央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展10000亿元买断式逆回购 操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招求 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 在线申报 | | 下 ...

Radhika Rao指出，印度央行的决策将取决于政策制定者如何权衡两个关键因素：一方面，当前通胀持 续低于目标区间，使实际利率保持在较高水平；另一方面，第二季度经济录得强劲增长，可能强化维持 紧缩立场的理由。 星展银行经济学家Radhika Rao表示，印度央行在本周五即将召开的货币政策会议上面临信号相互矛盾 的局面，市场对其利率决定存在明显分歧。 星展银行的基线预期为"温和降息"，但这一情景的前提是：2026财年的通胀路径不仅较印度央行当前预 测低50至60个基点，且已实质性回落至2%–6%的目标区间之下。尽管具备一定降息基础，近期卢比汇 率的剧烈波动为政策决定增添了新的不确定性。（新华财经） ...

新华财经北京12月4日电（王菁）债市周四（12月4日）明显走弱，近期超长债调整拖拽市场整体情绪， 国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券收益率普遍上行2-3BPs；公开市场单日净回笼1756亿元，短端资金 利率多数上行。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率多数走高，10年期日债收益率上行2.5BPs至1.917%，3年期和5年期日债收益 率分别上行0.7BP和0.8BP。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间12月3日，10年期法债收益率涨0.1BP报3.490%，10年期德债收益率跌0.2BP 报2.745%，10年期意债收益率跌1.8BP报3.444%，10年期西债收益率跌0.4BP报3.217%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率跌2.2BPs报4.446%。 【一级市场】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%报112.45，创2024年11月22日以来新低；10年期主力 合约跌0.35%报107.67，5年期主力合约跌0.24%报105.595，2年期主力合约跌0.05%报102.368。 银行间主要利率债收益率午后宽幅震荡，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行3.5BPs报2.271%， 10年期国开债 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 79.3 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan due to 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The continuous reverse repo operations in early December aim to smooth short-term liquidity fluctuations and maintain a reasonable level of market funds, reflecting the PBOC's precise adjustments based on market demand [1][2] - The overall liquidity in December is expected to remain stable, with the PBOC likely using various tools to adjust market liquidity and avoid significant fluctuations [4][5] Group 2 - The PBOC is expected to counteract the maturing funds through measures such as Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, focusing on maintaining a balanced approach to liquidity [2][3] - In November, the PBOC net injected 100 billion yuan through MLF and 25.4 billion yuan through pledged supplementary lending (PSL), indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The PBOC's operations are characterized by a "lock short, lend long" strategy, which stabilizes expectations and ensures that liquidity remains ample, particularly in light of year-end government bond issuance and bank assessments [3][4]

风险资产市场同样遭遇重创。加密货币市场反应尤为剧烈，比特币价格单日跌破87000美元关口，较前一交易日下跌超过5%。这种市场波动并 非孤例，2018年美联储四次加息期间，道指全年跌幅达5.63%，显示出货币政策变动对各类资产价格的显著影响。 当时美联储加了四次息。 道指全年跌了5.63%。 现在鲍威尔要走，新主席会咋干？ 你的钱袋子，还能保住吗？ 要回答这些问题，得先看美联储的老底。 ??个人观点，仅供观看 2025年12月1日，"鲍威尔辞职"的传闻引发全球金融市场剧烈震荡。道指期货下跌0.36%，标普500指数下跌0.51%，纳斯达克指数更是重挫 0.65%。这一消息不仅影响着全球资本市场，更直接关系到普通人的资产安全与生活成本。对于背负房贷的家庭而言，美联储政策转向可能带 来的利率变动尤为关键——仅上个月利率上调0.3%就已导致部分家庭月供增加400元，若新主席延续加息路径，普通购房者将面临更大还款压 力。 说白了，就是美国央行的政策史。 2008年金融危机后，他们就没闲着。 | 从图上能看到啥？ | | --- | | 2008年开始，美联储一直在"印钞放水"。 | | 一轮又一轮，放了四次。 | | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Fixed Income and Macroeconomic Analysis - **Company**: CITIC Securities Research Department Core Insights Macroeconomic Outlook - **GDP Growth**: Expected to achieve around 4.9% for the year, with nominal GDP growth anticipated to rise, marking the first time since 2022 that nominal GDP growth outpaces real GDP growth [4][39] - **Economic Growth Pattern**: Projected to exhibit a "front low, back high" pattern in 2026 due to base effects and policy timing [4][39] - **Price Improvement**: Price factors are expected to improve, contributing to the rise in nominal GDP [4][39] Policy Combination - **Fiscal Policy**: Anticipated moderate expansion with a deficit rate maintained at 4%. New special bond issuance expected to increase to around 5 trillion [4][44] - **Monetary Policy**: Expected to remain moderately accommodative, with liquidity conditions remaining ample and stable funding rates [4][39][48] Interest Rates - **Interest Rate Trend**: Expected to decline initially before rising, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [4][71] - **Market Dynamics**: The macro policy's moderate expansion and rising nominal GDP are expected to ease the asset supply and demand dynamics [4][71] Risk Factors - **Economic Recovery Risks**: Domestic economic recovery may exceed expectations, alongside potential financial regulatory changes and credit risk exposures [4][74] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased risks from US-China trade tensions and global geopolitical instability [4][74] Additional Important Insights Investment Strategy - **Investment Approach**: A step-by-step strategy is recommended, focusing on capturing opportunities in the bond market as conditions evolve [4][68] Credit and Social Financing - **Credit Growth**: Anticipated stabilization in credit and social financing growth, with a gradual increase expected in 2026 [4][47] - **Government Debt Supply**: Expected slight growth in government debt supply compared to 2025, supporting social financing [4][47] Inflation Outlook - **Inflation Trends**: PPI is expected to show a steady upward trend, while CPI is projected to be positive for most months in 2026 [4][35][33] Export Dynamics - **Export Resilience**: China's exports are expected to show resilience due to diversified trade partnerships and demand from emerging markets [4][20] Consumer Spending - **Consumer Recovery**: Consumer spending is expected to continue its weak recovery, supported by policy measures [4][23] Infrastructure Investment - **Infrastructure Growth**: Infrastructure investment is projected to recover marginally in 2026, supported by fiscal policy and special bond issuance [4][26] Real Estate Market - **Real Estate Trends**: The real estate market is expected to continue its weak performance, with inventory levels remaining high [4][32] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic outlook, policy strategies, and potential risks facing the industry.

