中国9月RatingDog制造业PMI录得51.2，预期50.2，前值50.5。中国9月RatingDog服务业PMI录得52.9，预期52.6，前值53.0。RatingDog综合PMI录得52.5，前值51.9。 https://t.co/chEYrlnkbU外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国9月官方制造业PMI为49.8，预期49.7，前值49.4；非制造业PMI为50.0，预期50.2，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.6，前值50.5。 https://t.co/2rafZ7dlfa ...

中国9月官方制造业PMI为49.8，预期49.7，前值49.4；非制造业PMI为50.0，预期50.2，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.6，前值50.5。 https://t.co/2rafZ7dlfa ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导人通话同意平等磋 商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求均出现增长，长假 临近，建议谨慎操作为主。当前PP交割品现货价6780（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-113，升贴水比例-1.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存52.0万吨（-3.0），中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

Group 1: Economic Data - In August, the total social electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The national manufacturing electricity consumption in the same month increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the highest this year [2] - The OECD's mid-term outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and the 2026 forecast remains at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year have been slightly raised [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations, and the final value in August was 53. The preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, both lower than expected and at a three-month low [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, and this week's crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons. As of September 19, the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills has exceeded 1.2 million tons, and it is expected to rise above 1.25 million tons by the end of September [2] Group 2: Project News - The first-phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation. The total investment of the project is 4.6 billion yuan. After the first phase reaches full production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate annually and produce 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [3] Group 3: Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, Shanghai copper, soybean meal, crude oil, plastic [4] - Night trading performance: non-metallic building materials 2.58%, precious metals 32.68%, oilseeds 10.34%, soft commodities 2.53%, non-ferrous metals 18.74%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.97%, energy 3.01%, chemicals 11.88%, grains 1.05%, agricultural and sideline products 3.23% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year-to-Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50 | -0.18, -0.09 | -0.94, -1.91 | 14.02, 8.74 | | | CSI 300 | -0.06 | 0.51 | 14.86 | | | CSI 500 | -0.61 | 1.94 | 25.41 | | | S&P 500 | -0.55 | 3.04 | 13.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | -0.70 | 4.31 | 30.40 | | | German DAX | 0.36 | -1.22 | 18.60 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | 6.50 | 14.03 | | | UK FTSE 100 | -0.04 | 0.39 | 12.85 | | Fixed Income | 10-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.11 | | | 5-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.13 | 0.10 | -0.86 | | | 2-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.61 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | -1.52 | 0.35 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 2.22 | -0.61 | -11.48 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.46 | 9.17 | 43.40 | | | LME Copper | 0.21 | 0.92 | 13.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.94 | 11.20 | 28.57 | | Other | US Dollar Index | -0.08 | -0.63 | -10.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 4.82 | -7.20 | [8]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a reading of 61.7, down from 62.3 [5] - U.S. stocks settled lower, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 200 points and the S&P 500 ending a three-day winning streak [1] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI slowed to 53.6 in September from 54.6 in August, indicating softer growth in services and manufacturing [2] - The U.S. current account deficit decreased by 42.9% to $251.3 billion in the second quarter [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with energy, real estate, and utilities stocks showing the biggest gains [3] - Information technology and consumer discretionary stocks closed lower, bucking the overall market trend [3] Company Earnings - Investors are awaiting earnings results from Cintas Corp., Thor Industries Inc., and KB Home [4]

周二公布的美国9月标普全球服务业PMI初值录得53.9，低于市场预期54，前值位54.5；美国9月标普全球制造业PMI初值 录得52，符合市场预期，前值位53。 标普全球首席经济学家威廉姆森表示，9月份产出进一步强劲增长，为美国企业今年迄今表现最好的一个季度画上了圆 满的句号。PMI调查数据与美国经济第三季度2.2%的年化增长率一致。然而，月度数据显示，经济增长已从7月份的近 期峰值放缓，9月份企业也缩减了招聘，未来生产面临一些下行风险。需求疲软的情况限制了企业定价权。尽管关税再 次被认为是制造业和服务业投入成本上升的一个驱动因素，但能够提高销售价格并将这些成本转嫁给客户的公司数量有 所下降，这暗示利润率受到挤压，但对通胀放缓是个好兆头。制造业方面也有迹象表明，令人失望的销售增长已导致库 存以前所未有的速度积累，这也可能在未来几个月进一步帮助缓解通胀。尽管如此，调查数据仍表明，未来几个月消费 者通胀仍将高于央行2%的目标。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，关税对消费者通胀的影响"并非主要因素"，我们预计关税将是一次性传导效应，到明年年底就 会结束。我们从不考虑政治因素。很多人不相信我们，很多人说我们是出于政治动机，这纯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence in the Eurozone's economic performance, with services outperforming manufacturing, leading to a mixed economic outlook [1] - The Eurozone's September PMI preliminary value shows a significant split, with services rising to 51.4, surpassing the expected 50.5, while manufacturing fell to 49.5 from 50.7, indicating contraction [1] - Germany's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, below the neutral line, while services rebounded to 52.5, reflecting strong domestic demand [1] - France's economic indicators show weakness, with manufacturing PMI declining to 48.1 and services dropping to 48.9, suggesting greater economic pressure [1] - Overall, the Eurozone economy remains on the edge of moderate expansion, with service sector performance offsetting ongoing manufacturing weakness, alleviating some concerns about a deep recession [1] Group 2 - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing above the simple moving average (SMA) support at around 1.1730, indicating a mild bullish trend [2] - The 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are rising steadily below the short-term averages, aligning with limited demand for the USD [2] - Short-term momentum indicators show a neutral overall trend, with the relative strength index (RSI) slightly retreating to around 53 [2] - The Euro to USD is trading above all moving averages, with the 20-period simple moving average providing intraday support at approximately 1.1770 [2]