1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be strong before the holiday due to tight supply - demand, but not to be chased at high prices in the short - term. Hold long PX and short BZ positions. Be cautious about the warehouse receipt pressure of PX01 contract [9]. - PTA is in a high - level volatile market with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions for the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays from late December to early January [10]. - MEG is in a weak trend. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. There is a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 11, Platts evaluated Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea at 835.67 dollars/ton and 814.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 4 dollars/ton from the previous day. The FOMC cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10 [4]. - In the Platts closing assessment, the 1 - 2 month spread of PX continued to narrow. Some Asian PX term contracts have not been settled, and the volume of 2026 contracts is much lower than that of 2025 [6]. Fundamentals - PX: Domestic production start - up rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). GS has a shutdown plan in December, Satorp in the Middle East restarts 700,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans for Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong Refining [9]. - PTA: Mainland China's device changes are small this week, with a load of 73.7%. A 550,000 - ton device in Taiwan, China is shut down, and the load drops to 30% [7]. - MEG: As of December 11, the overall start - up load in mainland China is 69.93% (down 3.01% from the previous period), and the start - up load of syngas - made MEG is 72.17% (down 0.41% from the previous period) [7]. - Polyester: The start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remains stable at about 75%. The overall polyester load in mainland China is about 91.2% [7][8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is - 1, PTA trend intensity is - 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [9]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: PX, PTA, and PF closed up, while MEG and SC closed down on the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA, and short - fiber processing fees increased, while MEG, naphtha, and Brent crude oil prices decreased [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The supply - demand pattern of PTA has not changed significantly recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, and the spot basis fluctuates within a range. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has risen to around 820,000 tons, reaching a high for the year. The arrival at the main port this week is moderately high, and with some domestic - trade trucks delivering into the tank, the short - term explicit inventory of ethylene glycol will still accumulate moderately. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in December is neutral, but there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term, and the market sentiment is mainly under pressure. As the delivery period approaches, the market will gradually limit positions, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the document. 3.2每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis slightly strengthened. Polyester factories mainly replenished their stocks. The main - port goods in December were negotiated and traded at a discount of around 20 to the 01 contract, with sporadic transactions at a discount of 23 - 25 to the 01 contract. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at a discount of 26 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was between 4,600 and 4,680. Today, the mainstream spot basis is 01 - 21. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased [5][6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. In the night session, ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined. The spot negotiation was around a discount of 5 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated weakly, and the buying interest in the market was average. The spot negotiation for this week and next week was around a discount of 7 - 20 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the market dropped rapidly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 3,576 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market declined during the day. In the morning, the negotiation for recent shipments was around 434 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments from the end of December to early January was around 437 - 438 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped rapidly, and at the end of the session, the recent shipments were traded at around 424 US dollars/ton, and the shipments from the end of December to early January were traded at around 429 US dollars/ton. There were appropriate traders participating in buying during the day. The inventory in the East China region is 758,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the document. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and the supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in port inventory and the supply - demand gap [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers from December 10 to December 11, 2025, as well as the changes in basis and processing fees [13]. 3.5 PTA每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The futures market fluctuated and closed higher, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly recently. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5][6]. 3.6 MEG每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The price center declined weakly, the inventory increased, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The port inventory has reached a high for the year. There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term. It is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3.7影响因素总结 - **Likely to be Bullish**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of around 10 days [8][9]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted with temperature rise. The plant was shut down for a short - term maintenance at the end of November [9]. 3.8 当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [10].

