瑞达期货研究院 「2025.5.30」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 总的来看，贸易战局势同地缘政治形势虽反复不断，长期能否如预期般好转仍需观察，需警惕供需边际变化。头 部船司集装箱运力维持高增趋势，全球运力供给持续上涨，在需求未能显著改善的背景下，运力过剩仍是未来供给端 面临的巨大压力，限制了2025年航运景气度的回升空间压。目前消息驱动特征较为显著，建议投资者谨慎为主，注意 操作节奏及风险控制， 应及时跟踪地缘、运力与货量数据，注意仓位管理以规避波动风险。 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | -0.01 | -0.10 | 1834.80 | | | EC2508 | -6.25 | -138.40 ...

Group 1 - The U.S.-Japan trade relationship is under strain due to the U.S. imposing a 24% tariff on Japanese automobiles and parts, which has led to a 37% drop in Japan's monthly exports of cars to the U.S. and a direct economic loss exceeding $12 billion [1][3] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $68 billion in 2023, while its trade deficit with other countries was $82 billion, highlighting a structural imbalance that necessitates a reevaluation of Japan's economic dependencies [1][3] - Japanese companies are responding to the tariff impacts by increasing foreign investments, such as Toyota's $5 billion investment in foreign markets over the next three years, focusing on the electric vehicle supply chain [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as an alternative strategy, indicating a shift towards regional economic cooperation [3] - There is a growing concern within Japan's political and business circles about the sustainability of relying heavily on the U.S. for security while facing economic challenges, suggesting a potential pivot towards more pragmatic foreign relations [3] - The ongoing tariff conflict may serve as a turning point for Japan to adopt a more realistic diplomatic approach, moving away from the traditional "security first" mindset [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suspended certain licenses allowing American companies to sell products and technology to Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), aiming to weaken China's development of the C919 passenger aircraft [2] - This action is a response to China's export controls on key rare earth minerals, which are crucial for various U.S. industries, including automotive, aerospace, and military [4] - The C919 aircraft poses a competitive threat to Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320, as it has rapidly gained market traction and begun regular commercial operations [6] - The U.S. government is attempting to pressure China regarding rare earth exports by restricting technology related to the C919, reflecting concerns over maintaining competitive advantages in the aerospace sector [6] - The geopolitical significance of the aerospace industry is highlighted, as the success of the C919 represents China's advancements in civil aviation and enhances its influence in the global high-tech industry [6] - The U.S. strategy aims to curb China's development in high-end manufacturing sectors to maintain its global dominance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Birol, suggests that Europe is being underestimated and that geopolitical factors may work in their favor [1] Group 1 - Europe is currently facing challenges but has potential advantages due to geopolitical dynamics [1] - The statement implies a shift in perception regarding Europe's energy position on the global stage [1] - Birol's comments highlight the importance of geopolitical considerations in energy markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between China and the United States in the technology sector is intensifying, with the notion of "who will win" being an outdated perspective. The rise of AI technology is reshaping industries and geopolitical landscapes, indicating that power is no longer solely determined by size and scale, but by the ability to coordinate and gain support from various parties [1]. Group 1 - The current geopolitical narrative is overly focused on traditional power concepts such as military strength and resources, which no longer accurately reflect the world's reality [1]. - The semiconductor industry exemplifies how U.S. attempts to suppress China's technological capabilities have inadvertently accelerated China's innovation [1]. - Countries that attempt to coerce others into choosing sides may face isolation, as both the U.S. and China are concerned about their national security, but this is not the only reality in today's world [1]. Group 2 - Neutral countries should focus on embedding themselves in key nodes, such as becoming financial or logistics hubs, to gain influence rather than choosing sides [2]. - Malaysia and Singapore are leveraging their positions as network hubs or logistics nodes to exert greater influence than their size would suggest [2]. - Malaysia is striving to become Southeast Asia's data center, with the total capacity of AI data centers in Johor expected to rise from 10 megawatts three years ago to over 1,500 megawatts by 2024, potentially surpassing Virginia, USA, in five years [2]. Group 3 - Concerns about the technological decoupling between China and the U.S. were expressed by executives from Chinese companies, emphasizing the desire for a world that is not fragmented by technology choices [3]. - Neutral countries like those in ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council provide a buffer space for both China and the U.S., allowing different technologies to coexist without being labeled as either Chinese or American [4].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

地缘紧张与增产预期相互博弈 油价止跌回升凸显市场分歧 金十数据5月28日讯，市场在对立的地缘政治和供应情景中权衡，油价从前一日的抛售中回升。 Naga.com中东分析师George Pavel在一份报告中指出，近期的横盘交易反映出市场对供需预期的变化。 他补充称，美国阻止雪佛龙出口委内瑞拉原油已收紧供应，而美国对俄罗斯能源出口进一步制裁的前景 强化了油价反弹的可能性。不过，这被以下预期所抵消：欧佩克+可能在7月进一步大幅增产，以及美 伊核谈判可能促使伊朗原油重返市场。近几个月的产量增加，加上美国原油库存累积，表明市场正日益 倾向于供应过剩。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing uncertainty in the second half of the year due to fluctuating tariffs and geopolitical risks, but emphasizes the importance of its collaboration with Intel on the 12nm project as a strategic necessity [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Outlook - The company’s CFO noted that visibility for the second half of the year is limited, with clients adopting a wait-and-see approach and reducing inventory levels [1]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) is expected to significantly impact the company's performance, with a 1% increase in NTD eroding approximately 0.4% of the gross margin [1]. - The average exchange rate has shifted from around 32.5-33 NTD per USD to approximately 30 NTD per USD, which poses challenges for revenue [1]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with Intel is structured around a division of labor, with manufacturing taking place at Intel's facilities in the U.S. and a focus on joint research and development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by offering customized processes that competitors cannot provide, particularly as it transitions from 28nm to 22nm processes [2]. - The trend of "China for China, Non-China for Non-China" is becoming more pronounced, with an increasing proportion of local customers in the company's factories in China, indicating a rise in domestic demand [2].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent macroeconomic concerns regarding U.S. debt and deficits have led to a temporary rebound in U.S. Treasury and dollar index, but the previous bullish sentiment in precious metals has not sustained, resulting in profit-taking [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating improved economic outlook among consumers, despite a decline in durable goods orders [2] - The recent geopolitical stability has contributed to a short-term correction in precious metals, with expectations of gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by late 2025 or 2026 [3] Group 2: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility due to changes in trade relations between major economies, with a notable drop of nearly $60 in New York futures following shifts in U.S.-EU trade dynamics [4] - The current decline in gold prices marks the third correction since reaching above $3,500 on April 22, suggesting a weakening upward momentum that may indicate a significant market shift if the trend continues [4] - Analysts caution that the market's response to geopolitical narratives is swift, and the recent adjustments in precious metals may not be merely temporary [4]