投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：五一期间金价先抑后扬，伦敦金由 3300 美元一度跌至 3200 美元一线，随后触底回升， 收复前期跌幅。节后开盘首日，金价维持强势运行，伦敦金由 3300 关口拉升至 3400 关口。4 月底金 价下挫我们认为是短期累积涨幅过大，且美国方面对关税政策有所松口，市场风险偏好回升，避险需 求下降，多头了结意愿上升。而本周以来期价快速反弹，很大程度上也说明了多头支撑较强。短期技 术面可关注伦敦金 3400 关口技术压力，沪金关注 800 元技术压力。消息面上，5 月 7 日外交部发言 人宣布我国副总理将在访瑞期间与美国财政部长举行会谈，中美关系趋于缓和，或导致金价冲高回 落。此外，可关注北京时间周四凌晨美联储议息会议结果。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 794.8 | 14.5 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8235 | 53 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 127407 | -33 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 232016 | -8527 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 97109 | 5818 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 124776 | -13760 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 959785 | 96 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 792.31 | 11.02 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8236 | 43 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -4.89 | -5.88 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | 1 | -1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a steepening yield curve ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - The increase in yields is influenced by recent employment data, which is constraining the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Economists at Pimco predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before later this year unless there is a significant slowdown or contraction in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In early April, copper prices dropped significantly due to concerns over U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," reaching a low of 71,320 yuan/ton after the Qingming holiday [1]. - Following the announcement on April 9 to delay high tariffs on some trade partners, global markets, including copper, rebounded sharply [2]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards stability, with the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies diminishing [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations remain stable, with minor disruptions reported, such as protests affecting the Antapaccay copper mine in Peru and a worker's death at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile [3]. - There are signs of easing in copper concentrate supply, with the Panamanian government allowing exports and other mines showing potential for increased output [3]. - As of mid-April, the import copper concentrate processing fee was reported at -34.71 USD/ton, indicating a continued decline over three months [3]. Group 3: Copper and Scrap Price Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has narrowed significantly, reaching a low of 450 yuan/ton in mid-April, the lowest since October 2023 [4]. - The decline in copper prices has led to reduced sales volumes from scrap copper holders, impacting production levels [4]. - Despite negative processing fees for imported copper concentrate, domestic smelting rates have increased, reaching 87.68% by the end of March [4]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - The operating levels of refined copper rod enterprises are higher than in previous years, primarily due to insufficient scrap copper production rather than increased end-user demand [5]. - Seasonal trends in the air conditioning industry suggest a potential decline in copper demand in May, as production enters a down cycle [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a seasonal uptick in May, but the actual demand may be limited due to prior fulfillment of needs through subsidies [6]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Overall, driven by supply dynamics, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The data indicates a marginal decline in the US real estate and manufacturing sectors. The Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's interest rate cut have affected the overnight performance of various assets. The lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates will increase asset price volatility. The statements from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May and the Politburo meeting at the end of April are important observation windows. The A-share market is in a process of strong government support and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, but the potential negative impact of the earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. The sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, and it is expected that the stock index will have a process of retesting the bottom in the short term [2][3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US new housing starts in March were 1.324 million units, lower than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. Building permits in March were 1.482 million units, higher than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 26.4, lower than the expected 2 and the previous value of 12.5. Fed officials continue to send hawkish signals, while the ECB cut interest rates by 25BP yesterday. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded, US bond yields rose, gold fell, the Dow and Nasdaq declined, the S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated [2][7]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market continued its previous rhythm. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The index was relatively stable, but individual stock sentiment was average. The "national team" played a significant role in the eight - consecutive - day rise of the market, but the market volume shrank, indicating that off - market funds are hesitant. The real estate, building materials, social services, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the automotive, non - ferrous metals, communications, and beauty care sectors led the losses. There were 3,125 rising stocks and 2,035 falling stocks in the whole market [3][8]. 1.3 Important News - Trump criticized Powell and called for interest rate cuts. There are differences within the US regarding Powell's dismissal. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU and satisfaction with the progress of negotiations with Japan. He also mentioned the signing of a Ukraine mineral agreement. Fed's Williams believes that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need for a quick adjustment. There were also a series of domestic and international events, including China - Cambodia cooperation, government policy - related statements, and China's stance on trade issues at the G20 meeting [9][10][11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Due to the lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the game between Trump and the Fed, external asset volatility has increased. The statement from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May is an important observation window. The A - share market is in a process of government rescue and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, with the Politburo meeting at the end of April as an observation window. The potential negative impact of earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. It is expected that the stock index will retest the bottom in the short term, and the increase in trading volume in the Shenzhen market is a sign of improvement. The strategy is to go long on the CSI 300 and short on the CSI 1000 in arbitrage, and gradually close positions according to market conditions during the index's retracement. For long - only positions, be stable and operate in a rolling manner without chasing the rise [3][12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also shows changes in trading volume, trading value, open interest, and net positions [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes in major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the trading volume and valuation information. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [35][36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [55].