每经编辑|杜宇 美当地时间8月28日，美股高开高走，三大指数集体收涨。纳指涨0.53%，标普500指数涨0.32%，道指涨0.16%。其中，道指、标普500指数均再创收盘新 高。 大型科技股多数上涨，谷歌涨超2%，亚马逊涨逾1%，苹果、微软、奈飞、Meta、英特尔小幅上涨；特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达小幅下跌。量子计算概念股领 涨，Quantum Computing涨超8%，Rigetti Computing涨超7%，D-Wave Quantum涨超4%。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.14%。向上融科涨近11%，金山云、爱奇艺涨超6%，理想汽车、蔚来涨近3%；阿特斯太阳能跌逾8%， 腾讯音乐、小鹏汽车跌超3%，阿里巴巴跌逾2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.32%，报14810点。 8月28日晚间，离岸人民币汇率大涨约300点，一度涨至7.1173元，为2024年11月6日以来首次突破7.12元，值得注意的是，人民币升值的幅度远超美元贬值幅 度。 纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1202元，较周三纽约尾盘涨337点，日内整体交投于7.1551~7.1183元区间。 COMEX黄金期货 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market needs a period of adjustment rather than a continuous rise, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [1][5] - The market is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3800 points, while individual stocks show a divergence in performance, with about half declining despite the index rising [3][5] - The recent market rally is characterized by a "slow bull" trend rather than a "fast bull" or "crazy bull" market, indicating a focus on quality and sustainability rather than short-term gains [7] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14% to close at 3843.6 points, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index, which increased by 3.82% [3][7] - The market's trading volume has shown a healthy pattern, with a decrease of nearly 200 billion in transaction volume compared to the previous day, yet maintaining above 3 trillion [3][5] - The recent market behavior reflects a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern, indicating a gradual investment approach by different market participants [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal battle surrounding President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential impact on financing costs, with some investors expressing optimism about lower rates despite concerns over institutional integrity [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The market reacted calmly to Trump's actions, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remaining stable, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase of 0.3%. Long-term Treasury yields rose, and short-term yields fell, indicating investor expectations of potential rate cuts in the short term [3]. - Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, believes that the current monetary policy is overly tight, with rates 150 basis points above neutral levels, suggesting that the Fed's policies are excessively suppressing economic growth [3][5]. - Hatfield anticipates at least two rate cuts this year, aligning with dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and views the potential for a Republican-dominated Fed Board as a catalyst for rate reductions [7][8]. Group 2: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - Other economists express skepticism about the implications of Trump's actions, warning that his attempts to control the Fed could undermine democratic foundations and institutional integrity [9]. - Analysts from Piper Sandler caution that the market's belief in its ability to constrain Trump is misguided, highlighting past failures to predict economic crises and inflation shocks [10]. - The article notes that the structure of the Fed could be fundamentally altered with more Trump nominees, potentially reshaping the Federal Open Market Committee's power dynamics [10]. Group 3: Short-term Focus and Future Expectations - UBS Global Wealth Management strategists expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the next four meetings, while acknowledging increasing political pressure on the Fed [11][12]. - Hatfield argues that the real issue lies in the Fed's long-standing ineffectiveness rather than Trump's confrontation, suggesting that any changes to the current situation would be beneficial for the market [12].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, maintaining short-term bullish hopes despite recent price pressures from a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Silver prices found support around $38.00 after a slight decline, rebounding to approximately $38.50 from a low of $38.08 [1]. - The recent pullback has brought silver back to the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, currently near the critical support area around $38.13 [3]. - A decisive break below the support level of $38.13 could invalidate the recent bullish breakout and shift short-term momentum in favor of bearish positions [3]. Group 2: Indicators and Market Sentiment - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly recovering while the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating weakness [1]. - The RSI is hovering around 50, suggesting a lack of clear directional strength, while the MACD shows a decrease in bullish momentum with a bearish crossover [3]. - Future resistance levels are identified at $38.63 and $39.06, with a need for sustained breakthroughs to restore bullish momentum towards the next target of $39.53 [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The silver market is under pressure due to renewed demand for the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are impacting precious metals [1]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened following President Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed official Lisa Cook, contributing to market volatility [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - With the digestion of the positive effects of China's "anti-involution" policy and the high-level correction of domestic coal futures prices, the cost support for methanol has significantly weakened. The supply of methanol has increased due to the end of domestic device overhauls and the arrival of external supplies, while downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. In August 2025, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with the price dropping from 2500 yuan/ton to 2369 yuan/ton, a cumulative maximum decline of 5.24%. Although the futures price rebounded, the medium-term downward trend continued. In the absence of fundamental improvement, the methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][11]. - From a macro perspective, the weakening of US non-farm payroll data, the rise in unemployment, and a slight rebound in inflation have led the Fed to consider interest rate cuts. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may do so again in December. The enhanced expectation of interest rate cuts and the 90-day postponement of China-US trade tariff negotiations have created a relatively warm macro environment [6]. - From an industrial factor perspective, the weakening cost support, high external import pressure, off-season downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation at ports suggest that the methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Methanol Futures Trends in August 2025 - The digestion of policy benefits and the decline in coal futures prices have weakened cost support. The supply has increased due to the end of overhauls and the arrival of imports, while downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to inventory accumulation. