Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical juncture, with a potential slowdown in recovery expected by 2026, characterized by weakening momentum, increased risks, and intertwined challenges [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decrease in global economic growth rate to 3.1% in 2026, down by 0.1 percentage points from 2025, with developed economies growing at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.0% [2][4] Trade and Demand - Global trade faces significant challenges, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasting a sharp decline in global goods trade growth from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026, nearly stagnating [2][3] - The contraction in global demand, particularly from North America and Asia, is a major drag on international trade, compounded by the rise of trade protectionism [3] Fiscal Policy - Global fiscal policies are expected to continue expanding, with IMF projecting fiscal deficits for developed economies to rise to 4.9% of GDP and 5.9% for emerging markets in 2026 [4] - Governments face challenges in fiscal consolidation due to weak economic growth and political pressures, leading to a gradual adjustment strategy [4] Monetary Policy - Central banks are entering a phase of highly differentiated and uncertain monetary policy paths, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan taking cautious approaches, while the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key source of global uncertainty [5] Financial Risks - The overall risk in international financial markets is rising, with interconnectedness heightening the potential for rapid risk transmission [6] - The erosion of the credit foundation of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds poses deep-seated threats to global financial stability, exacerbated by rising debt levels and pressures on monetary policy independence [7] Inflation Outlook - Global inflation is projected to decline in 2025, but uncertainties will increase in 2026, with IMF forecasting CPI growth rates of 4.2% globally, 2.5% for developed economies, and 5.3% for emerging markets [7] - Major economies, particularly the US, face potential inflation rebound risks due to previous unilateral tariff policies and political pressures for short-term economic growth [7] China's Economic Role - In 2026, China is expected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth, maintaining its role as a stabilizing force in the global economy [8]

2026年已经启幕，中国经济站在了新的发展起点上。今年我国经济将呈现怎样的走势？财政政策、货币 政策又将如何为经济增长保驾护航？《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位首席经济学家，进行深入解读。 经济增长重在结构性调整 政策持续激活内需增长动力 近期召开的中央经济工作会议指出，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策""要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策"。 "财政政策方面，全国财政工作会议细化落实举措，超长期特别国债发行与国补落地见效。"温彬认为， 2025年12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，明确"2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政 策"。"更加积极"导向既体现在资金规模扩容，更凸显于资金使用效益提升。 政策落地层面，超长期特别国债已率先发力，首批625亿元资金于元旦前下达，精准覆盖岁末年初消费 旺季。国补政策同步落地，明确消费品以旧换新补贴标准，将汽车补贴调整为按价格比例发放、家电补 贴聚焦高能效产品，同时扩大数码智能产品补贴范围，通过统一全国补贴标准助力全国统一大市场建 设，政策从阶段性稳增长措施转向内需体系常态化安排。 "2026年适度宽松的货币政策将有两个主要方向。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示， ...

利多出尽，关注价格高位 回落风险 贵金属月报 2025/01/04 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 沪金指数前期在三角收敛末端向上突破，但当前短期上涨趋势已被破坏，在价格下跌的同时持仓量显著回落， 国际金价短期来看仍具备一定的回调空间，关注下方943元/克一线支撑。 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属价格呈现加速上涨后的冲高回落态势，国际银价表现尤为突出，12月1日至30日，COMEX白银主力合约价格上涨 25.5%至76.02美元/盎司，在盘中触及82.67美元/盎司的历史新高。同期沪银主力合约价格上涨25.71%至17074元/千克，并在盘中触及19998 元/千克的历史新高。对比之下，国际金价的涨幅则相对有限，统计期内COMEX黄金主力合约价格上涨2.2%至4352.3美元/盎 ...

