Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has undergone a downward adjustment as of December 2, 2025, with a liquidity turnover of 1.01% and a transaction volume of 326 million yuan [1] - As of December 1, the average daily transaction volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past year was 8.269 billion yuan, with the latest fund size reaching 32.141 billion yuan [1] - In the past 21 trading days, there were 14 days of net fund inflow totaling 949 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 1, with a fixed rate and a total of 107.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan for the day [1] - Industry insiders noted that the latest PMI data has limited impact on the bond market, which is currently focused on year-end policy directions and the central bank's upcoming bond purchase scale [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that low interest rates will become a long-term economic norm, and despite economic pressures, the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is beneficial for boosting investor sentiment [1][2]

机构认为，当前债市震荡偏弱格局没有明显改变，可以关注央行买债规模和权益表现情况，观察是否有利率下行机会。目前利率模型依然偏谨慎。 资金流入方面，国债ETF5至10年最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近21个交易日内，合计"吸金"4932.55万元。（数据来源：Wind） 回撤方面，截至2025年12月1日，国债ETF5至10年近半年最大回撤1.09%，相对基准回撤0.48%。 费率方面，国债ETF5至10年管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年12月1日，国债ETF5至10年近1月跟踪误差为0.019%。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。 基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过往业 绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享 基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资所带来的损失。投资人 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for December 2025 indicates a weakening influence of the equity market on the bond market, with overall weak performance and reduced trading volume expected in the equity market. Seasonal factors typically lead to increased fiscal spending and loose monetary policy in December, which may result in a downward trend in interest rates [1][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy**: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a high probability of interest rates declining in December due to seasonal patterns. However, the impact of upcoming important meetings on the market needs to be monitored [1][4]. - **Credit Spread**: The 1-5 year non-financial credit spread has returned to the 30th percentile of the past 24 years, indicating a thin safety cushion. The compression of non-financial medium to long-term credit spreads may face challenges due to year-end regulatory changes [5][3]. - **Fiscal Policy for 2026**: The fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of spending intensity, with a deficit rate expected between 4% and 4.5%. The net financing scale of government debt may reach approximately 14.5 trillion yuan [12][10]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately in 2026, but inflation remains an uncertain factor. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, while CPI may return to positive growth [7][16]. - **Interest Rate Projections**: The after-tax yield on 10-year government bonds is anticipated to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a median estimate between 1.75% and 1.95% [2][19]. - **Investment Strategy**: In a low-interest-rate environment, a focus on coupon strategies is recommended, along with opportunities for phase-based trading. The overall economic recovery is expected to be moderate, supporting a low-interest-rate environment [21][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Structure Transition**: The current macroeconomic policy framework emphasizes structural transformation, with a focus on medium to long-term planning and industrial policy, aiming for sustainable growth while stabilizing short-term economic conditions [9][14]. - **Fourth Quarter Economic Support**: There is a significant amount of new funding (1 trillion yuan) allocated for the fourth quarter, which includes policy financial tools and local government debt limits, aimed at boosting economic growth [8][11]. - **Inflation Risks**: Inflation is identified as a key uncertainty for the bond market in 2026, with potential short-term volatility due to rising prices, although the overall macro policy aims to prevent financial system stagnation [16][20]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, fiscal and monetary policies, investment strategies, and potential risks in the bond market.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overall, production is weak during the off - season, credit momentum shows a weak recovery, external demand improves marginally, and there is still uncertainty in the year - end fundamentals, but the bond market can still be viewed optimistically [2]. - In the production sector, the November production PMI and its month - on - month change are lower than the seasonal average, and the year - on - year production is expected to decline slightly [2]. - In the demand sector, in terms of investment, the average prices of cement and asphalt decreased in November, infrastructure remained weak, real estate investment was weak with continued year - on - year decline in sales, and manufacturing investment showed weak recovery with marginal improvement in new orders but a month - on - month decline in the enterprise business condition index; in terms of consumption, the pre - placement of the Double Eleven event reduced its impact, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales is expected to continue to decline slightly; in terms of foreign trade, the high - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November, and both exports and imports are expected to increase slightly year - on - year [2]. - Bill rates first rose and then fell, and credit momentum continued the weak recovery trend. Even considering the possible matching of enterprise medium - and long - term loans due to the implementation of policy - based financial instruments, enterprise and household credit may still increase less compared to the same period last year [2]. - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased slightly while fresh vegetable prices increased significantly. The year - on - year CPI is expected to rise significantly, and the ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials remained divergent, with the year - on - year decline of PPI expected to widen slightly [2]. - Overall, it is expected that in November, the year - on - year industrial added value will be 4.7%, the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment will be - 2.5%, the year - on - year social