Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The upstream fluctuations of short - fiber and bottle - chip have amplified, and both are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber 2512 decreased from 6192 to 6176, a change of - 16; short - fiber 2601 decreased from 6236 to 6222, a change of - 14; short - fiber 2602 remained unchanged at 6224. The PF12 - 01 spread changed from - 44 to - 46, a change of - 2; the PF01 - 02 spread changed from 12 to - 2, a change of - 14. The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 123 to 119, a change of - 4. The short - fiber主力持仓量 decreased from 123296 to 110425, a change of - 12871; the short - fiber主力成交量 decreased from 64616 to 47495, a change of - 17121. The short - fiber华东现货 price decreased from 6.315 to 6.295, a change of - 20. The short - fiber产销率 increased from 38% to 56%, a change of 18% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price of bottle - chip 2512 increased from 5736 to 5750, a change of 14; bottle - chip 2601 increased from 5718 to 5724, a change of 6; bottle - chip 2602 increased from 5756 to 5776, a change of 20. The PR12 - 01 spread increased from 18 to 26, a change of 8; the PR01 - 02 spread changed from - 38 to - 52, a change of - 14. The bottle - chip主力基差 decreased from 27 to - 4, a change of - 31. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 decreased from 40157 to 39714, a change of - 443. The bottle - chip主力成交量 increased from 39984 to 111874, a change of 71890. The bottle - chip华东现货 price decreased from 5745 to 5720, a change of - 25; the bottle - chip华南现货 price decreased from 5770 to 5750, a change of - 20 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The decline of short - fiber futures narrowed. Zhejiang and Jiangsu factories' spot quotes remained stable, while those in Fujian dropped by 50. The mainstream quotation of semi - dull 1.4D was 6450 - 6500 for ex - factory or short - distance delivery, with discounts available for negotiation. Affected by the decline in oil prices, low - point price transactions of short - fiber increased in the morning. The mainstream negotiation price of semi - dull 1.4D was in the range of 6150 - 6400. Affected by the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the sales of factories showed high - low differentiation, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 56% by 3:00 pm [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: In the morning, the upstream raw material futures fell weakly, and polyester bottle - chip factories mostly lowered their quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market rebounded during the day, but most transactions were concentrated in the previous range. After the futures rose in the afternoon, the market follow - up was limited, and the price gap between different brands was large. Orders from November to January were mostly traded at 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton ex - factory, slightly lower at 5610 - 5640 yuan/ton ex - factory, and slightly higher at 5780 - 5810 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of short - fiber is 0, and the trend intensity of bottle - chip is 0, referring only to the daily - session price fluctuations of the main contracts on the report day [2][3].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, the supply - demand side of styrene lacks upward drivers, and with the increase in US crude oil inventories, the prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [6][8] - For trading strategies of both pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pure Benzene - Upstream: OPEC decided to increase production in December but suspend it in Q1 next year. There are many uncertainties in the situations of Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, and oil prices are volatile in the short term. Sinopec lowered the listed price of pure benzene, large integrated plants increased external sales, and market transactions were light. The arbitrage window between Shandong and East China has closed, and the expected imports in November are high, resulting in a weak market atmosphere [6][10] - Supply: Dalian Fujia's 350,000 - ton pure benzene plant restarted, Luoyang Petrochemical's 140,000 - ton plant had a short - stop, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 240,000 - ton plant is expected to restart in mid - to - late November, with relatively ample supply of petroleum benzene. For hydrogenated benzene, some plants were under maintenance while others restarted. The operating rate decreased week - on - week but is expected to increase in the middle of the month [6][13] - Demand: The downstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased, profits continued to be in the red, and the inventory of major downstream products was high. The main ports of pure benzene may continue to see a slight increase in inventory [6][14][16] Comprehensive Analysis - Styrene - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand of styrene decreased, the inventory at the main ports decreased month - on - month, the basis fluctuated slightly, the price difference between East China and Shandong weakened, and the inter - regional arbitrage window remained closed. Some plants restarted or increased production, while others planned maintenance. New plants are expected to increase supply [8][30] - Downstream: The operating rate of EPS decreased, while those of ABS and PS increased slightly. The inventory of EPS and PS decreased, and the inventory of ABS increased month - on - month [33][35] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Pure Benzene - Price: Includes domestic and foreign prices, price differences between varieties and regions, and profit data of the industrial chain [39][42][44] - Operating rate: Covers the operating rates of pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and downstream products [61][63] - Inventory: The inventory at the pure benzene ports is presented [62] 3.2 Styrene - Price: Includes domestic and foreign prices, price differences between regions and foreign markets, and profit data of the industrial chain [69][72][74] - Operating rate: Covers the operating rates of styrene and its downstream products [76] - Inventory: The inventory at the styrene ports in East and South China is presented [81]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline due to the realization of inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, while silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the price - supporting sentiment from the ore end [2][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward [2][15]. - Coking coal is expected to see a valuation decline due to the repeated supply expectations [2][16]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 763.