全球股市崩盘!大调整何时结束这轮调整的终点看两个关键时间点，下面把主要脉络直接说清楚，别拐 弯抹角，让人好奇后面的细节，因为里面有时间点和真相，会牵动你钱包和情绪。 这次突然的大跌，核心原因简单明了，是美联储可能不会在12月降息，这一消息像断了支柱，AI泡沫 赖的两条腿——企业业绩和降息预期——当中一条被拔掉，市场就像没了平衡杆的杂技演员翻了跟头。 近五年来，纳斯达克和美联储利率关系负相关，这次美国9月非农数据在11月20日公布，市场预期新增5 万人，实际却是11.9万人，就业强劲意味着美联储更可能维持利率，市场对降息的幻想被迅速打破。 | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Kimi 小红书 拼多多合短剧游戏 虚拟人 | 水产 FENASS | | | | | 中文语 | | 3.51% 0.65% 0.47% 0.42% 0.22% 0.02% 0.01% -0.33% | | | | | | | | WEB3.0 白色家电 多模态 生物育种央企银行抖音豆包 AIGC 谷子经济 -0.43% -0.5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in technology stocks, particularly in the U.S. markets, with the Nasdaq index surging nearly 2% [2][3] - Major semiconductor companies like AMD and Micron, along with tech giants such as Tesla and Alphabet, saw substantial stock price increases, contributing to the overall market rally [3] - The market sentiment is largely influenced by rising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a cut next month reaching nearly 80% [4][5] Group 2 - The article notes that the Boston Fed President Susan Collins does not see an urgent need for rate cuts, while New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there may be reasons for a cut in the near term [5] - Analysts express that the current economic data is subject to various interpretations due to delays in official data releases, complicating the economic outlook [7] - Chinese stocks also performed well, with the China concept stock index rising approximately 2.5%, and Xiaomi's ADR increasing over 4% following a significant share buyback by its founder Lei Jun [7][8]

中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 研究报告 Research Report 可选消费 W47 周度趋势解析： AI 泡沫论调和 12 月减息可能性降低影响全球资产表现 Week 47 Discretionary Trends: AI Bubble Concerns and Reduced Expectations for a December Rate Cut Weighed on Global Asset Performance 24 Nov 2025 Week 46 Discretionary Trends: Increased Focus on Sub-Sectors Driven by A/H High-Dividend Stocks and Mid-to-High-End Consumption Recovery (17 Nov 2025) 可选消费 W45 周度趋势解析：海内外消费子版块均无共振，内部因素催 化股价表现 Week 45 Discretionary Trends: Domestic and ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed market reactions following Nvidia's earnings report, highlighting ongoing concerns about the sustainability of AI investments and the broader implications for the tech sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's earnings report showed a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 65%, marking a return to acceleration for the first time in two years, with data center revenue increasing by 66% [4]. - The company's fourth-quarter guidance exceeded market expectations, projecting approximately $65 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $62 billion [4]. - Despite the strong earnings, the market remains concerned about the potential for an "AI bubble," leading to a sell-off in tech stocks rather than a rebound [4][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Institutional investors have been selling off tech stocks, with funds flowing into more defensive sectors, particularly healthcare, indicating a lack of confidence in the tech industry's future [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of cash flows in the face of aggressive capital expenditures by AI giants have emerged, with examples like Oracle and Meta increasing their leverage to maintain investment levels [5][6]. - The market is increasingly wary of the "burn rate" of capital in the tech sector, with significant doubts about whether the current investment strategies can yield sustainable returns [5][6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly, which poses a threat to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [9][10]. - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates, with a notable increase in job creation but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [9]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with potential implications for government debt issuance and the overall economic outlook, particularly if AI-driven productivity gains do not materialize as expected [10].

在近期的震荡行情中，关于AI是否存在泡沫的讨论升温，知名投资人段永平也加入其中。日前，他在 回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。" 近日，段永平在回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。我很开心那些大空头成 了我的客户，我会很乐意收他们的保费的。我确实说过我要在伯克希尔·哈撒韦里面躲一会儿牛市，现 在似乎可以出来了哈。" 根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2025年三季度末，段永平管理的H&H International Investment持有英伟达59.78万股，持仓市值为1.12亿美元。英伟达位列其第八大持仓。不过，和二季度 末相比，段永平减持英伟达36.7万股。 从近期段永平的发言中，能看出其对英伟达的最新态度。10月以来，段永平曾在雪球多次提及英伟达， 以及自己对AI板块的看法。 从国内市场看，机构依然对科技板块高度关注，大多认为尽管市场出现短期波动，但无碍AI行业的长 期向好趋势。 段永平再谈英伟达 华夏基金表示，TMT行业公募持仓处于高位并伴随丰厚涨幅，叠加年末机构排名临近，或有部分资金 抢跑、提前锁定利润，导致成长风格资金抽离较多。但是，更多 ...

