Group 1: Grain Market Overview - Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.13%, closing at 30.6194 points [1] - CBOT corn futures remained flat at $4.3825 per bushel [2] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 0.56%, settling at $5.3575 per bushel [3] - CBOT soybean futures rose by 0.70%, reaching $10.41 per bushel, with soybean meal futures up by 0.10% and soybean oil futures up by 1.15% [4] Group 2: Sugar and Coffee Markets - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 0.41%, while ICE white sugar futures rose by 0.98% [5] - ICE Arabica coffee futures fell by 1.28%, with coffee "C" futures down by 1.26% and Robusta coffee futures decreasing by 1.27% [6] Group 3: Cocoa and Cotton Markets - New York cocoa futures surged by 3.11%, closing at $9,769 per ton, while London cocoa futures increased by 0.95% [7] - ICE cotton futures declined by 0.23% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.42%, breaking below the recent support level due to speculative long - position liquidation [2]. - The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of June 1, 2025, was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The fast planting progress and good good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market. However, heavy rains in Argentina in mid - to - late May may damage the soybean harvest, which boosts the market [2]. - In the domestic market, since this month, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has significantly increased, and the supply has become more ample, putting pressure on the meal market prices. For rapeseed meal, after the tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal is increased, the direct import pressure will significantly decline, and the supply is likely to tighten later. But the new import of Indian rapeseed meal and relatively high short - term inventory pressure drag on the rapeseed meal market price [2]. - The short - term market still focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Last week, the weather in the Canadian prairie region was hot, dry, and with little precipitation, raising concerns about drought risks. However, the weather forecast shows that there will be beneficial rainfall in the prairie region this week [2]. - The palm oil producing areas have entered the seasonal production - increasing season, with increased output pressure. However, the improvement in export demand supports the palm oil market. India's reduction of CPO import tariffs may further benefit Malaysian palm oil exports, which boosts the domestic oil market. In the domestic market, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to constrain the market price, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for the domestic rapeseed oil market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9272 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2557 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 686.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 24.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 162 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 244 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract positions were 295183 hands, down 2199 hands; rapeseed meal main contract positions were 552037 hands, down 18839 hands [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Net long positions of rapeseed oil were 26574 hands, down 3638 hands; net long positions of rapeseed meal were - 27832 hands, down 25527 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 27429, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8020 yuan/ton, unchanged; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; oil - meal ratio was 3.64, down 0.06 [2]. - Average price: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9563.75 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5095.95 yuan/ton, down 157.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 212 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 23.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 15.04 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2 million tons, down 0.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.96%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 20.97%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.61%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.88%, up 1.93 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 27.09%, up 0.33 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.66 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.92%, down 0.17 percentage points [2].

期货热点追踪 菜粕、菜油期货午盘跳水，市场到底发生了什么？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On June 3, the JM2509 contract closed at 719.0, down 3.03%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 735. With a loose supply, stable mine production, and a continuous increase in clean coal inventory, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. - On June 3, the J2509 contract closed at 1299.0, down 1.10%. The second - round price cut has been implemented on the spot side. With Trump's tariff increase plan, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The loose supply of raw materials weakens cost support, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 39 yuan/ton this period. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为719.00元/吨，环比下跌7.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1299.00元/吨，环比下跌9.00元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为680451.00手，环比增加29469.00手；J期货合约持仓量为59323.00手，环比减少41.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 14148.00手，环比增加23893.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为2338.00手，环比增加874.00手 [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差为16.50元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为23.50元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，环比持平；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比持平 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为735.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为117.50美元/湿吨，环比持平；唐山二级冶金焦价格为1525.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1200.00元/吨，环比下跌20.00元；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1440.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1270.00元/吨，环比下跌30.00元；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1340.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比持平；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1050.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为331.00元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J主力合约基差为221.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元 [2]. 3.3上游情况 - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为310.98万吨，环比减少5.50万吨；精煤库存为222.07万吨，环比增加7.33万吨 [2]. - 110家洗煤厂开工率为61.55%，环比下降0.81个百分点；原煤产量为38930.60万吨，环比减少5127.60万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3783.00万吨，环比减少90.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比减少1.80万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.76万吨，环比增加18.27万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为271.78万吨，环比减少4.90万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为846.33万吨，环比减少19.40万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为111.38万吨，环比增加8.13万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为786.79万吨，环比减少11.96万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为654.93万吨，环比减少5.66万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.50天，环比减少0.20天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.71天，环比减少0.18天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为889.34万吨，环比增加25.97万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为55.00万吨，环比减少21.