Steve Leeman has that story. Hey, Steve. >> Yeah, Mike.Some breaking or bad breaking inflation data from the government. Not about the levels, but about the release of data. We just learned from the BLS that the October and November PPI or wholesale inflation reports will now be delayed until January 14th and released with the December data when it comes out.This is longer than many expected the BLS to take to catch up. No, November PPI was originally scheduled for December 11th. New dates for the October a ...

纽约联邦储备银行周一发布的报告显示，11 月美国家庭对自身当前及未来财务状况的悲观情绪有所加 重，不过其对未来通胀走势的预期保持稳定。 这家地区性联储银行在 11 月《消费者预期调查》中指出，受访者对当前财务状况的看法 "显著恶化"， 而对一年后财务状况的展望则 "略有恶化"。 不过，11 月受访者对就业市场的看法出现好转。报告称，受访者对一年后失业率上升的预期有所回 落，对未来一年内失业的预期降至 2024 年 12 月以来的最低水平，同时家庭对主动离职概率的预期也有 所下调。 该报告发布的次日，美国央行就将召开货币政策会议，预计这场会议将颇具争议。市场普遍预测，美联 储将在周三把政策利率下调 25 个基点，至 3.50%-3.75% 的区间，以此为显现出疲软迹象的就业市场提 供支撑。 鉴于通胀压力仍远高于美联储 2% 的目标，此次降息预期可能会在政策制定者中引发大量明确反对。许 多美联储官员仍认为，当前货币政策的核心重点应是抑制物价压力。 纽约联储的报告显示，11 月通胀方面的读数大体平稳。受访者对一年后通胀的预期与上月持平，维持 在 3.2%；对三年期和五年期通胀的预期也均稳定在 3%，未发生变化。 1 ...

作者 |第一财经 杜川 2026年的货币政策基调已经明确。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 货币政策延续了过去一段时间的提法，即"适度宽松"、"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。与7月召开的 政治局会议相比，表述出现微调：删去"保持流动性充裕"、"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并新增了加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度的表述。 实际上，不久前，央行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中就提到，下阶段，做好逆周期和 跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 近一段时间，货币政策不断发力，央行先后下调7天期逆回购、LPR（贷款市场报价利率）、SLF（常 备借贷便利）、MLF（中期借贷便利）利率，创设临时隔夜正逆回购，MLF的政策利率色彩淡化，7天 期逆回购操作利率将发挥基准政策利率功能，新的调控框架已基本成型。 从2025年的经验来看，货币政策给出了适度宽松的定调，今年5月央行推出 ...

2025.12. 08 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 2026年的货币政策基调已经明确。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳 中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策 集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 货币政策延续了过去一段时间的提法，即"适度宽松"、"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。与7月召开 的政治局会议相比，表述出现微调：删去"保持流动性充裕"、"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并新 增了加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度的表述。 实际上，不久前，央行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中就提到，下阶段，做好逆周 期和跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 近一段时间，货币政策不断发力，央行先后下调7天期逆回购、LPR（贷款市场报价利率）、SLF （常备借贷便利）、MLF（中期借贷便利）利率，创设临时隔夜正逆回购，MLF的政策利率色彩淡 化，7天期逆回购操作利率将发挥基准政策利率功能，新的调控框架已基本成型。 从2 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Function - The Federal Reserve System consists of three key entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for monetary policy formulation[2] - The FOMC has 12 voting members, including 7 governors from the Board, the New York Fed President, and 4 rotating regional Fed Presidents, meeting 8 times a year to vote on monetary policy changes[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - With Powell's retirement, Trump is expected to nominate two new governors in 2026, potentially increasing his influence to 4 out of 7 governors, exceeding 50% of the Board[3] - The selection of a new Fed Chair will require a balance of loyalty to Trump and market trust, complicating the nomination process[3] Group 3: Challenges for the New Fed Chair - The new Fed Chair will face challenges in balancing political pressure from Trump with the Fed's independence, especially in a high inflation and weakening labor market context[4] - The new Chair's influence in 2026 may be limited as they will need time to establish authority and navigate existing policies[4] Group 4: Impact on Asset Prices - The impact of the Fed Chair transition on asset prices will vary by scenario, with short-term effects on long-term Treasury yields likely minimal, depending more on economic conditions[5] - Long-term effects on the dollar and stock market will depend on the new Chair's control over the Fed and potential policy reforms[5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a low volatility increase with an average trading volume of 1,696.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 40.7 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.26% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%[2] - The PMI for November rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends but still significantly lower than expected[2] Fixed Income - The bond market saw an overall increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising significantly[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 663.8 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 848 billion CNY[2] - The market anticipates a cautious monetary policy outlook, limiting bullish sentiment in the bond market[2] Overseas Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.5% and the S&P 500 by 0.31%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.14%, while the 2-year yield rose by 12 basis points to 3.56%[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below the expected increase of 10,000[2] - The core PCE index for September fell to 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, indicating weaker inflation pressures[2] - Michigan University's one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.5% to 4.1%, boosting market risk appetite[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may not meet market expectations[2]

Group 1 - Macron calls for a shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy to focus on economic growth and employment alongside inflation control, breaking the norm of leaders avoiding comments on central bank policies [1][3] - The ECB's current core mission is to maintain medium-term inflation close to 2%, differing from the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve which includes maximizing employment [1] - Macron has previously suggested broadening the ECB's policy objectives to include economic growth and decarbonization goals [1] Group 2 - Macron highlights financial stability risks due to the U.S. relaxing regulations on crypto assets and stablecoins, urging Europe to maintain its status as a stable and credible investment zone [2] - He supports the issuance of European common debt to create more high-liquidity, safe assets, thereby enhancing the euro's status as an international reserve currency [2] - Macron criticizes the ECB's ongoing policy of selling government bonds, suggesting it could lead to higher long-term interest rates, suppress economic activity, and strengthen the euro [3]

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特周一表示，美联储若提前公布未来六个月的利率路径将是"不负责任 的"，他强调货币政策应严格依据经济数据灵活调整。"美联储主席的职责是紧盯数据、适时调整，并解 释为何采取特定行动，"哈塞特说，"如果说'我未来六个月要这么做'，那确实是不负责任的。"作为现任 主席鲍威尔继任的热门人选，哈塞特被问及预计2026年还需降息多少次。他回避具体预测："我不想让 大家失望于对降息次数的猜测，但我可以说，关键是要看数据。"哈塞特称赞鲍威尔在本次会议前有效 协调了FOMC内部意见："我认为他在'管好一屋子猫'方面做得很好，成功凝聚了降息共识。我相信鲍威 尔也认同我的观点——我们可能应该继续降低利率。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

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固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...