11:34 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1050.01 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间: 2025-12- 1.060 1.050 1.040 1.030 1,020 1.010 1.000 990 2025-10-22 2025-10-07 2025-11-11 2025 -- EBC黄金属于持仓报告解读 截至12月1日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1050.01吨，较前一个交易日增加4.58吨。12月1日，现货黄金震荡上涨，盘中最高触及4263.94 美元/盎司，创下六周以来最高，得益于市场避险情绪升温，叠加美联储即将召开的12月会议可能降息的预期，共同推动金价上涨，当天收于4330美元/盎司 附近。 基本面消息，全球股市周一普遍承压，12月伊始市场避险情绪浓厚。美国投资者在关键经济数据和美联储会议前保持谨慎。亚洲市场尤其是日本股市受日本 央行行长植田和男鹰派言论（将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊）拖累。 与此同时，市场目前已将美联储下周会议降息25个基点的概率定价至约87%。这一预期源于多位决策者近期偏 ...

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★特朗普与国家安全团队就委内瑞拉问题举行会议，商讨对委内瑞拉"下一步行动"。 ★日本央行行长植田和男周一在日本中部名古屋向商界领袖发表讲话时表示，日本央行 "将通过分析国内 外经济、通胀及金融市场形势，权衡上调政策利率的利弊，并酌情做出决策"。他补充称，任何加息都将是 对宽松程度的调整,实际利率仍将处于极低水平。 ★据美媒报道，美国特使威特科夫正前往莫斯科会见普京，而普京在关于结束冲突的潜在和平计划谈判前 夕，宣称一个关键的乌克兰城市已被俄罗斯占领。普京在克里姆林宫周一晚些时候发布的一段视频声明中表 示，俄罗斯军队已攻占了乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区的波克罗夫斯克市。乌克兰运今尚未对此声明发表评论, 如果属实,这将是俄罗斯近两年来最重要的战场进展。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | >国技期员 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月02日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ☆☆☆ | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | 文文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Market Conditions - The market anticipates a 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which supports the silver and precious metals market [1] - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Harker, as the next Federal Reserve Chair further boosts confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a consistent supply shortage in silver due to declining production levels, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [1] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the physical market [1] - Short-term leasing rates for silver have surged, indicating a significant supply shortage in the market [1] Price Valuation - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, which is notably higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, suggesting that silver is relatively undervalued within the precious metals sector [1] - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, market risk appetite has risen, and the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals has weakened. The raw material end is tightening, TC is prone to fall but hard to rise, some smelters have maintenance arrangements, and there are expectations of production cuts. Although LME zinc inventories continue to rise, the speed is slow, and the back structure has deepened again, providing some support for zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.31% to 22,300 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose by 0.13% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.97% to 3,051 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents various data charts of basis, spread (including spot premium and discount in different regions, differences between contract months), etc., but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [14][16]. 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Pay Attention to the Ingot - End Starting Situation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 302,000 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the US - dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrate procurement before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average value) [34]. - **Profit**: As of December 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,942 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [41]. - **Processing Fees**: Both domestic and imported TC have continued to decline. As of November 28, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate index was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton [42]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production Profit**: Due to the decline in zinc prices and TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to decline. As of December 1, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,952 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot production in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [51]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window has been closed. As of November 28, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [55]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - Up Rate Declines - **Start - Up Rate**: The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 56.54%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and orders were generally flat [62]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and galvanizing enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material inventory. Due to poor demand, downstream purchases were average, and finished - product inventory fluctuated slightly [65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - Up Rate Fluctuates Slightly - **Price**: The prices of die - casting zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,595 yuan/ton [74]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate increased by 0.28 percentage points to 51.3%. Some enterprises increased production during the week, driving a slight increase in the start - up rate. In the terminal market, electronic orders performed well, while real - estate hardware, auto - parts orders, and luggage zipper orders were generally flat or did not meet expectations [77]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and alloy factories replenished inventory when prices were low, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished - product inventory decreased as shipments improved slightly [81]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Zinc Oxide Start - Up Rate Increases Slightly - **Price**: The price of zinc oxide declined. The average price of zinc oxide ≥ 99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton [89]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.12 percentage points to 57.37%. Some enterprises increased production, driving an increase in the start - up rate. In terms of demand, electronic - grade demand was good, the ceramic - grade terminal's goods - taking rhythm accelerated, but enterprise profits were compressed, feed - grade demand weakened, and rubber - grade orders were relatively stable [92]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased. Enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and previous arrivals were put into storage, resulting in an increase in raw material inventory. Some terminal demand slowed down, leading to a slight accumulation of finished - product inventory [95]. 3.6 Decrease in Arrivals, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of November 27, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 140,800 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. Some smelters had maintenance during the week, and the arrivals in Guangdong and Shanghai were relatively small. Coupled with downstream pick - ups, the zinc ingot social inventory declined. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 3,600 tons, unchanged from the previous period [102]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 28, the SHFE inventory was 95,900 tons, a decrease, and the LME inventory was 52,000 tons, continuing to rise [105]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The report presents relevant data charts, but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [106]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from September 2025 to September 2024, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc ingots in each month [111].