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4161.47万吨，环比持平；独立焦企产能利用率为75.66%，环比下降0.21个百分点 [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 39.00元/吨，环比减少24.00元；焦炭产量为4160.00万吨，环比增加30.60万吨 [2]. 3.4全国下游情况 - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.89%，环比增加0.22个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.67%，环比下降0.63个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比减少682.24万吨 [2]. 3.5行业消息 - 全国多地加强管控，严防战略矿产非法外流，如贵州按部署分工工作，湖南摸排战略矿产出口企业，广西查处非法采矿行为 [2]. - 欧盟正制定针对俄罗斯的第18轮制裁措施，涵盖“北溪”基础设施、俄罗斯银行业及下调原油价格上限等 [2]. - 美国贸易代表办公室延长对中国相关行为、政策及做法301调查的豁免期限至2025年8月31日 [2]. - 新疆伊尔克什坦口岸自本月起试行全时段货运通关 [2].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-03 | 环比 | 数据指标 最新 数据指标 最新 | 项目类别 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) 4745 -19 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) 609137 | 期货市场 | -519956 | | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) 1020928 10780 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) 781397 | | | -362 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) 842003 11308 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) -60606 | | | -11670 | | | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) 5010 4680 | 现货市场 | | 14.23 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) 4935 15 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) 4766.25 | | | 20.62 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) 710 0 PVC ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注检修停产情况 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：区间运行 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 沥青：跟随原油反弹，短线震荡为主 | 6 | | LLDPE：偏弱震荡 | 9 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 11 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：成本宽幅震荡，短期支撑走弱 | 24 | | PVC：低位震荡，短期不宜追空 | 27 | | 燃料油：大跌趋势延续，短期波动将持续放大 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差出现反弹 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：上方空间有限，中期偏弱势 | 34 | | 瓶片：上方空间有限，中期偏弱势 | 34 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡偏弱 | 35 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 62.52 | 61.84 | 1.10% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 64.63 | 64.90 | -0.42% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 0.00 | 569.50 | -100.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/30 | | 美元/吨 | 708.50 | 716.50 | -1.12% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 841.33 | 852.17 | -1.27% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/30 | 元/吨 | 4700.00 | 48 ...

1. Market Performance Summary - On May 30, A-share three major indices collectively pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% to 10040.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 1993.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and sorted out on May 30, closing at 3840.23, down 18.47 from the previous day [1]. - The coke weighted index was weak on May 30, closing at 1309.3 yuan, down 28.1 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 728.3 yuan, down 39.5 from the previous day [1]. 2. Product - Specific Analysis Futures Index - The A - share market showed a collective decline on May 30, with reduced trading volume [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Coke enterprises suffered small losses, with short - term supply remaining stable. Steel mills had a driving force to reduce production in the off - season, leading to a decline in real demand for coke. Coke enterprises saw inventory accumulation, and the second round of price cuts was implemented [1]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines in the main production areas limited production, and the import inventory at the China - Mongolia border accumulated again. The real demand for coking coal declined as the blast furnace hot metal output peaked and declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the year - on - year decline in sugar production in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region and the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher during the holiday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of May was 2408000 tons, a 6.8% decline from the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The rubber - tapping season in Cote d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and Thailand led to an increase in spot supply. Uncertainty in US tariff and trade policies and weak US economic data affected market sentiment, causing the Japanese rubber futures price and Southeast Asian spot quotes to decline during the holiday [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market rose continuously last week, but gave back some gains on the Friday night session. The increase in production in May in Malaysia narrowed, the increase in exports expanded, and the inventory pressure eased. The domestic palm oil market had weak supply and demand, and the origin palm oil was still the key factor [3][4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures were weak on June 2. Ample Brazilian soybean supply suppressed prices. Domestically, with the increase in soybean arrivals, the soybean inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly [4][5]. Live Pigs - On May 30, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The breeding end's slaughter rhythm changed, and the overall market was in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was in a situation of long - short entanglement. The supply side had a tight expectation, while the demand side entered the off - season, but some terminal demands showed good performance [6]. Iron Ore - On May 30, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down. Overseas shipments decreased, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron ore market showed a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On May 30, the asphalt 2507 main contract oscillated and declined. The capacity utilization rate and shipment volume decreased, and the market was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, showing a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Cotton - Last week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13275 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the growth of cotton seedlings in Xinjiang was generally good, but there were some problems in some areas [7]. Logs - The 2507 log contract showed certain characteristics on May 30. The spot price had some support, and the futures price rebounded. The market entered the off - season, with weak demand and little change in the supply - demand relationship [7][9]. Steel - The US export tax ruling event reversed again, and the market sentiment was affected. The short - term possibility of steel mill production reduction was low, and the terminal demand was limited. The overall market was considered weak [9]. Alumina - Guinea revoked the exploration licenses of some mining companies, affecting the supply of bauxite. The domestic demand for alumina remained relatively stable, and the fundamentals were in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable, and the demand decreased slightly as the market transitioned from the peak consumption season to the off - season [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The cost support weakened, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to improve, putting downward pressure on the price [11].