Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].

晚间特朗普公布半导体相关信息，关税问题是否进一步发酵，避险情绪能否推动黄金再创新高？立即观 看超V推荐官Jason的讲解，直播间可领取超V黄金短线分析>>> 相关链接 ...

一、市场震荡犹在：特朗普关税风波引爆，上周全球金融市场动荡加剧 回顾上周，全球金融市场仿佛置身"过山车"之中，受特朗普政府关税政策反复无常的影响，市场避险情 绪快速升温，引发美元、美债、美股三线共振下行。尽管上周后段出现短暂修复，但整体波动率依旧居 高不下。 美股方面，三大股指上演大幅震荡行情。标普500指数全周累计上涨5.7%，创下自去年11月以来最大单 周涨幅，纳指和道指亦分别录得7.29%和4.95%的显著反弹。然而，这轮反弹并未带来真正的乐观情 绪。自4月初特朗普突然宣布大范围征收"对等关税"以来，市场对全球贸易格局和经济前景的担忧始终 未退。 与此同时，避险资产成为资金避风港。黄金价格连续刷新历史新高，现货金价一度突破3245美元/盎 司，年内累计涨幅已超22%。美元指数则连续下挫，上周跌幅超过3%，失守百点大关，美债市场亦面 临"买家罢工"式的抛售压力，10年期美债收益率周涨幅创下20年来新高。 可以说，特朗普掀起的这场关税博弈，在上周已深刻扰动全球资产定价体系，为本周行情埋下更多不确 定因子。 二、政策路径更变：电子产品"豁免"风波，再引市场焦虑情绪 就在市场对政策走向高度紧张之际，上周末，特朗 ...

这个市场中，一则关税消息的影响力之大，足以让此前所有基于技术面的分析预测瞬间失效。回顾近期行情，我们可以清晰看到，短短三天内，黄金价格先 是大幅下跌211美元，而后又迅速反弹，三天内暴涨2275美元。如此剧烈且频繁的价格波动，几乎完全是由各类消息所驱动，再次凸显了消息面在当前黄金 市场中的决定性作用。 黄金技术面分析：从单纯的技术分析视角出发，周线大阳线的强劲表现，明确显示出当下多头势力掌控全局的市场格局。值得关注的是，亚盘在过去一个多 月的时间里，形成了一种独特的开盘必涨规律。深入盘面细节，我们可以发现，黄金美盘的低点3220-3215区域成为了多空强弱的关键分水岭。当价格运行 于该区域上方时，市场呈现出明显的强势特征；一旦价格跌破这一区域，市场则极有可能转向弱势格局。 同样亚盘回撤低点3185-3190区域，也构成了多空的重要分界线，价格维持在此区域之上，多头占据主导；若不幸跌破，市场很可能迅速切换至空头模式， 甚至引发快速暴跌行情。展望上方空间，目前仍存在较大的不确定性，投资者可重点关注3245-3250区域的新高突破情况，随后则是3265-3260区域以及具有 重要心理意义的3300美元大关。由于周末 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, with COMEX gold futures rising by 3.73% to $3194.2 per ounce [1] - The recent data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), marking the first decline since May 2020, which has led traders to bet on the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts in June [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) has seen a continuous inflow of over 800 million in the past 14 trading days, reaching a total scale of 3.17 billion, a record high since its inception [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia gold ETF (518850) closely tracks gold price movements and supports T+0 trading, making it suitable for investors with asset allocation needs [2] - Since the fee reduction nearly halved in October 2024, the share scale of the Huaxia gold ETF has increased by over 4.15 times, allowing investors to participate in the gold sector at a more favorable cost [2]

Group 1 - Guosen Securities has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for the acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhua Securities for a transaction price of 5.192 billion yuan, which will enhance its capital strength and market competitiveness [1] - The acquisition is expected to positively impact Guosen Securities' stock price and contribute to the overall stability of the stock market by optimizing resource allocation within the securities industry [1] Group 2 - The first batch of fund quarterly reports for 2025 shows significant adjustments, with fund managers concentrating their core positions in the humanoid robot industry, reflecting a strong pursuit of emerging sectors [2] - The reported returns for the funds, such as 53.65% for Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A and 37.12% for Huafu Technology Momentum Mixed A, significantly outperformed their benchmarks, indicating a strong market interest in humanoid robotics [2] Group 3 - The scale of gold ETFs has surged to 116.029 billion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 64.72%, driven by rising risk aversion in global financial markets [3] - Major gold ETFs from fund companies like Huasan, Bosera, and E Fund have seen substantial growth, with increases of 63.7%, 49.1%, and 49.13% respectively, benefiting the related fund companies [3] Group 4 - Leading private equity firms are actively increasing their investments in Chinese assets, with firms like Kwan Der Investment and Inno Investment buying back their long strategies amid a favorable economic recovery and ongoing technological trends [4] - High positions maintained by firms such as Gao Yi Asset and Shen Zhi Asset indicate confidence in Chinese assets, which is expected to attract more institutional funds into the A-share and Hong Kong markets [4]

