交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹，站回20均线以上，20均线上下震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费受 煤炭价格上升也稳中有升。镍铁价格继续小幅上涨，成本线进一步上移，但总体镍铁企业仍然亏损。不 锈钢库存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对 镍需求提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121950，基差1040，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230454，+1554，上交所仓单25464，-72，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：20均线上下震荡运行。 利空： 1、金九 ...

尽管终端需求不畅引发价格持续下挫，但鉴于加工费已处于极低水平，且供需基本面未显著恶化，PTA 价格并不具备大幅下跌基础。 加工费处于历史低位 受终端需求疲软及上游PX价格相对坚挺影响，PTA现货价格已处于历史同期低位，加工费亦被压缩至 130元／吨的极低水平。然而，生产过程中的综合成本已达4500元／吨，导致生产端每吨仍亏损约330 元。 聚酯行业自身经营状况尚可。涤纶长丝产品仍有小幅利润，聚酯切片产品亏损不大，整体经营情况较前 期略有改善。目前聚酯企业暂无明确检修计划，开工负荷仍维持较高水平。截至9月22日，国内聚酯开 工负荷为87.43%，同比上升1.95个百分点。 然而，受终端拿货意愿低迷影响，聚酯产品库存持续累积。截至9月18日，涤纶长丝POY、DTY、FDY 的库存可用天数分别为20.6天、31.5天和28.8天，同比分别上升11.35%、18.87%和33.95%。 综上所述，近期PTA价格大幅下挫，主要是受终端需求不畅及市场悲观情绪驱动。但从供需基本面看， PTA供应稳定，库存压力有限，基本面矛盾并不突出。加之其加工费已处于历史低位，预计当前PTA价 格跌势更多由情绪面主导，后市不具备持续深跌基 ...

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has stabilized and rebounded, with an intraday increase of nearly 1% [1] - The coal ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in inflows recently, with a year-to-date share growth of nearly 300%, bringing its current scale to over 10.9 billion yuan [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for a rebound [1] Group 2 - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is expected to lead to production cuts, while the demand-side anticipates a recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season [1] - The fundamental supply-demand situation for coal is expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] - Thermal coal benefits from long-term contract mechanisms and the logic of profit-sharing between coal and power companies, while coking coal, being more market-sensitive, may exhibit greater price elasticity [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **多空因素** - **利多因素**: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] **镍仓单、库存** - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] **镍矿、镍铁价格** | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] **不锈钢生产成本** | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - **策略观点**: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **策略观点**: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - **策略观点**: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - **策略观点**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - **策略观点**: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - **策略观点**: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **策略观点**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].

北京二手房市场分析 上海二手房市场分析 成交套数：3,391套（周环比：+20.8%） 成交面积：302,855.55㎡（周环比：+17.0%） 套均面积：89.0㎡/套 市场分析 北京二手房市场近期呈现明显回暖态势。2025年9月第三周（9.15-9.21）成交3,391套，环比大涨20.8%，创6周新高；成交面积302,855㎡同步增长17%。值 得注意的是，6周来成交量呈"W"型波动，8月中旬至9月初持续攀升后短暂回调，本周强势反弹。套均面积89㎡/套降至6周最低，显示中小户型成交占比 提升。市场活跃度显著增强，"金九"行情显现，但后续持续性仍需观察政策面及需求释放节奏。 最新完整周度数据（2025-09-15至2025-09-21）： 近四周平均成交：3,214套/周 市场分析 上海二手房市场近期呈现温和回暖态势。2025年9月第三周（9.15-9.21）成交4,811套，环比增长7.5%，连续两周回升；成交面积390,177㎡，环比增5%。 观察6周数据（8.11-9.21），成交量自8月下旬触底后稳步攀升，累计涨幅达13.7%。值得注意的是，套均面积从83㎡回落至81㎡，显示中小户型交易活跃 度提 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, though the production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively small rise in raw material costs, and the steel production in August is expected to increase [2]. - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to an increase in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously accumulated orders. Meanwhile, holders are more willing to sell, the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,910 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan increase; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,880 lots, with a 3,480 - lot increase; the main contract position is 130,017 lots, with a 1,168 - lot decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity is 89,377 tons, with a 355 - ton decrease [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with a 1,120 - ton increase; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, with a 200 - metal - ton decrease; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a 21,018.74 - ton increase; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a 205,500 - ton decrease; the SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan decrease; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a 26,900 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7379 million tons, with a 39,800 - ton increase; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, with a 5,200 - ton decrease; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a 29,500 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, with a 4.84168 million - square - meter increase; the monthly excavator production is 24,700 units, with a 2,100 - unit decrease; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, with a 1,900 - unit decrease; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks it is appropriate to cut rates twice more this year [2]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna believes the current interest rate level is appropriate and the central bank can handle downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras thinks the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]. - On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is accelerating its release, and production has rebounded significantly [2].

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-09-22 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：供需博弈剧烈，预计区间震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：9月19日，l主力合约收盘于7169元/吨，PP主力合约收盘于6914元/吨，LP价差为255元/吨。LDPE均价为9593.33 元/吨，环比-0.07%，HDPE均价为7957.50元/吨，环比-0.00%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7576.47元/吨，环比- 0.07%。LLDPE华南基差收于407.47元/吨，环比-1.28%，9-1月差81元/吨（+6）。基差走缩，月差走阔。生意社聚丙烯现 货价报收7020元/吨（-0.73%）。PP基差收106元/吨（-88），基差走缩。9-1月差14元/吨（+140），月差走阔。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：中国聚乙烯生产开工率80.36%，较上周+2.32个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量63.10万吨，环比+2.97% ...

9月22日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，沪铝期货呈现震荡走势，截至发稿主力合约报 20760.00元/吨，震荡走低0.29%。 成本端，据金瑞期货介绍，国内煤炭价格涨幅略扩大、氧化铝小幅下跌、炭块价格持稳；海外欧洲天然 气价基本持稳、电价跌至低位。 供应方面，中金财富期货指出，几内亚铝土矿复产预期增强，国内港口库存维持高位，开工率较高，过 剩格局未变。国内电解铝供应端产能已达4400万吨，接近产能天花板，未来增量空间非常有限。 需求端，华联期货分析称，目前下游需求已经进入"金九银十"旺季阶段，产业端下游进入传统消费旺 季，开工率回升，国内铝锭累库压力不大，铝材出口有韧性。但高价对消费的抑制效应同样明显，铝价 攀升抑制下游采购意愿。短期关注国庆中秋双节前市场备库需求影响，中期关注风电、光电、特高压输 电、新能源汽车等板块是否维持较高的增长预期。 后市来看，国投安信期货表示，铝下游开工持续季节性回升，年内没有明显过剩预期。但铝锭社库仍未 现拐点，继续关注旺季需求反馈。当前产业驱动不强，沪铝在3月高点位置具备阻力。 ...