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 1002.0 | -42.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1131.0 | 1062.0 | 1053.0 | -78.0 | -9.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1010.0 | 964.0 | 956.0 | -54.0 | -8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3069 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton or 1.54% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 87,900 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices fell, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2940 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 40 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 92,200 tons [3][12] - National rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week-on-week to 1,787,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 392,900 tons; social inventory fell by 224,300 tons to 3,387,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 452,800 tons [3][12] - The supply-demand data appears strong, with many regions experiencing specification shortages, providing strong support for price trends; however, market sentiment remains cautious due to expectations of increased steel mill restarts in January and weakening demand in the off-season [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 757 CNY/ton, down 12 CNY/ton or 1.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 320,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 1,000 contracts [4][13] - Port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 1,203,600 tons to 161,114,700 tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 1,500,000 tons to 8,834,000 tons [4][13] - Supply from Australia has stabilized, while Brazil's shipments have decreased; demand is affected by increased annual inspections and the maintenance of 13 blast furnaces [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1035 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton or 3.27%, with an increase in open interest by 3,764 contracts [5][14] - Spot prices in Shanxi's Linfen region for lean coal decreased to 895 CNY/ton, while other coal prices also saw declines [5][14] - Supply recovery is slow due to some coal mines being shut down; downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and procurement is cautious due to reduced profits in coking enterprises [5][14] Coking - The coking futures contract closed at 1491.5 CNY/ton, down 35.5 CNY/ton or 2.32%, with a decrease in open interest by 631 contracts [6][15] - Spot prices for metallurgical coke at the port fell to 1440 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton [6][15] - The second round of price reductions for coke has begun, with expectations of expanded losses for coking enterprises; steel mills are also increasing maintenance, leading to a decline in demand [6][15] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5712 CNY/ton, down 0.49%, with an increase in open interest by 10,182 contracts [7][16] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5770 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton, with procurement volume down by 1,300 tons [7][16] - Production costs remain high, leading to increased willingness to reduce or halt production; inventory levels are at record highs due to weak demand [7][16] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5418 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 480 contracts [8][17] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5660 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton, with a slight increase in procurement volume [8][17] - High production costs and weak demand are leading to increased intentions to reduce or halt production, with some companies already ceasing operations [8][17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-12 纸浆盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 油脂：近期或震荡盘整，关注进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：进口豆溢价成交，双粕或延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡运行 生猪：基本面依旧宽松，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：宽幅震荡，仍无强驱动 合成橡胶：盘面情绪偏暖 棉花：棉价走强，后续关注库存变动 白糖：短期下方支撑较强 纸浆：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 双胶纸：情绪低迷，窄幅震荡 原木：买方接货意愿低迷，原木震荡走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 逻辑:昨日纸浆期货大幅波动，夜盘期间05合约大幅上涨，一度接近涨 停，随后日盘价格有所回落，但依旧录得显著上涨。从消息面来看，夜盘 盘面异动时并无明显产业消息，在日盘期间银星公布涨价信息。我们认为 昨日的价格异动更多来自于资金端，而非信息面。基本面角度看，近期产 业消息面偏多变化。1、针、阔叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于 下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价格上涨仍能向下传导。随着内盘针阔价差 的收窄，阔叶浆 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月12日，上期所原油主力合约收跌1.27%，报436元/桶。沪金主力合约收涨1.24%，报 970元/克，沪银主力合约收涨4.56%，报15008元/千克。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 11 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，碳酸锂、沪银 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 下游需求增速放缓 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 【行情分析】 尿素盘面高开低走，尾盘收跌。现货价格涨跌互现，市场受期货盘面情 绪影响，略显僵持。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，上游装置停车与复产并 存，气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中，日产数据依然在 19-20 万吨之间运行， 预计中下旬将有减量。由于原料端价格的上涨，复合肥成品价格同样居高，导 致终端畏高情绪。工厂走货以前期订单发运为主，本期开工负荷增速大幅下 降，环比增长 0.09%，依然同比偏低 2.97%，虽有一定的回升空间，但受制于原 料端高企的价格及终端的疲软心态，预计复产进程有限，若本周华北地区大雪 天气，可能将影响发运，拖延后续备货节奏。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%，目前的供需逻辑相对紧平衡，预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。昨日 美联储降息后，期货市场涨跌互现，对尿素影响较小，目前看来尿素驱动不 足，日产降低缓慢，而需求增量有限，预计盘面将弱势盘整。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1651 元/吨开盘, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利多驱动不足，煤焦持续下挫 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1491.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.54 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 631 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。近期，原材料焦煤基本面预期疲弱，拖累焦炭期货弱势运行， 但考虑到 12 月国内重要会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预 期，焦炭下跌持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽 松。 焦煤：12 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1035 点，日内下跌 4.39%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.10 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3764 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 ...