1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

一个是全世界最有权势的总统，一个是全球最具影响力的"央行行长"。为何特朗普与鲍威尔总是互掐？ 美联储为何敢不听总统的话？ 说起来，鲍威尔的美联储的主席是特朗普任命提名，咱们一起来分析分析。 美联储自诞生起就不是为总统服务。作为联邦制国家，美国人对太多的权力集中在少数人手里这件事， 骨子里很警惕。 美国制定国家根本大法《宪法》，也是来自各州的55名代表唇枪舌剑辩论127天才讨论出来的。所从自 1776年建国至今，一大半的时间都没有中央银行的概念，中央银行不存在。 没有中央银行，谁来印钱呢？ 当时只要锚定黄金之类的硬通货，私人银行就可以发行货币。但这也带来了问题，美国人同样信不过小 银行，有一点风吹草动就把钱拿出来，一挤兑就很容易引发银行的危机。 美国人搞了无数次银行危机，折腾了很多次，大家筋疲力尽才考虑成立一个中央银行。中央银行的重要 任务是最后救济的一个大银行，当银行面临破产时，央行可提供救济。 这又把各个州的政府银行都聚在一起开会，讨论了三四年，直至1913年，美国已建国130多年才成立美 联储，全称叫"美国联邦储备系统"。 美联储性质复杂，更像是公私合营的组织，既有代表国家的联邦储备局，也有代表地方的联邦 ...

格隆汇8月4日｜华尔街"大空头"、摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克尔•威尔逊建议投资者对美国股 市保持乐观态度，逢回调就买进，他对未来12个月的前景仍持乐观态度。这位策略师认为，由上周五疲 软的就业报告和美联储暂停降息引发的近期疲软，是第三季度温和盘整的开始，而不是逆转。4月的"解 放日"标志着一个重大而持久的低点。尽管对通胀的担忧可能会推迟降息，但他预计，随着经济增长放 缓，美联储最终将转向降息。他表示，与关税相关的通胀看起来是暂时的，甚至可能关税在某些领域起 到抑制通胀的作用。随着企业盈利改善、现金流增长，以及人工智能和美元疲软的推动，威尔逊对自己 的看涨观点越来越有信心。他表示，"我们是回调的买家。" ...

新华财经北京8月4日电丹斯克银行分析师在一份报告中表示，英国央行可能在周四降息，但英镑对此的 反应应该会比较平淡。因为市场普遍预期英国央行将降息，且英国央行可能维持逐步放松政策的指引。 丹斯克银行预计，英镑还将走弱，因为英国央行在2026年降息的幅度或将超过市场预期。不确定性上 升、英国经济增长放缓的迹象以及英镑与美元环境的正相关性也可能令英镑承压。该银行预计，欧元兑 英镑将在6至12个月内升至0.89。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Danske Bank analysts suggest that if the Bank of England lowers interest rates as expected, the British pound may react mildly due to market anticipation and the potential for a gradual easing policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of England is likely to lower interest rates on Thursday, with the market widely expecting this move [1] - Danske Bank anticipates that the Bank of England may maintain a gradual easing policy guidance [1] Currency Outlook - The British pound is expected to weaken further, as the Bank of England's rate cuts in 2026 may exceed market expectations [1] - The euro is projected to rise against the pound, with an expected exchange rate of 0.89 within the next 6 to 12 months [1] Economic Conditions - Rising uncertainty and signs of slowing economic growth in the UK are likely to put additional pressure on the pound [1] - The positive correlation between the pound and the US dollar may also contribute to the pound's challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the consumer price inflation rate in June reaching nearly double the central bank's 2% target, the market widely expects the Bank of England to lower the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4% on Thursday, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1] Global Context and Outlook - Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, UK inflation surged, peaking at 11.1%, largely due to its heavy reliance on natural gas for heating and power generation. Inflation significantly decreased in 2023, projected to bottom out at 1.7% in September 2024, but is expected to rebound stronger than in the US and Eurozone. The June inflation rate rose to 3.6%, the highest since January 2024, with some economists predicting it will soon exceed 4% [2] Inflation Expectations - Most Bank of England officials view inflation expectations from businesses and households as crucial indicators for future price trends, wage demands, and the central bank's credibility. These expectations have been rising over the past year, with the Citigroup/YouGov long-term expectations index nearing its highest level since late 2022, while the central bank's own survey reached a new high since 2019. However, some officials believe these surveys reflect reactions to recent inflation rather than predictions of future behavior [5] Domestic Inflation Stickiness - Despite a significant drop in overall inflation in 2023, two key indicators of long-term domestic price pressures remain elevated: service price inflation, heavily influenced by labor costs, and core CPI, which excludes volatile factors, both consistently above overall inflation. Additionally, food and beverage prices, which greatly affect public inflation perception, especially among low-income groups, are accelerating [8] Wage Growth Trends - The annualized regular wage growth in the private sector has decreased from over 8% two years ago to just below 5%, yet it remains approximately 2 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels and well above the 3% benchmark deemed compatible with the 2% inflation target. The central bank and surveyed employers expect wage growth to further slow to 3% over the next 18 months, but the decline has not been steady, and rising unemployment and reduced job vacancies may not ensure a rapid cooling of wages as anticipated [11] PMI Cost Pressure Indicators - The S&P Global July Purchasing Managers' Index indicates that UK businesses are "strongly" raising prices. Although the rate of price increases has decreased compared to 2022, the current increase remains above pre-pandemic levels. Over the past year, costs in both the service and manufacturing sectors have risen significantly, which, if passed on to consumers, could elevate prices [14]

