1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, the PTA market showed an upward trend with a strengthening basis, while the MEG market declined with a weakening basis [2][4]. - The PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate, and its inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents PTA - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.69%, and the basis strengthened to - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4645 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fell below $62, and OPEC+ maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces reduced their positions [3]. - **Trend Expectation**: The previously overhauled PTA capacity will gradually restart, and the inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The downstream polyester start - up rate decreased slightly from a high level, and the terminal demand is expected to weaken further. The PTA processing fee is around 170 yuan, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate in the short term [3]. MEG - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 2.23%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3613 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal both declined. The weekly inventory at East China MEG ports totaled 75.5 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There were differences among long - side and short - side main forces [4]. - **Trend Expectation**: MEG continued to accumulate inventory, with a reduced accumulation rate, but the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants have been shut down for maintenance, temporarily relieving the supply - side pressure. However, the maintenance volume at the low absolute price is lower than expected. There are still expected new capacity put into production in the future, and the MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the PTA market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including inventory accumulation expectations and geopolitical issues affecting oil prices [1][2][3] - As of December 9, the average price of PTA for 2025 is reported at 4754 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% primarily due to falling oil prices and new PTA production capacity impacting market sentiment [1] - The WTI crude oil price has decreased from nearly 75 USD/barrel in June to approximately 58 USD/barrel, indicating a weak overall market for crude oil in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Short-term market analysis suggests that while PTA processing fees are low and supply-side pressures are easing, there is a weak expectation for demand, leading to a potential inventory accumulation in December [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the PTA market from March to May next year, anticipating a recovery in demand as no new PTA production capacity is expected to come online [3] - Seasonal patterns indicate that demand for PTA will decline in January and February, leading to increased inventory levels, but a significant recovery in demand is expected from March to May [3] Group 3 - The PX market is expected to benefit from planned maintenance of PX facilities in mainland China and other countries, which may support PTA prices [4] - Despite the anticipated strong demand for PTA in March to May 2026, the potential for a narrow decline in crude oil prices could negatively impact the PTA market [4] - Geopolitical factors, such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation, may lead to increased crude oil supply, further pressuring oil prices and potentially affecting PTA market dynamics [4]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/11 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,712.00 | -12.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,418.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 643,609.00 | +13508 ...

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with soybean futures (Soybean No. 2) slightly up by 1.79% to 3802.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - As of December 10, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 164,600 long positions and 146,700 short positions in Soybean No. 2, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.12 and a net position increase of 6,205 contracts [1] - The USDA reported that U.S. private exporters sold 136,000 tons of soybeans to China and 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] Group 2 - Market focus is on China's purchasing pace of U.S. soybeans, which is slow and uncertain, leading to cautious market sentiment [2] - U.S. soybean export data has significantly declined year-on-year, while drought conditions in the U.S. Midwest have eased, and South American soybean planting is progressing steadily [2] - The domestic soybean market is characterized by high inventory and high crushing volumes, indicating a loose supply-demand balance, with the market entering a "weak reality pricing" phase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports mainly present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. These data cover price changes, basis differences, and historical percentile positions, providing a basis for investors to understand market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was 9.86 on the relevant day [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are detailed data on spreads between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, far - month and current - month, etc. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread was - 16.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.5584, with historical percentile positions provided, indicating their relative valuation levels [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: The 15 - contract IRR was 1.6378, and the basis of different bond futures contracts had various values and changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the T basis was 1.4325 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract quarters such as the current - quarter and next - quarter, and next - quarter and far - quarter were reported. For example, the TF current - quarter minus next - quarter spread was - 0.0350 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF were - 3.3690 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2602, AG2602, etc. showed price increases or decreases compared to the previous day. For example, the AU2602 contract price rose from 951.54 to 956.40, a 0.51% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes. For instance, London gold rose from 4206.59 to 4227.65, a 0.50% increase [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, gold - silver ratios, etc. were presented. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was - 5.27, and the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 68.46 [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, etc. had changes. Inventory data of precious metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX also showed different trends [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 1.72% from 1483.65 to 1509.10, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 50.71% from 1948.77 to 960.51. The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 0.69% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602 (main contract) and others had price changes, and the basis of the main contract changed by 41.01% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.50%, and Shanghai port berthing increased by 5.83%. Monthly export amount increased by 8.19%. Overseas economic indicators such as the euro - zone comprehensive PMI increased by 0.57% [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2152.