Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan suggests that the deregulation agenda of the Trump administration provides additional justification for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of Deregulation - Milan believes that the large-scale deregulation efforts underway in the U.S. will significantly enhance competition, productivity, and potential growth rates without increasing inflationary pressures, leading to faster economic growth [1] - He anticipates that by 2030, 30% of regulatory restrictions in the Federal Register will be eliminated, based on the pace of deregulation projected by the Trump administration through 2025 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The overall effect of the large-scale deregulation implemented by 2025 is expected to continue for at least three more years, which will have a substantial positive impact on productivity and exert downward pressure on prices [1] - This net effect supports a more accommodative monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1: Australian Housing Market - Australia's residential construction activity showed a significant rebound at the end of last year, with a monthly increase of over 15% in seasonally adjusted building permits for November 2025, reaching a nearly four-year high [3] - The rebound is driven by multiple segments, particularly strong performance in multi-unit residential approvals, which became the core driver of the overall data recovery, while approvals for standalone homes also showed mild improvement [3] - Major contributions came from populous and economically significant states like New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, indicating a broad-based recovery in demand, despite some disparities in resource-rich regions [3] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to signal a cautious stance regarding monetary policy, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stating that current interest rates are close to neutral, lacking urgent reasons for a policy shift [5] - He emphasized that the previous support for rate cuts was more about risk management rather than a fundamental change in policy direction, with the U.S. economy expected to grow near potential levels supported by fiscal stimulus and past policy effects [5] - The labor market is cooling but remains orderly, with unemployment rates and job creation showing signs of a soft landing, allowing policymakers to maintain patience [5] Group 3: Japanese Manufacturing Confidence - Japanese corporate sentiment has declined at the beginning of the year, with the manufacturing business sentiment index falling to a six-month low, reflecting ongoing pressure from weakened external demand on certain industries [7] - Sectors related to raw materials and heavy industry, such as steel and chemicals, reported reduced overseas orders and intensified price competition [7] - However, there are notable differences among industries, with automotive and electronic machinery sectors experiencing a relatively limited decline in confidence, indicating some structural resilience within Japanese manufacturing [7] Group 4: U.S. Inflation Trends - Recent U.S. inflation data provided a relatively mild signal, with the overall consumer price index showing a slight monthly increase in December, aligning with market expectations, while core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose less than predicted [9] - Housing-related costs remain the main driver of inflation, but their impact has stabilized, with the inflation rate maintaining a low range compared to recent years and core inflation further declining [9] - This combination suggests that the Federal Reserve will have greater flexibility in assessing policy paths, allowing for gradual adjustments based on actual economic performance [9]

多位美联储地区联储主席最近重申年内温和降息的可能性，同时强调央行独立性对维持物价稳定不可或 缺。费城联储主席保尔森（Anna Paulson）和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）分别阐述了 对经济前景和货币政策的看法，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）明确主张本月末的货 币政策会议应维持利率不变。 美东时间14日周三，保尔森在费城大区商会活动上重申，如果通胀降温且劳动力市场企稳，美联储可能 今年晚些时候进一步小幅降息。这与她本月初的表态基本一致。古尔斯比在接受媒体采访时为美联储的 独立性辩护，称"美联储的独立性对这个国家的长期通胀率至关重要"。卡什卡利强调，无论下任美联储 主席是谁，联储的政策必须基于数据而非政治指令，集体决策机制是抵御干预的防线。 保尔森和卡什卡利均拥有2026年美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议的投票权，古尔斯比拥有2025年的会 议投票权。他们的表态凸显了，面临特朗普政府的大幅降息压力，美联储的官员们仍坚持基于经济数据 而非政治偏好制定利率政策的立场。目前市场普遍预期，美联储1月27日至28日的FOMC会议将决定按 兵不动、暂停降息。 保尔森重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation on January 15, 2026, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding method for the 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation, with a term of 6 months (181 days) [1] - In January, 600 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature, and the new operation represents an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month, which is an increase of 100 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The reverse repo operations are aimed at injecting medium-term liquidity into the banking system, helping to stabilize the funding environment [1] - This move is expected to support government bond issuance and encourage financial institutions to increase monetary credit, signaling a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [1]

