上周贵金属市场整体震荡，周内美指收涨，10Y美债收益率冲高回落，目前贵金属市场主要聚焦于特朗普关 税政策（8月1日前美国与其他国家贸易谈判以及对关键矿产调查）与美联储降息前景（7月31日FOMC会议 以及特朗普对美联储的施压）两个维度。周二晚间公布的美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为2月以来最高纪录， 预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%，符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主要受能源价格上涨影响。核心CPI同比 上涨2.9%，符合预期，前值2.8%；环比涨幅0.2%，高于前值0.1%，但低于预期0.3%，为连续第五个月低于 预期。数据整体反映关税对美通胀影响仍处于初步阶段。数据后贵金属承压调整，降息预期整体略有降温。 美联储26年票委洛根表示，基准预期是货币政策需要继续保持紧缩一段时间，以抑制通胀。周三晚间贵金属 波动加剧，因报道称特朗普已起草解雇鲍威尔信函，此后特朗普回应还不打算将其免职，引发贵金属市场先 涨后回吐的走势，其他金融资产亦剧烈波动。周四凌晨公布的美联储褐皮书显示，自五月底至七月初，经济 活动略有增长，经济前景偏中性至略偏悲观，只有两个地区预期经济活动将增长，其他地区则预计经济活动 将持平或略 ...

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - The tariff measures in the first half of 2025 were characterized by a "high opening and low closing" trend, with significant reductions in tariffs announced after April 9[6] - Actual tariff rates increased by only 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, leading to lower-than-expected tariff revenue growth[11] - China's share of U.S. imports dropped from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.4% by May 2025, indicating a shift in import sources due to tariff measures[13] Group 2: Export and Inflation Trends - Chinese exports showed stable volume and price increases, with a potential moderate decline expected in the future[23] - U.S. inflation remained low despite tariff increases, primarily due to weak demand in the automotive market and fluctuations in oil prices[32] - The actual tax rate increase led to a theoretical inflation rise of 2.1%, but the observed inflation was only 0.9% from January to May 2025, indicating a significant dampening effect from other economic factors[32] Group 3: Future Tariff Expectations and Risks - If further tariff increases are implemented, particularly targeting transshipment, the actual tariff rates and their economic impacts may exceed current expectations[33] - Risks associated with excessive TACO trading (Trump Always Chicken Out) should be monitored as they could affect market sensitivity to tariff changes[33] - A potential downturn in the U.S. economy could reverse the effects of tariff measures, posing additional risks to economic forecasts[34]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that since the implementation of tariffs in February, US core inflation has consistently underperformed expectations for five consecutive months. This is attributed to factors such as pre-positioning of imports and inventory cycles by US traders, increased imports from Mexico contributing to deflation, and the relatively low weight of tariff-sensitive core goods in the CPI. Additionally, tariffs have negatively impacted the service sector and overall US economic demand [1][10]. Fixed Income - The issuance of the first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is expected to enhance the demand for Sci-Tech bonds, as these ETFs offer low fees, high transparency, and efficient trading mechanisms. This could lead to a significant increase in the scale of these ETFs and consequently boost the demand for underlying bonds. If the growth rate is rapid, the underlying bonds may experience a favorable market trend, outperforming individual bonds of similar credit quality [2][11][14]. - The report indicates that the introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs will improve market liquidity for these bonds, allowing investors to participate more easily and enhancing market activity. This is expected to compress liquidity premiums and improve the performance of Sci-Tech bond varieties [2][11][14]. Industry - The domestic automotive lighting industry is currently characterized by a "two super, many strong" competitive landscape, with market share expected to continue concentrating towards leading firms. The industry has high entry barriers due to customer resources, technology development, cost control, and quality certification [3][15]. - The report notes a significant decline in Japanese lighting manufacturers over the past decade, while European manufacturers have maintained stability. Domestic leaders like Xingyu have shown continuous growth, with revenue surpassing competitors [3][15][16]. - Investment recommendations favor Xingyu as a leading domestic automotive lighting company, driven by the ongoing intelligent upgrades in automotive lighting, which are expected to increase average selling prices (ASP) and industry growth potential. The company has established deep partnerships with major clients in the new energy vehicle sector, positioning it well for future growth [3][15][16]. - Profit forecasts for Xingyu indicate expected net profits of 1.761 billion, 2.189 billion, and 2.683 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [3][15][16]. Public Utilities - The report discusses the renewable energy operator industry, highlighting that three major constraints (electricity prices, consumption, and subsidies) are expected to ease, leading to a reversal for green electricity operators. The introduction of a unified pricing mechanism for renewable energy is anticipated to stabilize electricity prices and improve project profitability [5][17][18]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality green electricity operators with pure green assets, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and China General Nuclear Power as potential beneficiaries of the expected market improvements [5][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by tariffs, geopolitical situations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, with a general outlook remaining bullish after adjustments [1][6][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3,363.64 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the week, reaching a high of $3,376.99 and a low of $3,309.90, ultimately closing at $3,350.90, reflecting a weekly decline of $6.86 or 0.2% [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The market sentiment was affected by comments from U.S. officials regarding tariff negotiations and interest rate policies, which reduced risk concerns and pressured gold prices [3][4][7]. - The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations provided support for gold prices, indicating potential for upward movement despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high, which could favor gold prices in the long term [7]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently anticipated, potentially leading to significant increases in gold prices in the coming years [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential risk of a downturn to $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3,341 and $3,334, with resistance at $3,365 and $3,385 [12].

