宏观经济周报 2025 年第 44 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数较上周显著回升，重回扩张区间，显示经济景气 度整体回暖，基本面韧性进一步增强。分项来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收 缩区间，显示节后需求惯性在高基数影响下有所放缓。投资景气指数显著抬 升，节后投资活动继续推进。制造业结构升级、设备更新与科技创新项目带动 投资活跃度上升。出口景气指数延续平稳，虽全球需求偏弱，但外贸结构优 化、多元市场拓展仍支撑出口稳定。生产景气指数大幅回升、强势扩张，显示 假期后供给端修复明显，工业生产快速恢复常态。总体来看，本周综合景气指 数在假期扰动消退后恢复性回升，经济动能从消费主导转向生产与投资共振， 预计后续政策推动下，景气水平有望维持温和扩张态势。 2025 年前三季度中国 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，比去年同期加快 0.4 个百分点，主 要宏观指标平稳。就业保持稳定、物价温和上涨、国际收支平衡，展现出强大 的抗压性与稳定性。具体来看，一方面新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展动能 充沛。创新链与产业链深度融合，新兴产业快速成长，高技术制造业增加值同 比增长 9.6%，人工智能、数字经济、绿色转型等新动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose, with the black - series leading the gains [1] - The CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.38%, a weekly increase of 28.55, a quarterly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.83% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 futures had a daily increase of 2.05%, a weekly increase of 10.18, and a year - to - date increase of 12.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The current volatility level in the overseas macro - environment is in a low - level accumulation stage. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal volatility energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible staged increase [7] - The US economic aggregate showed little growth, with a "K - shaped" structural characteristic. Government shutdown may widen the error and expected difference in inflation data. US regional banks are under pressure again [7] Domestic Macro - China's economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience, with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [7] - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [7] Group 3: Asset Views - There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline [7] - In the domestic market, with marginal changes in policy, physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets that were under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7] Group 4: View Highlights Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with concerns about the crowding of small - and micro - cap funds [8] - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market turnover declined slightly, with concerns about the insufficient liquidity in the options market [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment stage due to geopolitical and trade easing, and are expected to fluctuate, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8] Shipping - Container shipping on the European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward - driving force, with attention to the rate of freight - price decline in September [8] Black Building Materials - Steel is expected to fluctuate as its fundamentals have marginally improved, with attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8] Energy Chemical - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate due to increased geopolitical risks and challenges to Russian oil exports, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10] Agriculture - Grains and oilseeds are expected to fluctuate. For example, soybean meal had a short - term rebound due to short - covering, with attention to weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Despite large pressure on spot supply and a sharp drop in PG basis turning negative, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term under the influence of tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances because of concerns about future supply. There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Thursday, the price of civil LPG rebounded. In East China, it was 4267 (+8), in Shandong 4340 (+90), and in South China 4400 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4440 (+50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 89 (-21), and the November - December spread was 122 (-22). FEI and CP increased to 494.5 (+16.5) and 456 (+9) dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI monthly spread was - 10 dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was - 4 dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production in the coming week [4].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On October 22, equity indices fell while most CGB futures rose. More commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing strongly [2][10][13]. - The price of crude oil increased by 2.5% on October 22, but the rebound space is expected to be limited due to persistent downward pressure on fundamentals and uncertain macroeconomics and geopolitics [16][18]. - Gold and silver decreased by 3.9% on October 22. After the concentrated realization of bullish factors, the market may enter a phased correction period. However, in the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not yet reversed [23][27][28]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 22, equity indices fell (IC decreased by 0.8%), most CGB futures rose (TL increased by 0.1%), more commodities rose, and energy & chemicals performed strongly. Among commodities, the top three gainers were bitumen (up 2.9% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), rapeseed (up 2.5% with open interest up 6.5% month - on - month), and crude oil (up 2.5% with open interest up 5.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were gold (down 3.9% with open interest down 6.0% month - on - month), silver (down 3.9% with open interest down 9.0% month - on - month), and RBD palm olein (down 1.7% with open interest up 3.8% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil - On October 22, crude oil increased by 2.5% to 447.2 yuan/barrel. The downward pressure on fundamentals persists, and the outlook for macroeconomics and geopolitics remains uncertain. The room for rebound is expected to be limited. API data shows a slight draw in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories last week, but the sustainability of this trend is limited. The supply side is in a phase of production increase, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation [16][17][18]. 1.3 Daily Drop - Gold & Silver - On October 22, gold decreased by 3.9% to 952.56 yuan/gram, and silver decreased by 3.9% to 11404 yuan/kg. After nearly two months of upward trend since late August, the market may enter a phased correction period as some bullish factors are gradually digested. In the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the contraction of US dollar credit remains the core cornerstone [23][27][28]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with Chinese leader at the APEC summit, but the meeting might be canceled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that heads - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in Sino - US relations, and there is no information to share on the specific issue [3][38]. - The EU trade chief said that EU and Chinese officials have agreed to meet in Brussels for urgent talks on China's export controls on rare earth. The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that China - EU economic and trade relations are win - win, and hopes the EU will uphold free trade principles [38][39]. 