二季度债市或仍需保持谨慎，30年国债指数ETF(511130)近5个交易日合计"吸 金"超5.5亿元 超额收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF成立以来超越基准年化收益为0.14%。 截至2025年3月26日 11:06，30年国债指数ETF(511130)多空胶着，最新报价108.39元，盘中成交额已达10.28亿元，换手率16.63%。 规模方面，30年国债指数ETF最新规模达61.89亿元，创近1年新高。 资金流入方面，30年国债指数ETF近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"5.51亿元，日均净流入达1.10亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债指数ETF本月以来融资净买额达648.01万元，最新融资余额达1.80亿元。 绝对收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月 数比为8/3，上涨月份平均收益率为1.90%，月盈利百分比为72.73%，月盈利概率为72.89%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。 回撤方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - In February, M2 growth remained stable, M1 growth declined, social financing growth rebounded, and credit growth decreased. The demand for financing remains robust despite low new home sales, with replacement bonds and corporate loans substituting for each other [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the government bond net financing is strong, indicating that the demand for real economy financing is not weak. In January and February, a total of 854.2 billion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, contributing significantly to the increase in government bonds [3][16]. - The social financing pulse is showing signs of bottoming out and recovering, with M1 and corporate profits expected to trend upward. The report highlights the importance of monitoring M1, corporate profits, and price levels as key variables for economic recovery [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Events - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for February 2025 on March 14, 2025 [8]. 2. Loans: Replacement Bonds and Corporate Loans Substituting Each Other - In January and February, the new RMB loans amounted to 6.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan. The structure of loans shows a decrease in short-term loans for residents and a steady demand for medium to long-term loans [10][11]. 3. Social Financing: Strong Government Bond Net Financing, Real Economy Financing Demand Not Weak - The new social financing in January and February reached 9.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. The report indicates that the strong net financing of government bonds is a major contributor to this increase [16][17]. 4. Deposits: M1 Growth Short-term Focus on Debt Reduction, Medium-term Focus on Prices - In January and February, new RMB deposits increased by 8.74 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in resident deposits. The report suggests that M1 growth will depend on debt reduction measures and the activity level of the real economy [22][23]. 5. Bond Market: Loose Credit May Drive Interest Rates Up, Favorable for Bond Allocation - The report discusses the government's intention to implement loose monetary policy as a means to achieve loose credit, which may lead to increased bond market supply and rising interest rates, benefiting bond allocation [27][29].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 积蓄力量，等待下行 [Table_Summary] 3 月 10-14 日，资金趋稳的利好信号开始反映在短端定价，但债市情 绪脆弱依然驱动长端利率上行，且利率波幅明显放大。14 日尾盘 2 月金融 数据发布，信贷结构反映需求正在弱化，但业内人士文章随之出炉，关于 降准降息的表述，都透露出当下落地的概率不大，债市对于"宽货币"的预 期阶段性退坡。 ► 降准降息，虽迟但大概率会到 如何看待短期降准降息落空，对债市的影响？我们倾向于，从希望到 失望，短期悲观情绪已经在 14 日尾盘释放。接下来是重新集聚力量的过 程，等待越来越多的高频数据揭示经济基本面的趋势。从当前信贷和经济 的高频数据来看，大行仍在票据市场收票，出口运价下跌，建筑复工偏 慢，工业品价格疲软，种种信号多指向基本面仍在筑底过程，需要呵护。 如果 3 月下旬信贷和经济高频数据依然偏弱，则降准降息预期可能卷 土重来。不过当下我们更应该关注，在央行态度偏呵护的背景下，3 月税 期及跨季，资金面是否保持平稳。降准的本质是补充银行的负债端，增强 资 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the convertible bond market, indicating that it has entered a bull market phase, driven by technical analysis rather than fundamental factors [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - The convertible bond market has shown a trend of upward movement, with indices rising over 20% since September 2024, reflecting positive investor sentiment and increased risk appetite [3][6]. - High-priced convertible bonds are currently outperforming, similar to characteristics observed in previous bull markets, indicating a shift in investor behavior from defensive to more aggressive strategies [3][4]. - The bond market is undergoing significant adjustments, with 10-year government bond yields approaching 1.80% and 30-year yields nearing 1.99%, primarily due to concerns over the central bank's monetary policy [3][7]. - Credit bond market yields are rising, particularly in lower-rated, longer-duration categories, suggesting a preference for high-rated, short-duration credit bonds to mitigate liquidity risks [3][8]. - In the city investment bond sector, there are opportunities in bonds with a rating of 2A2 yielding approximately 2.35%, and 1-2 year bonds rated AA yielding between 2.25%-2.3% [3][9]. - The industry is advised to focus on high-growth sectors such as advanced manufacturing, prioritizing high-rated, medium to short-duration leading companies [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - The current market sentiment indicates that investors are in a balanced state, with some being cautious and others willing to take risks, which is typical in the later stages of a market recovery [4]. - The convertible bond market is characterized by its emotional volatility, which is distinct from traditional linear asset classes, suggesting that increasing positions in this asset class is a strategic move in the current environment [5][6]. - The bond market's adjustment is expected to continue, with a cautious approach recommended until clearer signals of recovery emerge [7][8]. - The focus on city investment bonds and industrial bonds is driven by recent policy announcements aimed at improving cash flow and structural conditions in the market [9].