retail sales will be 2.6%, the year - on - year exports will be 3.9%, the year - on - year imports will be 3.3%, the year - on - year CPI will be 0.9%, and the year - on - year PPI will be - 2.3%. It is also expected that the new credit in November will be 450 billion yuan, the new social financing will be 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year M2 will be 8.3% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real - Economy Data - It is expected that the year - on - year industrial added value in November will be 4.7%, and the year - on - year in December will be 4.9%. From 2021 - 2024, the month - on - month industrial added value in November had a high correlation with PMI but a low correlation with high - frequency data. The production PMI and its month - on - month change were lower than the seasonal average, and the high - frequency data of the asphalt plant operating rate was weak [7]. - It is expected that the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment in November will be - 2.5%, and in December it will be about - 3%. Infrastructure investment remained weak in November, with the construction PMI rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6% but still at a low level in the past 10 years, and the average prices of cement and asphalt decreasing; real estate investment continued to weaken, with the decline in new home sales expanding and second - hand home sales declining year - on - year; manufacturing investment remained stable, with the new order PMI rising 0.4 percentage points to 49.2% but still in the contraction range and the enterprise business condition index decreasing 0.43 percentage points to 51.56% [8]. - It is expected that the year - on - year social retail sales in November will be 2.6%, and in December it will be 2.9%. The service PMI decreased 0.7 percentage points to 49.5% in November. In terms of high - frequency data, automobile consumption weakened, with the retail sales of passenger cars from November 1 - 23 decreasing 11% year - on - year and 2% compared to the previous month, while non - commodity consumption showed strong resident travel intensity [9]. - It is expected that the year - on - year CPI in November will be 0.9%, and in December it will be 1.1%. Pork prices decreased slightly while vegetable prices increased significantly in November, and considering the low base last year, the CPI is expected to rise. Looking forward, pork prices will remain low in the short term, and vegetable prices may decline seasonally. It is expected that the year - on - year PPI in November will be - 2.3%, and in December it will be - 2.2%. The ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials increased in November, and the average price of crude oil decreased while the average prices of rebar and LME copper increased slightly, and the average price of coking coal decreased slightly [9][10]. 2. November Import and Export Data Forecast 2.1 Expected November Export Year - on - Year Growth of 3.9% - High - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November. The SCFI index continued to rise, the BDI index fluctuated upwards, and the container load of the top 20 ports recovered. However, considering the end of the year - end export rush, the decline in European manufacturing prosperity, and the US government shutdown, it may be difficult for the export growth rate to return to the level before October. It is expected that the year - on - year export growth in November will be 3.9%, and in December it will be 1.3% [18]. 2.2 Expected November Import Year - on - Year Growth of 3.3% - The new order sub - index of the November PMI increased, and the import freight rate recovered. The new order sub - index of the manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, and the import sub - index of the PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating marginal but weak recovery of domestic demand. The CDFI index fluctuated upwards in November. It is expected that the year - on - year import growth in November will be 3.3%, and in December it will be 0.1% [30]. 3. Monetary Credit: Increase in the Proportion of Direct Financing 3.1 Expected November New Credit of 450 Billion Yuan - It is expected that in November 2025, the new credit will be 0.45 trillion yuan, in December it will be about 0.95 trillion yuan, and in January 2026 it will be 5.35 trillion yuan. Enterprise credit is expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly in November but was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprise short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; the issuance of special refinancing bonds increased, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments may support enterprise medium - and long - term loans, so enterprise medium - and long - term loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year. Resident credit is also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The Double Eleven event supported consumption, so resident short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; due to the high - base effect and weak real estate sales, resident medium - and long - term loans are also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Table - based bill financing and non - bank loans are expected to decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, while overseas loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][39]. 3.2 Expected November New Social Financing of 2.02 Trillion Yuan and M2 Year - on - Year Growth of 8.3% - It is expected that in November 2025, the new social financing will be about 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth of the social financing balance will decline to 8.4%. In December 2025 and January 2026, the new social financing is expected to be about 1.46 trillion yuan and 7.20 trillion yuan respectively, and the year - on - year growth of the balance will be about 8.0%. Direct financing is expected to be about 145.4 billion yuan, including about 120 billion yuan of government bond financing, about 20 billion yuan of enterprise bond financing, and about 5.4 billion yuan of stock financing. Non - standard financing is expected to be about 17.5 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan of entrusted loans and trust loans and about 15 billion yuan of off - balance - sheet bills. Other sub - items are expected to total 7 billion yuan. Considering the growth rate of social financing and government bond expenditures, the year - on - year M2 growth in November is expected to be about 8.3%, and in December 2025 and January 2026, M2 is expected to be 7.9% and 8.1% respectively [40][44].