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend in August, with a maximum decline of 5.24%. The medium-term downward trend continued, and the contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [11]. Chapter 2: Improvement in the Macro Environment and Enhanced Expectation of Fed Interest Rate Cuts - In August 2025, the overseas macro environment was relatively optimistic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and both sides suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. Trump's nomination of "dovish" officials and the release of inflation and employment data suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [13][14]. Chapter 3: Steady Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 - In July 2025, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and the cultivation and growth of new productive forces. However, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index declined slightly. Other economic indicators showed positive trends, and the overall economy showed strong resilience and vitality [30][31]. Chapter 4: Year-on-Year Decline in China's Coal Production and Imports in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's raw coal production decreased year-on-year, while coal imports increased compared to June but decreased compared to the same period last year. The annual coal import volume is expected to decline from 5.43 billion tons in 2024 to about 4 billion tons in 2025, which can relieve the supply pressure of thermal coal to some extent [52][54]. Chapter 5: High-Level Operation of Domestic Methanol Supply in August 2025 - Since the third quarter of 2025, the increase in coal prices has led to a significant reduction in the device profits of coal-to-methanol enterprises. Although there was a wave of concentrated overhauls in July, the devices gradually resumed production in late July. As of August 22, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, and the weekly output was 1.8974 million tons. In the second half of the year, the methanol market supply pattern will remain loose, with an expected increase in total production of about 9.5% to 85.5 million tons [57][59]. Chapter 6: Sufficient Overseas Methanol Supply and Increased Import Expectations - In the third quarter, overseas methanol supply is sufficient, but international demand is weak, leading to an increase in exports to China. In July, China's methanol imports were affected by typhoons, with 200,000 tons postponed to August. It is expected that the import volume in August will reach 1.55 million tons, and the high import trend will continue in September. Coastal port methanol inventories are likely to continue to rise, and the 2509 contract is expected to have a large amount of imported goods for delivery [67][69]. Chapter 7: Continued Improvement in the Profitability of Coal-to-Methanol in China in July 2025 - Coal-to-methanol accounts for more than 70% of domestic methanol production capacity, and coal prices have a significant impact on methanol costs. As of August 22, the cost of coal-to-methanol in Northwest China was 2249 yuan/ton, with a profit of 156 yuan/ton. The cost in Shandong was 2418 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 13 yuan/ton. The cost in Inner Mongolia was 2336 yuan/ton, with a profit of 69 yuan/ton [85][87]. Chapter 8: Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in the Off-Season in August 2025 - Since the first half of 2025, the demand for methanol-to-olefins (MTO) has shown a fluctuating trend. In the third quarter, domestic olefin demand has weakened, and the off-season continues. As of August 22, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol)-to-olefin devices was 79.30%, and the futures盘面 profit of methanol-to-olefins was -172 yuan/ton. The traditional downstream demand for methanol also remains in the off-season. In the future, the commissioning of new MTO devices and the improvement of downstream demand are expected to increase methanol demand, but competition pressure and the competitiveness of other raw material routes may affect methanol demand [101][102]. Chapter 9: Summary - Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment is relatively warm due to the expected Fed interest rate cuts and the postponement of China-US trade tariff negotiations. From an industrial factor perspective, the weakening cost support, high external import pressure, off-season downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation at ports suggest that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend [119].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月28日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,布伦特10合约涨0.82%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降239.2万桶,汽油及 精炼油库存也录得下降，体现夏季用油高峰尾声需求仍有韧性。布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价俄 鸟和谈僵局相关供应风险的利多影响，在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势，关注旺季因 素支撑过后原油的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜美元波动剧烈，贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元 信用,被解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，中期维持 回调买入多头思路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，市场对经济表现仍偏谨慎，同时等待美国PCE指标，且关注特朗普与美联储独立性间 的博弈，美元指数波动快。国内现铜79585元，精铜消费受多省梳理再生铜补贴政策减停而受益， 现需要时间等待国内废铜报价的博弈调整。今日关注社库，整数关胆力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显现 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - On August 28, Shanghai gold futures closed at 783.22 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.21% and a trading volume of 135,834 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 780.03 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 3.19 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold price was recorded at 3,396.59 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.1% increase, with a morning low of 3,373 USD [4] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that interest rates may decrease at some point, but policymakers need to review upcoming economic data before making decisions regarding a potential rate cut in the September 16-17 meeting [1] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that the country faces direct threats from nuclear submarines, asserting that Venezuela will defend its independence and territorial integrity against foreign threats [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, and dovish comments from the U.S. market have helped gold prices recover, influenced by inflation and economic data affecting rate cut expectations [3] - Recommendations for trading strategies include buying AU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792 to construct a bull spread strategy [5]

