Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Projections - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, with major economic indicators performing better than expected, and the total economic output is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1]. - The central economic work conference identified eight key tasks for the upcoming year, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Economic Development - External factors such as geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and instability in global supply chains are impacting economic growth [2]. - Domestic issues include weak consumer demand, insufficient investment growth, and challenges faced by enterprises, leading to difficulties in production and sales [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Actions - The government plans to implement policies to stimulate consumption and investment, including a special action plan to boost consumer spending and a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [3]. - There is a need to optimize the use of local government special bonds and enhance the role of new policy financial tools to invigorate private investment [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of risk management, particularly in addressing local government debt and ensuring financial stability [5]. - Measures will be taken to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and to support the resolution of risks in local small financial institutions [5].

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Economic Performance - The overall economic indicators for this year are expected to meet targets, with a growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [1]. - The International Monetary Fund and other institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth for the next two years [1]. Policy Implementation - In 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, focusing on maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and price stability [2]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [2]. Consumer Market - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching nearly 60% by November [3]. - Plans to enhance consumer spending include implementing a rural income increase plan and improving basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3]. Investment Expansion - There is substantial investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and social welfare improvements, with plans to increase central budget investment and optimize local government bond usage [4]. - Measures will be taken to stimulate private investment and shift fixed asset investment towards stabilization [4]. Technological Innovation - The establishment of major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area has made significant progress [5]. - Support for basic research and the development of new technologies will be prioritized, alongside enhancing intellectual property protection [6]. Market Regulation - The government will continue to promote a unified national market and regulate local government economic activities, including a list of encouraged and prohibited investment practices [7]. - Efforts will be made to improve the business environment and deepen reforms to attract foreign investment [8]. Environmental Initiatives - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and promote green energy sources, with a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries [10]. - Plans include the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories to foster sustainable development [10]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment policies will be prioritized to address the current supply-demand imbalance in the job market, with measures to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [11]. - Strategies will be implemented to prevent the emergence of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [11].

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, summarized economic work for 2025, analyzed the current economic situation, and outlined tasks for 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Principles - The conference emphasized "Five Musts" for economic work: fully tapping economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, ensuring both flexibility and effective management, investing in both physical and human capital, and honing internal capabilities to face external challenges [3][4] Group 2: Policy Directions - The conference highlighted the need for a policy orientation focused on stability and progress, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement, while leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [9] Group 3: Eight Key Tasks - The conference outlined "Eight Persistences" as key tasks for the upcoming year, including prioritizing domestic demand, driving innovation, tackling reforms, maintaining openness, promoting coordinated development, leading with "dual carbon" goals, prioritizing people's livelihoods, and ensuring bottom-line security [12] Group 4: Domestic Market Focus - The conference prioritized building a strong domestic market, with tasks such as formulating a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income, optimizing the implementation of new policies, and increasing central budget investments [15] Group 5: Innovation and Reform - The conference called for a focus on innovation, with tasks including developing a comprehensive plan for education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international technology innovation centers in key regions [17] Group 6: Market Regulation - The conference stressed the importance of reform to enhance high-quality development, including establishing a national unified market construction regulation and addressing issues like overdue payments to businesses [19] Group 7: External Cooperation - The conference emphasized the need for external openness and cooperation, with plans to gradually expand service sector openness and promote digital and green trade [22] Group 8: Coordinated Development - The conference highlighted the importance of coordinated development, focusing on rural-urban integration and regional collaboration, with specific tasks aimed at promoting high-quality county economic development [25] Group 9: Green Transition - The conference underscored the commitment to a green transition, with plans to develop a national energy strategy and enhance carbon trading market construction [27] Group 10: Livelihood Improvements - The conference aimed to prioritize people's livelihoods, with initiatives to support flexible employment, increase educational opportunities, and reform healthcare payment methods [31] Group 11: Real Estate Stability - The conference addressed the need to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, inventory reduction, and promoting the construction of quality housing [34]