财通证券认为，12 月财政支出增加而政府债发行减少对资金表现偏支持，但银行负债端扰动因素颇 多。其中，更加乐观的因素有：（1）由买断式逆回购和MLF组成的中长期流动性到期环比下降2000亿 元；（2）政府债发行进入尾声，政府债净融资大幅回落，12月政府债净融资或下降到5000亿元， 环比 11 月下降约7660亿元；（3）财政支出增加而政府债发行减少大月，对资金面有支持；（4）汇率压力 有所缓释，中央经济工作会议召开，叠加近期信用风险有所抬升，央行延续对于资金的呵护。其中扰动 更强的因素有：（1）12月缴税规模相较于11月或抬升2000亿元附近；（2）存单到期量环比抬升约8670 亿元，对银行负债端的扰动增强；（3）仍有高息定期存款到期，对负债端仍旧有影响；（4）季末月信 贷压力更大，信贷投放也对资金有影响。 华泰证券在研报中指出，跨月扰动已过，资金预计季节性净回笼，12月为税收小月、财政支出大月，叠 加政府债供给规模不高，预计资金面维持均衡偏松。 Wind数据显示，12月有3000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）到期，同时将有4000亿元6个月期限和10000亿 元3个月期限的买断式逆回购到期。 在财政支出增加、 ...

Group 1: Key Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to continue exerting pressure on the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 28% since April 8, 2025, reaching a high of 4034 points on November 14, 2025 [2][3] - New tax regulations and redemption fee rules are anticipated to negatively impact the bond market, as the reintroduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds increases costs for investors [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may open up monetary easing space in China, but the benefits for the bond market are expected to be limited due to a preference for equities among foreign investors [9][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The real estate market's downturn and historically low bank deposit rates are driving residents to shift their savings into the stock market, with a total reduction of 2.34 trillion yuan in household deposits from July to October 2025 [3][6] - The new regulations on redemption fees for funds are likely to increase short-term costs for bond investors, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies towards direct bond purchases rather than bond funds [7][8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading to guide the yield curve, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, although this is significantly lower than previous months [11][13] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The economic fundamentals in China are expected to remain weak, with October data showing lower-than-expected export, production, and investment figures, leading to a potential need for further interest rate cuts [10][13] - The PBOC's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, aim to stabilize the bond market and mitigate rising yield pressures, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will struggle to fall below 1.6% [11][13] - Overall, the bond market is likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation in yields due to the interplay of supportive monetary policy and ongoing pressures from the equity market [13]

Group 1 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 499.6 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.99 billion yuan, while the benchmark market-making ETF decreased by 0.46 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech bond ETF increased by 0.19 billion yuan [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.4 years, with an overall transaction amount of 166.3 billion yuan and an average single transaction amount of 5.87 million yuan [1] - The median yield is 1.93%, and the median discount rate is -12.0 basis points, with the benchmark market-making at -23.8 basis points and the Sci-Tech bond at -7.8 basis points [1] Group 2 - In January, the bond market entered a narrow fluctuation pattern due to a lack of strong policy and fundamental drivers, with no year-end rush market as expected [2] - The market focus at the beginning of the month was on the actual bond purchase scale by the central bank in October, leading to a return to a fluctuating market [2] - By the end of the month, the volatility of the bond market curve increased significantly due to multiple disturbances, including rumors of public fund redemption fee adjustments and large redemptions of bond ETFs [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 25.716 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year, with the latest share reaching 241 million, also a new high in six months [5] - The company bond ETF saw a net inflow of 21.3077 million yuan, with three out of the last five trading days showing net inflows totaling 112 million yuan [5] - The maximum drawdown of the company bond ETF in the past six months is 0.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.04% [5] Group 4 - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [6] - The tracking error of the company bond ETF over the past month is 0.012%, closely tracking the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [7]

Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The main issue in the bond market currently is the lack of incremental funds, but factors such as central bank's support for funds and weak growth momentum are beneficial to the bond market. The market should operate based on technical indicators, and currently, indicators like RSI are in the oversold range [2][15]. - The market may underestimate the long - term impact of real estate events. Despite high expectations for "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026, the bond market should adopt an "oversold buying, over - bought selling" strategy [19]. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation This Week - The bond market declined significantly this week. The participation of public funds and securities firms decreased, and funds have been net sellers of interest - rate bonds for 7 consecutive trading days, forming a strong resonance with securities firms on Wednesday and Thursday [2]. - News about the new fund redemption rules and emotional concerns about fund redemptions affected the market, causing significant declines on Wednesday [2]. Market Phenomena Observed - Futures led the decline in cash bonds, but the allocation power of cash bonds remained, with the entry of insurance funds increasing recently [6]. - Banks' buying power of cash bonds was weaker than in October, indicating that the overall scale of the central bank's bond - buying might be average [6]. - Funds were relatively stable. On Friday, the overnight DR001 for cross - month dropped to around 1.3%. The central bank's attitude towards funds was dovish, so cash bonds outperformed futures [6]. - Banks' behavior of increasing allocation, redeeming bond funds, selling OCI, and buying short - term bonds has been present since October, and the stage of large - scale redemptions this year may have passed [6]. Credit Bond ETF Situation - There were concerns about the redemption of credit - bond ETFs, but the overall scale of credit - bond ETFs did not decline significantly. However, there was structural differentiation among products [8]. - Among interest - rate products, ultra - long - term bond products had obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in a week [11]. - For credit - type ETFs, there was a net outflow of 535 million yuan in a week. Short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and an outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, while science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [11]. Impact of Real Estate Bond Credit Events - A new important real - estate bond credit event had little impact on the market. The trading impact was only about 10BP, and it was unlikely to cause a chain negative reaction [15]. - The event did not lead to interest - rate trading for monetary policy easing expectations. The market believed that the credit of real - estate enterprises was "market - based", and there might be no corresponding aggregate policy support [17]. - In the short term, it was reasonable for the market to have such a reaction, as real estate/house prices have been decoupling from various assets this year [17]. - However, the market may have underestimated the long - term impact of real - estate events. There is still significant pressure to stabilize growth in Q1 2026, but the market has a surprisingly consistent view on "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A - share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension dragged down the bond market sentiment. On Friday, rumors that the six major banks stopped selling five - year large - value certificates of deposit and cut the interest rates of three - year deposit products led to an increase in domestic interest - rate cut expectations, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to end [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected the bond market sentiment. The rumor of banks' deposit - product adjustments on Friday led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Trading was active, with stable activity. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth slowing and deflation risks. The bond market is likely to have low - level fluctuations, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread is extremely low. Similar to the 30 - year situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the CDB bond variety spread is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 173.5 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds dominated. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 55.8 billion yuan, including 27 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 28.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 913.6 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the overall turnover decreased slightly, but there were different trends among varieties [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The bond market first declined and then rebounded last week, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Yields of different - term bonds changed, and yields of representative individual bonds also changed [37][41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 12BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread was 18BP [49]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].