Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is under pressure due to the expectation of loose supply, and weak demand dominates the oil price trend. In the short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, geopolitical risk premiums should be focused on. Currently, the market logic is still dominated by weak demand, but if OPEC+ signals production cuts before the December meeting, the oil price may rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.46% to 446 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent fell 1.5% and 1.5% respectively to $58.76/barrel and $63.08/barrel. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.6/barrel to $0.92/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened from $4.97/barrel to $5.24/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened slightly to $4.32/barrel [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As of November 18, the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil increased by 13,497 lots to 178,364 lots, while the net short position of WTI increased by 33,023 lots to 42,487 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: The number of U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 419 this week. The U.S. Interior Department plans to expand drilling in the West Coast and Arctic regions. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire, and Rosneft cut dividends, which increased non - OPEC supply disruptions. India's Reliance Industries stopped processing Russian oil, but Kuwait's export of heavy crude oil to India showed the flexibility of Middle East supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2 (expected 50.2), and the weak service industry dragged the composite PMI to remain at 52.5. The U.S. refinery capacity assessment bill was passed, which may support long - term demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: In the week of November 14, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.603 million barrels, previous value increased by 6.413 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.698 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.346 million barrels); EIA gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.945 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventories increased by 0.171 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.637 million barrels) [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On November 21, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The SC - Brent spread increased by 27.16% to $1.03/barrel, the SC - WTI spread decreased by 5.73% to $4.94/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 11.74% to $3.91/barrel. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.80%, and the U.S. refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.67% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: On November 21, 2025, FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil futures prices all declined. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.40% to 576 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 5.53% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: The U.S. oil rig count increased to 419 in the week ending November 21. India's Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait. China's Western Crude Oil Pipeline has transported over 200 million tons of oil. The Trump administration plans to open new areas in the West Coast and Arctic for drilling. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire [7][8]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 18, diesel speculators increased their net long positions. The U.S. House of Representatives passed two energy bills. India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil [9]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day, and the futures warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil also remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market experienced a correction from approximately $110,000+ to $84,000 for BTC and $4,100 to $2,700 for ETH in about 24 days [1] - This bull market's driving force is fundamentally different, characterized by asset allocation from Digital Asset Traders (DAT) and TradFi participation through instruments like ETFs [1] - The pricing power of crypto assets has largely shifted outside the crypto space [1] - The $10/11 event primarily impacted altcoins within the crypto space, with a weaker effect on BTC and ETH [1] Investment Signals - IBIT's first significant sell-off occurred around October 20 [1] - DAT's first sell-off of ETH occurred around October 28 [1] - The market may have underestimated the significance of sell signals from IBIT and DAT, which are key drivers of the recent price increase [1] Fundamental Analysis - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding capital flow and supply-demand dynamics for making informed decisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

截至2025年11月21日当周，沥青期货主力合约收于3009元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持26713 手。 宝城期货：综合来看，沥青供应端因利润下降而被动收缩；需求端受制于资金与天气因素，呈现"北弱 南强"的区域分化，整体复苏动能不足。沥青社会库存去化缓解了市场压力，但炼厂库存的边际累增也 预示着销售压力的加大。在供需双弱的大背景下，后市沥青期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 一德期货：百川炼厂库存增加、社库减少，短期供需驱动中性。中期来看，11月供应同比基本持平，预 计炼厂库存开始累积，社会库存减少，盘面计价冬储预期价格，近期稀释沥青贴水下跌，关注原油价格 方向。 截至11月21日当周，70家样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比下降3.1万吨，山东社会库存25.9万吨，环比 下降3.9万吨。 机构观点汇总： 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，沥青期货周内开盘报3048元/吨，最高触及3084元/吨，最低下探 至2976元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.63%。 消息面回顾： 本周国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共36.2万吨，环比减少18.7%；国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能 利用率为12.6%，环比节前减 ...

震荡磨底之中 短期低点已现 原油周报 2025/11/22 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 05 原油需求 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本支撑减弱 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至11月21日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3270（+14），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅上调。316.01（+2.35），（同比+4.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求增加。本期表需324.42（+10.83），（同比+8.82）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增、社库降。总库存402.11（-8.41），（同比+86.88）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]