Gold - The independence of the Federal Reserve is threatened as President Trump attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to market concerns reflected in the selling of U.S. Treasuries and rising bond yields, particularly in the 30-year Treasury [1] - The risk of stagflation is increasing, with rising long-term bond yields expected to push inflation higher while slowing economic growth [1] - Recent events surrounding Trump's dismissal of a Fed official are unprecedented in U.S. history and are likely to weaken the Fed's independence, which could favor gold prices due to political turmoil and rising rate cut expectations [1] - Technically, gold rebounded from $3320, with potential upward movement towards $3409 or a downward test of support at $3350 if it breaks below $3384 [1] Oil - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels and an expectation of a 1.863 million barrel decrease, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - The end of the U.S. driving season and the reduction in oil inventories help alleviate concerns about oversupply [2] - The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and India is significant, with Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil [2] - Technically, oil prices rebounded from around $63, with a potential upward target of $65 if it breaks above $64.20, while a drop below $63 would lead to a focus on $61.80 support [2] U.S. Dollar Index - New York Fed President Williams indicated that risks are becoming balanced, suggesting potential actions in future Fed meetings, which may hint at rate cuts and increase the likelihood of a weaker dollar [3] - The dollar is influenced by two main factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts and threats to the Fed's independence, which could exacerbate market volatility [3] - Technically, the dollar has been experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, with a downward trend from around 100, currently oscillating between 97.50 and 98.80, indicating a higher probability of further declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a corrective phase since last week, finding support around 42120 and continuing its rebound [5] - The index faces resistance at 43200, and if it breaks this level, it may target the previous high of 43900, while support is noted at 42500 [5] Copper - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, reversing previous gains, and have since maintained low-level fluctuations with weak rebound strength [6] - The resistance level at $4.50 is critical; failure to break above this could lead to a new round of declines [6] - Currently, copper is trading within a range of $4.32 to $4.50, suggesting a trading strategy of shorting at the high and going long at the low until a breakout occurs [6]

Group 1 - The latest LPR in China remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, consistent for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, significantly exceeding the expected 49.5, indicating strong manufacturing recovery [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion MLF operation on August 25, with a net injection of 300 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity [1][6] Group 2 - DeepSeek-V3.1 has been officially released, featuring enhanced agent capabilities and higher efficiency, with an increase in API call prices [2] - The U.S. and EU have reached a new trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products [4] - The U.S. is investigating tariffs on imported furniture, with a decision expected in 50 days [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a consensus against interest rate cuts, with most officials concerned about inflation risks [3] - The U.S. President indicated potential military involvement in Ukraine peacekeeping, while Ukraine plans to purchase $100 billion in military equipment from the U.S. [2][3] Group 4 - Recent data shows a decline in land transaction area and a decrease in housing transaction volume, indicating a weak performance in the real estate sector [9] - The automotive sector maintains high sales levels, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 12.08% and 6.10% respectively in July [10] Group 5 - The agricultural product prices have shown a slight increase, with vegetable prices rising while fruit prices have decreased [14] - The industrial product index has decreased, with coal, oil, aluminum, and cement prices rising, while copper and steel prices have fallen [16] Group 6 - The bond market has seen an increase in credit bond rates, with the 3Y AA+ rate rising by 11 basis points, indicating pressure on the bond market due to increased risk appetite [33][39] - The issuance of government bonds remains high, with a net issuance of 378.74 billion [35]

Group 1: Report Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to heat up, driving precious metal prices to fluctuate at high levels. The market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased due to doubts about the Fed's independence, supporting the safe - haven premium of gold. Silver's trading logic is mainly driven by the future easing expectation, and it is expected to continue the upward trend with the regression logic of the gold - silver ratio [1][8] Group 2: Market Analysis - New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview 11 "very strong" candidates for the Fed Chairman starting next month, and the selection will be announced this fall. The Trump administration is studying a plan to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [1] Group 3: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.68 yuan/gram, closing at 781.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 784.16 yuan/gram, a 0.38% increase from the afternoon closing. The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9300.00 yuan/kilogram, closing at 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 9327 yuan/kilogram, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 27, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.234%, remaining flat from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.623%, also remaining flat [3] Group 5: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On August 27, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions changed by 0 hands. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 192052 hands, a change of 8.75% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands, and short positions changed by - 2 hands. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 447460 hands, a change of - 5.65% from the previous trading day [4] Group 6: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.5 tons, an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15274.7 tons, a decrease of 14.12 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 7: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 740.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 83.95, a change of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 87.79, a change of - 1.49% from the previous trading day [6] Group 8: Fundamental Data - On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27306 kilograms, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 354762 kilograms, a change of 30.65% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8614 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Group 9: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 810 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to continue the upward trend, with the Ag2508 contract oscillating between 9100 yuan/kilogram and 9600 yuan/kilogram. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: Postpone [8]