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.04% observed [1] - East Wu Futures indicates that the caustic soda market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand, with no production cuts expected from alkali plants, leading to sustained supply [2] - South China Futures notes that the liquid caustic soda market in North China is facing challenges with sales, despite slight improvements in downstream demand, and prices remain low [2] Group 2 - Central Plains Futures reports that the liquid caustic soda market in Shandong is seeing slight price increases due to inventory declines, but overall supply remains ample [3] - The overall supply-demand balance for caustic soda is weak, with the 2601 contract expected to continue its downward trend [3] - The market is closely monitoring fluctuations in chlor-alkali facilities and liquid chlorine prices, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term adjustment**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term consolidation**: Palm oil [1] - **Short - term bullish oscillation**: Soybean oil [1] - **Range - bound oscillation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Upside pressure**: Cotton [1] - **Short - term rebound**: Red dates [1] - **Rebound and sell short**: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Soybean Meal - The purchase of US soybeans has started, but the US market has doubts about the optimistic outlook for US soybean exports. Weak export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at high levels. This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but were higher year - on - year, with short - term supply sufficient. The US Department of Agriculture's December report on US soybeans was basically flat month - on - month, and the ending stocks were also flat. There was a short - term adjustment, and there was a tendency for a stop - fall consolidation. Short - selling should be cautious [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. In the off - season of consumption, spot prices are reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. It follows the trend of soybean meal, with a short - term adjustment. The short - term trend is treated as a range above 2270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. Palm oil - On November, Malaysian palm oil inventory data showed a month - on - month increase, maintaining a stock - building state, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of December decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. Weak data depressed the futures price, and it closed down yesterday. It is in short - term consolidation [1][10]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the five - year average. It closed slightly down yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - growing areas. It is in a short - term bullish oscillation, and a large - range market is expected this week. Attention should be paid to the boost from the palm oil side [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month, but there is diversification in imports. The latest data on Canadian rapeseed shows that the 2025 production is higher than market expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil rebounded technically after hitting a previous low yesterday, and the stabilization needs to be observed. It is in range - bound oscillation [1]. Cotton - The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season cotton planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to move in an oscillatory manner. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales have been relatively fast. The circulation of low - basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and the cost - side support has increased, but the upward adjustment of the production forecast needs to be noted. The downstream textile enterprises' cash flow has been repaired, and the demand resilience has been reflected. The narrowing of the decline in foreign trade in November has further supported the cotton price, but there is still pressure from high inventory and a dense hedging pressure area. It is under upside pressure [1][12][14]. Red Dates - At the end of the acquisition, the spot price rebound has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new - crop listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation about a large - scale production cut of new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. The spot price has stopped falling under the cooling background. Short - term rebound opportunities are recommended to be observed [1][18]. Live Pigs - The short - and medium - term market supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is limited. The spot price is difficult to support. The futures market is disturbed by epidemic prevention and control and macro - sentiment, and there is differentiation in the price difference between contracts. The contract 03 is more likely to be disturbed by short - term funds. For contract 01, the market has started to trade the expectation of the peak - season curing demand and the large - scale slaughter in the second half of the month, and the market volatility is expected to increase. For contract 01, short - term long - position risks need to be avoided. The contract 03 lacks fundamental support but has intense capital games. Attention can be paid to short - selling on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse - spread opportunity. Attention should be paid to the spot price follow - up and curing situation [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons month - on - month and an increase of 227.49 million tons year - on - year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 18.44 million tons (2.51%) month - on - month and an increase of 168.49 million tons (30.80%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 4.13 million tons (3.43%) month - on - month and an increase of 48.14 million tons (70.74%) year - on - year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises were 8.49 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period and 0.77 days from the same period last year. The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have changed little, the oil mill crushing volume remains relatively high, and the soybean meal de - stocking process is slow, which suppresses the rise of the spot basis [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, flat month - on - month; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons month - on - month; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, flat month - on - month. The rapeseed meal spot market is dull, downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is cautious, the overall trading activity is insufficient, the delivery process is slow, and the effective demand release is limited. There is no strong driver in the off - season of consumption, and it follows the trend of soybean meal [7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025 (the 49th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons (4.62%) month - on - month and an increase of 16.70 million tons (32.32%) year - on - year. From December 1 - 10, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month. In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month, imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month [10]. Cotton - **International situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with an inspection progress of about 40.2%. In late November, the precipitation in the main cotton - growing areas increased, which was not conducive to the harvest. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the Minimum Support Price (MSP), but there was still rainfall in the south and central regions in late November, which was not conducive to MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new - season cotton, with expected heavy rainfall in the main producing areas by the end of November [12]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 495 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The total national production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 768 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost flat month - on - month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory increased to 446 million tons, 15 million tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 361 million tons, about 40 million tons higher than the same period; the inventory in the main inland provinces increased to 18.27 million tons, 0.16 million tons lower than the same period. The downstream demand has improved seasonally, the export decline in November has slowed down, and the textile and clothing export was 238.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year and an increase of 7.2% month - on - month [13]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in Hotan, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang has ended, and the acquisition progress in other regions is about 80%. The prices in the producing areas are weak. In Kashgar, the acquisition of grey dates is coming to an end, with little unsold inventory, and jujube farmers have a price - holding attitude. In Aksu, the acquisition is also near the end, with a small amount of remaining inventory, and the price has risen slightly. In Alar, the acquisition is at the end, with little unsold inventory and a price increase [17]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons month - on - month and 270 tons lower than the same period [17]. - **Demand**: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [17]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In November, the breeding side had active slaughter, with fierce competition and high pressure on large - scale enterprises. The overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply pressure is expected to gradually ease as the number of fertile sows decreased to 39.90 million in October [20]. - **Demand**: With the cooling, the curing and enema activities in the southwest region have increased, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, and the market has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand growth [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月11日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约拉升涨超4%。 转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月11日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约拉升涨超4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are bearish, with supply remaining high despite a reduction in production scheduling, and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,350 for the 2605 contract [6]. - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. Bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline as wafer production, cell production, and component production all continue to decrease. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55,035 - 56,795 for the 2605 contract [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, a 3.29% decrease from the previous week. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 72,000 tons, a 12.19% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining low. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season. - Basis: On December 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 945 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 182,500 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory was 131,000 tons, a 1.55% increase [6]. - Market trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer production was 11.95GW, a 0.58% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 213,000 tons, a 9.23% increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.07GW, a 4.72% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profit state [11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,700 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: On December 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,300 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market trend: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline compared to the previous day, with the decline rate ranging from 1.08% to 2.08%. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase compared to the previous day, with the increase rate ranging from 10.47% to 109.67%. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number was 7,780, a 3.35% increase from the previous day. The weekly DMC production was 49,200 tons, with no change from the previous day. The daily capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, with no change. The daily DMC price was 13,600 yuan/ton, with no change [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Some contracts showed an increase, and some showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with the change rate ranging from - 0.71% to 0.55%. - Basis: The change in the basis of each contract was different, with the change rate ranging from - 10.00% to 9.21%. - Other indicators: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.56% increase from the previous week [20]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report presents the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon from 2019 - 2025, as well as the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warehouse receipts from 2018 - 2025 [23][29]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the price trends of the polysilicon market from 2025, including the main contract price, basis, and inventory trends [26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Production: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production trends by specification from 2023 - 2025, and the production capacity utilization rate trends of different regions [33]. - Cost: It presents the cost - profit trends of sample regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) from 2022 - 2025 [40]. Polysilicon - The report shows the cost trends of the polysilicon industry from 2023 - 2025, including the price trends of different types of polysilicon, inventory, monthly production, monthly demand, and monthly capacity utilization rate [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance. - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and balance [42][45]. Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [71]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC price and production: It shows the DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends from 2019 - 2025. - Downstream product prices: It shows the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 from 2022 - 2025. - Import - export and inventory: It shows the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC from 2019 - 2025 [48][50][54]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: It shows the waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit trends from 2019 - 2025. - Inventory and production: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly production start rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots from 2019 - 2025. - Demand: It shows the monthly production and sales volume trends of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels from 2018 - 2025 [58][61][63]. Polysilicon Downstream - Wafer: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of wafers from 2021 - 2025. - Cell: It shows the price, production scheduling and actual production, weekly inventory, production start rate, and export trends of cells from 2022 - 2025. - Photovoltaic component: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components from 2021 - 2025. - Photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, import - export trends of photovoltaic films and glass, monthly production trends of photovoltaic glass, and import - export trends of welding strips from 2021 - 2025. - Component cost - profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components, including silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit from 2024 - 2025. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation from 2019 - 2025 [74][77][80].