04 流动性 基金销售费率新规落地 国债月报 2025/01/04 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：12月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，制造业重回扩张区间。分项上，需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产 活动较好扩张，内外需均有回升，但内需修复持续性有赖居民收入，需求端仍需政策支持。出口方面，11月出口数据强于预期，对美出口回 落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。中央经济工作会议强调继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，明年降准降息预期仍存。海外方面，12月美联储降 息落地且开始购买短债，流动性紧张现象有望缓解。 1、中国12月官方制造业PMI为50.1，预期49.2，前值49.2，9个月以来首次重返荣枯线上方；非制造业PMI为50.2，预期49.6，前值49. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Policy paradigm uncertainty is rising, and trading sentiment in the US Treasury market remains cautious. The focus has shifted to the Fed's path and fiscal outlook [2][13] - The US manufacturing sector is in a slow - growth period with both resilience and pressure, and the employment market shows certain resilience under macro - pressure [3][4] - Global major asset classes show different trends, with German bonds weakening slightly, Japanese bonds rising, Asian equity markets performing strongly, Bitcoin and industrial metals strengthening, and global major foreign exchanges generally under pressure [9][22][24][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Yield Review This Week - Yield changes from December 26, 2025, to January 2, 2026: 1 - month (+2bp, 3.72%), 1 - year (-2bp, 3.47%), 2 - year (+1bp, 3.47%), 5 - year (+6bp, 3.74%), 10 - year (+5bp, 4.19%), 30 - year (+5bp, 4.86%). The long - end yields rose slightly overall [2][13] - The Fed's December FOMC meeting minutes made the market's expectation of a rate cut in the April 2026 meeting decline. The prospect of Trump nominating a new Fed chair also disturbs the market's outlook on the future monetary policy path, creating a more cautious trading atmosphere [2][13] 2. US Macroeconomic Indicator Review 2.1 Business Index - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 51.8, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 52.2. The manufacturing expansion speed dropped to the lowest in nearly five months, and the growth momentum of the industrial sector slowed down moderately [3][20] - New orders decreased for the first time in a year, and exports declined for seven consecutive months due to tariff frictions. Input cost inflation slowed to an 11 - month low, but prices remained at a historical high, disturbing business confidence [3][20] 2.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 27, 2026, decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, lower than the forecast of 219,000 and the previous value of 215,000, enhancing the market's confidence in the economic "soft landing" [4][21] - However, considering the Christmas holiday, the data may be distorted by seasonal factors. Still, it alleviates public concerns about the labor market and provides a reference for the 2026 monetary policy [4][21] 3. Major Asset Review 3.1 Bonds - German bonds weakened slightly. Yield changes: 2 - year (-2bp, 2.12%), 5 - year (-1bp, 2.45%), 7 - year (-1bp, 2.65%), 10 - year (0bp, 2.87%), 15 - year (-1bp, 3.25%), 30 - year (+1bp, 3.50%). Weak economic data and policy uncertainty may lead the market to bet on a more dovish ECB stance [22] - Japanese bonds continued to rise. Yield changes: 1 - year (+2.1bp, 0.93%), 2 - year (+1.2bp, 1.17%), 3 - year (+2.6bp, 1.34%), 5 - year (+2.3bp, 1.55%), 7 - year (+3.5bp, 1.87%), 10 - year (+3.2bp, 2.07%), 15 - year (+1.6bp, 3.05%), 20 - year (+1.8bp, 2.98%). Expectations of the BoJ's policy normalization, inflation pressure, and rising fiscal risk premiums pushed up yields [23] 3.2 Equities - Global equity markets showed significant differentiation. Asian markets performed strongly. The top three gainers were the South Korean Composite Index (+4.36%), the Vietnam VN30 (+3.29%), and the Hang Seng Index (+2.01%). The US Nasdaq fell 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.81% [24] 3.3 Commodities - Bitcoin and industrial metals strengthened. The top three gainers were Bitcoin (+3.00%), London Silver (+2.82%), and LME Copper (+2.60%). Precious metals and agricultural products were under pressure. The top three losers were London Gold (-2.85%), CBOT Corn (-2.78%), and CBOT Soybeans (-2.49%) [25] 3.4 Foreign Exchange - Global major foreign exchanges (against the RMB) were generally under pressure. The top three losers were the Russian Ruble (-1.22%), the Swiss Franc (-0.94%), and the Euro (-0.66%) [26] 4. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the weekly changes in government bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major global stock indices, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major global foreign exchanges (against the RMB), and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [27][31][33][37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