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The open interest decreased by 11,250 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and HC2601 was 3,242 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%). Open interest and trading volume changed. Spot prices in different regions had minor fluctuations. Basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased in quantity and price. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data in November and October showed various trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the price of manganese ore rose. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11]. - **News**: There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in November. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%, and there were new capacity plans [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased by 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [16]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different log contracts decreased slightly. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of various log types were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: China decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to face inventory build - up pressure and decline from high levels [2][4] - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate around high levels [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 765.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.59%). The previous day's position was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores remained stable, while prices of some domestic ores decreased [4] - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project on November 11 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,252 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [8] - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. There were also changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in November [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: There were price changes in futures contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Spot prices and various price differences also had corresponding changes [12] - **News**: There were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke, and changes in the tender quantity of a large steel group [12][13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of JM2601 was 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (- 0.4%); J2601 was 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [16] - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were price, trading volume, and position changes in different log futures contracts. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while others had slight changes [19] - **News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) is expected to experience wide - range oscillations, with Silicon iron affected by sector sentiment resonance and ferromanganese supported by price - holding sentiment at the ore end [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5588, up 62 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 165,588 and an open interest of 162,088. Silicon iron 2605 closed at 5654, up 62, with a trading volume of 3,798 and an open interest of 10,807 [1] - Ferromanganese 2601 closed at 5820, up 60, with a trading volume of 213,766 and an open interest of 354,763. Ferromanganese 2605 closed at 5878, up 64, with a trading volume of 15,756 and an open interest of 45,381 [1] - **Spot Data** - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of ferromanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data** - The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 01 futures) was - 368 yuan/ton, down 62. The spot - futures spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, down 60 [1] - The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2601 - 2605 was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] - The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 232 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 224 yuan/ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Coal and Coke News** - On November 6th, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal, the raw material for semi - coke, was 720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The auction volume was 7.8 tons, down 2.8 tons. The average transaction price was 783.36 yuan/ton, up 78.39 yuan/ton. The lowest auction price was 773 yuan/ton, and the highest was 790 yuan/ton [1] - **Ferroalloy Price News** - On November 10th, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 (+50), in Ningxia 5200 - 5250, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 (+25), in Gansu 5150 - 5250, and in Inner Mongolia 5150 - 5250. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5700, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5650 - 5700, and in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 (-10), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Ferroalloy Tendering News** - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 16,000 tons of ferromanganese in November, 500 tons less than in October. The tender notice for 75B silicon iron was for 2716 tons, 240 tons less than in October [3] - **Ferroalloy Production News** - From January to October 2025, the total national production of ferromanganese was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia producing 438.51 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the national total. There are currently 28 operating factories in Inner Mongolia, and 13 have new production capacities, which are expected to be launched from November 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026. The current monthly production of ferromanganese in the factories to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026 is about 16.1 million tons, and the subsequent new monthly production is expected to be about 25.9 million tons. Over 