央行本月加量续作6个月期买断式逆回购，实现净投放3000亿元，继续向市场注入中期流动性。业内专 家认为，本次操作将为年初的政府债券发行、信贷"开门红"等营造适宜的流动性环境，呵护资金面平 稳。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对上海证券报记者表示，这是6个月期买断式逆回购连续第5个月加量续 作，加量规模较上个月增加了1000亿元，也是央行连续第8个月通过买断式逆回购向市场注入流动性。 ◎记者 张琼斯 中国人民银行1月14日公告称，1月15日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（181天）。 "总体来看，央行将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性，这也是2026年 货币政策延续'适度宽松'基调、保持流动性合理充裕的体现。"王青表示。 展望今年的货币政策，董希淼表示，2026年，我国货币政策将在促进经济增长、风险防范、结构调整等 多重目标中寻求动态平衡，为实现"四稳"即稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期提供有力支持。在数量型 货币政策工具方面，明明预计，今年将通过降准、国债买卖提供长期流动性，通过MLF和买断式逆回 购注入中期流动性。 1月还有20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Kashkari believes that President Trump's actions regarding the Federal Reserve are "related to monetary policy" and does not see "any motivation for a rate cut in January" [1] Group 1 - Kashkari's comments highlight the ongoing tension between the executive branch and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1] - The statement indicates a firm stance from the Federal Reserve against potential rate cuts in the near term, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of the Trump administration towards the Federal Reserve over the past year are fundamentally about monetary policy, as stated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who defended Fed Chair Powell amid a criminal investigation led by the Justice Department [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Kashkari emphasized the importance of explaining to voters why the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the health and vitality of the U.S. economy [1] - The Supreme Court has signaled a different view of the Federal Reserve compared to other independent agencies, potentially granting the Trump administration more power over the Fed [2] - If the Supreme Court sides with Trump, it could undermine the foundational independence of the Federal Reserve, allowing future presidents to dismiss Fed officials at will [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.75%, a level that Kashkari believes positions the Fed well [2] - There is significant division among decision-makers regarding recent interest rate decisions, with some officials opposing a rate cut due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [4] - Kashkari expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, citing a solid economic foundation despite some labor market cracks and ongoing high inflation [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Kashkari warned that inflation could remain above target levels for the next two to three years, potentially leading to prolonged high inflation [5] - A significant rise in unemployment, particularly if accompanied by easing inflation, could prompt a change in Kashkari's strategy [5] - The current economic resilience suggests that tight monetary policy may not be as impactful as perceived, as there have not been widespread layoffs despite reduced hiring [4]

据外媒援引一位重要的共和党议员称，由于美国司法部已向美联储送达传票，威胁要对美联储主席鲍威 尔提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔可能会缺席原定的下一次国会听证会。根据1978年对设立美联储的相关法律所 作的修订，美联储主席被要求每年两次在国会听证会上作证，就货币政策和经济形势发表看法。按照惯 例，美联储主席通常会分别出席参议院银行委员会和众议院金融服务委员会的听证会。众议院金融服务 委员会主席、共和党众议员弗伦奇·希尔表示，"我预计鲍威尔主席不会在二月份出席众议院和参议院的 听证会，因为大陪审团指控他作伪证。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance for the new year [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operation - The PBOC will carry out a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 15, with a term of 6 months (181 days) [1] - This operation is an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations by the PBOC [1] - In January, 600 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature, making the upcoming operation a continuation of previous liquidity support measures [1] Group 2: Implications for Financial Institutions - The reverse repo operation is expected to support government bond issuance at the beginning of the year [1] - It will also assist financial institutions in increasing credit supply, reflecting the PBOC's commitment to a supportive monetary policy [1]

明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel T. Kashkari在接受采访时明确声援美联储主席鲍威尔，直指特朗普政府近期 针对美联储的行动本质上是"关于货币政策"的干预。 根据《联邦储备法》，总统只有在官员存在称职问题或失职等"正当理由"时才能将其解职。Kashkari 警 告称，如果最高法院做出有利于特朗普的裁决，使总统能够随意撤换官员，将破坏美联储独立性的基本 要素。他同时注意到，最高法院过去一年的表态似乎显示其倾向于将美联储与其他独立机构区分对待。 Kashkari 在接受采访时指出，特朗普政府过去一年针对美联储的攻击"实际上是关于货币政策的"。他认 为鲍威尔对此次刑事调查性质的定性是准确的，即政府正将行政手段作为迫使央行降低借贷成本的筹 码。 尽管行政压力加剧，但 Kashkari 认为这正是一个向公众阐明美联储独立性重要性的契机。他提到，目 前市场表现相对冷静，部分原因在于跨党派议员已表态支持鲍威尔，这传递了美联储应免受政治干扰制 定利率的信号。 1月维持利率不变，谨慎对待未来降息 在货币政策层面，Kashkari 明确反对在1月的议息会议上降息。去年经过三次降息后，目前基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%之间 ...