2.2 Industry News - Shenzhen has released the "Shenzhen Action Plan for Promoting High - Quality Development of Mergers and Acquisitions (2025 - 2027)", aiming to have the total market value of domestic and overseas listed companies exceed RMB 20 trillion by the end of 2027, cultivate 20 enterprises with a market value of over RMB 100 billion, and build a complete industrial chain M&A ecosystem [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The current volatility level is in a low - lying stage of accumulation. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible phased increase. The domestic low - valued assets may have some support in the fourth quarter. There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week [8]. - Domestic macro: The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to promote the increase of physical work volume in the fourth quarter. The low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter may have certain support [8]. - Asset views: There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week. In the overseas market, the marginal support for risk assets may decline, and the volatility of precious metals and the equity market may increase. In the domestic market, there are marginal changes in the policy end, and the low - valued domestic commodity assets may have a rebound opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4563.4, down 0.31%; the SSE 50 futures at 3005.6, up 0.03%; the CSI 500 futures at 7011.6, down 0.58%; the CSI 1000 futures at 7163.2, down 0.27% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.358, down 0.01%; the 5 - year at 105.735, up 0.02%; the 10 - year at 108.145, unchanged; the 30 - year at 115.61, up 0.02% [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, while the precious metals sector corrected. For example, in the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.58, up 1.14%; ICE Brent at 61.66, up 1.18%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold closed at 4138.5, down 5.39%; COMEX silver at 48.16, down 16.41% [4]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market had a shrinking - volume rebound, and the bond market continued to be weak. Stock index futures may see a shock - up trend due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options may fluctuate as market turnover declined slightly; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Gold and silver prices may fluctuate due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline. The container shipping to Europe may be volatile as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward drivers [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel and ore prices have been under pressure. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as policy disturbances, production and supply, and cost [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Basic metals are waiting for the clarification of macro - policies and are in a state of shock. For example, copper prices may decline in the short term due to renewed trade frictions; aluminum prices may rise slightly as inventories are decreasing [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The trade tension has slightly eased, but the supply - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some products such as crude oil and LPG at risk of shock - down [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The sentiment has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Some products like cotton may see a shock - up due to rising purchase prices, while others like sugar may continue to be weak and volatile [11].

Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of China's economy, market, and asset prices, summarizing insights from various research teams within the company [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The focus is on the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and changes in geopolitical situations [3]. - Exports show resilience despite external demand fluctuations, supported by strong manufacturing competitiveness and diversified export destinations [3]. - Consumption and investment have weakened, with consumption declining due to weak income expectations and diminishing effects of trade-in programs, while investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate has also decreased [3]. - Inflation is expected to recover slightly from low levels due to policies aimed at reducing ineffective competition, although overall price levels remain low and uncertain [3]. - Policies are anticipated to moderately support growth in the fourth quarter, with high fiscal deposit growth allowing for increased investment [3]. Market Strategy - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing but slightly slowing, with domestic demand affected by reduced trade-in incentives and overall weak demand [21]. - A-shares are expected to show improved earnings growth in the second half of the year, although the real estate sector continues to face challenges [22]. - The valuation of A-shares remains reasonable compared to historical averages and offers attractive investment opportunities relative to global markets [22]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors less correlated with economic cycles, such as AI, and those with resilient external demand, like engineering machinery and innovative pharmaceuticals [22]. Investment Trends - The report highlights a decline in fixed asset investment growth, with significant drops in infrastructure and real estate investments [6][7]. - The export growth rate remains strong, particularly in non-U.S. markets, despite some challenges in U.S. trade relations [9][39]. - The report notes a slight recovery in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showing signs of stabilization [11][43]. Sector Performance - In the third quarter, sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals led the A-share market performance [26]. - The report indicates a significant disparity in sector earnings, with some sectors like real estate and transportation facing substantial declines [47][51]. Foreign Investment - The report discusses the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, with a notable increase in the proportion of institutional investors in the market [54][86]. - The valuation of foreign-held A-shares is analyzed, showing a trend of increasing premiums compared to domestic shares [76][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].