Group 1 - Vanke is perceived as a good company with a commendable founder, Wang Shi, but is currently struggling due to economic pressures and a lack of government support for its debt issues [2][3] - The company's debt has ballooned to nearly 900 billion, and the financial burden of resolving this debt could potentially collapse other high-quality state-owned enterprises [3] - The real estate crisis is likened to a festering sore that triggers various economic and social problems, indicating a systemic risk that could affect multiple stakeholders, including suppliers, workers, and homebuyers [3][4] Group 2 - Economists and financial experts are proposing various strategies to address the economic challenges, but fundamentally, there are only three main tools: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial policy [4][6] - The effectiveness of these traditional economic tools is diminishing, as minor adjustments in interest rates or taxes yield minimal results, leading to a situation where the Chinese economy is increasingly out of control [6] - The interconnectedness of modern economies means that issues in one area can have far-reaching impacts, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions to break through existing institutional barriers [6][8]

（原标题：央行，大动作！） "短期流动性操作方面，11月7天期逆回购净回笼5562亿元，主要源于前期跨月投放的逆回购到期，央行 顺势回笼资金，避免过量短期资金在市场淤积。"王青表示。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼认为，11月，央行通过多种货币政策工具的组合 运用，坚持适度宽松的基调，整体上保持流动性净投放，继续维持流动性充裕。预计12月央行将继续维 持流动性合理充裕，为全年收官工作营造适宜的货币金融环境。 【导读】央行公布11月流动性投放情况，专家预计年末流动性仍将充裕 中国基金报记者 张玲 12月2日，人民银行公布2025年11月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。数据显示，11月买断式逆回 购、中期借贷便利（MLF）分别净投放5000亿元、1000亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元。 多位业内人士认为，11月央行坚持适度宽松的基调，整体上保持流动性净投放，预计12月将继续通 过"组合拳"保障市场流动性充裕。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析称，11月央行综合运用MLF和买断式逆回购，向市场注入中期流动 性6000亿元，旨在助力政府债券顺利发行，支持银行加大信贷投放力度。 数据显示，11月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity in the market as it continues to inject funds through various tools, with expectations for continued support in December [2][5][6]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - In November, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 500 billion yuan through reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a liquidity injection of 6 trillion yuan [2][5]. - The average monthly rate for the 7-day reverse repo was 1.47%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, while the 1-year AAA-rated interbank certificate of deposit yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.63% [5]. - The PBOC's operations included a net injection of 500 billion yuan through government bond transactions, which is an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous month, indicating a stable bond market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's liquidity measures are aimed at supporting government bond issuance and encouraging banks to increase credit lending [5][6]. - The bond market remains under pressure despite the liquidity easing, with expectations that the PBOC will continue to stabilize market sentiment through its operations [5][6]. - There is an anticipation of over 2.5 trillion yuan in public market operations maturing in December, leading to expectations of continued liquidity support through MLF and reverse repos [6][7]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists predict that the PBOC may implement further monetary policy adjustments, including potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and policy rates, possibly in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - The overall stance of maintaining ample liquidity is expected to persist, with adjustments made as necessary to address year-end liquidity pressures [7].

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）12月4日，人民银行行长潘功胜在《人民日报》撰文指出，中央银行 以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两 项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体 系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 潘功胜表示，准确把握科学稳健的内涵和要求。要把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好 跨周期和逆周期调节，保持货币条件与支持经济潜在增长和物价基本稳定的要求相匹配，提升金融支持 经济结构调整和高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 重点需要处理好三方面关系。一是短期与长期的关系。根据经济金融运行需要，综合运用各种货币政策 工具，加强逆周期调节，有力有效平滑经济波动。同时，关注跨周期平衡，避免政策大放大收，防止政 策过度导致效果衰减和长期副作用，更好支持重点领域和薄弱环节，在中长期促进经济转型和可持续增 长。 二是稳增长与防风险的关系。随着经济结构转型和信贷结构变化，实体经济需要的货币信贷增长也在发 生变化。对于支撑经济增长来说，提升存量资金使用效率、优化 ...