美元走软，因市场重新押注美联储降息，当前市场对12月降息的概率定价从375-400个基点降至350-375个基点，概率达89.4%。 降息预期→暂停降息→再转为降息预期的转变，叠加经济数据转冷及美元需求下降，共同削弱美元走势。 技术层面，美元指数仍处于主要日线需求区间内，难以重返99.80-100.00关口，若失守支撑位则存在下探98.80的风险。 ICMarkets解析美元走势：疲软数据与政策转向施压DXY 随着经济指标持续指向美国经济放缓，美元承压态势延续。制造业活动再度萎缩，订单疲软及多行业动能减弱，令美元承压加剧。基本面恶化加速了市场对 美联储12月会议预期的转变。 投资者正重新定价政策宽松周期启动时间，较数周前预期提前。美国国债收益率自近期高位回落，美元相对于其他主要货币的收益率优势已然削弱。受此影 响，美元指数难以维持上行动能，转而在更宽日线需求区域内进入震荡整理阶段。 美联储预期转向：从降息、暂停再到降息 美元当前疲软的核心驱动力，在于市场对美联储下次决议预期的急剧转变。 2025年第四季度初：市场预期降息 通胀放缓与就业数据降温促使市场提前定价政策宽松，美元在10月持续走弱。 11月中旬：暂停 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国是直通车 这波行情能走多远 黄金又涨了。上周五刚经历剧烈震荡，这周国际现货黄金重新回到每盎司4200美元上方，约等于每克 954元人民币。 12月2日，国际现货黄金价格在4200美元附近徘徊，截至发稿报4217美元/盎司。就在前一天，国际金价 冲到了4264美元，创下近一个半月的新高。 国内黄饰价格也同步走高，多家品牌金饰价格都突破了每克1320元：周生生金价报1336元，周大福、中 国黄金报1328元，老凤祥报1327元。 万得（Wind）资讯数据显示，年内国际金价已经50次刷新历史新高。在不确定性加剧的环境中，黄金 仍然是资金追逐的焦点。 两大动力推高金价 本轮金价走强，主要有两大动力。 长期看，美联储降息预期、美元走势疲软、经济不确定性增加、地缘政治风险等诸多因素共同作用下， 形成了有利于黄金价格上涨的宏观环境。 一方面，美联储进入全面宽松周期。 涨势能否延续？ 工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林分析，这具体表现在三方面： 黄金这波行情能涨到哪？ 一是12月起结束缩表；二是12月降息基本确定，2026年可能以每季度50 ...

国际黄金： 12月2日，当前盘面来看，日线结构上来看，黄金日均线系统依然保持着多头排列状态，说明市场主体 意愿还是偏向于看涨的，但是昨日十字星也透露出多头动能不足的端倪，这种现象是两方面因素导致 的：一是前期连续多日震荡上涨，多头动能已经消耗，技术上也有回修调整的需要；二是基本面炒作美 联储降息预期热度有所降低，没有后续的利多刺激，多头也很难获得持续的上涨动力，出现调整也就在 所难免。 今日早间黄金出现一波快速回撤，回撤4200下方，但尚未破5日线，不过这样的举动已经透露当前黄金 还是需要进行合理性的修整的。日内下方继续先关注5日线4200-4195一带争夺，如果有跌破，则短期内 下方或可能去10日线4150附近找支撑。日内上方则继续关注日线级别区间上沿压力4260-65附近，但在 此之前，昨日收盘位4235附近亦有可能一定的阻力。小时图上来看，昨日原本预期行情有承压回修，行 情走势也是符合预期的，但是今日早间行情一波快速下跌刺破此前趋势线4210支撑带，低点跌至4200附 近，这给今日行情留下一定的续跌隐患，如果今日不能重返至4235-40上方，那么将会加重后期行情扩 大回修调整的风险，下方可继续先关注42 ...

