Group 1 - The global situation is increasingly complex, with major powers pulling in different directions, leaving smaller countries like India and Turkey in difficult positions [1] - India faces economic challenges due to increased tariffs from the US on key exports, particularly textiles and pharmaceuticals, which are critical to its economy [3] - The relationship between India and Pakistan remains tense, with border conflicts exacerbating India's economic woes and leading to a rising unemployment rate of 14% [3] - Turkey's geopolitical position is precarious, as it attempts to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict while facing internal challenges such as high inflation and the aftermath of a recent earthquake [5] - Japan's defense budget has reached a record 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD) in response to perceived threats from China, indicating a shift towards militarization [7] - Germany's economy is severely impacted by the loss of cheap Russian gas, with GDP growth projected at only 0.2% in 2025, leading to industrial decline and rising unemployment [9] Group 2 - The underlying risks for these countries stem from their inability to find a stable position amid great power competition, with India and Turkey struggling to maintain neutrality [11] - Japan's increased military spending and strategic reforms are seen as direct responses to threats from China, raising concerns about potential military conflict [7][11] - Germany's energy crisis and manufacturing exodus highlight its vulnerability in the current geopolitical landscape, affecting not only its economy but also the stability of the EU [9][11]

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1706.0 | -4.11% | 1681.7 | 27173 | | 20008 | -1803 | | | EC2604 | | 1163.3 | -1.58% | 2224.4 | 16470 | | 27774 | 1435 | | | EC2606 | | 1415.0 | -0.56% | 1972.7 | 929 | | 2476 | -3 | | | EC2608 | | 1527.4 | -0.37% | 1860.3 | 225 | | 1200 | 8 | | | EC2610 | | 1105.2 | -0.61% | 2282.5 | 1277 | | 6619 | -131 | | | 月産 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.77 美元至 57.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.16%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 2.03 美元至 61.99 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.39%。SC2602 以 424.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.58%。美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗杀死抗议 | | | | 者，将对其进行"沉重"打击。在当前市场预期原油供应将过剩 | | | | 的背景下，伊朗石油供应中断将构成意料之外的障碍。1 月 8 日， | | | 原油 | 伊朗国家媒体报道，总统马苏德·佩泽什基安警告国内供应商不 | 震荡 | | | 要囤积或过高定价商品，德黑兰正在全国范围抗议经济困难期间 | | | | 推行高风险的补贴改革。根据局势的发展，伊朗的石油出口，相 | | | | 当于全球供应的 2%，可能面临风险。伊拉克政府此前发表声明说， | | | ...

此外，美国参议院周四推进一项决议，旨在禁止特朗普总统在未经国会授权的情况下对委内瑞拉采取进 一步军事行动。此外，汇丰银行在周四的报告中预测，受地缘政治风险和债务问题推动，黄金价格可能 在2026年上半年升至每盎司5000美元。 世界黄金协会发布报告称，12月贵金属(包括白银和铂金)的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡，可能在短期 内引发市场波动。然而，除了短期波动影响外，黄金预计仍将延续自身的运行逻辑。美国最高法院即将 对关税政策作出的裁决，可能会对美国贸易政策产生重要影响。这对黄金的影响或更为复杂，但可能构 成潜在支撑。 周五(1月9日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格小幅走弱，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4463.09美元/盎司，下跌 0.32%，最高触及4483.18美元/盎司，最低下探4452.31美元/盎司。大宗商品指数年度调整带来的技术性 压力，以及美元在亚洲交易时段的走强，共同对金价构成短期压制。投资者在等待晚间美国非农就业数 据公布前调整仓位。 投资者目光已转向即将于1月9日(周五)公布的美国12月非农就业报告。这份数据被视为判断美联储货币 政策走向的关键指标。调查显示，经济学家预计12月新增就业岗位仅6万个，远低于 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue their weak performance with high volatility due to factors such as geopolitical risk subsiding, index adjustment concerns, and risk - control measures from the exchange. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains intact, and investors can wait for opportunities to buy on dips after the current risks are released [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 8, 2026, London gold spot was at $4434.31/oz, down 0.2% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $76.44/oz, down 3.2%. COMEX gold was at $4442.80/oz, down 0.3%, and COMEX silver was at $76.12/oz, down 3.4%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g, down 0.73%, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 18450 yuan/kg, down 5.91% [3][4]. - The price differences and their changes were also presented, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price difference, which decreased by 6.1% from January 7 to January 8 [4]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 7, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1067.13 tons, with no change from the previous day. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% compared to January 6 [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 8, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, unchanged from the previous day, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.22% to 637647 kg [4]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On January 8, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.02, up 0.01% from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14% [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis - After the geopolitical risk in Latin America subsided, concerns about the adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and risk - control measures from the exchange led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. In the short term, prices may remain weak and volatile. In the long term, the upward logic of precious metals remains valid [5][6].

（本文作者梁永慧为招金精炼副总经理） 一、近期重点事件解析 美联储票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，当前政策立场已接近中性，美联储需依据更多经济 数据判断通胀问题与劳动力市场状况的优先关注顺序，再根据实际情况灵活调整政策方向。美联储理事 米兰则认为，2026年需累计降息超过100个基点。 市场对美联储货币宽松的预期，仍对贵金属价格形成支撑。 3.全球黄金投资规模持续扩大 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）资金流入量创下年度历史新高，其中 北美市场表现领跑。2025年，黄金ETF资产管理总规模实现翻倍以上增长，持仓量同步大幅攀升，两项 指标均刷新历史纪录。黄金市场日均交易额达3610亿美元，同样创下历史新高。 此外，1月7日中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国黄金储备为7415万盎司（约合 2306.323吨），较上月增加3万盎司（约合0.93吨），实现连续第14个月增持黄金。 1.地缘风险频发支撑金价反弹 2026新年伊始，地缘冲突引发国际社会广泛关注。1月3日，美军突然对委内瑞拉发起军事打击，轰炸其 境内军用机场、国防部、港口等目标，并抓捕委内瑞拉总统 ...

据悉，在周二的会议上，英法签署文件确认未来在乌部署军队的意向。马克龙称可能派遣数千法军，斯 塔默则表示此举为英法等国部队在乌行动(含空海防御、协助重建乌军)奠定法律基础。 俄方警告：西方在乌部署军队、设施等行为将被定性为外国干涉，严重威胁俄欧安全，"所有相关部队 及设施均属俄武装力量合法打击目标"。声明强调，"意愿联盟"与乌当局的军国主义言论已构成"战争轴 心"，其计划不仅危及欧洲大陆未来，更迫使欧洲民众为西方野心买单。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.47元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.83美元，跌幅 0.48%，日内高位盘整。当日开盘价1004.88元/克，最高价1006.56元/克，最低价999.62元/克。 今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.47元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.83美元，跌幅 0.48%，日内高位盘整。当日开盘价1004.88元/克，最高价1006.56元/克，最低价999.62元/克。 【要闻速递】 俄罗斯周四强烈回应英法向乌派兵计划，明确任何西方军队入乌都将成为"合法军事打击目标"。俄外交 部声明称，英法官宣的"军 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is closely linked to the country's oil resources and is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela has approximately 3,500 tons of potential gold reserves, with a production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the middle tier globally [1] - The U.S. military intervention signifies a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [2] - Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining U.S. dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold indicate that the bullish trend for gold and silver remains unchanged [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]