黄金实时分析 美国关税政策变数多多，避险情绪未消散，黄金多头卷土重来？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to decline, while spot gold prices have rebounded strongly, surpassing $3000, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to concerns over escalating trade wars [1][2] - President Trump emphasized the importance of tariffs to his economic agenda and stated that he has no plans to suspend tariff policies, indicating a potential for permanent tariffs while also suggesting negotiations could occur [2][4] - China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the US's threats of increasing tariffs by 50%, stating that if the US proceeds with these measures, China will take resolute countermeasures to protect its rights [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the recent statements from both US and Chinese officials have intensified market risk aversion, contributing to the rebound in gold prices after a previous decline [2] - Economies.com analysts reported that gold prices are attempting to recover some losses, testing the psychological resistance level at $3000, although the upward movement is constrained by short-term corrective downward trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The unexpected escalation of the tariff war led to concerns about the slowdown of global economic demand growth, increasing risk aversion and driving up treasury bond futures. However, today before the market, domestic policy signals to stabilize the stock market emerged, and the central bank will support Central Huijin to stabilize the stock market, easing market sentiment and weakening risk - aversion demand. In the short term, the central bank has little need to implement easing policies as the first - quarter economic indicators are good. Overseas, the tariff war poses inflation and growth risks to the US economy, leaving the Fed in a dilemma. Overall, policy is actively stabilizing the equity market, risk aversion has cooled, and the short - term need for the central bank to cut interest rates is low. There is still a possibility of future interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On April 8 before the market, the People's Bank of China and Central Huijin Company spoke out. Central Huijin will continue to play the role of a "stabilizer" in the capital market, and will increase its holdings of ETFs of various market styles. The central bank will support Central Huijin to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and provide re - loans if necessary. The central bank conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 8 at an operating rate of 1.50% [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Lead) [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The downstream is affected by the off - season, with weak inventory preparation and light market trading. The supply side has both increases and decreases, and the fundamentals have insufficient support for lead prices. With the intensification of the US tariff policy on the macro - level, although the policy itself has little impact on the lead market, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and lead prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected that lead prices will be mainly sorted at a low level in the short term, with an operating range of 16,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 2.02% to 16,975 yuan/ton; the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 2.92% to 17,100 yuan/ton; the London lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 5.90% to 1,906 US dollars/ton [15] - **Basis**: Data on the basis, Shanghai lead spot premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, and the difference between consecutive contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][22][23] 2. Increases and Decreases Coexist, and Primary Lead Operation Fluctuates Slightly - **Refinery Situation**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with the domestic TC at 650 yuan/metal ton and the imported TC at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. The mine end was continuously in short supply, and there was no expectation of adjustment in market TC quotes. Refinery profits recovered, reaching 69 yuan/ton as of March 28 [31] - **Primary Lead Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 61.48%. In April, electrolytic lead maintenance and restart coexisted, and the output was expected to be the same as that in March. If lead prices continued to fall, refineries might cut production [32][37] - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelters decreased from 49,525 tons in the week of March 28 to 46,995 tons this week due to factors such as refinery maintenance [40] 3. The Operation of Secondary Lead Recovers, but the Raw Material Problem Remains Unsolved - **Waste Battery Prices**: As of April 7, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton month - on - month [48] - **Secondary Lead Profits**: As of April 3, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 422 yuan/ton [54] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: As of April 4, secondary lead raw material inventory was 17.91 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,440 tons. Refineries stocked up before the festival, but waste battery supplies were still tight, and downstream demand decreased during the festival, leading to inventory accumulation [58] - **Secondary Lead Operating Rate**: The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 3.14 percentage points to 62.46%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 67,400 tons. Some refineries in Anhui increased their operation due to more raw material arrivals, while operations in Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia were relatively stable [61] 4. The Off - Season Intensifies, and Battery Operation Declines - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The lead battery operating rate decreased by 3.65 percentage points to 70.21%. Affected by the off - season and rising prices of auxiliary materials such as antimony and tin, battery enterprises' production enthusiasm was low, and some enterprises chose to stop production or adjust their production plans [70] 5. Import and Export Profit Windows are Closed - **Export and Import Situation**: As of March 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of April 7, the import profit was - 117.59 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [79] 6. Social Inventory Decreases Slightly - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 70,000 tons, showing a decrease. The decline in primary lead enterprise operation and pre - festival inventory preparation by downstream enterprises led to a slight decrease in social inventory [89] - **SHFE and LME Inventories**: As of April 3, SHFE refined lead inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease month - on - month. As of March 21, LME inventory was 235,850 tons, showing an increase [92] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data on the monthly supply - demand balance of lead from January 2024 to February 2025 are presented, including primary lead output, secondary lead output, export volume, import volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [93]