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [周期更长的投资逻辑， Table_NewTitle] 从价格反弹到业 绩兑现 ——资产配置周报（2025/07/14-2025/07/18） [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。7月18日当周，全球股市多数收涨；主要商品期货中铜、铝收涨，黄 金、原油下跌；美元指数上涨，非美货币贬值。1）权益方面：恒生科技指数>创业板指> ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act significantly reduces corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, allowing for immediate tax deductions on qualified production property and extending other tax incentives for business investments [2] - The Act aims to stimulate economic growth by increasing the actual GDP growth rate by 3% and creating over 7 million jobs, particularly benefiting small businesses and innovation [3][4] - However, the sustainability of economic growth from tax cuts is questionable, with potential diminishing returns and strict time limits on personal income tax reductions [4] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Government Spending - The Act plans to cut at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, primarily targeting social welfare programs to offset the increased fiscal deficit caused by tax cuts [5][6] - The projected increase in government deficit due to tax cuts is estimated at $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, raising concerns about the government's ability to manage its debt [6][7] - The Act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an accelerated expansion of U.S. debt, with projections indicating a debt-to-GDP ratio increase from 122% to over 125% [7][8] Group 3: Social Welfare and Income Distribution - The Act proposes significant cuts to social welfare programs, including nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, which may disproportionately affect low-income individuals while favoring wealthier taxpayers [10][11] - The changes in tax policy are expected to exacerbate income inequality, with lower-income groups facing net losses while higher-income groups benefit from substantial tax reductions [11][12] - The cancellation of renewable energy tax credits may lead to increased energy costs, further straining low-income households already affected by welfare cuts [12]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.08% and a year-on-year increase of 2.28%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1630.4 in July, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 20, 2025, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%[3] - The operating rate of rebar production increased by 0.36 percentage points to 43.06%[3] Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables decreased by 0.09%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.44% and 1.05% respectively as of July 18, 2025[3] - The price of glass increased by 8.66% due to the "anti-involution" policy and a decrease in production[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week, new special bonds issued amounted to 123 billion, with local general bonds at 19 billion, achieving a 60.8% issuance progress[3] - The issuance of special bonds (excluding debt relief) reached 1,315 billion, with a 53.0% progress[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. CPI for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. retail sales nominal month-on-month growth was 0.6%, exceeding expectations primarily due to price increases rather than volume[4]

Group 1 - Beef prices in the U.S. have surged significantly, with ground beef prices increasing by 12% year-over-year and premium steak prices rising by 8%, marking historical highs [1][3] - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 72 years, with only 86.7 million head of cattle reported, leading to increased reliance on beef imports, which exceed 4 million pounds annually [3] - Tariffs imposed on Brazilian beef, a crucial component of the American diet, threaten to disrupt supply chains, as U.S. meat processors blend imported lean beef with domestic fatty beef for products like hamburgers [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is facing challenges, with 90% of tomatoes and significant portions of fresh fruits and vegetables being imported, highlighting vulnerabilities in domestic production [3] - The impact of tariffs extends beyond beef, affecting various food items such as coffee and orange juice, which are heavily sourced from Brazil, indicating a broader "food inflation" crisis [4] - The current trade policies are pushing key suppliers like Brazil to seek new markets, potentially destabilizing the U.S. food supply chain and increasing costs for consumers [3][4]