Group 1 - The primary task is to maintain domestic demand as the leading force and build a strong domestic market, which is crucial for economic stability amidst international uncertainties [2] - The second task emphasizes innovation-driven growth, highlighting the need for increased market demand to stimulate corporate innovation and economic momentum [2] - The third task focuses on deepening reforms to enhance high-quality development, which is essential for generating new momentum and increasing market vitality [4] Group 2 - The fourth task is to uphold openness and promote win-win cooperation across multiple fields, despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism in the international environment [4] - The fifth task stresses coordinated development to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, which is vital for achieving common prosperity and modernization [5] - The sixth task is to lead with "dual carbon" initiatives, committing to comprehensive green transformation and environmental protection [6] Group 3 - The seventh task prioritizes people's livelihoods, aiming to improve the quality of life and ensure that every citizen experiences happiness and pride [8] - The eighth task involves maintaining a strong bottom line by proactively and prudently addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese A-shares experienced a significant increase on December 12, with major indices showing positive performance, driven by optimistic signals from the Central Economic Work Conference regarding future economic policies [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889 points, up by 0.41% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258 points, up by 0.84% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3194 points, up by 0.97% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 20,922 billion yuan, an increase of about 2,351 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized a policy direction focused on stability and quality improvement for the upcoming year - The conference outlined eight key tasks for China's economic work by 2026, with a strong emphasis on domestic demand and building a robust domestic market as the top priority [1]. - Analyst Xiong Yue from Dongguan Securities noted that the conference's positive policy signals could support economic recovery and enhance market risk appetite, suggesting that A-shares may continue to rise [1]. Sector Performance - According to statistics from Dongfang Caifu, sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors saw significant gains, with the precious metals sector leading with a 3.81% increase [2].

央视网消息：2025年的中央经济工作会议部署了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务。坚持内需主导成 为连续两年经济工作的首要任务，会议首次提出制定实施城乡居民增收计划。"居民收入增长和经济增 长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步"，是"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。 ...

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to effectively manage financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions, real estate companies, and local government financing platforms, while strictly controlling new risks and addressing existing ones [1] - In November, China's financial data shows an increase of 15.36 trillion yuan in RMB loans for the first 11 months, with a cumulative social financing scale of 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice to support green factory construction through green finance policies, focusing on R&D, industrial application projects, and zero-carbon factory construction [1] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation is soliciting opinions on the "Compliance Guidelines for Pricing Behavior in the Automotive Industry," which aims to standardize pricing practices and address issues like failure to clearly mark prices and false promotions [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has released the "Supervision and Management Measures for Commercial Bank Custody Business (Trial)," which includes significant modifications such as new requirements for custodians of non-standard products and prohibitions on providing liquidity support [2] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking opinions on the strictest public fund sales behavior regulations, targeting long-standing industry issues such as "heavy sales, light service" and introducing new rules for performance display and sales practices [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has disclosed that it will monitor stocks with significant volatility and conduct special investigations into major corporate events [3] - Reports indicate that the market for bank wealth management products has reached a historical high of approximately 33.8 trillion yuan, with a growth of about 3.43 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year [3] Group 4 - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, marking a new low [4] - Douyin has launched a new payment feature called "Douyin Buy," allowing consumers to pay at merchant locations through the Douyin app [4] Group 5 - Moore Threads plans to use 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management, investing in safe and liquid principal-protected products [5] - Enjie Co. intends to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares, with stock resuming trading on December 15 [6] - Kehua Data has launched a high-density liquid-cooled computing POD in collaboration with Muxi Co. and has engaged in business partnerships with domestic GPU chip manufacturers [6] Group 6 - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the Nasdaq down 1.69%, influenced by significant drops in companies like Caterpillar and Nvidia [6] - The EU has agreed to indefinitely freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe [6] - U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia after discussions with their leaders [6] Group 7 - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes domestic demand and introduces a plan for increasing income among urban and rural residents, indicating a shift towards relying on domestic consumption for economic growth in 2026 [7] - The emphasis on quality investment expansion reflects a focus on urban renewal and optimizing the use of special bonds [7]

央视网消息：刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议部署了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务，其中将"坚持 内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为2026年经济工作的首要位置。专家表示，坚持内需主导，做强国内 大循环，推动市场由大到强。 ...

今年以来，我国共分4批向地方下达3000亿元超长期特别国债资金，支持消费品以旧换新。随着政策效应加快释放，带动 数字、绿色等新型消费发展向好，也推动相关行业绿色转型。 会议明确提出"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"。在付一夫看来，该举措旨在从根源上解决问题，预计后续会出台专门的增收 方案，或将通过工资与经济增长同步、劳动报酬与生产率提升同步的机制，夯实消费能力基础。同时，会议还在供给侧聚焦优 质升级，既扩大商品与服务供给，又优化"两新"政策，契合居民向品质型、发展型消费升级的需求。尤为关键的是，破除制度 障碍，清理消费领域不合理限制，针对性破解汽车、文旅、医疗等领域堵点，释放服务消费潜力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，明年稳增长的发力点将更加强调从需求侧入手，通过提高居民消费 能力与消费意愿共同发力。同时，2026年以及"十五五"时期政策层面将更为重视服务消费潜力的释放。 据商务部数据，今年1月份至11月份，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以 旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件，电动自行车以旧换新 ...