来源 | 新智元 提起AI泡沫，人们会很自然联想到2000年前后的那场互联网技术泡沫。 从经济规模来看，AI泡沫可能会比互联网泡沫惨烈17倍！ 这一数字，源自目前AI的投资规模为2000年代初互联网泡沫破裂前，互联网公司投资规模的17倍。 以英伟达为例，其4.6万亿美元的市值仅次于美国、中国和德国的GDP，已经超过了日本、印度、英国等国家。 与如此惊人的估值相对应的是，到目前为止AI并没有让人看到多少真正能够落地的价值。 根据管理咨询公司麦肯锡的一份报告，近80%使用AI的公司发现，它对利润并没有产生显著影响。 经过多年炒作和投资飙升之后，人工智能技术的热潮开始显露出吃紧的迹象。 许多金融分析师现在都认同存在一个AI泡沫，有些人还推测，这个泡沫可能会在接下来的几个月里最终破裂。 对这项技术实用性和财务可行性的质疑，正在让分析师和投资者认为，一场崩盘正在逼近。 就连OpenAI CEO奥特曼以及谷歌DeepMind CEO哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis）也认为，当前的AI有些泡沫化。 他们认为那些仅靠「几个人和一个想法」「几乎什么都没有」的项目，在种子轮可以估值数十亿美元，这在逻辑上是说不通的。 如果A ...

美国经济对人工智能投资的依赖程度已达到危险水平。上周AI相关股票的剧烈波动暴露了一个更广泛 的风险：如果AI繁荣转向泡沫破裂，可能将整个经济拖入衰退。 标普500指数上周下跌约2%，市场对AI泡沫的担忧正在升温。分析师警告，一旦AI投资放缓或股价暴 跌，可能引发逆向财富效应，最终将脆弱的劳动力市场推向衰退。 AI投资成为经济增长唯一引擎 报道称，AI相关投资已成为支撑美国经济的核心支柱。 美国银行估算，微软、亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta四家公司今年的资本支出将达到3440亿美元，相当于 GDP的1.1%，较去年的2280亿美元大幅增长。 巴克莱银行估计，软件、计算机设备和数据中心投资在2025年上半年将GDP年化增长率拉高约1个百分 点，其中AI投资贡献了大部分。 尽管英伟达等公司销售的芯片占AI支出的大头，但多数需要进口，计入国内生产时需扣除。即便如 此，AI支出在上半年仍使产出年化增长0.8%，而同期GDP年化增速为1.6%。这意味着如果没有AI相关 支出增长，经济增速将仅为疲弱的0.8%。 11月24日，据报道，AI相关投资在今年上半年可能贡献了美国实际GDP增长的近一半。微软、亚马 逊、Alph ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在近期的震荡行情中，关于AI是否存在泡沫的讨论升温，知名投资人段永平也加入其中。日前，他在 回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。" 根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2025年三季度末，段永平管理的H&H International Investment持有英伟达59.78万股，持仓市值为1.12亿美元。英伟达位列其第八大持仓。不过，和二季度 末相比，段永平减持英伟达36.7万股。 段永平再谈英伟达 近日，段永平在回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。我很开心那些大空头成 了我的客户，我会很乐意收他们的保费的。我确实说过我要在伯克希尔·哈撒韦里面躲一会儿牛市，现 在似乎可以出来了哈。" 从近期段永平的发言中，能看出其对英伟达的最新态度。10月以来，段永平曾在雪球多次提及英伟达， 以及自己对AI板块的看法。 从国内市场看，机构依然对科技板块高度关注，大多认为尽管市场出现短期波动，但无碍AI行业的长 期向好趋势。 在近日与雪球创始人方三文对话时，段永平也说道："英伟达确实是厉害，我也看了 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the market remains cautious about the tech sector, with funds continuing to flow into defensive sectors like healthcare instead of returning to tech stocks [1][3]. - Nvidia's revenue grew by 65% year-over-year, with data center revenue increasing by 66%, and the company provided a fourth-quarter outlook of approximately $65 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $62 billion [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector are rising, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain their capital expenditures, leading to skepticism about the long-term viability of their aggressive spending strategies [4][5]. Group 2 - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment towards AI investments, with increased scrutiny and doubts about the profitability of AI applications, particularly following the release of Google's Gemini 3 model [6]. - Macroeconomic factors are also impacting market sentiment, with a significant decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which poses a threat to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [7][8]. - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 90% to around 27% [7].

1. 瑞银：预计本周数据表现将足够疲软，推高美联储年底前降息概率 瑞银全球财富管理的策略师在报告中表示，美元可能会走弱，因为美国本周公布的数据预计将表现疲 软。重要数据包括周二的零售销售、消费者信心以及成屋签约销售，周三将公布耐用品订单、每周初请 失业金人数以及新屋销售。策略师指出，这些数据将影响市场对经济增长、通胀以及美联储政策的预 期。"我们仍预计即将公布的数据会足够疲软，从而推动市场预期向12月降息概率上调，这将使美元在 年底前承压。" 2. 瑞银：明年AI与科技将引领全球股市上涨15% 瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室表示，人工智能以及更广泛的科技主题将在2026年继续成为全球股市 表现的主要驱动力，延续2025年的强劲走势。在最新展望中，瑞银认为宏观环境正在变得更加有利，预 计全球经济增长将在明年下半年趋于稳健。根据该行预测，美国GDP增速为1.7%，受益于更宽松的金 融环境和扩张性的财政政策。欧元区增速预计为1.1%，亚太地区接近5%。尽管市场仍担忧大型科技股 估值过高及潜在泡沫风险，瑞银依然保持乐观态度，认为人工智能、财政支持和货币宽松政策将继续推 动市场上涨，即便人口结构和去全球化等长期阻力仍在 ...