47.6% to 49% in December, suggesting potential recovery in export demand[8] - Optimistic scenario indicates a rebound in U.S. consumer goods import demand, supported by textile and electronic exports[8] - Pessimistic scenario highlights potential "export rush" due to Mexico's tariff adjustments and EU carbon tariffs, impacting specific sectors[4] Group 3: Structural Disparities - Large enterprises showed significant PMI recovery, while small enterprises experienced a decline, indicating a mismatch in export capabilities[4] - Supply chain congestion in consumer goods sectors, particularly textiles and electronics, reflects urgent production demands[4] - The disparity in PMI recovery across different enterprise sizes suggests varying capacities for "export rush" activities[4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment last week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.13% to close at 3,968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.25% [1][10] - The Hong Kong stock market started the year positively, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 4%, indicating a positive signal from foreign capital towards emerging markets [1] Industry Performance - Most sectors in the Wande primary industry index declined last week, with Communication Services (+2.13%) and Energy (+1.54%) leading the gains, benefiting from policy expectations and stabilization in commodity prices. Conversely, Utilities (-2.64%) and Healthcare (-1.99%) faced pressure, likely due to risk-averse sentiment and weak consumption [1][10] Fund Issuance - A total of 33 funds were issued last week, including 21 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, and 2 FOFs, with a total issuance of 11.916 billion units [1][16] Fund Performance - The Wande All-Fund Index decreased by 0.31% last week. The Wande Ordinary Equity Fund Index fell by 0.76%, and the Wande Mixed Equity Fund Index declined by 0.63% [5][6] Global Market Overview - Global markets showed a mixed pattern last week, with U.S. stock markets generally retreating, while European markets rebounded moderately, led by a 1.13% increase in the French CAC40. Asian emerging markets performed strongly, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.36% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.01% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in key indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [1][2][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking its first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing improvement [1][2]. - The New Orders Index rose to 50.8%, increasing by 1.6 percentage points, indicating a significant recovery in market demand after five months below 50% [2]. - The Production Index increased to 51.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points, reflecting a positive expansion in manufacturing activities [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.5%, up by 2.4 percentage points, indicating a favorable growth trend [2]. - Large enterprises' PMI reached 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, with both production and new orders indices exceeding 52% [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [4]. - The Business Activity Expectation Index for non-manufacturing reached 56.5%, reflecting a continuous upward trend and strong market expectations [4][5]. - The construction industry saw a significant improvement, with the Business Activity Index at 52.8%, up by 3.2 percentage points, driven by favorable weather and upcoming holidays [4]. Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the combination of effective economic policies and market dynamics is fostering a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with expectations for steady qualitative and quantitative growth in 2026 [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a general decline in various industrial sectors, including power generation, steel production, real estate sales, and consumer goods, indicating a weakening economic environment as of December 2023. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation from coal-fired plants has decreased by 8.5% year-on-year as of December 25, compared to a decline of 7.2% in November, reflecting weak demand during the off-peak season and the impact of a warm winter [1][7] - Industrial operating rates are also showing seasonal weakness, with most sectors, except for downstream automotive tire production, reporting lower year-on-year operating rates [1][7] Group 2: Steel Production - Key steel mills reported a daily average crude steel output decrease of 2.0% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year as of the third week of December [9] - By the fourth week of December, rebar production fell by 10.7% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year, while hot-rolled coil production decreased by 4.6% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - There has been a marginal improvement in the funding availability rate for construction sites, with a 0.15 percentage point increase as of December 23 [11] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt has turned positive month-on-month, increasing by 0.83 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities from December 1 to 30 [15] - Retail sales of passenger cars have also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 17% from December 1 to 28, while wholesale sales fell by 19% [16] Group 5: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - Sales of home appliances remain in negative growth territory, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declining by 48% to 29% year-on-year [17][18] - The production of home appliances is expected to turn positive in January 2024, although there may be disruptions due to the Spring Festival [17][20] Group 6: Port Activity and Trade - Port container throughput remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from December 1 to 28, although the growth rate has slowed compared to November [20] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. has seen a reduced year-on-year decline, indicating some stabilization in trade activities [20]

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI indices show a significant rebound in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, driven by new economic momentum and consumer goods industries, while the effects of debt reduction are easing and export resilience is supporting growth [2][3][25]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth threshold after nine months [2][6]. - The production and new orders indices rose by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points to 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively [6][28]. - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw improvements, with PMIs rising by 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 52.5% and 50.4% [12][18]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The overall consumer goods PMI rose by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, despite a significant decline in the automotive sector PMI, which fell by 5.8 percentage points [15][25]. - The textile and apparel industry PMI increased by 4.5 percentage points to 57.5%, reflecting improvements in travel-related demand [15][25]. Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a recovery in building activities due to easing debt reduction pressures and the implementation of new policies [3][18]. - The new orders index in the construction sector increased by 1.3 percentage points, while the employment index slightly declined [50]. Group 4: Export and Domestic Demand - The domestic orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49% [22][25]. - Port trade volumes increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a high level of activity [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI index shows a recovery driven by new momentum and the consumer goods sector, with a reduction in the debt-extraction effect and resilient exports supporting the index [1][4][53]. Group 1: PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth line after nine months, despite a decline in high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operations and freight volume [1][5][53]. - The production and new orders indices increased by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved manufacturing activity [1][5][53]. Group 2: Support from New Momentum - PMI in sectors related to new momentum showed significant improvement, although the sustainability of this trend requires further observation due to a lack of corresponding high-frequency indicators [1][12][54]. - Traditional industries like black metal rolling and chemical fibers saw a decline in PMI, while emerging sectors such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals experienced a rise [1][12][54]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Improvement - The overall consumer goods sector PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in areas less affected by demand exhaustion risks, such as textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points [2][15][54]. Group 4: Construction Sector Recovery - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a reduction in the marginal impact of debt-extraction on investment, supported by the easing of special refinancing bond issues and the implementation of incremental policies [2][18][54]. - Both housing and civil engineering activities improved, with respective increases of 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points [2][18][54]. Group 5: Export Resilience - The domestic order index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, indicating ongoing resilience in exports [2][22][55]. - High-frequency indicators showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points in port foreign trade freight volume, maintaining a high level [2][22][55]. Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The combination of accelerating new momentum and proactive incremental policies suggests that economic growth will remain resilient, despite traditional momentum facing downward pressure [3][27][55]. - The manufacturing PMI's recovery, driven by new momentum and consumer sectors, alongside improvements in the construction PMI, indicates a positive outlook for economic activity [3][27][55].

责任编辑：何俊熹 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April 2025[8] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The production index and new orders index contributed 0.43 and 0.48 percentage points to the PMI, respectively, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing activity[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from November, marking its return to the expansion zone for the first time since the second half of the year[14] - The production index also increased to 51.7%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point rise, driven by stronger demand and improved business sentiment[14] - The raw material purchase price index decreased to 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, alleviating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index slightly increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from November, with significant variation across industries[20] - The construction sector saw a notable rise, with the business activity index reaching 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and upcoming holidays[23] Policy Outlook and Risks - Macro policies are expected to be more proactive in 2026, with early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand still needs to be stimulated to support broader economic recovery[28]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_Author] 解运亮 宏观首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] PMI 超预期背后的信号 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 12 月制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间，且回升幅度超出市场普遍预期，从年末 制造业景气度的表现来看，我们认为可能释放了以下几点信号： ➢ 第一，12 月出口对经济的拉动作用或仍较强。新订单指数的快速增长是 此次超预期的关键支撑，12 月新订单指数为下半年以来首次进入扩张区 ...