Group 1: Spot Gold - On December 2, spot gold initially touched a low of $4205.39 per ounce but rebounded due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, reaching a high of $4264.61 per ounce, the highest level since October 21 [1][5] - On December 2, gold prices fell approximately 0.36%, trading around $4215 per ounce after hitting a six-week high of $4264.43, as investors took profits and awaited key economic data for clues on interest rate cuts [1][5] - Gold is expected to remain resilient due to recent geopolitical developments and the increasing expectation of a shift towards a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy [1][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market exhibited significant volatility, with a strong upward movement during the day, reaching a peak of $4264.6, followed by a pullback at night [2][6] - A confirmed breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern indicates a continuation of the bullish trend, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the overbought zone around 65, limiting short-term buying momentum [2][6] - Key resistance levels are noted at $4233-$4254, while support is identified at $4200-$4175, with a recommendation for a bearish bias on high and a bullish bias on low [2][6] Group 3: WTI Crude Oil - On December 2, WTI crude oil was trading around $59.5, supported by expectations of tightening supply due to damage to the Black Sea CPC pipeline and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [1][5] - Geopolitical risks and OPEC's decision to maintain production levels until the first quarter of 2026 may limit the downside potential for WTI prices in the short term [1][5] - Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have led to operational suspensions, while OPEC+ has agreed to pause efforts to regain market share amid concerns of oversupply [1][5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil - The daily chart indicates a steady rebound structure after breaking through short-term moving average resistance, with continuous bullish candles and MACD indicators showing a low-level golden cross [3][7] - Key support levels are at $58.50 and $57.80, with potential upward movement towards $60.50 and $61.30 if these levels hold [3][7] - A recommendation for a bullish bias on low and a bearish bias on high is suggested, with key resistance at $61.8-$61.2 and support at $58.7-$58.2 [3][7]

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.400≈国内金价。 我们来看一下黄金白银，简单的说一下基本面。最近，黄金白银上涨主要是两大因素，第一是美联储降息预期，美联储降息预期最近从前段时间的30%以下 提升到了80%以上。按市场的说法是，美联储12月份降息，基本上是板上钉钉了。另一个因素就是地缘局势，美国和委内瑞拉很紧张，亚太地区的日本，最 近一直在惹事儿。俄乌冲突那一块，谈判谈得不是太顺利，俄乌谈判还在进行。 对于操作上，不同的产品，不同的操作方式，我一直认为每个产品有每个产品的一个特点。所以说，对于杠杆产品每天要注意一点，我都会给关键位置；结 合我们提示的主要方向，比如是冲高做空为主，还是回落做多为主，参考关键位置去操作。 对于不带杠杆的产品，我最近反复强调，虽然说在下破3886趋势支撑以前我看可能会做反弹，但是我不建议去介入，因为这些产品不适合折腾。当前，确实 反弹了，我们错过来这波的上升，但是我觉得咱们做交易，你不要只看着行情，怎么我没有抓住，或者怎么咱们没有介入，你一定要注意它背后的一个风 险，这一点是最重要的。 机会多的是，但是，你如果盲目的进场被套了，或者挂在了 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a low of $4,215 before rebounding to around $4,240 per ounce as of the A-share market close [1] - The market is heavily influenced by Trump's upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to favor low interest rates, which is beneficial for gold [1] - Current market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with an 88% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, which is crucial for further gold price increases [1] Group 2 - The upward momentum in gold prices since late November is primarily driven by increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a retreat in the US dollar index [2] - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in December, with the dollar index recently falling to around 99 [2] - Short-term gold price performance appears weaker compared to silver, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite, which may hinder gold price increases [2]