Group 1 - The event on July 24, where President Trump publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, highlights a significant power struggle between the presidency and the central bank, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][5] - Trump's physical gesture towards Powell, interpreted as a directive rather than a collaborative discussion, has sparked discussions about the implications for the Federal Reserve's autonomy [3][4][6] - The historical context of the Federal Reserve's independence, established to prevent political interference in monetary policy, is crucial for understanding the seriousness of this incident [5][6][20] Group 2 - Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates is driven by political motives, particularly as the 2024 election approaches, where economic performance is a key factor for his campaign [9][11][12] - The stock market's performance is a significant concern for Trump, as he views it as a reflection of his economic achievements, and lowering interest rates typically boosts market valuations [10][11] - The immediate market reaction included a drop in the dollar index and a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields, indicating investor concerns about potential political interference in monetary policy [14][16] Group 3 - The potential consequences of undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to long-term economic instability, as evidenced by historical examples where political interference resulted in economic crises [20][21][22] - The current political climate shows a divide in Congress, with some members supporting Trump's stance while others emphasize the need to protect the Federal Reserve's independence [16][25] - The future of this power struggle will depend on the Federal Reserve's response, market reactions, and potential legislative measures aimed at safeguarding the central bank's autonomy [25][26][30]

Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable around $3,360 per ounce after a significant increase of 2.2% in the previous trading session, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and trade tariff measures [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 new jobs were added in July, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, leading to market declines [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen over 25%, with expectations of further increases due to ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains stable, while silver, palladium, and platinum prices have seen declines [2]

8月1日，美国非农就业数据大由利多，远低市场预期，失业率达到4.2%，消息一出黄金原地起飞大夜 60多美金，转眼金价重回3360美元上方。 不仅非农数据给力，美联储利率决议中近30年以来首次出现"反水"，两名官员鲍曼和沃乐支持降息，从 鲍威尔"嘴硬派"阵营倒戈，关于降息的预 上周，黄金跌的人心惶惶，尤其金价刺穿3300美元跌至3268美元，从4月份到现在以3300美元为中轴 线，来回反复的行情搞得多空也没脾气。 桂林山水甲天下，久闻其名，今天抽个时间一睹为快。 ...

张尧浠：非农崩盘降息升温、金价到明年前景仍有新高 第一部分：行情简要总结和观点，以及一周走势因果复盘： 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收阳，如期自2024年以来，第四次回踩布林带中轨线(20周均线)，并继续止跌表现，根据历史规律来讲，以及两个相反 的垂线止跌形态来看，后续几周有望持续震荡调整，并在进入9月临近降息会议前再度攀升走强，刷新历史高点。但也有望直接攀升走强，重点关注这波 止跌反弹能否向上打破震荡格局。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开近17美金至3321.78美元/盎司，当日即反弹收复缺口，但多头动力不足，虽收取止跌形态，但第二日验证效果不够，也并未 突破众多均线阻力压制，故此走势仍偏弱，并在周三进一步坠落，录得当周低点3267.97美元； 最后则受到支撑买盘而止跌表现，周四又收取止跌形态，加大了百日均线的看涨支撑力度，就此，周五多头开始爆发，强势反弹拉升，一举收复当周跌 幅，并转阳，同时录得当周高点3362.55美元，最终持稳动力收于3362.46美元； 周振幅94.58美元，相对于前周收盘价3338.50美元，收涨23.96美元，涨幅0.72%。 影响上，周初受到贸易谈判和风险情绪回升，金价低开走弱， ...