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Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trend back to the "6" range in 2026, which could significantly impact the economy, policies, and market logic, marking a shift from 2025 when the exchange rate expectations began to change [1][44]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Assessment - Evaluating whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and can yield different conclusions based on various dimensions [3][46]. - The financial market and asset price dimensions suggest that the current appreciation of the RMB may be reasonable, as the US dollar index has dropped over 10% since its peak in January 2025 [3][46]. - The narrowing of the 2-year China-US interest rate differential by approximately 110 basis points since the beginning of the year indicates a decrease in the attractiveness of the RMB as a financing currency [4][47]. Group 2: Trade Dimension - The trade perspective supports the argument for RMB undervaluation, especially given China's strong export performance in recent years [7][51]. - The RMB exchange rate index remains at a relatively low level compared to recent years, despite its appreciation against the US dollar [7][51]. - There is a positive correlation between RMB depreciation and the expansion of bilateral surplus shares, indicating that trade dynamics are closely linked to exchange rate movements [7][51]. Group 3: Inflation Impact - The significant gap between the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate since 2022 reflects lower domestic inflation compared to global levels [11][54]. - The real exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a country's export price competitiveness, with lower real exchange rates generally favoring exports [15][58]. - Maintaining a stable real effective exchange rate while allowing for slight nominal depreciation could help avoid unnecessary trade frictions and manage surpluses effectively [15][58]. Group 4: Central Bank's Role in Exchange Rate Management - Historical patterns suggest that the RMB may experience significant appreciation during periods of US dollar depreciation, with the central bank likely to intervene to maintain stability [17][25]. - The central bank's approach to managing the exchange rate involves a balance of maintaining stability while allowing for necessary adjustments based on market conditions [17][27]. - The central bank has been gradually increasing its efforts to manage the RMB's appreciation, particularly in response to rapid increases in the exchange rate [25][27]. Group 5: Market Impact of Exchange Rate Changes - The market has adapted to the constraints imposed by RMB depreciation on monetary policy and liquidity, with expectations of a shift in sentiment during periods of appreciation [31][33]. - Generally, a normal appreciation of the RMB is associated with economic growth, positively impacting the stock market while potentially putting pressure on the bond market [35][36]. - In contrast, during periods of excessive appreciation, the stock market may underperform due to negative economic impacts, while the bond market could benefit [36][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, the yield curve became steeper, and the TL contract broke below the support platform. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of long - and medium - term capital entry into the market, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the view of an overall oscillating and bearish trend is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating downward pattern, with the yield curve becoming steeper and the TL contract breaking below the support platform. In the medium term, due to factors like the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, inflation expectation change, long - and medium - term capital inflow orientation, and unfalsifiable 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is oscillating and bearish [1][3]. - The market showed a differentiated feature of short - end stability and increased long - end volatility this week. Short - end interest rates were supported by loose liquidity, while the long - end was pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end is emerging [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3.3. Seat Analysis - On December 29th, the market opening was expected to trigger a quantitative selling signal, leading to an increase in trading volume. Private funds reduced their positions intraday, intensifying the position reduction of allocation - type institutions. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long end is gradually emerging, and various institutions have a slight willingness to test positions intraday [10].

Group 1: Core Insights - The US dollar index is expected to decline further in 2026, following a significant drop of 9.41% in 2025, the largest annual decline since 2017, influenced by a weakening US economy, tariff policies, and ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - Analysts predict that the dollar will weaken against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound, with an estimated additional decline of about 3% by the end of 2026 [5][6] - The divergence in monetary policy among major central banks is expected to continue, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a loose monetary stance while other central banks may raise rates or keep them stable, further pressuring the dollar [4][8] Group 2: Currency Performance - The euro is projected to strengthen significantly, with an increase of over 13.4% against the dollar in 2025, reaching levels above 1.17 USD per euro, supported by improved economic conditions in the Eurozone [1][8] - The Australian dollar is expected to perform well in 2026, benefiting from stable economic growth and potential interest rate hikes, following a 7.84% appreciation in 2025 [9][11] - In contrast, the Japanese yen and British pound are anticipated to face weaker performance in 2026, with the yen potentially falling below the 160 mark against the dollar due to persistent low interest rates and economic uncertainties [10][13]