国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.17%报120.890，10年期主力合约涨0.09%报109.045，5年 期主力合约涨0.10%报106.265，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.542。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，中短券表现较好，长券偏弱。截至发稿，30年期国债"25超长特别 国债02"收益率上行0.2BP报1.8505%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.45BP报1.7215%，2年期国 债"25附息国债06"收益率下行1.5BP报1.3550%。3年期国债"25附息国债10"、1年期国债"25附息国债08" 收益率均下行1BP左右。 交易所债券市场也表现偏暖，"24西基01"涨超8%，"22武生01"、"24长交G1"涨超3%，"22宏利债"、"24 河钢Y3"、"24深铁10"涨超1%。"12国债18"、"21鄂科01"、"21万科02"、"23青信07"跌超1%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间6月26日，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌6.74BPs报3.711%，3年期 美债收益率跌6.72BPs报3.681%，5年期美债收益率跌5.13BPs报3. ...

// 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日变化不大。 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 5093 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 5093 亿元，中标量 5093 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2035 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 3058 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行加力，资金面整体变化不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，仍位于 1.37% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.3% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 6. 国债期货收盘 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约涨 0.1% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02% 5 年期主力合约持平 // 全 ...

横盘震荡，是多空双方都在蓄势，双方力量整体达到了一定的均衡，只是方向并不确定。所以，要想打 破这种均衡一定需要更大的力量。往往市场需要一点催化剂才能突破，就像打战攻城前的战时动员令一 样。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250626— 金融"围城"（+央行加大净投放+股市冲高回落+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 250011 1.6525/1.6540/1.6440/1.6445 -0.90 今日债市阳光普照，债农们瓜田丰收忙：某卖方分析师转行做教培啦，某女团小姐姐转行卖存单啦。金 融"围城"诚不我欺：里面的想跑路，外面的想跳坑。 | 我还是太低估男人的好色了 | | --- | | 据说一个下午,整个本币的男交易员都疯狂了 | | 疯狂回她买存单 | | 她的小红书整个市场都看过了,现在都设置为不可见了 | | 【意上一下空电机 | | 尊敬的各位领导同事,我已办完离职手续,谨以 | | 此向大家告别，感谢迅雷总、戴所、曾彪总等领 | | 导的信任和指导。 | | 我目前转行做教培以及夏令营了63 (高中科创一 | | 条龙辅导, 实验设计、数据获取、科研报告写作 | | 辅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing active trading and liquidity, with a focus on navigating a narrow range of fluctuations in the bond market due to external uncertainties and internal policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.01%, with a latest price of 112.26 yuan [1]. - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 7.40 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume has been 25.85 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 7.298 billion yuan [2]. - In the last 22 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 445 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 2.0329 million yuan [2]. - The latest margin buying amount is 106 million yuan, with a financing balance of 41.2498 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of June 25, 2025, the ETF has achieved a 13.91% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 406 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.74% [2]. - The highest monthly return since inception is 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 10.58% [2]. - The average monthly return during up months is 2.20%, with a monthly profit percentage of 64.29% and a monthly profit probability of 69.58% [2]. - The probability of making a profit over a one-year holding period is 100% [2]. Group 4: Drawdown and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.70% [3]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of June 25, 2025, the tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.050% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced plans to relax a key capital regulation, the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), which has been criticized by large banks for limiting their ability to hold more U.S. Treasury securities and act as intermediaries in the $29 trillion market [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The proposed changes will lower the capital requirements for bank holding companies from 5% to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, and for their bank subsidiaries from 6% to the same range [1] - The proposal aims to enhance the resilience of the U.S. Treasury market and reduce the likelihood of market dysfunction, as well as the need for Federal Reserve intervention during future stress events [1][2] Group 2: Industry Reactions - The proposal is seen as a partial victory for banks, which have called for the exclusion of U.S. Treasury securities from eSLR calculations [1] - Critics, including former Treasury officials, question whether relaxing the eSLR will actually encourage banks to purchase more Treasury securities [2] Group 3: Broader Implications - The changes come amid concerns about the resilience of the U.S. Treasury market, especially in light of potential future stress events [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supports revising the SLR standards to strengthen banks' roles as intermediaries in the Treasury market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, stated that the liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is sufficient [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is currently experiencing adequate liquidity, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is functioning well with appropriate liquidity [1] Group 1 - The liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is deemed adequate [1]

金十数据6月25日讯，据Natixis投资管理公司调查显示，约70%的策略师认为股票和债券市场的波动性 将继续升高。在接受调查的策略师中，超过十分之七（71%）的人认为股市波动性将继续升高，68%的 人认为债市的波动性也将继续升高。不过，71%的Natixis投资管理公司策略师表示，他们正在积极寻找 股市波动中的机会，74%的债券策略师也是如此。 机构调查：股市和债市波动性将继续升高 ...

Group 1 - The primary risk identified in the survey is the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, with 85% of strategists categorizing it as a moderate to high concern [1] - Two-thirds (62%) of European strategists believe that investing in U.S. Treasuries is no longer as safe as it used to be, while only a quarter (24%) of U.S. strategists share this view [1] - The survey includes insights from 34 market strategists, portfolio managers, research analysts, and economists from Natixis Group and its affiliates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]