90% of the new production capacity is for 6517 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of ferromanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand improvement of LPG is limited, and the valuation of the futures market is relatively high. The supply - demand gap of propylene is narrowing, and there is short - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: For LPG futures, PG2512 closed at 4,323 yesterday with a 1.19% daily increase and 4,329 in the night session with a 0.14% increase; PG2601 closed at 4,239 yesterday with a 0.93% daily increase and 4,242 in the night session with a 0.07% increase. For propylene futures, PL2601 closed at 5,905 yesterday with a 0.14% daily increase and 5,908 in the night session with a 0.05% increase; PL2602 closed at 5,934 yesterday with a 0.30% daily increase and 5,945 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PL2603 closed at 5,892 yesterday with a 0.58% daily increase and 5,911 in the night session with a 0.32% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2512, the trading volume yesterday was 82,991, an increase of 16,413 compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 88,811, a decrease of 1,433. For PG2601, the trading volume was 20,350, an increase of 1,173, and the open interest was 41,066, an increase of 1,756. For PL2601, the trading volume was 1,222, a decrease of 740, and the open interest was 5,520, an increase of 105. For PL2602, the trading volume was 32,642, an increase of 7,357, and the open interest was 6,545, an increase of 50. For PL2603, the trading volume was 51,745, an increase of 5,167, and the open interest was 15,114, an increase of 846 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 147 yesterday (178 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 227 yesterday (238 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 140 yesterday (- 282 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 55 yesterday (- 97 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 80 yesterday (- 72 the day before) [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.5% (73.9% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.6% (68.0% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 42.2% (44.9% last week) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On November 10, 2025, the December CP paper - cargo price of propane was 468 dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 462 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar/ton increase. The January CP paper - cargo price of propane was 478 dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s PDH device with a capacity of 15 started maintenance on May 12, 2023, and the end time is to be determined. There are also many other companies with similar maintenance situations [7]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans. For example, Huaxing Petrochemical in Shandong had its whole - plant maintenance from October 22, 2024, to the beginning of November 2025, with a normal production volume of 800 and a loss volume of 800 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic butadiene market declined rapidly, reaching the mid - 2023 level. Ample supply, weak upstream and downstream products, and the external market dampened downstream buying sentiment. However, as prices hit annual lows, some downstream buyers replenished inventory, and the market found short - term support. The market stopped falling and consolidated in the latter part of the week under the influence of synthetic rubber futures [3]. - Although suppliers intended to stabilize or increase prices, market sentiment remained cautious due to fundamental expectations. The butadiene end improved slightly at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs bought discounted butadiene rubber resources, and spot traders tried to increase prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Overview - **Futures Market**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures contract BR2601.SHF had a closing price of 10,305 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the settlement price was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The trading volume was 128,144 lots, up 53.50%, and the open interest was 83,941 lots, up 191.08%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene in various regions declined. For example, the price in Hangzhou dropped by 1.32% to 7,450 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as Nanjing Yangzi's price dropping by 5.06% to 7,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads in the market, including inter - month spreads, cross - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc. For example, the BR - RU spread was - 4,615 yuan/ton, down 2.71% [3]. Industry Chain Analysis - **Butadiene Market**: Domestic production and imports were abundant, and the supply could not support the market. The prices of upstream and downstream products and the external market were weak, affecting downstream buying sentiment. However, some downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and the market found short - term support [3]. - **Butadiene Rubber Market**: Although there was a restart of a butadiene rubber plant in Sichuan Petrochemical, many plants in East and South China were under maintenance. The butadiene end improved at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs and spot traders were active [3]. Strategy Operation - **Unilateral Strategy**: The BR contract is expected to move in a consolidation pattern [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: After the price spreads widen again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, suppress the futures market. The initial crushing of sugar mills in Yunnan occurred two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start centralized crushing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the domestic new sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, on November 5, 2025, the price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5720 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; SR05 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 48, down 2 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1503, up 0.0071; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.21, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 64.35, unchanged [4].